UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story (October 04, 2014)

[marzwoody]

Someone posted that Kavanah was expecting a round 1 KO which was interesting to me..

[PolishSensation]

Gonna bet a unit each on Jotko and Blachowitz. Watched these guys in Poland, good fighters. Good chance at least one hits and I make a small profit.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

The over 2.5 seems more likely, and it would also cover the best chance Story has to win: Nelson is methodical, and gets into his rhythm without much urgency. He's better standing and on the ground, but his takedowns aren't the greatest and Story's TDD is strong, so Story may be able to at dictate where the fight goes, at least in the early rounds. He's definitely not going to want the fight to go to the ground, so he'll going to be ultra-careful not to be too aggressive and expose himself.

One man is patient, the other is careful, and they're both pacing themselves for 5 rounds. I think that Nelson should finish, but it feels risky betting on when...

Impeccable grammar.

[Skel]

Gonna bet a unit each on Jotko and Blachowitz. Watched these guys in Poland, good fighters. Good chance at least one hits and I make a small profit.

Nice to have a Polish insider on the forum. I like one of those plays but don't know enough about the other matchup.

[Jim_Gunn]

The over 2.5 seems more likely, and it would also cover the best chance Story has to win: Nelson is methodical, and gets into his rhythm without much urgency. He's better standing and on the ground, but his takedowns aren't the greatest and Story's TDD is strong, so Story may be able to at dictate where the fight goes, at least in the early rounds. He's definitely not going to want the fight to go to the ground, so he'll going to be ultra-careful not to be too aggressive and expose himself.

One man is patient, the other is careful, and they're both pacing themselves for 5 rounds. I think that Nelson should finish, but it feels risky betting on when...

It remains to be seen whether Story is ultra-careful. I think he'll mix it up with Nelson at some point fairly early and the very first mistake he makes will be exploited. Damian Maia subbed him in the first round in their fight remember. Even if Nelson starts slow and loses the first round like he did against Zach Cummings, he'll time Story move in with strikes and grab a hold of him in the second. It's a matter of punches and strikes from there until he turns or gives up his neck. That's how I see it playing out.

[Bava]

It remains to be seen whether Story is ultra-careful. I think he'll mix it up with Nelson at some point fairly early and the very first mistake he makes will be exploited. Damian Maia subbed him in the first round in their fight remember. Even if Nelson starts slow and loses the first round like he did against Zach Cummings, he'll time Story move in with strikes and grab a hold of him in the second. It's a matter of punches and strikes from there until he turns or gives up his neck. That's how I see it playing out.

There's a good chance I'm overestimating Story's durability and smarts (I'm also having a hard time figuring out what his game plan/ path to victory looks like), but I've never thought of him as being sloppy or reckless; Maia submitted him quickly, and the memory of that fight might make him less inclined to throw himself into risky positions against another submission ace. Not saying you're wrong, though. GL

[JIBBBY]

Not betting on all the fighters that train at SBG.. Just the one's that are hyped, solid and fighting in the UFC today.. Gunnar, Conor, and Pendred in particular.. http://sbgireland.com/index.php/fighter-profiles

[Napes21]

Not betting on all the fighters that train at SBG.. Just the one's that are hyped, solid and fighting in the UFC today.. Gunnar, Conor, and Pendred in particular.. http://sbgireland.com/index.php/fighter-profiles

Pendred is not very solid IMO - although neither is his opponent in this fight

[MD]

Gonna bet a unit each on Jotko and Blachowitz. Watched these guys in Poland, good fighters. Good chance at least one hits and I make a small profit.

I wish people would stop betting based on nationalism. It's just silly.

I've decided to start betting on all these Irish dudes training at SBG...

Hold on, I think he's onto something this time.

[MD]

Pendred is not very solid IMO - although neither is his opponent in this fight

Umalatov isn't very solid? What?

Not betting on all the fighters that train at SBG.. Just the one's that are hyped, solid and fighting in the UFC today.. Gunnar, Conor, and Pendred in particular.. http://sbgireland.com/index.php/fighter-profiles

I can't imagine how it could be a bad idea to bet on someone because of their hype.

[PaperTrail07]

Im on it, But Im kinda w ya he is just scrappy and can make it an ugly 3 round DEC....hope not...

Im on tukhugov as well, but that chavez dude is scrappy and effective. He isnt ufc caliber, yet, i believe he may be able to make it ugly. He shouldnt but he probably does. Im unsure of this bet

[JIBBBY]

Pendred is not very solid IMO - although neither is his opponent in this fight

Yet to be seen Napes.. 8 fight win streak.. Seems to still be improving and getting better with each fight.. Did ok on the TUF show a few years ago.. 1-0 in the UFC to date.. Works and trains with good fighters and camps around the world...

Is he a stud? No he is not. I'd say his star is still on the rise though...

Still wins this next fight one would think...

[alpinepetey]

Not betting on all the fighters that train at SBG.. Just the one's that are hyped, solid and fighting in the UFC today.. Gunnar, Conor, and Pendred in particular.. http://sbgireland.com/index.php/fighter-profiles

Gunnar is from Iceland not Ireland and Pendred was pretty brutal on TUF and will get smashed as soon as he fights anyone decent.

[Napes21]

[QUOTE=MD;22705453]Umalatov isn't very solid? What?

You for real? I was at his fight with Magny - unimpressive. And his fight against Thiago I found equally unimpressive (granted it would be hard to impress me in any fight with Thiago that wasn't an outright obliteration of him). He's got decent TDD and some head movement but otherwise throws a lot of stupid looping punches. You seen something I haven't? Admittedly I haven't watched any pre-UFC footage of him.

[alpinepetey]

I think that was some classic MD sarcasm there Napes

[MD]

I think that was some classic MD sarcasm there Napes

Nah, not this time. I think Umalatov is underrated; his fight IQ is very high, and he combines it with an impressively well-rounded game. Napes seems to think he fights like Chris Leben, but he's very skilled, especially considering his lack of athletic gifts.

[Skel]

Yet to be seen Napes.. 8 fight win streak.. Seems to still be improving and getting better with each fight.. Did ok on the TUF show a few years ago.. 1-0 in the UFC to date.. Works and trains with good fighters and camps around the world...

Is he a stud? No he is not. I'd say his star is still on the rise though...

Still wins this next fight one would think...

Jesus Christ, Jibbby.

[JIBBBY]

Jesus Christ, Jibbby.

Jesus Christ, Skel...

[JIBBBY]

Gunnar is from Iceland not Ireland and Pendred was pretty brutal on TUF and will get smashed as soon as he fights anyone decent.

Yep, Gunnar Nelson was born in Iceland and that is his Nationality.. He sure hangs out in Ireland alot and around all those Irish lads though....

[bjpenn85]

Iceland has 300.000 inhabitants approx. Insane that they produce world class foot-ballplayers and ufc fighters. Its bizarre.

[Vaughany]

Iceland has 300.000 inhabitants approx. Insane that they produce world class foot-ballplayers and ufc fighters. Its bizarre.

Yee it is very interesting, and something ive thought about as ive witnessed more and more quality football players come out of Iceland. Has to be something to do with their character i guess? I mean they seem to generally have tht steely, focussed and very disciplined attitude and character. Take professional footballers for instance like you mentioned, its hard to think of even one Iceland player tht is known for being lazy, or arrogant, or outspoken and difficult to work with. And as far as im aware its not like they poured millions of euros in to creating top class facilities for young footballers. I think its fair to say now tht their National Team is as good as if not better than likes of Finland and Norway which is quite insane considering those two countries have 5+ million population!

[Vaughany]

Yep, Gunnar Nelson was born in Iceland and that is his Nationality.. He sure hangs out in Ireland alot and around all those Irish lads though....

Hahha

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Iceland has 300.000 inhabitants approx. Insane that they produce world class foot-ballplayers and ufc fighters. Its bizarre.

Superior genetics!

[JIBBBY]

Musoke left his usual camp for this fight I wouldn't be betting him

Agreed and that why this fight is a no play for me... I just couldn't pick a winner in this one and I capped this beast hard too... I did see that both fighters are EXTREMELY durable, solid chins, hard to finish so the over rounds bet looked like the best play to roll the dice on in this scrap... This fight I believe will be going to the judges scoring cards in the end.

[Bumdeal]

Iceland Police

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mrloganrhoades/all-police-need-to-be-more-like-the-police-from-iceland#2mpjlx5

[firekillex]

Rick story for the win

[JIBBBY]

Iceland Police
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mrloganrhoad...celand#2mpjlx5

Moving to Iceland.. No crime sounds good to me.. Respectable responsible people are a win... I'd miss the beach and warm weather though....

[Napes21]

Yee it is very interesting, and something ive thought about as ive witnessed more and more quality football players come out of Iceland. Has to be something to do with their character i guess? I mean they seem to generally have tht steely, focussed and very disciplined attitude and character. Take professional footballers for instance like you mentioned, its hard to think of even one Iceland player tht is known for being lazy, or arrogant, or outspoken and difficult to work with. And as far as im aware its not like they poured millions of euros in to creating top class facilities for young footballers. I think its fair to say now tht their National Team is as good as if not better than likes of Finland and Norway which is quite insane considering those two countries have 5+ million population!

I can't think of a single football player from Iceland - sure are a lot of Samoans though

[PaperTrail07]

F his camp Musoke is going to go in and win guy is a beast almost beat KG

Agreed and that why this fight is a no play for me... I just couldn't pick a winner in this one and I capped this beast hard too... I did see that both fighters are EXTREMELY durable, solid chins, hard to finish so the over rounds bet looked like the best play to roll the dice on in this scrap... This fight I believe will be going to the judges scoring cards in the end.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Paper I'm not one to second guess an internet brothers pick.. Hope ya isssss rights!!! Musoke for the win it is..

I'll be rooting for ya to win it... I will say this Paper if I had to pick a winnarz in this scrap I'd go with Musoke as well...

[JIBBBY]

Rick story for the win

After watching UFC tonight just a few hours ago fireKill I must say - Gunnar Nelson wanted to take the year off (baby and family priorities) and Conor talked him out of it because the event is being held close to his home Country..

That honestly doesn't sound like a hungry fighter to me... Regardless, I still don't think Rick Story has enough tools to tool Gunnar Nelson near his home town of Iceland in this fight coming up.. Getting concerned though about this play just a little bit...

Gunnar after his last fight though....

[Skel]

F his camp Musoke is going to go in and win guy is a beast almost beat KG

That was a strange fight. Musoke was able to take Kelvin down in the first but had no success after that. Kelvin demolished him in rounds 2 and 3.

[Skel]

Jesus Christ, Skel...

Jibbby, Cathal fought on TUF earlier this year, not a few years ago.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby, Cathal fought on TUF earlier this year, not a few years ago.

Oh ok.. I don't watch those TUF shows anymore.. Thanks for the correction Skel...

[Vaughany]

After watching UFC tonight just a few hours ago fireKill I must say - Gunnar Nelson wanted to take the year off (baby and family priorities) and Conor talked him out of it because the event is being held close to his home Country..

That honestly doesn't sound like a hungry fighter to me... Regardless, I still don't think Rick Story has enough tools to tool Gunnar Nelson near his home town of Iceland in this fight coming up.. Getting concerned though about this play just a little bit...

Gunnar after his last fight though....

Are you sure he didn't say "wanted to take his head clean off" and Conor talked him out of it because it's one of his catchphrases? Along with "It's a beautiful ting" and "I like custom made suits"