UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee (June 25, 2017)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FS1, 9:00 pm ET
Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Lee
Tim Boetsch vs Johny Hendricks
Felice Herrig vs Justine Kish
Joachim Christensen vs Dominick Reyes
Alex Garcia vs Tim Means
BJ Penn vs Dennis Siver
Ilir Latifi vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

FS2, 7:00 pm ET
Clay Guida vs Erik Koch
Carla Esparza vs Maryna Moroz
Devin Powell vs Darrell Horcher

UFC Fight Pass 5:30 pm ET
Jared Gordon vs Michel Quinones
Jeremy Kimball vs Josh Stansbury
Johnny Case vs Tony Martin

[firekillex]

Chiesa by sub

[Demonata]

This is the card I'm looking forward to. I really like watching chiesa and dirty bird Means. I also got to cheer for a fellow Swede, go Ilir latifi. Sweden!!!!!!

[PaperTrail07]

[Sanity Check]

Chiesa beat Jim Miller when Miller was suffering from lyme disease & didn't know he had it.

Chiesa's win over Beneil Dariush is also questionable. Dariush had a 1 round gas tank when they fought and won the 1st 10-8.

Both of Chiesa's biggest wins could have been flukes.

[firekillex]

Chiesa beat Jim Miller when Miller was suffering from lyme disease & didn't know he had it.

Chiesa's win over Beneil Dariush is also questionable. Dariush had a 1 round gas tank when they fought and won the 1st 10-8.

Both of Chiesa's biggest wins could have been flukes.

Good thing chiesas best win was over al iaquinta when he choked him out
Guys a beast on the ground and is huge for 55... will come down to Kevin lee being athletic and moving away from takedowns or if chiesa is able to get him down ... I'll go with Chiesa the bigger , technical and more proven guy for me

[firekillex]

Garcia vs means is gonna be fireworks I can't see that going to decision ...
bj penn vs siver for a loser retires ... hopefully bj wins
latifi vs little nog should be fun , lil nog gonna have a huge reach advantage but his chin may be shot
and guida / Koch should be a high paced fun battle as well


solid card

[NUTSonYAchin]

https://youtu.be/mkph7tlmM84

[Sanity Check]

Good thing chiesas best win was over al iaquinta when he choked him out
Guys a beast on the ground and is huge for 55... will come down to Kevin lee being athletic and moving away from takedowns or if chiesa is able to get him down ... I'll go with Chiesa the bigger , technical and more proven guy for me

All 3 of Al Iaquinta's "official" losses are via sub. It might be fair to say Al Iaquinta is "submission challenged" and Michael Chiesa was lucky to fight a guy whose weaknesses aligned perfectly with his strengths when he fought Al in the TUF finals.

Kevin Lee is a good wrestler. His hands are also good with him training out of Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s gym.

I have Kevin Lee winning unless Chiesa catches a dogshit sub in the middle of a scramble.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chiesa is a "dogshit sub" master

[Sanity Check]

Chiesa is a "dogshit sub" master

Recap.

Chiesa subbed a guy battling lyme disease named Jim Miller, see: dogshit. Chiesa would have been murdered by the healthy Jim Miller that fought Dustin Poirier.

Chiesa subbed a submission challenged guy named Al Iaquinta who would murder him if they fought today, see: dogshit.

Chiesa subbed a gased out Beneil Dariush who would murder him if he bothered to train to go 3 rounds, see: dogshit.

Notice a pattern forming here?

Chiesa knows all his wins are BS and he knows he's overrrated. That's why he overreacted to Kevin Lee mentioning his mom.

He's afraid and looking for ways to get out of the fight cuz he knows he's "probably" going to lose.

[firekillex]

youre saying 3 top 15 wins all by finish are dog shit.....
you can bet kevin lee and think hes going to win, but you literally gave 0 reason why kevin lee is better in any facet of mma or his paths to victory and the only thing youre saying how Chiesa beat guys not at 100% when its mma and nobody is ever 100% Chiesa had major injuries in multiple of those victories and he still won??? I would bet my entire bankroll Chiesa doesnt think hes overrated he probably thinks the complete opposite and thinks he championship material like any top 10 fighter in their respective division on the planet earth thinks lol..... hes definitely not scared or think hes going to lose hence he took the fight you just sound like you hate Chiesa and extremely bias. Im not even a huge fan of Chiesa but he can clearly win this matchup and hes clearly beaten higher ranked and better guys then Kevin Lee...

" notice a pattern forming here"
yes he rear naked choked every guy in that 3 man list.... aka a pretty impressive pattern

[NUTSonYAchin]

youre saying 3 top 15 wins all by finish are dog shit.....
you can bet kevin lee and think hes going to win, but you literally gave 0 reason why kevin lee is better in any facet of mma or his paths to victory and the only thing youre saying how Chiesa beat guys not at 100% when its mma and nobody is ever 100% Chiesa had major injuries in multiple of those victories and he still won??? I would bet my entire bankroll Chiesa doesnt think hes overrated he probably thinks the complete opposite and thinks he championship material like any top 10 fighter in their respective division on the planet earth thinks lol..... hes definitely not scared or think hes going to lose hence he took the fight you just sound like you hate Chiesa and extremely bias. Im not even a huge fan of Chiesa but he can clearly win this matchup and hes clearly beaten higher ranked and better guys then Kevin Lee...

" notice a pattern forming here"
yes he rear naked choked every guy in that 3 man list.... aka a pretty impressive pattern

My younger brother has been making fun of Chiesa since TUF and I still can't understand why...every time I see him fight he wins. Sure he looks soft, previously had no takedown defense, has gay hair, and is fighting an explosive, confident, black fighter, but he's gritty and much improved...I honestly think Chiesa wins this fight at least 60% of the time by guess what? RNC! He just has to fight like a Diaz and he'll be fine.

[Sanity Check]

Do people realize Chiesa loses 100% of his fights if he can't get the fight to the ground?

........

[Demonata]

youre saying 3 top 15 wins all by finish are dog shit.....
you can bet kevin lee and think hes going to win, but you literally gave 0 reason why kevin lee is better in any facet of mma or his paths to victory and the only thing youre saying how Chiesa beat guys not at 100% when its mma and nobody is ever 100% Chiesa had major injuries in multiple of those victories and he still won??? I would bet my entire bankroll Chiesa doesnt think hes overrated he probably thinks the complete opposite and thinks he championship material like any top 10 fighter in their respective division on the planet earth thinks lol..... hes definitely not scared or think hes going to lose hence he took the fight you just sound like you hate Chiesa and extremely bias. Im not even a huge fan of Chiesa but he can clearly win this matchup and hes clearly beaten higher ranked and better guys then Kevin Lee...

" notice a pattern forming here"
yes he rear naked choked every guy in that 3 man list.... aka a pretty impressive pattern

Yeah just because a guy doesn't usually stand better doesn't mean he's going to lose. Look at Damian Maia. He loves going to the ground and he does pretty good. Chiesa going to keep choking people out and wrestling better than his opponent like usual. Kevin Lee is not some master takedown defender so I'm 100% sure chiesa can get him to the ground where he will have a huge advantage. He is a master on the ground. Long limbs give him great chances to sub lee

[firekillex]

He has 2 losses in his career.... and one was a bs cut against Lauzon who he'd most likely starch now
guys not even my fav fighter but you give credit when credits due he's a beast on the ground and he's huge for 155... he could easily win this fight and there's value , you're making it out to seem like he has a 10% chance or under lol

[Demonata]

I.am so pumped for this fight card!!!

[bjpenn85]

Probably a crazy and even fight until chiesa catch kevin lee in some transition and choke him out. Theres probably no one who cant withstand his RNC, i thought the end of the line was when he faced dariush due to dariush accolades as a triple bjj world champion.

Im ever so slightly on chiesa by sub for fun. Probably a no bet situation realistically.

[Demonata]

Probably a crazy and even fight until chiesa catch kevin lee in some transition and choke him out. Theres probably no one who cant withstand his RNC, i thought the end of the line was when he faced dariush due to dariush accolades as a triple bjj world champion.

Im ever so slightly on chiesa by sub for fun. Probably a no bet situation realistically.

Yeah I.don't think kevin lees takedown.defense is great too. Chiesa on the ground should keep lee down.

[brooks85]

good weekend for mma, bellator on saturday

parlay time

[firekillex]

hendricks vs boetsch...
boetsch should be the much bigger fighter, but i like how hendricks has looked a bit quicker at 185
i think this goes decision imo, leaning hendricks decision here +135 but there could be value at +300 or more on boetsch decision
guys a natural 205 and fighting a welterweight, will have to look into this fight a bit more though

[bjpenn85]

hendricks vs boetsch...
boetsch should be the much bigger fighter, but i like how hendricks has looked a bit quicker at 185
i think this goes decision imo, leaning hendricks decision here +135 but there could be value at +300 or more on boetsch decision
guys a natural 205 and fighting a welterweight, will have to look into this fight a bit more though

Im also leaning a dec here. Hendricks seems incapable to finish people at the moment + boetsch cant finish hendricks most likely since hendricks has an iron chin. Lombards disappointment was obvious after hitting hendricks flush without even rocking him. I think Hendricks is the one that gets the finish if anything, but again, since he is incapable of finishing anyone, it probably goes to dec. Also 8 out of the 9 last fights have seen hendricks go to dec.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Will have to be careful not to force bets here. Not too many strong leans for me right now.

[mdunlap3]

Actually not too bad for a regular FN. Kinda like Kevin Lee to whoop Chiesa.

[GoBlue77]

all that sh1t talking kevin lee did at the press conference you would have thought he was the champ and his name was conor. that boy better back up his talk. i don't like betting on unathletic guys, chiesa versus athletic guys, lee. we'll see closer to weigh ins.

i think i could whoop dennis siver's ass fresh off my couch. if bj can't win this fuckin retire on the spot please. stop tarnishing your goat status

[bjpenn85]

Agreed. Its a terrible card for betting.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agreed. Its a terrible card for betting.

Should be some fun fights to watch at least.

[JIBBBY]

UFC firing off events by the week now.. I like ...

Kevin Lee for sure.. Kevin Lee is better all around..

Talk about can on can violence.. Hendricks vs Boetsch?? Hmmm??... Leaning Johnny Hendricks but give Tim a chance.. Both fighters are washed up so anything can happen..

[JIBBBY]

Fading BJ Penn big time.. Hope the odds are decent... Dennis Siver by KO will probably be the prop call....

Alot of old washed up fighters on this card..

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC firing off events by the week now.. I like ...

Kevin Lee for sure.. Kevin Lee is better all around..

Talk about can on can violence.. Hendricks vs Boetsch?? Hmmm??... Leaning Johnny Hendricks but give Tim a chance.. Both fighters are washed up so anything can happen..

Hendricks vs. Boetsch looks like a no bet for me. Both bums

[Demonata]

In.chiesa I trust. Cabt wait to win money betting him

[Hugo de Naranja]

I love Chiesa and think he has the second-best Back Take to RNC game in the UFC (Maia 1st) but he loses the first round in EVERY fight. Maybe a live bet in play here. What do you guys think?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lee's Back Take+RNC game is no joke either.

[JIBBBY]

^ You guys are bold to bet against Kevin Lee.. I know Chelsea is a grinder with a very good ground game but Kevin Lee is a stand out wrestler with a good Jits back ground himself..

KEVIN LEE - Kevin Lee gets most of his wins by way of submission himself. He also has 3 finishes in his last 4 UFC fight wins. Hasn't lost in 2 years and has never been sub'd out.. Looks better in each fight.. Has an 8-2 UFC record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Lee-84342

MICHAEL CHIESA - On a 3 fight win streak himself, brings a fast grinding pace to each fight.. Most of his wins are by taking the back and getting the RNC.. He is not strong off bottom with his sub's, no triangle wins since his first MMA pro fight years ago.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-Chiesa-46224

I think Kevin Lee is more athletic, quicker and will hold the wrestling advantage in this match up.. His take downs are top notch in other words and Kevin Lee will be putting Chiesa on his back in this fight.. Probably winning rounds on points..

As long as Kevin Lee doesn't gas late, give up his back and get stopped he should get the win and probably by decision..

Chiesa by sub could be a hedge option if the odds are decent IMO though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ You guys are bold to bet against Kevin Lee.. I know Chelsea is a grinder with a very good ground game but Kevin Lee is a stand out wrestler with a good Jits back ground himself..

KEVIN LEE - Kevin Lee gets most of his wins by way of submission himself. He also has 3 finishes in his last 4 UFC fight wins. Hasn't lost in 2 years and has never been sub'd out.. Looks better in each fight.. Has an 8-2 UFC record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Lee-84342

MICHAEL CHIESA - On a 3 fight win streak himself, brings a fast grinding pace to each fight.. Most of his wins are by taking the back and getting the RNC.. He is not strong off bottom with his sub's, no triangle wins since his first MMA pro fight years ago.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-Chiesa-46224

I think Kevin Lee is more athletic, quicker and will hold the wrestling advantage in this match up.. His take downs are top notch in other words and Kevin Lee will be putting Chiesa on his back in this fight.. Probably winning rounds on points..

As long as Kevin Lee doesn't gas late, give up his back and get stopped he should get the win and probably by decision..

Chiesa by sub could be a hedge option if the odds are decent IMO though..

If you're on Lee you can probably live-bet Chiesa after Lee wins R1. Should be around (+200) to (+250)