-
Comment -
Told you Calvillo is the play. Calderwood came in and missed weight. She is moving weight classes and a win in this weight class does nothing for her. Calvin coming in hostile territory tonight looking for the killComment -
stevie ray will wax felder. most likely fight of the night thoComment -
I'm having a hard time getting solid leans on this card. Right now I'm looking at Bofando, Willis, Calvillo. I do have a tiny interest in Nash, Craig, and Ponzi as dogs, but not confident in any of em.Comment -
I got a hunch on Mulheron at plus odds...he has more than twice as many fights and is just across the pond from home (UK). Feeling an ABB no no hereComment -
He definitely has the more fluid striking, but he's much smaller, has less power, and it doesn't look like he's ever had to deal with a strong wrestling threat. He gets to stand and trade in every fight. He was showing off some pretty bad cauliflower ear at the weigh ins though so maybe he has spent some time on the mat.Comment -
Calvillo down to -165. What gives? Homers betting their girl?Comment -
Is Justin Willis really +150 on 5dimes right now or is bestfightodds just messing with me??Comment -
Johns is +120 -3.5 decision... yes pleaseComment -
UFC Fight Night 113: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio Picks:
Leslie Smith Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Brett Johns Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Daniel Teymur Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Galore Bofando Round 1 KO (Knees)
Alexandre Pantoja Round 1 Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Bobby Nash Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Justin Willis Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Khalil Rountree Round 1 KO (Punch)
Jack Marshman Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Cynthia Calvillo Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Gunnar Nelson Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)Comment -
UFC Fight Night 113: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Smith vs Lemos (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #2: Johns vs. Morales
Johns -3.5 (+140) 1u
Johns Submission (+1005) .25u
Hedge:
Morales ITD (+591) .5u
Fox Sports 1 Prelims:
Fight #3: Teymur (DEBUT) vs. Henry (DEBUT)
Teymur Round 1 (+250) .5u
Fight #4: Ward vs. Bofando (DEBUT)
Bofando KO/TKO (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Fight #5: Pantoja vs. Seery
Pantoja Submission (+428) .75u
Fight #6: Roberts vs. Nash
Nash ITD (+290) 1.5u
Hedge:
Roberts Decision (+370) .5u
Main Card:
Fight #7: Willis (DEBUT) vs. Mulheron (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #8: Rountree vs. Craig
Rountree Decision (+1310) .25u
Fight #9: Marshman vs. Janes
Marshman+Janes Under 1.5 (+110) 2u
Janes (+450) .5u
Fight #10: Ray vs. Felder
Ray (+114) 1.75u
Hedge:
Felder KO/TKO (+1035) .5u
Note: Ray ML at (+114) comes from an initial bet of 3.3u on Ray (-110) with a 1u buyback of Felder (+155)
Fight #11: Calvillo vs. Calderwood
Calvillo ITD (+164) 1u
Calvillo Decision (+222) 1u
Calvillo Submission (+225) 2u
Calvillo+Calderwood Draw (+7000) .1u
Hedge(s):
Calderwood Decision (+440) 1.5u
Calderwood Round 3 (+1700) .25u
Fight #12: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Nelson ITD (+112) 1u
Nelson Submission (+150) 2u
Nelson Round 2 (+500) .5u
Hedge:
Ponzinibbio Decision (+550) 1u
Straight Parlays:
Johns/Rountree+Craig Under 1.5 (+128) 2u
Teymur/Rountree+Craig Under 1.5 (+132) 1u
Craig/Ray/Calderwood (+2830) .5u
Prop Parlays:
Willis/Rountree/Marshman+Janes U1.5 (+372) .5u
Bofando/Panoja -3.5/Nash +3.5 (+402) .5u
Ray Decision/Calvillo+Calderwood WGD/Nelson+Ponzinibbio WSR3 (+793) .25u
Smith -3.5/Johns -3.5/Teymur -3.5 (+806) .25u
Nash/Ponzinibbio ITD (+1313) .25u
Roberts Decision/Calvillo Decision (+1414) .25u
Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+140) 1.25u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+375) .5u
Ray+Felder FOTN (+550) .25u
Roberts+Nash FOTN (+750) .75u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1087) .25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3950) .1u
Multi-Event Parlays:
Jinh Yu/Nelson (+116) 1uLast edited by Hugo de Naranja; 07-16-17, 10:57 AM.Comment -
Bofando -215, 4u
Willis -193, 2u
Teymur -183, 2u
Calvillo/Johns-Morales o2.5, +100, 2u
That's probably gonna be it. Wanted some dog action on either Craig, Janes, or Nash but my book was offering the worst lines on all of them. Still doesn't have props up so I can't even take a stab at Nash by TKO.Comment -
I made a wide variety of whacky bets and hedges. But my main bets are: Smith, Bofando, Willis, Rountree, Calvillo. If 4 out of 5 of those win, I will have a profitable day.Comment -
First 2 plays
2teamer
Smith/ Johns goes 3
Johns -3.5 decComment -
Pumping for easy view as I'm still trying to cap this event this morning... Final prop plays..MMA mania - Part 1 and 2.. Prelims only..
135 lbs.: Brett Johns vs. Albert Morales
Wales’ Brett Johns (13-0) earned belts in both Cage Warriors and Titan FC before making the jump to the world’s largest fighting organization back in Nov. 2016. “The Pikey” impressed the Belfast crowd with a decision over the gutsy Kwan Ho Kwak, keeping his undefeated record intact.
He owns four wins by submission and another two by (technical) knockout.
Albert Morales (7-1-1) got no softballs in his first two UFC appearances, drawing with Alejandro Perez in his debut before falling to Thomas Almeida two months later. Another quick turnaround saw him face CES champion Andre Soukhamthath at UFC 209 and take a split decision over the heavy-handed UFC debutant.
“The Warrior” steps in for the injured Mitch Gagnon on two weeks’ notice.
Johns vs. Gagnon was a pretty interesting stylistic match up just based on Gagnon’s physicality and prowess with the guillotine. Johns vs. Morales, while not a bad fight by any stretch of the imagination, lacks that sort of intrigue. Though Morales is a dangerous and effective striker, he doesn’t have the toolset to shut down Johns’ relentless takedowns.
And if you can’t stop those, well, you’re not beating Johns.
“The Pikey” is tough enough to take anything Morales can dish out and skilled enough to put him on his back and keep him there whenever he starts to kindle any momentum. Johns grinds his way to a dominant victory.
Prediction: Johns via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Leslie Smith vs. Amanda Lemos
After defeating Rin Nakai, Leslie Smith (9-7-1) stepped up in weight to face Cris Cyborg at UFC 198 and came up short against the Brazilian slugger. Still an underdog, she came up big against Invicta prospect Irene Aldana seven months later and earned “Fight of the Night” in the process.
“The Peacemaker” stands five inches taller than Amands Lemos (6-0-1) at 5’9.”
Lemos dispatched her first five opponents inside the first round, knocking out four and earning the Jungle Fight Bantamweight Championship along the way. A draw with Mayra Cantuaria slowed her rise, but Lemos settled the score with a brutal knee in the third round of their rematch. “Amandinha” replaces Lina Länsberg on less than a month’s notice.
Lemos is definitely a quality signing. She’s got legitimate fight-ending power in her hands and knows how to put her weight behind each strike. That said, I have a hard time picking anyone short of “Cyborg” over Leslie Smith in a brawl and I doubt Lemos has the composure to avoid one.
Compounding the Brazilian’s issues is the massive height disparity. Smith isn’t terribly adept at using it, of course, but she can do damage at range and those long limbs let her dig in ferocious body shots. Lemos simply doesn’t have enough firepower to out-slug Smith and that persistent body work will sap her speed edge soon enough. Expect Lemos to find the mark early with her favored straight right and right high kick before Smith’s size and pressure wear her down.
Prediction: Smith via third-round technical knockout
170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Bobby Nash
England’s Danny Roberts (13-2) entered UFC on the heels of a brutal knockout of “Judo” Jim Wallhead and made an immediate impression with a first-round submission of Nathan Coy. He followed that up with a “Fight of the Night” brawl opposite Dominique Steele, but saw his eight-fight win snapped by the heavy hands of Mike Perry.
“Hot Chocolate” has knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.
Bobby Nash (8-2) squared off against Li Jingliang last January with six consecutive victories under his belt, four of them knockouts. “Nashty” proceeded to put on a terrific war with “The Leech” that ended in the latter’s victory after countless brutal exchanges.
Four of his seven stoppage wins have come in the first round.
The most interesting aspect of this fight may be the respective mindsets. Both men are coming off of brutal knockout losses. Perry and Li hit like trucks, of course, so there’s no real shame in losing to them, but I doubt that’s going to make them feel any better.
All things being equal, Roberts seems like he’s got the edge. He showed against Steele and Perry that he’s both willing and able to wrestle when needed, an aspect of the game that Nash has struggled with before. I’m not sure Nash has an equivalent Plan B, nor am I certain he can apply Perry-esque pressure with his recent loss fresh on his mind. Roberts uses regular takedowns to take the decision.
Prediction: Roberts via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Neil Seery
Alexandre Pantoja’s (17-2) RFA title and submission over LFC champ Damacio Page earned him the top rank on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24, where he reached the semifinals before dropping a decision to Hiromasa Ogikubo as the last Team Cejudo member standing. He went on to face fellow semifinalist Eric Shelton at UFC on FOX 23 and walked away with his tenth consecutive victory.
He has knocked out and submitted seven opponents each during his decade-long professional career.
Luck has not been on the side of Neil Seery (16-2) recently. The Irish slugger was twice booked to fight Ian McCall in a farewell match, only for “Uncle Creepy” to pull out at the last minute the first time due to illness and Seery himself to pull out because of a death in the family the second time.
Seery has been stopped just once since 2009.
“Crafty” is an overused term, but it’s still the best one to describe Seery. He’s deceptively savvy on the feet and excels at exploiting small opportunities in transitions. Where he struggles is against ironclad fundamentals, especially in the wrestling and grappling. Pantoja, unfortunately, has got those in spades. The Brazilian has never been stopped, is nearly a full decade younger, and is downright dangerous on the mat.
Simply put, Pantoja isn’t going to give Seery even the minute openings he needs to work his magic. Strong top control carries Pantoja to his eleventh consecutive pro victory.
Prediction: Pantoja via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Charlie Ward vs. Galore Bofando
The 36-year-old Charlie Ward (3-2) was originally scheduled to debut stateside against Randy Brown at UFC Fight Night 102, but **** issues led him to instead face Abdul Razak Alhassan in Belfast. There would be no triumphant homecoming, as “Judo Thunder” buried him beneath an onslaught of power punches in 53 seconds.
He owns one stoppage victory, the knockout that ultimately ended Joao Carvalho’s life last year.
Galore Bofando (4-2) first hit fans’ radars with his stunning knockout of Wendell Lewis in 2012, one of his three stoppage victories. After his second disqualification loss in October of that year, he returned in Feb. 2015 to knockout Kes Mamba less than halfway into the first round.
This will be his first fight in more than two years.
This fight was not made for those in my line of work. Ward’s got essentially zero footage out there besides the Carvalho disaster and was too busy getting pounded into ground meat by Alhassan to give me any data in his UFC debut. Bofando, meanwhile, has fought just once under mixed martial arts (MMA) rules in almost five years.
As a result, the analysis here won’t be terribly scientific.
Bofando is an incredibly adept range striker, packing a variety of outlandish kicks that would make Raymond Daniels proud, but he’s had issues in the past with those who can close the distance and tie up. Ward, though fragile, has a clear path of victory and the training partners to prepare him for its pursuit. Unless Bofando can land something brutal very quickly, expect Ward to grind him down for a decision win.
Prediction: Ward via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Danny Henry vs. Daniel Teymur
Danny Henry (10-2) made the move to South Africa’s EFC promotion in 2014 and quickly took over its Featherweight division, racking up a 6-1 record. During that span, he won the promotion’s Featherweight title and, last March, regained it by avenging his loss to Igeu Kabesa via first-round submission.
This will be his first fight at Lightweight since 2014.
Daniel Teymur (6-0) — brother of TUF veteran and contender David Teymur — made his professional debut in 2013 with a 92-second knockout and has remained extremely efficient. All six of his professional fights have ended in the first round, three by (technical) knockout and three by submissions.
He trains alongside his brother and other Nordic standouts at Allstars Training Center.
Henry, based on what I can piece together from his highlight reel, is an aggressive and well-rounded finisher with quality power and some issues with dedicated takedown artists. Teymur is reminiscent of his brother, packing quick, powerful hands and strong leg kicks.
I’m leaning toward Teymur. Though he’s not likely to exploit Henry’s takedown troubles, his edge in speed and fluidity looks dramatic. There’s also Henry’s long run at Featherweight to consider — Teymur will almost certainly be the biggest hitter he’s faced in some time. And while Teymur has a team of great fighters to prepare him for Henry’s style, the opposite may not be true. Teymur tags him early for the finish.
Prediction: Teymur via first-round technical knockout
Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record for 2017: 82-43 (1 NC)Comment -
Not a bet but Marshman by sub is +1300 he's not bad on the mat and should handle this dipshit anywhereComment -
^^^Hugo I tailed a few of your plays, the fights I was on the fence with.. Thanks for posting pending..
Comment -
Been a while since hitting a nice parlay... As of now I'm not playing large on anything but I made these two parlays last night:
$40.00 $319.14 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 7/16/17 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Daniel Teymur -190* vs Danny Henry Pending 7/16/17 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1131 Calvillo wins by submission +158* vs Any other result Pending 7/16/17 3:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1437 Rountree / Craig starts round 2 +128* vs Fight won’t start round 2
$11.45 $786.42 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 7/16/17 3:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 James Mulheron +160* vs Justin Willis Pending 7/16/17 4:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1207 Ray wins by 3 round decision +119* vs Not Ray by 3 round decision Pending 7/16/17 2:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1629 Nash wins by TKO/KO +480* vs Any other result Pending 7/16/17 2:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1711 Pantoja wins by 3 round decision +111* vs Not Pantoja by 3 round decision
Good Luck and Enjoy
Comment -
OK here we go..
My plays -
1) Leslie Smith straight/hedged Lemos KO ins only
2) Johns Dec/Johns Sub
3) Teymur ITD
4) Bufando KO/ Ward Dec ins only
5) Pantaja sub
6) Nash/ Roberts fight won't go the distance/Nash ITD
7) Willis KO
8) Roundtree dec/hedged Craig sub
9) Marsh KO/Janes Sub ins only
10) Stevie Ray by dec/ Hedged Felder KO
11) Cavillo ITD/Calderwood Dec.. Small stuff on both..
12) Ponz dec/ hedged Nelson sub
GL fellas that's all I got.. Never that confident with these UK events just for the record.. Hoping for the best...
Comment -
Lemos seems tired alreadyComment -
Did 5dimes take Lemos/Smith down? Was going to put something on that but got an error message saying it was removed when I tried.
Nevermind, guess the event started lolComment -
Lemos gassing already?Comment
