UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders (February 03, 2018)

[Shagdogy]

Wow that is some awful view of the fight lol. Even that one though, he's landing a combination and the guys hands are at his side (pro debut). The thing is Alexander Volkov is a MUCH better striker than this kid will ever be more than likely and he couldn't handle him for the first 2 rounds. Big play Shaggy?

No. Right now it's no play at all. I'm just trying to caution you not to have too much confidence on anything relating to Golm (for or against) since we haven't seen it with our own eyes yet.

Also, I feel like Volkov cracked Johnson early and was hurting him in the 1st before he got caught with the big uppercut and dropped. Doesn't mean Golm will do it but I do think prior to getting rocked Volkov was landing some nice strikes.

[Shagdogy]

I have zero bets on this card so far. I set a goal of +2u per card and I'm ahead of pace right now for the year (it's early) so I'm not looking to force anything. At the moment I'm thinking I'll either play a few two way parlays at slightly plus money and hope to hit more than I lose, or I may just play one decent prop and call it a day. I'm high on Figueiredo/Morales won't go to decision. There's a chance my book never opens that prop though.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Eryk Anders Misses Weight

[TPowell]

No. Right now it's no play at all. I'm just trying to caution you not to have too much confidence on anything relating to Golm (for or against) since we haven't seen it with our own eyes yet.

Also, I feel like Volkov cracked Johnson early and was hurting him in the 1st before he got caught with the big uppercut and dropped. Doesn't mean Golm will do it but I do think prior to getting rocked Volkov was landing some nice strikes.

Fair point there but volkov is a stud striker. I only have 1.5 units on Johnson total and another on the over 1.5 rounds because it's hw but I don't see how you can lay money with golm here

[TPowell]

Glad I didn't play green. Of course prazres misses weight by 5 pounds. Munhoz missed badly as well

[KingHawkins]

Small plays I put in last night.
Anthony Smith going to be a NO PLAY for me after all.
Feeling like a big play on Alcantara may be in order if I can find myself a better line. Pinny has him +110 but I am being offered -110 at my square book so going to hold off until closer to fight time.



STRAIGHT WAGER02/02/18 00:01 EST
Bet $ 75.00 to win $ 75.00Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 125 - Maia Stevenson vs Polyana Viana - Round Prop
Over vs Under02/03/18 19:00 EST
Under 2.5 (even)

STRAIGHT WAGER02/01/18 23:49 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 175.00Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 125 - Pera Brazil
Sergio Moraes vs Tim Means02/03/18 20:00 EST
Sergio Moraes +175


FUTURE WAGER02/01/18 23:49 EST
Bet $ 50.00 to win $ 80.00Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 125- Cachoeira vs Shevchenko - Final Result
Shevchenko by Decision02/03/18 22:00 EST
+160

[TPowell]

Adding sprinkles on the Patrick fight

Hadz by Dec at +565
Hadz in r3 at +1400

[Thor4140]

Not sure what the UFC is doing here. I just couldn't wait for this card before the superbowl. It always got the weekend going. Now the card is turning worst each year. They say the ratings are down going into the contract talks with Fox. Why throw out a shit card like this? This won't bring in any new viewers. Machida was a headliner five years ago. This is a perfect time to have a big card.

[Shagdogy]

I was starting to think Green could use his length/distance to stay away from Prazeres's TD threat and win on the feet. Does Prazeres's weight change that? I'm not so sure. I think Green has a shot.

[Wohlford]

Dodson/Munhoz is off because the fighter hotel had no hot water. https://twitter.com/bokamotoESPN/sta...33530609954816

Lucky for me since I was probably the last person to bet Munhoz +140 before the started climbing.

[TPowell]

The UFC is so ridiculous. Dodson comes in and makes weight, his opponent misses by 4+ pounds and has a PED record already and the UFC won't give the guy anything? No show money, no Reebok money, no nothing?

[TPowell]

I was starting to think Green could use his length/distance to stay away from Prazeres's TD threat and win on the feet. Does Prazeres's weight change that? I'm not so sure. I think Green has a shot.

Green was at 145 for half his career... I think I'm changing my ToutMaster pick to Michel now honestly. I don't see how Green can stop the TD if he's outweighed by 15 pounds like he probably will be

[Shagdogy]

Green was at 145 for half his career... I think I'm changing my ToutMaster pick to Michel now honestly. I don't see how Green can stop the TD if he's outweighed by 15 pounds like he probably will be

Yeah I can't really decide. I never thought Green would fight off these TDs with his strength anyway. I figure if he keeps it standing it will be thanks to his length, distance control, and footwork primarily. He can play the matador and keep Prazeres from getting in anywhere near his hips. i agree, if Prazeres gets in deep, Green is going down. But I would have thought that even if Prazeres made weight, so I just don't think this changes anything for me.

[TPowell]

I'm not sure Green can hurt Prazeres enough to do anything on the cards though. I'm passing because I think Green is a much better wrestler than anything he's faced but still

[MMANick]

One of my favorite plays on the card was Dodson...

[TPowell]

One of my favorite plays on the card was Dodson...

Mine too by DEC

[Shagdogy]

I'm not sure Green can hurt Prazeres enough to do anything on the cards though. I'm passing because I think Green is a much better wrestler than anything he's faced but still

Right, he doesn't have any power. But he still should be able to land many more strikes if he is able to dictate the range. We'll see. I know I'm rooting for him after this BS with Prazeres yet again.

[Shagdogy]

I still have ZERO bets for this card... just can't find a betting angle I really like. The only one is Fig/Moraes won't go to decision but my book may never put that prop up and even still, I had a very bad record with prop bets last year so I've been avoiding them.

Maybe a few 2 fight parlays but I'm getting the feeling that this is gonna be one of those nights we walk away from happy if we just don't lose our asses on the night. Donno why but I'm just expecting a few of strange or unexpected outcomes. If it's Machida, Smith, or Moraes there's gonna be a lot of upset folks around here.

[TPowell]

Right, he doesn't have any power. But he still should be able to land many more strikes if he is able to dictate the range. We'll see. I know I'm rooting for him after this BS with Prazeres yet again.

Same here but volume striker versus a wrestler that is literally a class bigger is a recipe for disaster IMO. I don't think I can play it though as Prazeres competition hasn't really been that good in this winning streak

[TPowell]

I still have ZERO bets for this card... just can't find a betting angle I really like. The only one is Fig/Moraes won't go to decision but my book may never put that prop up and even still, I had a very bad record with prop bets last year so I've been avoiding them.

Maybe a few 2 fight parlays but I'm getting the feeling that this is gonna be one of those nights we walk away from happy if we just don't lose our asses on the night. Donno why but I'm just expecting a few of strange or unexpected outcomes. If it's Machida, Smith, or Moraes there's gonna be a lot of upset folks around here.

Take a look at Vera NO CARDS

[Shagdogy]

Same here but volume striker versus a wrestler that is literally a class bigger is a recipe for disaster IMO. I don't think I can play it though as Prazeres competition hasn't really been that good in this winning streak

Yeah it's a no play for sure. For ToutMaster it's a tough call. Prob gonna go with Green. Got off to a hot start there. Sitting in 7th right now.

[Shagdogy]

Take a look at Vera NO CARDS

I get a pretty limited selection of props. What's "no cards"? Is that scorecards = no action?

[TPowell]

I get a pretty limited selection of props. What's "no cards"? Is that scorecards = no action?

Yep it is. I LOVE Vera's durability and with his striking improving like it is... he could easily hold his own on the feet and get this to the ground where he can dominate

[Shagdogy]

Yep it is. I LOVE Vera's durability and with his striking improving like it is... he could easily hold his own on the feet and get this to the ground where he can dominate

I favor Andrade in this one slightly. I think he wins the standup exchanges pretty clearly. Vera's hands just aren't where they need to be and I don't think his kicks will keep Andrade at bay. I think Andrade could land that long lead hook of his often. I also think there's a good chance Andrade's TDD outdoes Vera's TDs. I'm not very impressed with Vera's ability to take the fight to the mat. His durability is excellent though, so there could be opportunities for him late in the fight if Andrade gasses but he has generally had a decent tank.

It's a slight lean. Likely won't bet it, but I think Andrade can edge out the decision at home in Brazil.

[TPowell]

I need that fight to go the distance in a couple of parlays (NOT Andrade by TKO and the OVER 2.5). I feel pretty good about it unless Vera subs him

[JC2008]

I still have ZERO bets for this card... just can't find a betting angle I really like. The only one is Fig/Moraes won't go to decision but my book may never put that prop up and even still, I had a very bad record with prop bets last year so I've been avoiding them.

Maybe a few 2 fight parlays but I'm getting the feeling that this is gonna be one of those nights we walk away from happy if we just don't lose our asses on the night. Donno why but I'm just expecting a few of strange or unexpected outcomes. If it's Machida, Smith, or Moraes there's gonna be a lot of upset folks around here.

This IS MMA. When in doubt - take the underdog or pass.

[Sanity Check]

can't find a betting angle I really like. expecting a few of strange or unexpected outcomes.

+1

Who does every1 have winning the superbowl this sunday?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Same here but volume striker versus a wrestler that is literally a class bigger is a recipe for disaster IMO. I don't think I can play it though as Prazeres competition hasn't really been that good in this winning streak

Green is not really a volume striker. I think he's more of a wrestler with a mid to low volume striking game.

[TPowell]

Green is not really a volume striker. I think he's more of a wrestler with a mid to low volume striking game.

He'll have to win with volume was more my point though. He doesn't really have much power in his hands at 155 and he isn't much of a sub threat so he has to rely on getting a tight decision in Trator's literal hometown.

[TPowell]

Had to add a unit on Hadzovic ML at +210. He's easily the better striker by a mile in this fight and you can't argue that his cardio is light years better (can go a hard 3 grappling or striking) and he has more heart than Patrick. Patrick has to make this fight an absolute borefest to have a shot, which could certainly happen. He took Damien Brown and Stevie Ray down 5 times and won the fight. Of course, Damien Brown is one of the worst guys at LW in the UFC and Ray's TDD is notoriously awful. The other part of this fight is that Patrick's cardio is really bad. He could easily win round one doing this but in round two, it'll be twice as hard to win the round with that strategy and Hadzovic's cardio. Watch the Martin Delaney fight. It is literally how I see this fight going. Held took him down 4 times but at least 2 of those were caught kicks that I don't think Patrick will be able to pull off. Lastly, Patrick hasn't fought since September of 2016.... that is almost a year and a half. At 34 years old and already poor cardio and questionable heart/desire IMO, I'm very interested to figure out what he has been doing.

[TPowell]

Hopefully some of these ML dogs land (Moraes, Johnson, and now Hadz) but I don't like having a lot of straight bets like these. I have Hadz and Johnson both by decision as well but couldn't decide on Moraes as I think he could outpoint a very drained looking Means lately

[Shagdogy]

So apparently Prazeres weighed in at 161 and he must weigh in at (under?) 161 again when he arrives to the arena or the fight is off. I already felt like Green had an edge in this fight be being able to keep distance and avoid Prazeres's TDs. Now I wonder if this could be worse for Prazeres since he will be keeping his weight low until fight time. So if you were thinking of betting Green you can do so knowing that your bet will be refunded and fight cancelled if Prazeres shows up 180

[BELM0NT]

For some reason I dont trust Shevchenko, her opponent is getting almost ZERO love. UPSET???

[KingHawkins]

Some more small stuff for me. Gonna fire big on Alcantara 5 mins or less before fight.

STRAIGHT WAGER02/03/18 11:47 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 71.43Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 125 - Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm - Round Prop
Over vs Under02/03/18 23:05 EST
Over 1.5 (-140)


STRAIGHT WAGER02/03/18 11:36 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 66.67Result: Pending
UFC Fight Night 125 - Pera Brazil
Joseph Morales vs Deiveson Figueiredo02/03/18 19:35 EST
Deiveson Figueiredo -150



STRAIGHT WAGER02/03/18 11:31 EST
Bet $ 125.00 to win $ 80.65Result: Pending
Total Tweets by Donald Trump on Feb 4th 2018 (Midnight EST to 11:59pm EST)
Over vs Under02/04/18 00:00 EST
Under 5.5 (-155)

[BELM0NT]

I think Santos a fade too, RIGHT??? At least odds seem off