UFC on Fox 19: April/16th

[JoshKnows46]

Originally Posted by JoshKnows46
Lotto Ticket Fun:
Ferguson wins by 5 rd split/maj decision +1650*
Chiesa wins by 3 round decision +350
Cormier wins by 5 rd split/maj decision +1030
Belfort wins in round 1 +575
$20 to win $120,113.13



Josh let's pretend Cormier was still fighting Jones and you hit that Parlay. Would they pay that out?

I've been messing around with just picking about a dozen fights and a $100 bet could yield me $65k on 1 scenario. Would 5Dimes actually send you/me a check for that amount?

No reason to believe they wont, but it won't come in one big check like that, there's limits for each method but you can get close to half out if you withdraw by multiple diffrent methods

[Mxs1332]

How can you not love this guy?

[UncleChael]

How can you not love this guy?

Lets penetrating see it. They were already suppose to fight.

[JoshKnows46]

This is sickining, had my heart set on this fight, bummed out

[Thor4140]

give Kalib Dos Anjos. He wants the fight. Im not interested in seeing Cerrone again

[Droz37]

Anyone hear what is going on with Glover Teixeira <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Rashad Evans?

seen that all my bets have been cancelled.

[Deceptakhan]

Same thing here, I had glover at -190 at the opener. It's a 5 rounder now so all previous bets off,lame

[Deceptakhan]

This is sickining, had my heart set on this fight, bummed out

Me too man, fakin heart broken

[JoshKnows46]

Anyone hear what is going on with Glover Teixeira <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Rashad Evans?

seen that all my bets have been cancelled.

My Glover bet was canceled, they made the odds higher on glover, and canceled the previous bets because it's the main event now, and it's a 5 rounder instead of a 3 rounder.

[Droz37]

My Glover bet was canceled, they made the odds higher on glover, and canceled the previous bets because it's the main event now, and it's a 5 rounder instead of a 3 rounder.

Ahh ok, yeah after I posted that I thought about that as a possible reason why they cancelled the bets, lame..... They should give us the option to place a new bet for the 5 round fight at the original odds we locked in at, or at least comparable odds somewhere in between the new odds and the original odds that we had previously locked in at.

w/e..... back to the books.

[jordanft19]

http://www.bjpenn.com/mma-news/khabib-nurmagomedov/khabib-nurmagomedov-books-surprising-opponent-for-ufc-fox-19/

Khabib fighting at ufc fox 19 after all. Wonder if he was scared and avoided Ferguson? LOL

[CaptChaos145]

I know Horcher well. He will be a solid LW in the UFC but Khabib is a tall order. Horcher is a southpaw with good power and he can wrestle.

[JoshKnows46]

Manny Dodson doesn't go 3 round distance +105 $250
Manny Dodson under 2.5 +120 $200
Dodson wins by ko +180 $100
Manny wins by sub +1730 $100

[JoshKnows46]

Ferreira/Bamgbose under 1.5 rds -160/-170/-185/-195 Risking $710 to win $400

[JoshKnows46]

Court/Santiago over 2.5 -175 Risking $875
Ferreira/Bamgbose under 1.5 rds* -185 $185

[JIBBBY]

Manny Dodson doesn't go 3 round distance +105 $250
Manny Dodson under 2.5 +120 $200
Dodson wins by ko +180 $100
Manny wins by sub +1730 $100

I like all those bets except for the Manny by sub.... Dodson is too athletic and slick to get caught in something.. Manny is more likely to get the KO instead if he is gonna win.. He swings for the fences when he throws....

If I were thinking to hedge this fight which I probably won't I would have gone for this.. Odds are still damn good.... Covers the KO and Sub if by miracle either happen..

1805 Gamburyan wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_143" size="4"> +955

[JoshKnows46]

I like all those bets except for the Manny by sub.... Dodson is too athletic and slick to get caught in something.. Manny is more likely to get the KO instead if he is gonna win.. He swings for the fences when he throws....

If I were thinking to hedge this fight which I probably won't I would have gone for this.. Odds are still damn good.... Covers the KO and Sub if by miracle either happen..

1805 Gamburyan wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_143" size="4"> +955

Not a chance in hell manny ko's dodson, way too stiff and slow, not the type of striker that dodson has any problems with, Dodson will destroy him on the feet, manny only has 2 ko's in his career so not sure why you'd think that would be a option against a striker of Dodsons caliber. Manny has excellent leg locks and heel locks, powerful gullitione, ofcourse no one is gonna like the play, that's why it's +1730 jibs, buts it's manny's only path to victory,and it's way over valued imo.

[JIBBBY]

I'm not hedging with Manny at all, I'm confident JD wins this fight.... I think he puts Manny to sleep in this one..

Hedge - Manny hits hard and yes Dodson should see his punches coming from miles away... I don't think Manny can sub or KO Dodson either.. It's a long shot both ways... That's why I said if you must hedge go both ways with KO and Sub.. Both are likely not to happen though...

Sleeeeeeep Mannny

[Ty$]

I'm not hedging with Manny at all, I'm confident JD wins this fight.... I think he puts Manny to sleep in this one..

Hedge - Manny hits hard and yes Dodson should see his punches coming from miles away... I don't think Manny can sub or KO Dodson either.. It's a long shot both ways... That's why I said if you must hedge go both ways with KO and Sub.. Both are likely not to happen though...

Sleeeeeeep Mannny

I agree I wouldn't hedge it either jus roll the dice and hope Dodson does what he does. Only hedge would be Dodson by dec if manny can survive somehow. The fight I would hedge is Rose vsTorres. Im pretty confident in Rose but Torres did dominate the first matchup. Rose has improved hugely though especially her cardio. Maybe hedge Torres by dec. She would have to get the takedown and avoid the sub and grind it out. Jus a thought

[JIBBBY]

The fight I would hedge is Rose vsTorres. Im pretty confident in Rose but Torres did dominate the first matchup. Rose has improved hugely though especially her cardio. Maybe hedge Torres by dec. She would have to get the takedown and avoid the sub and grind it out. Jus a thought

Agreed... That's how I pinned it down..

1331 Namajunas wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_50" name="radiox" type="radio">+250

hedge

1307 Torres wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_38" name="radiox" type="radio">+225

[Ty$]

Agreed... That's how I pinned it down..

1331 Namajunas wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_50" name="radiox" type="radio">+250

hedge

1307 Torres wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_38" name="radiox" type="radio">+225

Maybe even some on Rose by dec

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agreed... That's how I pinned it down..

1331 Namajunas wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_50" name="radiox" type="radio">+250

hedge

1307 Torres wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_38" name="radiox" type="radio">+225

Do you guys think there is any value in Rose KO/TKO? I got it yesterday for a half unit at +1000. I could see her clipping Tecia and ending it with some GnP.

[Droz37]

Do you guys think there is any value in Rose KO/TKO? I got it yesterday for a half unit at +1000. I could see her clipping Tecia and ending it with some GnP.

Considering that Rose hasn't won by TKO/KO since 2012 I think her game is focusing more on her submissions, not saying she can't do it but their last fight together they both were very durable, I don't think Rose has the power to KO/TKO Tecia, there is a chance it might happen but I wouldn't hold my breath, Namajunas by sub or dec is more likely, and as others have stated a hedge for Tecia Torres win by dec is another option that has a high probability to hit. I got more on Namajunas though, i feel like she's gonna have more tools to end the fight especially on the ground, and seeing as this is their second fight against each other I think she wants to show Tecia Torres that her submissions have improved. That's just my 2cents though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Considering that Rose hasn't won by TKO/KO since 2012 I think her game is focusing more on her submissions, not saying she can't do it but their last fight together they both were very durable, I don't think Rose has the power to KO/TKO Tecia, there is a chance it might happen but I wouldn't hold my breath, Namajunas by sub or dec is more likely, and as others have stated a hedge for Tecia Torres win by dec is another option that has a high probability to hit. I got more on Namajunas though, i feel like she's gonna have more tools to end the fight especially on the ground, and seeing as this is their second fight against each other I think she wants to show Tecia Torres that her submissions have improved. That's just my 2cents though.

Yeah I think that analysis is good. KO/TKO is definitely Rose's least likely method of victory but I think it happens more than the odds give credit for. Best play here has got to be Rose outright since she can win anywhere the fight goes whereas Tecia doesn't have the power to finish the fight on the feet and likely won't catch Rose in any subs either.

[JIBBBY]

Considering that Rose hasn't won by TKO/KO since 2012 I think her game is focusing more on her submissions, not saying she can't do it but their last fight together they both were very durable, I don't think Rose has the power to KO/TKO Tecia, there is a chance it might happen but I wouldn't hold my breath, Namajunas by sub or dec is more likely, and as others have stated a hedge for Tecia Torres win by dec is another option that has a high probability to hit. I got more on Namajunas though, i feel like she's gonna have more tools to end the fight especially on the ground, and seeing as this is their second fight against each other I think she wants to show Tecia Torres that her submissions have improved. That's just my 2cents though.

I agree.. Rose by Sub is her most likely pathway to victory.. I am worried a bit with her taking it to decision though I can't lie.. Small chicks are hard to finish at this level.. I got burnt last event with small chicks going the distance... Rose submission game is her strong suit though..

[JIBBBY]

How can you not love this guy?

Love him until he gets cleaned and you lose money betting on him against fighters like RDA.. Cowboy is a very solid journeyman though that steps up when called upon.. RESPK!!!

[UncleChael]

Agreed... That's how I pinned it down..
JoshKnows46's play

1331 Namajunas wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_50" name="radiox" type="radio">+250

hedge
With UncleChael's play

1307 Torres wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_38" name="radiox" type="radio">+225

Yea, right after UNC told you. I am your OG and I will be respected as such.

[jordanft19]

Anyone here like court mcgee by decision or just straight up as a dog?

[Droz37]

Anyone here like court mcgee by decision or just straight up as a dog?

I don't feel strongly for one or the other in this fight, but I can see it going the distance, pick your side to win or go for the over 2.5 or goes the distance, odds might not be that great though.

Ponzinibbio / McGee goes 3 rnd distance

<input type="radio" id="radiox" value="M1_109" name="radiox" language="javascript" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 1px; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);">-170

Ponzinibbio / McGee over 2½

<input type="radio" id="radiox" value="M1_109" name="radiox" language="javascript" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 1px; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);">-200

[JoshKnows46]

Anyone here like court mcgee by decision or just straight up as a dog?

coin flip, current line is accurate with ponz as the slight favorite, nothing worth putting your money on, its a gamble, the over is easy money, may bet mcgee by 3rd round finish, as i could see him down 2 rounds and need the finish in the 3rd, and he has the better cardio..... the dec will be close, and be desided by how the judges score the takedowns from mcgee, not the kind of fight you want any money on a side, will be a tough fight to score.

[JoshKnows46]

Agreed... That's how I pinned it down..

1331 Namajunas wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_50" name="radiox" type="radio">+250

hedge

1307 Torres wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_38" name="radiox" type="radio">+225

if it goes the distance, namajunes wins a clear 30-27 on all 3 score cards, there's nothing that torres does better, instead of wasting your money on sub and torres dec hedge, risking $200 to win $150 or $125, just put that $200 you have split up between both plays, on rose straight to make sure you don't lose both bets.....Rose straight bet is the clear lock of the entire card, with machida and ferguson falling out, Torres 100% wont finish and she 100% wont win a dec...namajunes sub should not be your base play, she can win by ko/sub or dec....sub should be a muh smaller bet compared to your rose straight wager, rose has many tools and advantages to numerous over torres to pin down only one way she will win, i agree sub is most likely, but it should not be your base wager.

[JoshKnows46]

I agree I wouldn't hedge it either jus roll the dice and hope Dodson does what he does. Only hedge would be Dodson by dec if manny can survive somehow. The fight I would hedge is Rose vsTorres. Im pretty confident in Rose but Torres did dominate the first matchup. Rose has improved hugely though especially her cardio. Maybe hedge Torres by dec. She would have to get the takedown and avoid the sub and grind it out. Jus a thought

Its not a hedge bet, its a value bet, my base bet is on the under....i prefer manny sub hit over dodson KO, as i only profit 80 bucks for the ko, and i profit $1630 for manny sub.....have dodson as the favorite, but not nearly as high as the oddsmakers set the line...oddsmakers giving manny less than 1 percent chance at a sub, i say its around 35% manny wins, with sub being 30% of the 35%,with 5% being dec massive value in the sub line....oddsmakers only giving him 18% probabilty at +450 straight, i have it higher than that, but I don't bet on a underdog unless i have them atleast at a coin flip, the sub prop isn't a hedge, its a value bet.....dodson has a huge advantage on the feet, so dodson ko has value....these aren't hedge bets because i'm not taking a stand on either guy at the current price tags, i'm rooting for the bigger value play in manny sub coming through over the ko.....I'm taking a stand on the under, that's the bet to make at plus money, that's the best bet in this fight. the dosdon and namajunes lines should be flipped, namajunes should be the -600 favorite, and dodson should be the -225 favorite.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Chiesa points handicap +3.5 -180 Risking $450

McGee wins in round 3 +2000 Risking $100

Dias points handicap +3.5 -215 Risking $537.50

Graves wins in round 3 +1475 Risking $100
Graves (scorecards = no action) +105 Risking $250

Horcher (scorecards = no action) +575 Risking $50
Horcher wins by TKO/KO +1450 Risking $50

Correia points handicap +3.5 -115 Risking $287.50

[Ty$]

Its not a hedge bet, its a value bet, my base bet is on the under....i prefer manny sub hit over dodson KO, as i only profit 80 bucks for the ko, and i profit $1630 for manny sub.....have dodson as the favorite, but not nearly as high as the oddsmakers set the line...oddsmakers giving manny less than 1 percent chance at a sub, i say its around 35% manny wins, with sub being 30% of the 35%,with 5% being dec massive value in the sub line....oddsmakers only giving him 18% probabilty at +450 straight, i have it higher than that, but I don't bet on a underdog unless i have them atleast at a coin flip, the sub prop isn't a hedge, its a value bet.....dodson has a huge advantage on the feet, so dodson ko has value....these aren't hedge bets because i'm not taking a stand on either guy at the current price tags, i'm rooting for the bigger value play in manny sub coming through over the ko.....I'm taking a stand on the under, that's the bet to make at plus money, that's the best bet in this fight. the dosdon and namajunes lines should be flipped, namajunes should be the -600 favorite, and dodson should be the -225 favorite.

-600 against a top 5 opponent and one she lost to? Ok

[Ty$]

Added:
Chiesa points handicap +3.5 -180 Risking $450

McGee wins in round 3 +2000 Risking $100

Dias points handicap +3.5 -215 Risking $537.50

Graves wins in round 3 +1475 Risking $100
Graves (scorecards = no action) +105 Risking $250

Horcher (scorecards = no action) +575 Risking $50
Horcher wins by TKO/KO +1450 Risking $50

Correia points handicap +3.5 -115 Risking $287.50

What scores do you need for Chiesa to win that bet?