UFC Fight Night 81: January 17th, 2016

[JoshKnows46]

What made you double your bet on TJ? That's a lot of risk

No added reason, what I planned on betting on him. You can find reasoning behind the play in one of my other threads, someone already asked about the bet. No risk at all in this bet, cruz has no path to victory, when the books give you a gift, make sure your grab it with both hands.

[JoshKnows46]

Well you threw away money betting against Pettis I see

That's you and the majority of peoples opinion, watch my smoke...

[bjpenn85]

No added reason, what I planned on betting on him. You can find reasoning behind the play in one of my other threads, someone already asked about the bet. No risk at all in this bet, cruz has no path to victory, when the books give you a gift, make sure your grab it with both hands.

Thats about as much true as dustin poirier cant get KOed by Duffy, or that lawler cant win over condit by a decision. Youre sold on tj, but dont fool yourself into believing cruz doesnt got a chance. Baraos fighting style and cruz we all know its a stationary target vs a moving one.

[mirinquads]

Added:
TJ Dillashaw -145 Risking $3500 (for a total of $7000 risked)

TJ Dillashaw wins inside 5 round distance +315 Risking $500

Dillashaw have consistently been under -125, and now you double up at a much shittier line.. You basically threw away like 500 dollars worth of profit if he does win.. just why?

[JoshKnows46]

Thats about as much true as dustin poirier cant get KOed by Duffy, or that lawler cant win over condit by a decision. Youre sold on tj, but dont fool yourself into believing cruz doesnt got a chance. Baraos fighting style and cruz we all know its a stationary target vs a moving one.

Dustin wasn't kod, lawlar lost, I don't look at woulda coulda shouldas, I look at what happen. If those are your only 2 examples why I lose, you need get off your mother's tit son. Wonderboy, Porior plus 200, conor vs chad, conor vs aldo, killashaw over barao, werdum at plus 400 over jds, Rockhold over wedman, there's many many more., you doubt me every time, and I show you every time, if I tell you it isn't close, just believe me, and don't waste my time, I know the style matchup, so thanks for that eye opening revalation of the diffrences between barao and cruz lmfao like I haven't watch every single fight 4 times at bare min, I don't know the fukin diffrence from barao or cruz, is this what you're telling me?

If you are looking for reasoning, and this is why you made this stupid asinine commrnt, then they can be found in my other thread..

[JoshKnows46]

Dillashaw have consistently been under -125, and now you double up at a much shittier line.. You basically threw away like 500 dollars worth of profit if he does win.. just why?

I did this on purpose you stupid mfer.. does ur brain work..

If I missed a line, it's for one of two reasons, I thought it would move the way I would have liked it to, or I was fuc.king your mom.

You worried about my profits cupcake, don't worry, I got this.

[mirinquads]

I did this on purpose you stupid mfer.. does ur brain work..

If I missed a line, it's for one of two reasons, I thought it would move the way I would have liked it to, or I was fuc.king your mom.

You worried about my profits cupcake, don't worry, I got this.

Ah, the old "I did something idiotic, but i totally ment to!!" defense. You're so predictable.

You may "got this" but you just cheated your self out of profits by being a sh!t gambler. So good job, imbecile.

[JoshKnows46]

Ah, the old "I did something idiotic, but i totally ment to!!" defense. You're so predictable.

You may "got this" but you just cheated your self out of profits by being a sh!t gambler. So good job, imbecile.

Read the first line again, sarcasm excapes you. I'm saying, as if I did it on purpose.... never claimed to be a line wizard.

[mirinquads]

Because you haven't done that before.. Now all of a sudden its sarcasm.

No reason to get all butthurt though, just pointing out that the line was sitting at -125 for days, and still is -135. No reason to cheat your self out of profit.

[JoshKnows46]

Because you haven't done that before.. Now all of a sudden its sarcasm.

No reason to get all butthurt though, just pointing out that the line was sitting at -125 for days, and still is -135. No reason to cheat your self out of profit.

Butthurt, lol the responds comes from a place of no shit sherlock. I know what the line was at, I thought the cruz nut huggers would bet it down more. It went back up and I bet it, it doesnt hurt my feelings in any way shape or form.

[opinionator]

would you two just figure out who is gonna blow who and get it over with

[bjpenn85]

Relax dude. I was on lawler and dustin and i will be on TJ this weekend. But we have to be honest, this could go 5 rounds, and it can be close. Im not so sure this is going to be as one sided as you claim. That doesnt mean we are in any disagreement. I believe Dillashaw wins.

[JoshKnows46]

Relax dude. I was on lawler and dustin and i will be on TJ this weekend. But we have to be honest, this could go 5 rounds, and it can be close. Im not so sure this is going to be as one sided as you claim. That doesnt mean we are in any disagreement. I believe Dillashaw wins.

Well that's all that matters.... as long as the banyroster wins. I Have it being stopped inside the distance at +315, what can cruz do to hurt dillashaw, nothing, dillashaw matches his speed, with more power and better wrestling, it's gonna be a walk off home run. Cruz has a guy that can keep up with him, it's a blowout not even considering the 5 year layoff with 90 minutes a fight in between, I'm comparing prime dillashaw to prime cruz, I'm not even considering the layoff, but it's very low probability cruz can run from dillashaw for 5 5 minute rounds, its very unlikely, cruz will get battered on the feet, taken down and battered some more on the ground till the ref stops it, he is gonna hurt him, it will be the worse beating of Cruz's life... Make sure you have something on inside the distance, it's not often the books throw out a gift like this, if you rememver the last time I bet this much was around 6 months maybe 7 months ago, I'm 5 and 0 when betting over 7k, I don't lose when I bet this much, when I see a steal like this I jump all over it, can't wait for sunday, trust me here.

Also I got upset because everyone knows condit won,and dustin didn't get kod so I was right in saying less then 2 percent chance, it's 0 percent chance now, he won, and he won every single round.

[bjpenn85]

Well that's all that matters.... as long as the banyroster wins. I Have it being stopped inside the distance at +315, what can cruz do to hurt dillashaw, nothing, dillashaw matches his speed, with more power and better wrestling, it's gonna be a walk off home run. Cruz has a guy that can keep up with him, it's a blowout not even considering the 5 year layoff with 90 minutes a fight in between, I'm comparing prime dillashaw to prime cruz, I'm not even considering the layoff, but it's very low probability cruz can run from dillashaw for 5 5 minute rounds, its very unlikely, cruz will get battered on the feet, taken down and battered some more on the ground till the ref stops it, he is gonna hurt him, it will be the worse beating of Cruz's life... Make sure you have something on inside the distance, it's not often the books throw out a gift like this, if you rememver the last time I bet this much was around 6 months maybe 7 months ago, I'm 5 and 0 when betting over 7k, I don't lose when I bet this much, when I see a steal like this I jump all over it, can't wait for sunday, trust me here.

Also I got upset because everyone knows condit won,and dustin didn't get kod so I was right in saying less then 2 percent chance, it's 0 percent chance now, he won, and he won every single round.

If the fight is stopped i think most people will agree that the chance of cruz stopping dillashaw isnt very big. My concern is like everyone else that cruz is slick, and moveable, and may irritate tj so that he loose his cool, and underperform. On the other side, how often does fighters perform after long injury/layoff in a championship fight? Almost never, look how cain and gsp looked in their return. Horrible. So the logical bet is on Dillashaw, hes the one with chance of winning both a decision and inside distance.

[Beelzebubzy]

If the fight is stopped i think most people will agree that the chance of cruz stopping dillashaw isnt very big. My concern is like everyone else that cruz is slick, and moveable, and may irritate tj so that he loose his cool, and underperform. On the other side, how often does fighters perform after long injury/layoff in a championship fight? Almost never, look how cain and gsp looked in their return. Horrible. So the logical bet is on Dillashaw, hes the one with chance of winning both a decision and inside distance.

How did condit look in his return vs alves?

[JoshKnows46]

If the fight is stopped i think most people will agree that the chance of cruz stopping dillashaw isnt very big. My concern is like everyone else that cruz is slick, and moveable, and may irritate tj so that he loose his cool, and underperform. On the other side, how often does fighters perform after long injury/layoff in a championship fight? Almost never, look how cain and gsp looked in their return. Horrible. So the logical bet is on Dillashaw, hes the one with chance of winning both a decision and inside distance.

Your right, only a idiot would bet on cruz under this situation. It's absolutely dillashaw or no play, no matter who you think wins. I'm just saying I handicapped the fight based on if both guys were in their primes, layoff is a nice plus, but dont bank on that, cruz did looked good inthose 90 seconds 2 years ago. But he does nothing better than tj. Take advantage of this line, unload and get ready to back up the truck pick up your money..

[bjpenn85]

How did condit look in his return vs alves?

Ey, youre back. Good point, i would say thats not a championship fight? Dont know where alves is at this point.

Its difficult to understand all the years as one big lay off, or just forget them and count the last year as the only lay off interest. But its a layoff with a significant injury.

[JoshKnows46]

I may just start fading certain people on this board, to save myself time lol, guys like Miri and a couple others, seems like they enjoy giving money away. I give em the winners and they constantly are betting on the other side. It's nuts, for the life of me I don't see what they see with cruz.

[Sanity Check]

I have Pettis over Alvarez. Pettis is better everywhere. Sharper more technical striker. More power on the feet, Pettis finished a lot of guys with 1 shot, Alvarez is more of a attrition fighter who has to land multiple strikes to finish. Pettis has better grappling on the ground, more finishes via sub in tricky situations against better opposition. With Pettis working with Izzy Martinez, any wrestling advantage Alvarez might have enjoyed should be gone.

I hope you pull that Alvarez play though, you have a lot more riding on Alvarez than I do on Pettis.

[UncleChael]

It's going to a be a one sided beat down with TJ swinging the Hammer.

[JoshKnows46]

I have Pettis over Alvarez. Pettis is better everywhere. Sharper more technical striker. More power on the feet, Pettis finished a lot of guys with 1 shot, Alvarez is more of a attrition fighter who has to land multiple strikes to finish. Pettis has better grappling on the ground, more finishes via sub in tricky situations against better opposition. With Pettis working with Izzy Martinez, any wrestling advantage Alvarez might have enjoyed should be gone.

I hope you pull that Alvarez play though, you have a lot more riding on Alvarez than I do on Pettis.

I only have 250 risked on alverez, that wouldn't even be enough to win 100 bucks on pettis. Pettis has never been finished, don't see them as wide apart to warrant the line being as high as it is, I expected to see a much lower opener, but seeing as everyone doesn't give alverez a shot, they did right by themselves to set the line they did, I see alverez running the same gameplan rda did, pressure pettis, try to get his back up agaihst the cage and force the takedown. Pettis takedown defense isn't gonna be improved enough to stop the takedown, at plus 500, I'll take that all day, just taken advantage of a over inflated line, on what I see as a close fight, don't see a blowout as the line suggests, realistically these lines should be switched to the dillashaw cruz lines, and vise versa, but that wouldn't create even money. I have Pettis favored -170, have dillashaw '-345

[opinionator]

sticking with you until you stop picking winners. agree i dont see how you can be so sure that it is as clear cut as it is, but also agree i dont need to see or agree, i just need TJ to win !! on him str8 @ -140 + itd small @ +275

[JoshKnows46]

sticking with you until you stop picking winners. agree i dont see how you can be so sure that it is as clear cut as it is, but also agree i dont need to see or agree, i just need TJ to win !! on him str8 @ -140 + itd small @ +275

Smart man. It's gonna be a good month for us.

[bjpenn85]

Patrick wyman and conor ruebusch breakdown TJ dillashaw vs Cruz. An eyeopener for me. Everybody who bets on the this matchup should listen: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/1/13...fight-strategy

scroll down to find links.

[mirinquads]

I may just start fading certain people on this board, to save myself time lol, guys like Miri and a couple others, seems like they enjoy giving money away. I give em the winners and they constantly are betting on the other side. It's nuts, for the life of me I don't see what they see with cruz.

Just trolling you buddy. It's funny to see you get so riled up when people don't suck you off on this board.

*Braces for incoming, IM NOT MAD OR UPSET, I FUK U MOM!!! post*

[JoshKnows46]

Just trolling you buddy. It's funny to see you get so riled up when people don't suck you off on this board.

*Braces for incoming, IM NOT MAD OR UPSET, I FUK U MOM!!! post*

I just want you to switch your bet to dillashaw, and win sum money little man, I'm not here to harm you.

[Deceptakhan]

any value on betting against these fill in fighters?

[JoshKnows46]

any value on betting against these fill in fighters?

I'll have a few more plays after weighins, of those 3 fights however, im considering betting on one of the fill ins.

[TPowell]

just scalped the Cote fight. Can't see how Saunders wins this fight unless he hits some crazy sub from his rubber guard

$220 to win $200 on Cote
$110 to win $308 on Saunders to win by sub

[TPowell]

I'll have a few more plays after weighins, of those 3 fights however, im considering betting on one of the fill ins.

The guy that was supposed to fight Rosa who was a BJJ world champion would have been a lock IMO. Rosa is so bad on the feet that he'd still go the ground with him and he'd end up getting subbed. Shame the kid got hurt like a day after accepting the late notice fight. I'm also thinking about betting Luke. One thing I know about the guy is that he never quits and his cardio is amazing. The way he pushes the pace, Blanco will be dead late in the 1st round

[mirinquads]

Was not close to a lock in any way, but I liked that bet a lot at +205. Sanders is just fighting a bigger much more polished version of him self, and will likely get schooled. People call Blanco's cardio bad, but it's not.

[JoshKnows46]

The guy that was supposed to fight Rosa who was a BJJ world champion would have been a lock IMO. Rosa is so bad on the feet that he'd still go the ground with him and he'd end up getting subbed. Shame the kid got hurt like a day after accepting the late notice fight. I'm also thinking about betting Luke. One thing I know about the guy is that he never quits and his cardio is amazing. The way he pushes the pace, Blanco will be dead late in the 1st round

I agree completly, dammit what happen to mendes?, that was the one guy I was gonna bet on of these replacement fights. I also agree with mirin, it wasn't a lock based on the situation, but I was gonna have at least 2 units on it, 300 straight, and 300 on the sub prob.

The luke/Blanco line seems correctly set, don't see value in either, if I'm betting on fighters I can't depend on fully such as these, then I need to have an unbalanced line, added value in the line, this is one I'd rather leave alone.

[Thor4140]

I have Pettis over Alvarez. Pettis is better everywhere. Sharper more technical striker. More power on the feet, Pettis finished a lot of guys with 1 shot, Alvarez is more of a attrition fighter who has to land multiple strikes to finish. Pettis has better grappling on the ground, more finishes via sub in tricky situations against better opposition. With Pettis working with Izzy Martinez, any wrestling advantage Alvarez might have enjoyed should be gone.

I hope you pull that Alvarez play though, you have a lot more riding on Alvarez than I do on Pettis.

you want him to win because he has more on Eddie than u do on Pettis? Am i reading this right?

[Thor4140]

Just trolling you buddy. It's funny to see you get so riled up when people don't suck you off on this board.

*Braces for incoming, IM NOT MAD OR UPSET, I FUK U MOM!!! post*

lol

[mirinquads]

you want him to win because he has more on Eddie than u do on Pettis? Am i reading this right?

Literally can't make this shit up. "Here stranger on a message board, I hope my bet loses so you can win!!".

What is the world coming to these days man.