TUF : Nations great value parlay

[NunyaBidness]

Beginners tend to make that mistake a lot; "my bankroll isn't big so I don't need to follow bankroll management." You should consider the difference between a positive expectation and a negative expectation; if you're wagering, why make a bet that you're expecting to lose money on? For any amount? If your friend offered to give you $20 every time his coin landed on tails as long as you gave him $25 when it lands on heads, would you do it? It's just $20, right?

You'll be surprised by this, but I disagree somewhat.

When bankrolls are really small or prizes become really large utility becomes a more important consideration than traditional bankroll management.

If I know I can pick winnerz at 55%, but can only spare 50$ a week out of my salary in order to bet them, it becomes worthwhile to take some big risks on long shot parlays because a large bankroll gained quickly will be more profitable in the longrun.

[MD]

You'll be surprised by this, but I disagree somewhat.

When bankrolls are really small or prizes become really large utility becomes a more important consideration than traditional bankroll management.

If I know I can pick winnerz at 55%, but can only spare 50$ a week out of my salary in order to bet them, it becomes worthwhile to take some big risks on long shot parlays because a large bankroll gained quickly will be more profitable in the longrun.

Do you disagree, though?

If you could only spare $50 a week out of your salary to gamble with, I'm positive that you'd get a second job. When your projected profit is lower than what you'd earn flipping burgers, you should be flipping burgers for a while, if you're serious about gambling.

[MD]

Which bets lost? you mean the card, where nearly everyone lost money and most of the underdogs won? I could care less about anyone else's opinions, so why would i post plays to entertain people? iv'e grown out of that phase, don't have the time to respond to doubters who shut up after the events over i have way better things to do with my time, like watching the fights and counting the doh afterwards but hey i'm not a bitch, anyone asks me what bets i'm making before an event i will gladly reply.

Make bet -> Count the d'oh!

Probably sounds like Moe's Tavern in your mom's basement while UFC is on.

[marzwoody]

Make bet -> Count the d'oh!

Probably sounds like Moe's Tavern in your mom's basement while UFC is on.

Mums basement? is that where you live dude? funny your apparently from Ireland and you spell, mum, mom. to much time conversing with your american friends over the interwebs?

[Skel]

lol, "count the d'oh"

[marzwoody]

I like counting d'oh.

[MD]

[NunyaBidness]

Do you disagree, though?

If you could only spare $50 a week out of your salary to gamble with, I'm positive that you'd get a second job. When your projected profit is lower than what you'd earn flipping burgers, you should be flipping burgers for a while, if you're serious about gambling.

Why do you quote me back to me so often? This is what I've said for years on the board and in PMs to you.

Even if you were working 3 jobs to build your bankroll, it still may be worth it to 'take shots' to get your bankroll soaring, especially if your bankroll is a) replaceable and b) growing slowly, but only if c) you have a proven edge.

Utility isn't looked into enough when gambling in general, and can throw a lot of EV calculations out of whack.

Take for example a typical casino bonus, deposit $50 get a $50 bonus, with 40x playthrough. The correct way to play this assuming your bankroll is large enough that losing $50 is meaningless is to bet the entire $100 in one hand. But if you win, isn't betting $200 now the correct play? And then $400? According to the EV model you would continue doubling your bet to $3200. While $50 may be meaningless, $3200 rarely is. The EV model has broken down, and utility comes into play.

[FightFightFight]

I said it was in the five figures or something and da haterz ran with 10K, it was unfortunately more than that, enough to tilt me badly when the 49-46 card was read out as for Henderson. Probably shouldn't even have posted the five-figures comment at the time, but I really didn't care and was extremely annoyed about the decision. Definitely the most tilted I've ever been in sports betting. Oh well, at least Marz has something to make fun of me for while he continues to not gamble on this gambling forum.

Like to hear the book that allowed 10k live. BS.

[FightFightFight]

Personally, I think you meant would have won 10k, thus "costing you 10k", someone misunderstood, and u ran with it. Getting old now.

[marzwoody]

It was NOWHERE near a 10 grand D'oh though, and that's all that matters buddy. in fact the loss didn't bother me at all,

[MD]

Why do you quote me back to me so often? This is what I've said for years on the board and in PMs to you.

Even if you were working 3 jobs to build your bankroll, it still may be worth it to 'take shots' to get your bankroll soaring, especially if your bankroll is a) replaceable and b) growing slowly, but only if c) you have a proven edge.

Utility isn't looked into enough when gambling in general, and can throw a lot of EV calculations out of whack.

Take for example a typical casino bonus, deposit $50 get a $50 bonus, with 40x playthrough. The correct way to play this assuming your bankroll is large enough that losing $50 is meaningless is to bet the entire $100 in one hand. But if you win, isn't betting $200 now the correct play? And then $400? According to the EV model you would continue doubling your bet to $3200. While $50 may be meaningless, $3200 rarely is. The EV model has broken down, and utility comes into play.

Because it's what you said you'd do if your bankroll was under a certain figure. And pfft, "so often".

I agree with you as far as utility is concerned, and I'm certainly in no disagreement that if you're serious about gambling, taking shots while working jobs to build your bankroll can be a positive.

Like to hear the book that allowed 10k live. BS.

Name a few books that allow livebetting on which getting down 10K on the Thomson/Henderson fight was not possible. Go on, I'll wait.

Might want to fact check before saying something so stupid.

[marzwoody]

Why do you quote me back to me so often? This is what I've said for years on the board and in PMs to you.

Even if you were working 3 jobs to build your bankroll, it still may be worth it to 'take shots' to get your bankroll soaring, especially if your bankroll is a) replaceable and b) growing slowly, but only if c) you have a proven edge.

Utility isn't looked into enough when gambling in general, and can throw a lot of EV calculations out of whack.

Take for example a typical casino bonus, deposit $50 get a $50 bonus, with 40x playthrough. The correct way to play this assuming your bankroll is large enough that losing $50 is meaningless is to bet the entire $100 in one hand. But if you win, isn't betting $200 now the correct play? And then $400? According to the EV model you would continue doubling your bet to $3200. While $50 may be meaningless, $3200 rarely is. The EV model has broken down, and utility comes into play.

You go Nunya. ON FIRE

[MD]

Personally, I think you meant would have won 10k, thus "costing you 10k", someone misunderstood, and u ran with it. Getting old now.

I was pretty clear in my original phrasing.

Can we start an I Hate Bendo club?

The guy has murdered me in splits versus Frankie, Gil and now Josh. I've lost $10K thanks to BS judging.

I lost more than that on this fight.

I'm actually legitimately annoyed. I dislike him strongly right now, even though I know how irrational that is.

If you want to think I'm lying, go ahead, but you should fact-check first. A lot of fact-checking.

[FightFightFight]

Ridiculous. Bmaker and 365. I was looking at the same screens, and could barely get down any. Bm was only in between rounds, and was difficult to bet at all. 365 has low limits, was under 500 or so per bet. Post the tickets. Its a lie.

[Beelzebubzy]

Marzy be quiet

There is a time and place to be heard. This isn't one of them.

Sit in your chair and take notes. Like I told you via pm read through the lines and learn
You will thank me in 5 years when you can bet 100 on a fight

[MD]

Ridiculous. Bmaker and 365. I was looking at the same screens, and could barely get down any. Bm was only in between rounds, and was difficult to bet at all. 365 has low limits, was under 500 or so per bet. Post the tickets. Its a lie.

You sure about that?

I got down 7000€ in one bet on the Johnson/Moraga fight. Pull your head out of your ass.

Limits are higher on 365 than any other betting site I've ever seen for MMA.

[FightFightFight]

Yes. Very. I was there, betting the same line. Post it.

[MD]

Yes. Very. I was there, betting the same line. Post it.

Oh? What were your limits on that fight, then? Were you betting the limit?

And obviously I'm not going to post my tickets from months ago just to prove a point to you. I wouldn't post the tickets if I had made the bet five minutes ago. Nunya also lost five figures live betting that fight and said so himself in the event thread. If you can't work out how that's possible, you're not too good at this "gambling" thing.

[NunyaBidness]

Ridiculous. Bmaker and 365. I was looking at the same screens, and could barely get down any. Bm was only in between rounds, and was difficult to bet at all. 365 has low limits, was under 500 or so per bet. Post the tickets. Its a lie.

I dunno about 365. But I managed to get 6 bets in on Thomson at +105, +133, +182, +612, +616, +900.

[Vaughany]

Yes. Very. I was there, betting the same line. Post it.

365 limits different people different amounts as is the norm so maybe uve just been limited? Im limited to pennies on there from soccer betting yearsa go, so i have never bothered to check the live betting for mma on bet365.

[NunyaBidness]

FightFightFight, since you seem to be the only one who uses both sites, would you say that 365 and Bookmaker have the same live betting platform for MMA or is it different?

[Beelzebubzy]

I thought Bookmaker limits to 5k per bet on live?

I am guessing that you can rehit the lines once it changes.

[FightFightFight]

365 is to win, so a ticket on Johnson like that live would be to win about 1000. Same for dogs, its a to win max. I was able to max it twice, for a few hundred each time. Progressively less each time as they moved the line. You should know this, but clearly dont. You know. I know. Not so loud please.

[MD]

365 limits different people different amounts as is the norm so maybe uve just been limited? Im limited to pennies on there from soccer betting yearsa go, so i have never bothered to check the live betting for mma on bet365.

They let you past that, though, right? If you exceed your max on Bet365, they'll allow the bet and then refer the excess to a trader. Have you tried that?

[FightFightFight]

Not sure exactly what a platform is tbh, but Id say no, as they offer different props??

[FightFightFight]

365 has extensive live betting options through many sports i dont bet. Probably cream of the crop software. Different.

[marzwoody]

Marzy be quiet

There is a time and place to be heard. This isn't one of them.

Sit in your chair and take notes. Like I told you via pm read through the lines and learn
You will thank me in 5 years when you can bet 100 on a fight

That's not very nice my good friend Beez, If i wanted to learn i would of asked a question this is just banter, and i have bet more then 100 lolz your cute

[Vaughany]

They let you past that, though, right? If you exceed your max on Bet365, they'll allow the bet and then refer the excess to a trader. Have you tried that?

Yeeah i tried it once but was still only able to be 50 squid or sumin.

[FightFightFight]

I may be, but doubt I'm limited. Have never noticed a reduction. I lost there at the start of my account, luckily.

[NunyaBidness]

Not sure exactly what a platform is tbh, but Id say no, as they offer different props??

That's pretty much what I mean. I've never seen it, and so often the lines seem to be exactly the same (as mentioned in this forum) that I wondered if they were drawing from the same source.

[NunyaBidness]

I thought Bookmaker limits to 5k per bet on live?

I am guessing that you can rehit the lines once it changes.

It seems to bounce around, sometimes I can bet $500, sometimes $1000, sometimes $2500. Don't remember ever being able to bet 5k. Used to be able to bet big on 5d live, but now limited to $250, not sure if thats everyone or just me tho.

[MD]

FightFightFight, since you seem to be the only one who uses both sites, would you say that 365 and Bookmaker have the same live betting platform for MMA or is it different?

I use both, and it's different. 365 often (but not always) offers props between rounds, but the prices vary significantly from Bookmaker's. It's a good idea to keep both, between them and 5D you get some amazing opportunities.

365 is to win, so a ticket on Johnson like that live would be to win about 1000. Same for dogs, its a to win max. I was able to max it twice, for a few hundred each time. Progressively less each time as they moved the line. You should know this, but clearly dont. You know. I know. Not so loud please.

Clearly don't know what? I'm confused by what you're saying here. Are you suggesting that 365 will lower your limits after resetting the line if you rebet it?

[Beelzebubzy]

It seems to bounce around, sometimes I can bet $500, sometimes $1000, sometimes $2500. Don't remember ever being able to bet 5k. Used to be able to bet big on 5d live, but now limited to $250, not sure if thats everyone or just me tho.

I havent checked in a while nor am I a 5k bettor. Just curious.

But i think you are right. I think its depending upon the event.

[FightFightFight]

I dunno about 365. But I managed to get 6 bets in on Thomson at +105, +133, +182, +612, +616, +900.

Not bad. Probably why I couldnt! Still totalling far less than 10 k.