UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio (July 16, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

Cant slip anything past Hugo Tho .....Craig also used strikes OK and moved in for the TD..Pedro was just too strong....and was throwing Knees at him....Craig could tie up with Roundtree IMO and not be in immediate danger like he was w pedro..

[turbozed]

Yup.... Liking all the favorites myself.. Better value then expected with Campos IMO...

Why do you like Campos here? Campos plants his feet, stands and trade. This is not a good style against Girtz who seems to have both better power and chin. Girtz probably has better wrestling too (or at least takedowns). I guess some think Girtz is not as good anymore after ACL surgery and dropping his last two. But one loss was to Piccolotti who fought him perfectly staying out of range (something Campos doesn't appear to be able to do) and the other guy was a big welterweight that weighed like 15-20 lbs more than him. BTW, that guy couldn't even make weight. Catchweight was 174 lbs (Girtz was 166 lbs). Only concern for me for Girtz is whether he's been having persistent issues with the knee injury. Also he's taking the fight on 3 weeks notice. I haven't seen their first fight but was a close fight apparently.

Also, Girtz says that he was ready for a fight because he was Gaethje's main training partner and was in camp with him preparing Gaethje for the Johnson fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cant slip anything past Hugo Tho .....Craig also used strikes OK and moved in for the TD..Pedro was just too strong....and was throwing Knees at him....Craig could tie up with Roundtree IMO and not be in immediate danger like he was w pedro..

http://i.imgur.com/vztc6Bw.gif

[PaperTrail07]

http://i.imgur.com/vztc6Bw.gif

[GoBlue77]

Calvillo

$1200 straight

[GoBlue77]

Honestly Cavillo should ROLL Calderwood LOL.....Might go HEAVY

same thoughts. was waiting for this matchup. calderwood is waiting to join the other weight class. she has one foot out the door already

[PaperTrail07]

100% BLUE Glad to see I'm not the only one who see's a huge mismatch in skill and strike volume...

[Hugo de Naranja]

100% BLUE Glad to see I'm not the only one who see's a huge mismatch in skill and strike volume...

I like Calvillo here but I'm not sure it's a huge mismatch in striking volume. Calderwood lands 6.92 SS/min compared to 3.69 SS/min for Calvillo. I just don't think Calderwood can keep it on the feet and avoid being submitted

[PaperTrail07]

Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...

Do you think that if the fight is 100% on the feet, Calvillo wins a decision by volume?

[turbozed]

Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...

I agree with you here. Calvillo is there to be hit, but not by Calderwood's slow punches. She can land on stationary targets like Courtney Casey, but Calvillo's active and lateral movement probably means she only lands kicks at range but whiffs on punches. At closer range, I don't think she can prevent a clinch. The question is whether or not she can prevent a takedown. Calvillo doesn't seem to have any powerful takedowns and the fight goes to the ground moreso by circumstance. If Calderwood can keep it standing, it might be closer because of the volume. If Calvillo has the better striking, then JoJo has no chance whatsoever.

[PaperTrail07]

I mean 100% feet.....I would still say yes....but if this fight ended and I knew it never went to the ground---no I wouldn't be as confident LOL...

Do you think that if the fight is 100% on the feet, Calvillo wins a decision by volume?

[PaperTrail07]

Agree.....calder will be flat footed in comparison...those front leg kicks wont do shit and her punches will all be slow counters w cavillo pushing the action.....

I agree with you here. Calvillo is there to be hit, but not by Calderwood's slow punches. She can land on stationary targets like Courtney Casey, but Calvillo's active and lateral movement probably means she only lands kicks at range but whiffs on punches. At closer range, I don't think she can prevent a clinch. The question is whether or not she can prevent a takedown. Calvillo doesn't seem to have any powerful takedowns and the fight goes to the ground moreso by circumstance. If Calderwood can keep it standing, it might be closer because of the volume. If Calvillo has the better striking, then JoJo has no chance whatsoever.

[PaperTrail07]

Lines moving in Ray's Direction....don't get it LOL....

Parlay the almost guaranteed OVERS. Why didn't Ray impress me? Zero killer instinct. Thought with how tired Joe was should be able to finish. Also this Lemos girl has literally fought cans w 1 fight almost all 6 of her fights. Leslie should win and just looked good against Aldana who was suppose to be the better striker. Hopefully that fight is set at 1.5. Need to get to my computer to check line.

[turbozed]

BTW, Calderwood has been training at Tristar with Zahabi. I don't think this is going to make her a better grappler overnight, but might mean that we see some different gameplanning from her this fight.

[Shagdogy]

BTW, Calderwood has been training at Tristar with Zahabi. I don't think this is going to make her a better grappler overnight, but might mean that we see some different gameplanning from her this fight.

She would be stupid to grapple willingly with Calvillo. Never seen that girl lose position in a scramble. She's solid and has great instincts in grappling. Also much faster and more creative than her opponents. I have not been impressed with Calvillo's striking, but I think it could be enough. She wins either way but I'd love to see her get it to the ground and end it.

[JIBBBY]

Why do you like Campos here? Campos plants his feet, stands and trade. This is not a good style against Girtz who seems to have both better power and chin. Girtz probably has better wrestling too (or at least takedowns). I guess some think Girtz is not as good anymore after ACL surgery and dropping his last two. But one loss was to Piccolotti who fought him perfectly staying out of range (something Campos doesn't appear to be able to do) and the other guy was a big welterweight that weighed like 15-20 lbs more than him. BTW, that guy couldn't even make weight. Catchweight was 174 lbs (Girtz was 166 lbs). Only concern for me for Girtz is whether he's been having persistent issues with the knee injury. Also he's taking the fight on 3 weeks notice. I haven't seen their first fight but was a close fight apparently.

Also, Girtz says that he was ready for a fight because he was Gaethje's main training partner and was in camp with him preparing Gaethje for the Johnson fight.

Derek Campos winner of 3 straight, Girtz loser of 2 straight.. Brandon Gritz knocked out Campos 2 years ago and don't think he can do it again in the rematch.. Campos got better and I'm not so sure Girtz has in the last 2 years..

Not super confident but I do think Derek Campos is more skilled and will show better in the rematch.... We'll see??? I got Campos winning by decision in this rematch..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derek-Campos-42543

Both fighters have knack for going to decision in recent fights.. Dereck Campos fights more cautious in this one I believe he wins on points.. In for a small fifty spot..

$50.00

$120.50

Pending

7/14/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3011 Campos wins by 3 round decision +241* vs Not Campos by 3 round decision

Brandon Girtz vs Derek Campos - Catchweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
Fri 7/14		3003 Girtz / Campos goes 3 round distance		-165
10:30PM		3004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+125
Fri 7/14		3005 Girtz wins inside distance		+469
10:30PM		3006 Not Girtz inside distance		-805
Fri 7/14		3007 Girtz wins by 3 round decision		+177
10:30PM		3008 Not Girtz by 3 round decision		-250
Fri 7/14		3009 Campos wins inside distance		+220
10:30PM		3010 Not Campos inside distance		-300
Fri 7/14		3011 Campos wins by 3 round decision		+241
10:30PM		3012 Not Campos by 3 round decision		-322
Fri 7/14		3013 Girtz / Campos draw		+5000
10:30PM		3014 Fight not a draw		-12500
Steve Garcia Jr vs Joe Warren - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
Fri 7/14		3103 Garcia / Warren goes 3 round distance		-165
10:00PM		3104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+125
Fri 7/14		3105 Garcia wins inside distance		+354
10:00PM		3106 Not Garcia inside distance		-545
Fri 7/14		3107 Garcia wins by 3 round decision		+380
10:00PM		3108 Not Garcia by 3 round decision		-570
Fri 7/14		3109 Warren wins inside distance		+279
10:00PM		3110 Not Warren inside distance		-399
Fri 7/14		3111 Warren wins by 3 round decision		+105
10:00PM		3112 Not Warren by 3 round decision		-145
Fri 7/14		3113 Garcia / Warren draw		+5500
10:00PM		3114 Fight not a draw		-13500
Kendall Grove vs John Salter - Middleweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
Fri 7/14		3203 Grove / Salter goes 3 round distance		+160
9:30PM		3204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		-210
Fri 7/14		3205 Grove wins inside distance		+442
9:30PM		3206 Not Grove inside distance		-725
Fri 7/14		3207 Grove wins by 3 round decision		+458
9:30PM		3208 Not Grove by 3 round decision		-772
Fri 7/14		3209 Salter wins inside distance		-110
9:30PM		3210 Not Salter inside distance		-130
Fri 7/14		3211 Salter wins by 3 round decision		+285
9:30PM		3212 Not Salter by 3 round decision		-405
Fri 7/14		3213 Grove / Salter draw		+4500
9:30PM		3214 Fight not a draw		-11000
Jessica Middleton vs Emily Ducote - Flyweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
Fri 7/14		3303 Middleton / Ducote goes 3 round distance		-185
9:00PM		3304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+145
Fri 7/14		3305 Middleton wins inside distance		+910
9:00PM		3306 Not Middleton inside distance		-1860
Fri 7/14		3307 Middleton wins by 3 round decision		+280
9:00PM		3308 Not Middleton by 3 round decision		-400
Fri 7/14		3309 Ducote wins inside distance		+155
9:00PM		3310 Not Ducote inside distance		-195
Fri 7/14		3311 Ducote wins by 3 round decision		+135
9:00PM		3312 Not Ducote by 3 round decision		-175
Fri 7/14		3313 Middleton / Ducote draw		+5500
9:00PM		3314 Fight not a draw		-13500

[Shagdogy]

I'm not in love with his skills but anyone else think Bobby Nash can bully Danny Roberts?

[Shagdogy]

Eh tough fight to call actually. Jingliang needed his well known toughness to weather the first round and a half vs. Nash. Danny Roberts has a decent chin in that he won't get flash KO'd, but he doesn't take punches as well as Jingliang, that's for sure. That said, Nash is hittable. Too hittable, and Roberts throws that left hand with high volume. This fight could be a brawl.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Eh tough fight to call actually. Jingliang needed his well known toughness to weather the first round and a half vs. Nash. Danny Roberts has a decent chin in that he won't get flash KO'd, but he doesn't take punches as well as Jingliang, that's for sure. That said, Nash is hittable. Too hittable, and Roberts throws that left hand with high volume. This fight could be a brawl.

I put 1u on Nash ITD (+262). Think he hits hard as hell and that this fight will look a lot like Roberts vs. Perry where both guys are landing big shots until someone goes down.

[Shagdogy]

I put 1u on Nash ITD (+262). Think he hits hard as hell and that this fight will look a lot like Roberts vs. Perry where both guys are landing big shots until someone goes down.

Yeah, probably not a bad play.

[Rich Benjamins]

Could be Paper. I've got some crazy bets flying around this weekend. I could win a lot and get lucky, or get my ass handed to me. Good luck

I just don't think your giving Pedro enough credit......To be fair he was winning before the arm bar....Lets not forget pedro put down rountree with ease also...

[/QUOTE]

[Shagdogy]

James Mulheron vs. Justin Willis: Willis is a very big heavyweight (cuts to 265) who is training at AKA. Hard to see a lot from him but he seems to pressure, clinch, takedown. Seen him pick a guy up and slam him, and also saw a crafty trip takedown out of him. AKA is a solid wrestling camp. Meanwhile, Mulheron has fought entirely in England. He's built like Roy Nelson and fights a strictly kickboxing style. It looks like he has literally never had to worry about a legit takedown threat. In every single fight I've seen of his, he is able to stand right in front of guys, get loose, and just throw without even thinking about being taken down. This will NOT be the case vs. Willis. In Mulheron's most recent fight vs. Geraint Hill (on youtube), his opponent was such trash that he could just stand in front of him loose as could be and do whatever he wanted. Hill had absolutely nothing. Does Mulheron have an answer for wrestling? I doubt it. Especially being undersized in this match. I think Willis throws him to the ground and goes to work. Mulheron's only chance is to weather the storm, get Willis to gas, and then stand in front of him and kickbox. I don't see it happening. Willis should dictate this entire fight. Easy stoppage or decision victory.

Edit: Willis's striking defense is pretty poor, but he will definitely pressure and close the distance on Mulheron's best strikes. I finally scoped Willis's 2nd to last fight (still can't find his fight vs. Coutinho) and the striking D is just sloppy. Something to consider. I'm still going to play him.

[Shagdogy]

I just don't think your giving Pedro enough credit......To be fair he was winning before the arm bar....Lets not forget pedro put down rountree with ease also...

[/QUOTE]
I will second this. Pedro is a guy to keep an eye on. He's legit.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, probably not a bad play.

Moved all the way up to (+345). Adding .5u at that price

[turbozed]

Damn Girtz and Campos was a good fight. Was anyone's fight but odd doctor stoppage. Nasty cut but unsatisfying ending.

[Shagdogy]

Moved all the way up to (+345). Adding .5u at that price

Hate my book. Doesn't offer ITD, just win by TKO or sub but not ITD in general. Also doesn't release props until way late after they've tightened up the lines.

On the plus side, don't need to load my account. No tying up money.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Damn Girtz and Campos was a good fight. Was anyone's fight but odd doctor stoppage. Nasty cut but unsatisfying ending.

Agreed. Very entertaining fight. Not sure why they stopped it after doctor said he wouldn't stop it unless cut got to eyebrow

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hate my book. Doesn't offer ITD, just win by TKO or sub but not ITD in general. Also doesn't release props until way late after they've tightened up the lines.

On the plus side, don't need to load my account. No tying up money.

Gotta get on the 5Dimes train my friend

[Shagdogy]

Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.

[Rich Benjamins]

I see the over is + so it might be worth a bet. But be very careful with overs man. I know a couple people who went broke betting them. Often they're a sucker's bet, for some reason people like to bet them. I prefer unders but usually i just bet who i think will win.

Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.

[Shagdogy]

I see the over is + so it might be worth a bet. But be very careful with overs man. I know a couple people who went broke betting them. Often they're a sucker's bet, for some reason people like to bet them. I prefer unders but usually i just bet who i think will win.

Yup. I'm never as confident on O/U's as I am picking winners so I keep my risk low always. I would put 1u on this and I already have a 4u and 3u straight play going this card. I never hitch my wagon to O/U's and I go multiple cards without playing any.

[Ty$]

Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.

That fights ending fast AF!!! Both guys only have one way to win. Craig has shit cardio.

Fights I like to go 3 rounds
1. Johns/Morales
2. Pantoja/Seery
3. Felder/Ray

Parlay it and call it a day

[Ty$]

Also like Johns -3.5 Dec and Pantoja -3.5 dec... if they get posted... sometimes O\Us are the easiest pick ... like in the Felder fight hence why the juice is so high but in my eyes it might as well be -500 cuz those guys fight 3 rounds 9/10. Sometimes I can't pick a fighter but I can figure how they will fight and the pace. Blaydes/Olmenchrck 1.5 lines makers were Fn smoking rocks!!!

[Ty$]

2 Unders to look at I think are

Marshman fight and Calvillo fight