UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Saint Preux (August 16, 2014)

[marzwoody]

Watching the weigh ins... the haircut and underwear sam alvey had made me regret even putting money on the guy. hopefully he shows up.

[Wilbo86]

All the certain ones i had for today has already been played, but I will see tomorrow. It's a decent amount of in sighter information, as you need to know if teams have been bootcamping, have changed members and have practised on different maps. A lot of the statistics go out of the window as well, seeing as in this tournament they have players playing a lot of new maps, which is very difficult to a just to, especially if the teams haven't been practising a lot on them. It's BO1's as well in this round, which means basically anything can happen. There's been some real nail biters in there. This means a lot of profit as well though, as if you can cap them, the lines are sometimes WAY off.
Next round should be easier to predict, seeing as it will be best of 3, where the experience will come into play.

Are you using a voice-to-text conversion software to make these posts? Just wondering.

[Jim_Gunn]

Lauren Murphy up to +420 on 5Dimes? This is getting stupid now. $25 on Murphy straight up to win $105. I also bet $40 to win $46 on Murply +3½ points at +115 in case she loses a close decision.

[Wilbo86]

I just got OSP by Sub paying 15 to 1 at one of my books...

[imadegen]

the only thing I'm probably going to play is Maynard winning. I might sprinkle something on tim boetsch.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Porter @ -205 & Murphy @ +450! Why did you make big bets so early Sider?

[JIBBBY]

I just got OSP by Sub paying 15 to 1 at one of my books...

OSP supposedly has improved alot with his sub game though.. They even expressed that on UFC tonight.. If he clips Bader and then chokes him out you win..

Long shot but might be worth it.. 1-15 odds.. I'd pass up on that though personally.. If OSP wins it gonna be by KO most likely.. Tough prop to pull the trigger on... Good luck with that one anyways Wil...

I think an even better long shot along this line of sub win thinking is "Peralta by submission win" 1-33 odds...

[JIBBBY]

Watching the weigh ins... the haircut and underwear sam alvey had made me regret even putting money on the guy. hopefully he shows up.

Lol.. I saw that.... The funkier he looks the better he fights though.. Sam Alvey is a go for me... No regrets Marz...

WEIGH INS... http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/8/15...weigh-in-video

[Bumdeal]

Wait till you hear his walk out song, marz

[Crassus]

Just watched the weigh-ins...can't really say why but McMann looking pretty pretty pretty good. Dem linebacker arms look good on her. Plus, dose shorts...mmm

[JIBBBY]

Tim Boetsch looked in great shape for him.. That's gonna be a great fight!!!! Brad is tough too...

Sara Mcmann did look stacked as always.....

Shawn Jordan looked a bit chubby as expected as they didn't even show his gut....lol... but he's gonna have about a 15 pound advantage over that tall dude and a wrestling advantage for sure.. Jordan better wrestle his arse off and finish before he gasses out with that big body..

[Skel]

Plays for tomorrow: Bader, OSP sub, Saunders, Boetsch/Tavares O2.5 -210. Gonna miss most of the card if not all of it.

[JIBBBY]

All prop bets in fellas.....said I would show my full hand on this card only.. I'm a man of my word since a few of you guys are still doing the same..

These are all my favored prop pics.. Strong plays to win I think. That's all I got good luck fellas as always!!!!




1008- OSP does not win by decision -1250 (don't think OSP can out work Bader over 5 rounds)
1004- Bader/OSP won't start 5th round -185 (2 big explosive guys in this one, someone should get stopped before 4 long rounds)
1436- Jordan/May won't start 3rd round - 370 (2 Huge guys that probably won't make it out of 1st round)



See ya all manyana for this crap!! Cheers!!!!

[Jim_Gunn]

What's the practicality of betting Not OSP by decision at -1250? Would you really risk such a huge amount of money to win $100?

[MarkWoodstick]

What's the practicality of betting Not OSP by decision at -1250? Would you really risk such a huge amount of money to win $100?

Yea. That's a horrible, horrible price for what is a decently feasible outcome.

[JIBBBY]

What's the practicality of betting Not OSP by decision at -1250? Would you really risk such a huge amount of money to win $100?

Yep... In an all favorites parlay play I got going.... Just threw it in.. Probably not super smart but I did anyways...

Ryan Bader is a high out put fighter, aggressive, superior wrestler and I simply don't think he can be out worked by OSP over 5 rounds, in fact I don't even think Bader has the chin to make it five rounds regardless with OSP if he's losing rounds on points.....

1250 to win 100... Tough to play straight.. Don't have the stones to do that even though I think it's an absolute lock...

My thoughts and action on that prop anyways..

[Das Jax]

What?!?! Who's got lines on video games? I love me some dota.

[JIBBBY]

Lauren Murphy up to +420 on 5Dimes? This is getting stupid now. $25 on Murphy straight up to win $105. I also bet $40 to win $46 on Murply +3½ points at +115 in case she loses a close decision.

Yep, these odds are getting crazy silly now!!!!.. -550 Mcmann on Bovada last time I checked.. Eeeeeks.....

[Wilbo86]

Yep, these odds are getting crazy silly now!!!!.. -550 Mcmann on Bovada last time I checked.. Eeeeeks.....

This line movement was relatively predictable... Sider should have waited, maybe he'll load up again.

[marzwoody]

Lol.. I saw that.... The funkier he looks the better he fights though.. Sam Alvey is a go for me... No regrets Marz...

WEIGH INS... http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/8/15...weigh-in-video

I hope your right Jibster. i really do.

[mirinquads]

Are you using a voice-to-text conversion software to make these posts? Just wondering.

Haha no, but i work nights, and make them while working - so it will often come out as some stream of conciousness nonsense that I cant be arsed to edit, because I'm so tired.

[Crassus]

Action for tonight:
1.2U on Tom Watson at -120 to gain 1U

0.5U on Tom Watson by decision at +170 to gain 0.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +285 to gain 2.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +420 to gain 4.2U

0.5U on McMann ITD at +332 to gain 1.66U

0.25U on Formiga by submission at +625 to gain 1.56U

0.2U on Jack May wins in Round 1 at +240 to gain 0.48U

2U on fight won't start round 2 at -160 to gain 1.25U

0.3U on Tim Boetsch ITD at +700 to gain 2.1U

2.5U on Ross Pearson at -135 to gain 1.85U

0.5U on Ross Pearson ITD at +225 to gain 1.12U

0.25U on Ross Pearson in round 1 at +475 to gain 1.19U

1U on OSP ITD at +210 to gain 2.1U

0.25U on OSP in Round 1 at +575 to gain 1.44U

[MD]

Action for tonight:
1.2U on Tom Watson at -120 to gain 1U

0.5U on Tom Watson by decision at +170 to gain 0.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +285 to gain 2.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +420 to gain 4.2U

0.5U on McMann ITD at +332 to gain 1.66U

0.25U on Formiga by submission at +625 to gain 1.56U

0.2U on Jack May wins in Round 1 at +240 to gain 0.48U

2U on fight won't start round 2 at -160 to gain 1.25U

0.3U on Tim Boetsch ITD at +700 to gain 2.1U

2.5U on Ross Pearson at -135 to gain 1.85U

0.5U on Ross Pearson ITD at +225 to gain 1.12U

0.25U on Ross Pearson in round 1 at +475 to gain 1.19U

1U on OSP ITD at +210 to gain 2.1U

0.25U on OSP in Round 1 at +575 to gain 1.44U

I predict you finish up around 4-5u.

[marzwoody]

Pearson > Maynard

[Crassus]

I predict you finish up around 4-5u.

Off 12U invested I'd be pretty stoked with that return, here's hopin!

Forgot to mention the fight won't start round 2 prop is for Jordan/May

[NunyaBidness]

What?!?! Who's got lines on video games? I love me some dota.

5dimes did until a couple years ago. Pinny still does. Nitrogensports does.

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Saturday, August 16, 2014 4:59pm

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Saturday, August 16, 2014 8:59pm

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Saturday, August 16, 2014 8:59pm

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[NunyaBidness]

What's the practicality of betting Not OSP by decision at -1250? Would you really risk such a huge amount of money to win $100?

What's funny is many people wouldn't bet a line like this, but they'll take a combination of props that leads to a worse effective line. I see it posted ALL the time.

[Crassus]

What's funny is many people wouldn't bet a line like this, but they'll take a combination of props that leads to a worse effective line. I see it posted ALL the time.

Lies. Bader ITD, OSP ITD, and Bader by decision are all at + odds, how can that be worse than squarezy mcsquare -1250.

[JIBBBY]

Action for tonight:
1.2U on Tom Watson at -120 to gain 1U

0.5U on Tom Watson by decision at +170 to gain 0.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +285 to gain 2.85U

1U on Lauren Murphy at +420 to gain 4.2U

0.5U on McMann ITD at +332 to gain 1.66U

0.25U on Formiga by submission at +625 to gain 1.56U

0.2U on Jack May wins in Round 1 at +240 to gain 0.48U

2U on fight won't start round 2 at -160 to gain 1.25U

0.3U on Tim Boetsch ITD at +700 to gain 2.1U

2.5U on Ross Pearson at -135 to gain 1.85U

0.5U on Ross Pearson ITD at +225 to gain 1.12U

0.25U on Ross Pearson in round 1 at +475 to gain 1.19U

1U on OSP ITD at +210 to gain 2.1U

0.25U on OSP in Round 1 at +575 to gain 1.44U

Nice Crassus and good luck!!!

[JIBBBY]

Bovada props are up on the board now... A few differ from 5D's....

also took -

Saenz to win by 3 round decision +160

[NunyaBidness]

Bovada props are up on the board now...

also took -

Saenz to win by 3 round decision +160

Better price at dimes.

[NunyaBidness]

Lies. Bader ITD, OSP ITD, and Bader by decision are all at + odds, how can that be worse than squarezy mcsquare -1250.

When you're right, you're right.

[JIBBBY]

What's funny is many people wouldn't bet a line like this, but they'll take a combination of props that leads to a worse effective line. I see it posted ALL the time.

I don't like risking too much capital Nunya on straight favorite plays that I really like in MMA especially when they are over the -300 odds mark, so I parlay them up to protect the bank roll.. This strategy has worked out well for me over the years.. 2 - 5 teamers to pay out over even money.... Is it gambling smart to do this in MMA IDK? I'm pretty good at hitting these types of parlays consistently anyways...

If it works, it works...

[JIBBBY]

Better price at dimes.

Yep, I know.. I have a much larger account balance at Bovada though and just grapped it at +160 anyways.. Not too smart on my part...

[Jim_Gunn]

What's funny is many people wouldn't bet a line like this, but they'll take a combination of props that leads to a worse effective line. I see it posted ALL the time.

How is that possible? If one bets a bunch of props in a parlay that gives one high + odds not very low - odds.