UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Saint Preux (August 16, 2014)

[NunyaBidness]

I don't like risking too much capital Nunya on straight favorite plays that I really like in MMA especially when they are over the -300 odds mark, so I parlay them up to protect the bank roll.. This strategy has worked out well for me over the years.. 2 - 5 teamers to pay out over even money.... Is it gambling smart to do this in MMA IDK? I'm pretty good at hitting these types of parlays consistently anyways...

If it works, it works...

You're not understanding what I'm saying.

Pretty awesome that I'm defending your bet and you assume I'm attacking it.

[NunyaBidness]

How is that possible? If one bets a bunch of props in a parlay that gives one high + odds not very low - odds.

When did I say anything about a parlay?

[Crassus]

How is that possible? If one bets a bunch of props in a parlay that gives one high + odds not very low - odds.

Can't bet multiple props of one fight in a parlay. Not to mention it'd be asinine, why have OSP ITD and Bader by Decision in one play?

[Jim_Gunn]

When did I say anything about a parlay?

Well then what is a "combination of props that lead to a worse effective line"? If those are independent prop bets at various odds in unrelated fights how would they be a combination of anything or lead to a worse effective line?

[NunyaBidness]

Well then what is a "combination of props that lead to a worse effective line"? If those are independent prop bets at various odds in unrelated fights how would they be a combination of anything or lead to a worse effective line?

People frequently make bets on order of:
Ross Pearson -175
and a SEPARATE bet of
Maynard by decision +225

But scoff at the idea of betting Not Maynard inside the distance at -1220.

When, in actuality they have made that EXACT bet at -1690.

[latarianmilton]

People frequently make bets on order of:
Ross Pearson -175
and a SEPARATE bet of
Maynard by decision +225

But scoff at the idea of betting Not Maynard inside the distance at -1220.

When, in actuality they have made that EXACT bet at -1690.

that's pretty interesting
i've never hedged my bets but never knew it was like that

[JIBBBY]

You're not understanding what I'm saying.

Pretty awesome that I'm defending your bet and you assume I'm attacking it.

I think several people aren't understanding what you were saying in that above post #307 of yours Nunya..

I also wasn't offended and I didn't think you were attacking my -1250 play... I appreciate the discussion and input coming from you.. I'm still learning what betting strategies work best for me...

[Crassus]

People frequently make bets on order of:
Ross Pearson -175
and a SEPARATE bet of
Maynard by decision +225

But scoff at the idea of betting Not Maynard inside the distance at -1220.

When, in actuality they have made that EXACT bet at -1690.

Wouldn't bet sizes be important for that? If you thought both lines had value (albeit differing) would you just regard them as separate bets?

[Jim_Gunn]

People frequently make bets on order of:
Ross Pearson -175
and a SEPARATE bet of
Maynard by decision +225

But scoff at the idea of betting Not Maynard inside the distance at -1220.

When, in actuality they have made that EXACT bet at -1690.

How are those the same thing? To net $100 profit on a single bet of Not Maynard Inside the Distance one would have to risk a whopping $1220 at this moment on 5Dimes. On the other hand it is very possible to net an amount of money that isn't that much smaller than $100 on a Ross Person moneyline bet + separate bet of Maynard by Decision by risking FAR smaller amounts of money.

[conferi]

Nolan Ticman by KO +600

[NunyaBidness]

How are those the same thing? To net $100 profit on a single bet of Not Maynard Inside the Distance one would have to risk a whopping $1220 at this moment on 5Dimes. On the other hand it is very possible to net an amount of money that isn't that much smaller than $100 on a Ross Person moneyline bet + separate bet of Maynard by Decision by risking FAR smaller amounts of money.

Show your work.

[Jim_Gunn]

When one makes two or more bets including props on different sides of a fight there can be several outcomes depending on the results of the fight. For example in the Pearson/Maynard fight I made multiple bets which I only do rarely:

Person to win (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Pearson wins in round 1 (+475) $10.00 for $47.50
Maynard wins 3 round decision (+327) $37.50 for $122.63
Maynard/Pearson Over 2½ Rounds (-120) $60.00 for $50.00

So in descending order of profitability which in my opinion, also corresponds well with the likelihood of happening:

More likely outcomes:
If Person wins a decision I net $102.50
If Pearson stops Maynard late in round 3 I net $102.50
If Pearson stops Maynard in round 1 I net $50.00
If Maynard wins a decision I net $42.63

Less likely outcomes:
If Pearson stops Maynard in round 2 or early round 3 I lose $7.50
If Maynard stops Pearson late in round 3 I lose $117.50
If Maynard stops Pearson before middle of round 3 I lose $227.50


So overall I feel pretty likely to win at least some money with the more likely outcomes of this fight and this doesn't take into account I might be able to make some more money with live betting. What I can guarantee isn't going to happen though is that I'm not losing $1220 on this one fight!

[NunyaBidness]

Why add all those extra bets and change the prices?

Back to the original posed problem.

Show me how you can win $100 on Pearson SU -175 and Maynard by decision +225 and get a better price than -1220.

[Vaughany]

[BIGDAY]

[getlucky2win]

not maynard itd is -585. i played it at -400

[rocky16]

Think its funny that you phagets sit in this thread and either stroke each other off or cat fight like focking women about picks when I gave out the winning picks in my thread already. Just play the shit slam a line of the good stuff and collect your winnings. Focking queers.

[NunyaBidness]

not maynard itd is -585. i played it at -400

I got that too, on advice of my attorney.

[Jim_Gunn]

Why add all those extra bets and change the prices?

Back to the original posed problem.

Show me how you can win $100 on Pearson SU -175 and Maynard by decision +225 and get a better price than -1220.

Those are my actual bets that I made today. They aren't exactly the same thing as those two bets you listed above so I apologize if I gave the impression that I could contort those two bets and those two bets alone into $100 profit or get a better price than -1220. That wasn't my point at all. But the bets I actually made show the possibility of making around $100 or so with an array of bets that don't risk anywhere near $1220 but that do cover what I consider the most likely outcomes.

[NunyaBidness]

Those are my actual bets that I made today.

Congrats on getting good prices. What your saying isn't really relevant however.

You originally posed, why would someone bet the large not lines at -1xxx or whatever, and I was showing that many people do exactly that at worse prices by betting multiple props.

Yes, finding value on multiple props is a worthwhile. I have Pearson SU at -120 and Maynard decision at +275, which interestingly still doesn't beat the early line of not Maynard ITD at -400.

[marzwoody]

Its Ok boyz Boetsch has been getting coached by the fake irish man Marcus Davis so hes guaranteed to lose.

[Ronald S.]

Congrats on getting good prices. What your saying isn't really relevant however.

You originally posed, why would someone bet the large not lines at -1xxx or whatever, and I was showing that many people do exactly that at worse prices by betting multiple props.

Yes, finding value on multiple props is a worthwhile. I have Pearson SU at -120 and Maynard decision at +275, which interestingly still doesn't beat the early line of not Maynard ITD at -400.

Sometimes make these type of calculations on SFTC when combining odds from different markets and this type of thing still gets me. In your earlier example +225 feels like a pretty big dog so intuitively, it doesn't feel like it should increase the odds as much when "combined" with the -175 but the math doesn't lie. (175/275 + 100/325 = 1687.5/1787.5)

[Jim_Gunn]

Congrats on getting good prices. What your saying isn't really relevant however.

You originally posed, why would someone bet the large not lines at -1xxx or whatever, and I was showing that many people do exactly that at worse prices by betting multiple props.

Yes, finding value on multiple props is a worthwhile. I have Pearson SU at -120 and Maynard decision at +275, which interestingly still doesn't beat the early line of not Maynard ITD at -400.

Are you not taking the amount of money risked into account at all? Betting $1200+ in actual cash money to win $100 is crazy. It's just not the same thing as combining two or more bets that risk a couple of hundred actual cash dollars even if they mathematically both have a high theoretical negative odds value.

Like in this example:

"Yes, finding value on multiple props is a worthwhile. I have Pearson SU at -120 and Maynard decision at +275, which interestingly still doesn't beat the early line of not Maynard ITD at -400."

I honestly don't even know how you did the math to come up with that conclusion. But in one case you can lose $400 actual dollars in a single bet and in another case you might lose a lot less than $400 in the worst case scenario.

[marzwoody]

Agreed with rocky. stop arguing about maths you phaggits.

[NunyaBidness]

Sometimes make these type of calculations on SFTC when combining odds from different markets and this type of thing still gets me. In your earlier example +225 feels like a pretty big dog so intuitively, it doesn't feel like it should increase the odds as much when "combined" with the -175 but the math doesn't lie. (175/275 + 100/325 = 1687.5/1787.5)

There's somebody who gets it.

[JIBBBY]

Think its funny that you phagets sit in this thread and either stroke each other off or cat fight like focking women about picks when I gave out the winning picks in my thread already. Just play the shit slam a line of the good stuff and collect your winnings. Focking queers.

Lol... Rocky why don't you share on the event threads ever and give your own thread a rest?.. Nunya you too?..What every happen to sharing is caring?

Loving this betting discussion between Nunya and Jim Gunn.. It's all in the math...

[JIBBBY]

Its Ok boyz Boetsch has been getting coached by the fake irish man Marcus Davis so hes guaranteed to lose.

Well, that may not be a bad thing.. Best shape I've seen Tim in a long time... Liking his chances still...

[NunyaBidness]

Lol... Rocky why don't you share on the event threads ever and give your own thread a rest?.. Nunya you too?..What every happen to sharing is caring?

Would you rather I share my small market plays that have an ROI of like 80% or my MMA plays that are like 4%?

Emmy's coming up fast.

[JIBBBY]

Would you rather I share my small market plays that have an ROI of like 80% or my MMA plays that are like 4%?

Emmy's coming up fast.

It would be nice to share any of your favorite MMA pics or props on an event thread every once in a while like I'm doing in this one.. I know it takes alot of time and effort to cap and arrive at these picks and it's a bit tough just to give em up for free all the time.. Once in while though I think is just being cool..

If all the talented gamblers share it will give us all a better chance for more probable bet options that maybe some of us has over looked... It's a Win win...

Not too many people look into this forum section anyways.. Don't think lines will move.. All the views are just us all doing repeat look ins probably anyways.. It's no biggie to share.. Most people have their own minds made up by now anyways in this event...

I picked up on a few props on this thread thanks to a couple of guys sharing and am very appreciative win or lose..

[Jim_Gunn]

Lol... Rocky why don't you share on the event threads ever and give your own thread a rest?.. Nunya you too?..What every happen to sharing is caring?

Loving this betting discussion between Nunya and Jim Gunn.. It's all in the math...

I think it's an interesting discussion. I don't know why people want to combine multiple bets into one formula however. I look at the various possible outcomes of a group of bets on one fight as a tree of potential outcomes. Like in my bets on the Perason/Maynard fight there seven potential outcomes with various net results (nine if you count a draw and a N/C as possibilities).

[MD]

It would be nice to share any of your favorite MMA pics or props on an event thread every once in a while like I'm doing in this one.. I know it takes alot of time and effort to cap and arrive at these picks and it's a bit tough just to give em up for free all the time.. Once in while though I think is just being cool..

If all the talented gamblers share it will give all us all a better chance for more probable bet options that maybe some of us over looked... It's a Win win... Not too many people look into this forum section anyways.. Don't think lines will move.. All the views are just us all doing repeat look ins probably anyways.. It's no biggie to share.. Most people have their own minds made up by now anyways in this event...

I picked up on a few props on this thread thanks to a couple of guys sharing and am very appreciative win or lose..

Oh my God, stop begging in every thread.

Why not just do your own work, figure things out on your own, then ask Nunya or another experienced gambler for advice when you get stuck? Seems to have worked for the rest of the regs; the only person I remember begging on SBR was Gabe, and that didn't turn out too well. History doesn't lie.

[MD]

I think it's an interesting discussion. I don't know why people want to combine multiple bets into one formula however. I look at the various possible outcomes of a group of bets on one fight as a tree of potential outcomes. Like in my bets on the Perason/Maynard fight there seven potential outcomes with various net results (nine if you count a draw and a N/C as possibilities).

Google "EV".

[rocky16]

Lol... Rocky why don't you share on the event threads ever and give your own thread a rest?.. Nunya you too?..What every happen to sharing is caring?

Loving this betting discussion between Nunya and Jim Gunn.. It's all in the math...

Pal why would I duplicate efforts? I don't have time to argue about who's pekker is the biggest. Focking dick measuring contest up in here. Shit is played out. One phaget is giving math lessons like he's focking will hunting or some shit. I gave my winners out already. I have the hoers lined up and the cocaine is on the coffee table. I'm ready to roll like an alpha stud.

[JIBBBY]

Oh my God, stop begging in every thread.

Why not just do your own work, figure things out on your own, then ask Nunya or another experienced gambler for advice when you get stuck? Seems to have worked for the rest of the regs; the only person I remember begging on SBR was Gabe, and that didn't turn out too well. History doesn't lie.

The biggest kiss arse leach on the board has something to say... Gees what a surprise!!!! Your practically licking the sweat off Nunya's sack when posting in reference to him every time I'm reading in..

Not begging MD just prompting us all to share.. Don't care at this point as all my bets are already in.. I do my own dirty work 99 percent of the time and if you would read this entire thread and pay attention you would know that already....

Another mindless troll post from MD with absolutely nothing to offer up towards this event or his bet picks.. Figures...

[MD]

The biggest kiss arse leach on the board has something to say... Gees what a surprise!!!!

Not begging MD just prompting us all to share.. Don't care at this point as all my bets are already in.. I do my own dirty work 99 percent of the time and if you would read this entire thread and pay attention you would know that already....

Another mindless troll post from MD with absolutely nothing to offer up towards this event or his bet picks.. Figures...

JIBBBY, stop begging. No one's going to just make your bets for you. We're not here to babysit you son.