UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw - January 19th

[bjpenn85]

You're crazy if you don't think Henry Cejudo doesn't have a chance.

He has a chance, but he doesnt have a chance in hell imo

[PaperTrail07]

You're crazy if you don't think Henry Cejudo doesn't have a chance.

[PaperTrail07]

is Te Edwards ready for a brawl with Bermudez? DB seems like a no brainer here at -125......coming off FOUR losses he NEEDS this win....
he could just out-tough Edwards for a win......DB can also get up if taken down so Edwards cant lay on him......closer fight than it SEEMS considering but still think its the right side...

[bjpenn85]

is Te Edwards ready for a brawl with Bermudez? DB seems like a no brainer here at -125......coming off FOUR losses he NEEDS this win....
he could just out-tough Edwards for a win......DB can also get up if taken down so Edwards cant lay on him......closer fight than it SEEMS considering but still think its the right side...

I just hate Bermudez chin, but my opinion after watching tape on Te edwards, was that he doesnt have enough game to stop Bermudez. I arrived at that conclusion after a very brief review as i kind of knew that i cant put any money on Bermudez chin anyway.

Perhaps a split dec victory coming his way this time around after three straight consecutive split dec loss lol?

[PaperTrail07]

I just think its a bit much for Te and that he should be bigger than +120....say +160 ish.....Won easily in contender was was never tested.....got clipped in first UFC fight round 1..shit scramble....ended up with a TD to lay on the guy....then got rocked in round 2 for a TKO loss.......now IMO getting tested even more...big test for +120 Right?? am I off here?.

I just hate Bermudez chin, but my opinion after watching tape on Te edwards, was that he doesnt have enough game to stop Bermudez. I arrived at that conclusion after a very brief review as i kind of knew that i cant put any money on Bermudez chin anyway.

Perhaps a split dec victory coming his way this time around after three straight consecutive split dec loss lol?

[firekillex]

is Te Edwards ready for a brawl with Bermudez? DB seems like a no brainer here at -125......coming off FOUR losses he NEEDS this win....
he could just out-tough Edwards for a win......DB can also get up if taken down so Edwards cant lay on him......closer fight than it SEEMS considering but still think its the right side...

i promised myself id bet on Bermudez again and i have to stick to this... basically his last 4 losses he was better then his opponent but he finds a way to lose everytime... not sure if its his coaches gameplan, mental issues or something but he just doesnt have that winning quality... guys fighting a nobody and is -125 which seems SO tempting but not sure i can bring myself to it

[bjpenn85]

I just think its a bit much for Te and that he should be bigger than +120....say +160 ish.....Won easily in contender was was never tested.....got clipped in first UFC fight round 1..shit scramble....ended up with a TD to lay on the guy....then got rocked in round 2 for a TKO loss.......now IMO getting tested even more...big test for +120 Right?? am I off here?.

Youre not off i think, its more of an educated guess. And thats mostly what were left with if a guy hasnt had 2-3 fight in the ufc. Any guy with decent power is a potential threat, and Te Edwards has power although he has Koed a bunch of bums on the regional circuit.

Im not confident to place money on Bermudez not getting tkoed even by a pretty random inexperienced dude from the regionals.

Im perhaps to cautious, but that worry comes from getting burned plenty full of times. Is that making me overly cautious? Maybe, but thats my 5 cent.

I think the odds are a reflection of that aspect, it doesnt really matter if bermudez is easily winning in all department if he gets tkoed. Then the odds showed that yes, this was the reason why the line was pretty low on Bermudez hes the better fighter but he has a gigantic hole in his arsenal that surpasses hes athtletic gifts and ufc merits.

[Thrilla]

[Hugo de Naranja]

is Te Edwards ready for a brawl with Bermudez? DB seems like a no brainer here at -125......coming off FOUR losses he NEEDS this win....
he could just out-tough Edwards for a win......DB can also get up if taken down so Edwards cant lay on him......closer fight than it SEEMS considering but still think its the right side...

This isn't compelling logic Papes. I can see Bermudez winning this for sure but it will be because his skills are better. He "needed" a win when we was on a three fight losing streak and didn't get it. "Needing" a win does not matter at all and shouldn't be part of capping a fight imo

[UncleChael]

Tj gets taken down by Dominick Cruz. Henry probably has better hands than TJ too tbh..
Yeah messed up my wording in other post.

[bjpenn85]

Tj gets taken down by Dominick Cruz. Henry probably has better hands than TJ too tbh..
Yeah messed up my wording in other post.

Nah i dont agree with any of that. Whole point why cruz gets takedown is that he is a master at setting them up, hes blending, and was pioneer in doing that.

Cejudo doesnt have the best striking all around. Doesnt matter if your boxing is marginally better. TJs movement, punch selection, going from striking to wrestling bla bla is overall better. And thats whats count imo.

[bjpenn85]

Starting to like Glover. I think he will use same strategy as against M.cirkunov.

Dont know if a bet it. I put glover inside dist in a parlay.

[bjpenn85]

Also have Ortix by TKO at 13.50. Ortiz start to rack up wins by TKO after understanding that ufc hates boring grinders. Benavidez bit more chinny than before. Got to play this

[PaperTrail07]

If you remember, we differ on this....you think it does not matter, I do.....Sean Strickland literally said after his last KO....I took more risks bc I needed a W and KO to keep my job LOL....

This isn't compelling logic Papes. I can see Bermudez winning this for sure but it will be because his skills are better. He "needed" a win when we was on a three fight losing streak and didn't get it. "Needing" a win does not matter at all and shouldn't be part of capping a fight imo

[PaperTrail07]

A fighter with his back to the wall usually shows more heart IMO....esp veterans....not that a fighter does not bring his A game every fight....a LOSE AND YOUR CUT.....mentality CAN IMO....add a little fuel to the fire...

This isn't compelling logic Papes. I can see Bermudez winning this for sure but it will be because his skills are better. He "needed" a win when we was on a three fight losing streak and didn't get it. "Needing" a win does not matter at all and shouldn't be part of capping a fight imo

[firekillex]

After Bermudez got KOD by Korean Zombie in a main event he shouldve had the back to the wall mentality ..... but then he lost a split decision to somebody hes much better then in Elkins.... then again he REALLY shouldve had that mentality after getting KOD and losing to somebody imo hes easily better then but losses ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION ... imo Fili has improved but he should win that fight as well..... 1 ko and 2 splits in a row man this guy should have the most fire ever and come in super hot.... nope losses ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION ??????
now hes fighting some barely non UFC fighter who knows with this guy honestly, he finds a way to lose fights he should win, cant trust him, and saying his backs against the wall does nothing , sometimes it would even be worse adding on more stress

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tj gets taken down by Dominick Cruz. Henry probably has better hands than TJ too tbh..
Yeah messed up my wording in other post.

Totally disagree. No one has ever held TJ down and Dillashaw definitely has better striking.

Let’s get some BetPoints cooking.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also have Ortix by TKO at 13.50. Ortiz start to rack up wins by TKO after understanding that ufc hates boring grinders. Benavidez bit more chinny than before. Got to play this

I like this quite a bit too. Think there is a solid value at this price.

[bjpenn85]

I like this quite a bit too. Think there is a solid value at this price.

I knew you also liked this one.

What do you think about the underdogs here?

-Texeira, Cerrone, Sandhagen, Ortiz.

(Texeiria, old and washed up, maybe, still beat cirkunov. Cerrone, old and washed up, maybe, still beating up most dudes. Sandhagen, seems veeeeery god imo. Ortiz can easyily be as as good as benavidez by now @+ 200 or + 275 opener. Horrible line setting. ITS WRRRRRRONG. If i was setting the odds would open up with ortiz at +180)

[UncleChael]

Totally disagree. No one has ever held TJ down and Dillashaw definitely has better striking.

Let’s get some BetPoints cooking.

He got out struck and wrestled by Dominick Cruz. Facts.
Im still living off the Rose Numajunas Bet points, but we will see
And HENRY literally just beat the most successful champion AT HIS OWN game... You're crazy if you don't think Henry has a chance.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I knew you also liked this one.

What do you think about the underdogs here?

-Texeira, Cerrone, Sandhagen, Ortiz.

(Texeiria, old and washed up, maybe, still beat cirkunov. Cerrone, old and washed up, maybe, still beating up most dudes. Sandhagen, seems veeeeery god imo. Ortiz can easyily be as as good as benavidez by now @+ 200 or + 275 opener. Horrible line setting. ITS WRRRRRRONG. If i was setting the odds would open up with ortiz at +180)

I think the value is in Tex though I’m not betting him and I like Cerrone the best of those four.

I like Sandhagen and Ortiz as fighters but don’t think they win here.

[Thrilla]

Totally disagree. No one has ever held TJ down and Dillashaw definitely has better striking.

Let’s get some BetPoints cooking.

He got out struck and wrestled by Dominick Cruz. Facts.
Im still living off the Rose Numajunas Bet points, but we will see
And HENRY literally just beat the most successful champion AT HIS OWN game... You're crazy if you don't think Henry has a chance.

[PaperTrail07]

You kind of steered into my point.....he loses to Te' Edwards, he might as well pack up and leave himself.....I think he knows this....the rest are Big ISH names......and they were SPLITS..... Thanks for the input Fellas..... Appreciated

After Bermudez got KOD by Korean Zombie in a main event he shouldve had the back to the wall mentality ..... but then he lost a split decision to somebody hes much better then in Elkins.... then again he REALLY shouldve had that mentality after getting KOD and losing to somebody imo hes easily better then but losses ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION ... imo Fili has improved but he should win that fight as well..... 1 ko and 2 splits in a row man this guy should have the most fire ever and come in super hot.... nope losses ANOTHER SPLIT DECISION ??????
now hes fighting some barely non UFC fighter who knows with this guy honestly, he finds a way to lose fights he should win, cant trust him, and saying his backs against the wall does nothing , sometimes it would even be worse adding on more stress

[PaperTrail07]

On Tex as well....

I think the value is in Tex though I’m not betting him and I like Cerrone the best of those four.

I like Sandhagen and Ortiz as fighters but don’t think they win here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Unc

T.J. has been taken down a grand total of 5 times in his career. For those 5 times he was controlled for a total of 39 seconds and an average of less than 8 seconds per TD. If Cejudo, Lays and Prays here, he’d be the first person to have success with that game plan in Dillashaw’s 15 UFC fights.

Also, Dillashaw landed more Total Strikes than Cruz and also did all of the damage in that fight. I scored it 48-47 Dillashaw.

How many BetPoints are we going?

[UncleChael]

@Unc

T.J. has been taken down a grand total of 5 times in his career. For those 5 times he was controlled for a total of 39 seconds and an average of less than 8 seconds per TD. If Cejudo, Lays and Prays here, he’d be the first person to have success with that game plan in Dillashaw’s 15 UFC fights.

Also, Dillashaw landed more Total Strikes than Cruz and also did all of the damage in that fight. I scored it 48-47 Dillashaw.

How many BetPoints are we going?

Did you take Cody G over TJ in the first fight? #lost

[Hugo de Naranja]

Did you take Cody G over TJ in the first fight? #lost

Lol

I did. Then I bet TJ in the rematch. Obviously Garbrandt vs. Dillashaw is a totally different style matchup.

[UncleChael]

Tell 'em Uncle Chael sent ya.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tell 'em Uncle Chael sent ya.

You still haven't answered my question.

How many BetPoints we going?

[Thor4140]

Totally disagree. No one has ever held TJ down and Dillashaw definitely has better striking.

Let’s get some BetPoints cooking.

Henry did absolutely nothing with his takedowns with DJ. Him taking the belt like that off of a guy who held it so long to me is kinda embarrassing and i bet Henry. I doubt he does anything with a takedown against Dillashaw.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Henry did absolutely nothing with his takedowns with DJ. Him taking the belt like that off of a guy who held it so long to me is kinda embarrassing and i bet Henry. I doubt he does anything with a takedown against Dillashaw.

Yeah he did literally no damage against DJ. Thought DJ edged it 3-2.

[Thor4140]

Yeah he did literally no damage against DJ. Thought DJ edged it 3-2.

In the beginning i thought the only way he loses this fight is if the weight cut effects him. Than a video comes out where he doesn’t look to good of course a day after i make my bet and now i have a shitty line. TJ tho trains so smart and has a great people around him and takes this so seriously when u hear him talk i have no problem with his weight cut. He was on some mma show today, the one with Meisha Tate and he is all about science of the body and throw in i love guys that watch film (Woodley and Jones for example). I forgot TJ was so in tune with his training or i would have never been worried in the first place. TJ so smart the fuker is prolly betting on himself and wanted a better line lol. He laughed about the video that came out.

[Thor4140]

Another thing that will worry me greatly about TJ is if Insanity Check comes in here and tells us that there is some kind of bad bacteria floating around near his gym so buyer beware.

[Hugo de Naranja]

In the beginning i thought the only way he loses this fight is if the weight cut effects him. Than a video comes out where he doesn’t look to good of course a day after i make my bet and now i have a shitty line. TJ tho trains so smart and has a great people around him and takes this so seriously when u hear him talk i have no problem with his weight cut. He was on some mma show today, the one with Meisha Tate and he is all about science of the body and throw in i love guys that watch film (Woodley and Jones for example). I forgot TJ was so in tune with his training or i would have never been worried in the first place. TJ so smart the fuker is prolly betting on himself and wanted a better line lol. He laughed about the video that came out.

Good points for sure. This cut will be difficult for TJ but I think his skills (especially in the standup) are significantly better.

[Thor4140]

Good points for sure. This cut will be difficult for TJ but I think his skills (especially in the standup) are significantly better.

He said he is at 138 right now and real happy with it. I remember i heard him once say that he likes to train at the weight he fights. What he meant is that when he fights at 135 he usually comes in at say 148. He says he will train at 148 to get the maximum of his training. The guy has skills and is a thinker. A nice combination to have.