UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story (October 04, 2014)

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • THE_LOCKSMITH
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-25-08
    • 7237

    #1
    UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story (October 04, 2014)


    UFC Fight Pass, 3 p.m. ET
    Gunnar Nelson vs. Rick Story
    Akira Corassani vs. Max Holloway
    Jan Blachowicz vs. Ilir Latifi
    Niklas Backstrom vs. Mike Wilkinson

    UFC Fight Pass, 12:10 p.m. ET
    Scott Askham vs. Magnus Cedenblad
    Nico Musoke vs. Alexander Yakovlev
    Dennis Siver vs. Robert Whiteford
    Cathal Pendred vs. Gasan Umalatov
    Krzysztof Jotko vs. Tor Troeng
    Marcin Bandel vs. Mairbek Taisumov
    Ernest Chavez vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

  • THE_LOCKSMITH
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-25-08
    • 7237

    #2
    full odds out for this card way in advance, I'm guessing because the event is sponsored by a sportsbook
    Comment
    • THE_LOCKSMITH
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-25-08
      • 7237

      #3
      next...
      Comment
      • illmatick
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-05-09
        • 5456

        #4
        Gunnar Nelson yeah that's bro.


        what yall didn't know though is that Gunnar's norepinephrine/noradrenaline neurotransmitter isn't even from this planet.

        These celestial type neurotransmitters some of you just don't have it inside yourself to spot em .
        Comment
        • JIBBBY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-10-09
          • 83686

          #5
          Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
          full odds out for this card way in advance, I'm guessing because the event is sponsored by a sportsbook
          With that being said I already jumped on a couple of props early on too.. 25 bucks each.. Small stuff..

          1305 - Wilkerson wins inside the distance +680
          1205 - Blachowicz wins inside the distance +620
          Comment
          • mmaed
            SBR MVP
            • 11-25-11
            • 1327

            #6
            Doubt black owing finishes latifi. Latifi is very hard to submit and he has a great chin.
            Comment
            • mmaed
              SBR MVP
              • 11-25-11
              • 1327

              #7
              Spell auto correct on my cell is responsible for the above missspelling.
              Comment
              • JIBBBY
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-10-09
                • 83686

                #8
                Originally posted by mmaed
                Doubt black owing finishes latifi. Latifi is very hard to submit and he has a great chin.
                I agree but my goal with those 2 prop bets is that maybe one lands.. These are big guys that hit hard at 205.. Latifi was stopped by Tyasuya Mizuna with strikes a few years back..
                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #9
                  Horrible Wilkinson prop as well. What about Story by submission, Jibby?
                  Comment
                  • JIBBBY
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-10-09
                    • 83686

                    #10
                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                    Horrible Wilkinson prop as well. What about Story by submission, Jibby?
                    Just playing around small with all the props with the big odds.. Story by sub is really reaching but at +1650 that's nuts..... Taking Story winning inside the distance at +530 is a little safer play I think....
                    Comment
                    • Vaughany
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 03-07-10
                      • 45563

                      #11
                      Hahhaha
                      Comment
                      • marzwoody
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-03-14
                        • 3902

                        #12
                        How about you just parlay Gunny since we all know hes gonna win?
                        Comment
                        • Ron_Paul_2012
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-31-13
                          • 3953

                          #13
                          Originally posted by JIBBBY
                          With that being said I already jumped on a couple of props early on too.. 25 bucks each.. Small stuff..

                          1305 - Wilkerson wins inside the distance +680
                          1205 - Blachowicz wins inside the distance +620
                          Comment
                          • JIBBBY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-10-09
                            • 83686

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                            Really more back up insurance bets as I will be picking on the other fighters straight or in large parlays..

                            There is some reasoning behind my madness with these prop plays...
                            Comment
                            • Pmoney
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 06-19-14
                              • 68

                              #15
                              Comment
                              • PunisherIND
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-24-11
                                • 4983

                                #16




                                The Swedish Mixed Martial Arts Federation ruled that Lapilus, fighting out of Paris France, was not a suitable opponent for Siver.

                                Comment
                                • Beelzebubzy
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-06-11
                                  • 6995

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Pmoney
                                  yep
                                  Comment
                                  • JIBBBY
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-10-09
                                    • 83686

                                    #18
                                    Cracking Saturday's puzzle with this card first!!!http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-n...ockholm#/fight

                                    Taking all the favorites on this main card.. Wish I could find a dog to play but I just can't see any of the dogs winning after capping the 4 fights..

                                    Gunnar Nelson
                                    Latifi
                                    Backstrom
                                    Max Holloway


                                    Gonna roll the dice on a 3 teamer with Gunnar Nelson -335, Backstrom -550, and Max Holloway -600... (1.5 units placed) Those 3 are very strong plays that should all cash..

                                    Latifi i may play straight or add to another parlay 2 team link up as I continue to cap the prelims.. Haven't decided yet on this play????.. Just sharing as I go...
                                    Comment
                                    • JIBBBY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-10-09
                                      • 83686

                                      #19
                                      Good write up on the fights..http://combatpress.com/2014/09/toe-t...d-predictions/
                                      Comment
                                      • JIBBBY
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-10-09
                                        • 83686

                                        #20
                                        Gotta roll with -140 - Cathal Pendred 14-2.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cathal-Pendred-64373

                                        The dude trains with the likes of Conor McGregor and what not.. 8 fight win streak... Worked over Mike King in his UFC debut... Should be able to take out this Ruskie in Gasan Umal.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gasan-Umalatov-5310915-3 who has a big win over Paulo Thiago (whoopie)... 2-2 in his last 4... He himself got worked over by Neil Magny in a decision loss... Respectable loss but not impressive..


                                        Also going with the dog +110 in K. Jotko 14-1.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Krzysztof-Jotko-53380 This POL. is coming off his first loss and is 1-1 in the UFC.. The Swed. in Tor Troeng at 16-6 is a tough dude but on a 2 fight losing streak now.. Gonna go with the kid in this one....

                                        Tis a beautiful ting... Oh those Irish peps.. LOL..

                                        Comment
                                        • fitguy67
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-13-11
                                          • 5082

                                          #21
                                          jibs, thanks for the last few link-heavy posts...

                                          that combatpress link is good...helped fill in the gaps on my "just how good is this backstorm kid" (both absolutely and relative to his opponent)conundrum...now i'm quite comfy giving him official SPF (solid parlay fodder) status this weekend

                                          __________

                                          skill rules (but size matters)...imagine alvarez joining the featherweight mix...
                                          Comment
                                          • JIBBBY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-10-09
                                            • 83686

                                            #22
                                            No prob.. Just trying to iron out this card early on in the week this go around so I can jump to the other....... Backstrom is solid.. Odds reflect that too...
                                            Comment
                                            • Jim_Gunn
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-20-13
                                              • 542

                                              #23
                                              My only bet on this card so far is Wilkinson/Backstrom Under 1½ at +105. I'll be looking for a Backstrom first round sub.
                                              Comment
                                              • JIBBBY
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-10-09
                                                • 83686

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Jim_Gunn
                                                My only bet on this card so far is Wilkinson/Backstrom Under 1½ at +105. I'll be looking for a Backstrom first round sub.
                                                Probably a good play Jimmy, may tail ya on that under....

                                                Going with the over 2 1/2 rounds bet myself - 170 Alexander Yakovlev/Nickolas Musoke... Looking to parlay that up with Latifi straight in a 2 teamer....
                                                Comment
                                                • PaperTrail07
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-29-08
                                                  • 20423

                                                  #25
                                                  Musoke -205 All DAy Errrrr Day
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JIBBBY
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-10-09
                                                    • 83686

                                                    #26
                                                    Rounding off this card now... My final 2 picks for the card and why, if anyone cares to read in....

                                                    Tukhugov (16-3) at -230... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Zubaira-Tukhugov-63813... This Russian has the better striking and far more MMA experience under his belt.. He's also faced stiffer comp in the past then the guy he is facing in Earnest Chavez.. No brainer for me....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ernest-Chavez-80837

                                                    Looking at this final fight to cap... Bandel (13-2) vs Taisumov (21-5)... This Pol in Marcin Bandel appears to be a sub machine when he locks on to an ankle....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marcin-Bandel-55705... One has to question though the level of comp he's faced to date in all those sub wins.. This Russian in Taisumov hasn't been sub'd out since 2008.. Gotta like the veteran Russian in this fight as he is more well rounded and brings a lot more experience into the cage.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mairbek-Taisumov-33161

                                                    Going with the Russian Taisumov at -190 in this one anyways....


                                                    GOOD LUCK EVERYONE... Moving on to the next event now...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5059

                                                      #27
                                                      Im on tukhugov as well, but that chavez dude is scrappy and effective. He isnt ufc caliber, yet, i believe he may be able to make it ugly. He shouldnt but he probably does. Im unsure of this bet
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                        • 83686

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                        Im on tukhugov as well, but that chavez dude is scrappy and effective. He isnt ufc caliber, yet, i believe he may be able to make it ugly. He shouldnt but he probably does. Im unsure of this bet
                                                        Chavez is gonna get wrecked in this fight.. I feel very confident with this pick. Tukhugov is on another level I believe.. Should cash BJ don't sweat it.....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #29
                                                          So was silverino...but how how much this did "another level" translate before the third round? Watch out mark my word, upsets do happen even though they shouldnt.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JIBBBY
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-10-09
                                                            • 83686

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                            So was silverino...but how how much this did "another level" translate before the third round? Watch out mark my word, upsets do happen even though they shouldnt.
                                                            Watch footage on Chavez then watch this vid below BJ.. I'm sold anyways after capping this fight yesterday.. Like I said it should cash... Paying a heavy price at -230 but I honestly think those odds should be doubled... If there is value in a favorite this fight screams it...

                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jim_Gunn
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-20-13
                                                              • 542

                                                              #31
                                                              I also like the under 2½ rounds on the main event Nelson vs Story at +105. Most likely Nelson is going to submit an aggressive Story in round 1 or 2 the first time he makes a mistake.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • snufflyjoe
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 07-26-11
                                                                • 476

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                                                Musoke -205 All DAy Errrrr Day
                                                                Musoke left his usual camp for this fight I wouldn't be betting him
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83686

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Jim_Gunn
                                                                  I also like the under 2½ rounds on the main event Nelson vs Story at +105. Most likely Nelson is going to submit an aggressive Story in round 1 or 2 the first time he makes a mistake.
                                                                  Could be onto something but Rick Horror Story in recent years has only been sub'd out by Damian Maia.. (world class) http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rick-Story-25989 Fought the best of the best too... Even beat Johny Hendricks but that was back in 2010..

                                                                  Rick Story fights so stiff but he is tough to finish and can bang standing.. I wanted to try to bet on Rick Story in this one but I just couldn't.. Gunnar hasn't fought anyone really great yet in the UFC but he looks solid and represented hard in grappling tourney's in the past for sure..... He remains undefeated too...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246

                                                                  When first capping this fight I watched this fight vid on Nelson and heard the real hype that the announcers said.. All there in this vid below.. Turn up the volume and Listen!!!

                                                                  I've decided to start betting on all these Irish dudes training at SBG... I gotta be honest as I'm a little nervous with this play though if it stays standing... Money is down on Nelson regardless... The dude trained with BJ Penn and Henso Gracie which wasn't mentioned by the way in the vid below....

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • alpinepetey
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-01-12
                                                                    • 844

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                    Could be onto something but Rick Horror Story in recent years has only been sub'd out by Damian Maia.. (world class) http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rick-Story-25989 Fought the best of the best too... Even beat Johny Hendricks but that was back in 2010..

                                                                    Rick Story fights so stiff but he is tough to finish and can bang standing.. I wanna try to bet on Rick Story in this one but I just can't.. Gunnar hasn't fought anyone really great yet in the UFC but he looks solid and represented hard in grappling tourney's in the past for sure..... He remains undefeated too...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246

                                                                    When first capping this fight I watched this fight vid on Nelson and heard the real hype that the announcers said.. All there in this vid below.. Turn up the volume and Listen!!!

                                                                    I've decided to start betting on all these Irish dudes training at SBG... I gotta be honest as I'm a little nervous with this play though if it stays standing... Money is down on Nelson regardless... The dude trained with BJ Penn and Henso Gracie which wasn't mentioned by the way in the vid below....

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Bava
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 07-25-14
                                                                      • 342

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Jim_Gunn
                                                                      I also like the under 2½ rounds on the main event Nelson vs Story at +105. Most likely Nelson is going to submit an aggressive Story in round 1 or 2 the first time he makes a mistake.
                                                                      The over 2.5 seems more likely, and it would also cover the best chance Story has to win: Nelson is methodical, and gets into his rhythm without much urgency. He's better standing and on the ground, but his takedowns aren't the greatest and Story's TDD is strong, so Story may be able to at dictate where the fight goes, at least in the early rounds. He's definitely not going to want the fight to go to the ground, so he'll going to be ultra-careful not to be too aggressive and expose himself.

                                                                      One man is patient, the other is careful, and they're both pacing themselves for 5 rounds. I think that Nelson should finish, but it feels risky betting on when...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      Search
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...