UFC 162 Silva Vs Weidman (July 06, 2013)

[Dwil125]

edgar is a t-rex with no leverage but he will win this fight easy as penetrate.....Edgar -1300....is what the line should be

Edgar isn't a t rex by any means, he has very long arms for his size and height. His reach is 72 inches or 6 inches more then his height. His reach is actually pretty close to his opponents, the height is more significant since he's 5 inches shorter.

[Sacrelicious]

Realistically I cap edgar in the -1000 to -1200 range, this fight is a joke.

[Thor4140]

Realistically I cap edgar in the -1000 to -1200 range, this fight is a joke.

Any chance i can see u and everyone else's ticket stub who is taking Edgar?

[MD]

Any chance i can see u and everyone else's ticket stub who is taking Edgar?

Why would you doubt that people are betting Edgar, but not doubt that they're betting, say, Weidman?

Here's a max bet on Edgar (250 limit when lines first open, obviously):



Doesn't really mean anything. Anyone with even a working knowledge of Photoshop could produce a 5D ticket that is indiscernible from a real one to the naked eye.

[Tommy Blingshyne]

i have Edgar -400 straight up but more importantly in the last leg of a 25 spot open parlay i started a month or 2 ago...a $25 goof mixed w/ MMA, French Open, Boxing etc...mostly just tremendous favorites so the payout isnt great for such a big parlay but $25 will get me a little more then $1225 so ill take it...guess the smart play would be to bet around $275 (didnt figure the exact math) on Olive Oil at +425 odds to hedge but the jackass in me wants to let it ride because i feel that strongly that Edgar wins this fight...better to walk away w/ $900 and change guaranteed then potentially lose out completely but i also hate throwing away an additional $275 or so when i feel so confident in who wins...the 2nd to last leg of the fight was the broner boxing match...obviously i had broner but i was tempted to toss a few hundo on his opponent at +850 odds to hedge but broner was such a big favorite i opted out and my heart almost dropped when i saw he won only by split decision...the degen in me wants to let it ride...the rational person in me think this is a no brainer hedge spot...

[Sykes]

Id let that ride man, Oliveira quits when he gets hit hard, Frankie has great boxing stopped Maynard, I wouldnt be hedging then again I dont got $800+ guaranteed on it.

[Das Jax]

Is anyone on any of the prop bet options at 5dimes? I'm looking at the Silva/Weidman fight in particular. It's a tough fight to call (though I'm leaning Silva), but I'm sorely tempted by the crazy odds for both fighters if the fight ends in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds. Is anyone considering this or would these be considered degenerate plays?

Also, R.I.P Jim Kelly:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/enter-dragon-actor-jim-kelly-577773

[ArchieUD]

I'm playing "will start round 2" and "will start round 3". I haven't calculated (lazy) but usually you are better of playing a single bet than paying the vig to combine two if you are unsure wether Silva or Weidman will be the one to finish. Another eksample "fighter A wins itd" is most of the time better than sprinkel on "by sub" and "by t/ko".

[Sykes]

Is anyone on any of the prop bet options at 5dimes? I'm looking at the Silva/Weidman fight in particular. It's a tough fight to call (though I'm leaning Silva), but I'm sorely tempted by the crazy odds for both fighters if the fight ends in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds. Is anyone considering this or would these be considered degenerate plays?

Also, R.I.P Jim Kelly:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...m-kelly-577773

Dennis Siver vs Cub Swanson - 3 rounds - UFC 162 propositions

Fight won't go 3 round distance

+100

[Das Jax]

Makes sense about the inside the distance option, but I was specifically looking at both the Silva and Weidman winning in those rounds. 5d has Silva's respective odds at +875, +1475, and +2275. Weidman's are +1650, +2250, and +3050. I really don't think the fight will be decided in the early rounds, but with a five round fight, I also don't see it going the distance. I don't want to pay the vig by betting both halves of those bets, but with the odds being what they are, I'm leaning towards seeing a value on placing equal bets on all six. If any one of them hits, they'll pay for the other bets... and then some.

Also, and I'm not sure why this is, but rather than bet "will start round 3" at -130, it would seem preferable to choose the "over 2.5 rounds" option at +125 (all odds are off 5dimes). If I don't make the bet I referenced above, this is probably the route I'll take as I really don't see the fight ending in the early rounds.

[Das Jax]

I'm playing "will start round 2" and "will start round 3". I haven't calculated (lazy) but usually you are better of playing a single bet than paying the vig to combine two if you are unsure wether Silva or Weidman will be the one to finish. Another eksample "fighter A wins itd" is most of the time better than sprinkel on "by sub" and "by t/ko".

I just reread your post and wanted to emphasize that, while I agree with you in theory, the high odds they're giving would seem to supersede the conventional wisdom in this instance.

[ArchieUD]

Also, and I'm not sure why this is, but rather than bet "will start round 3" at -130, it would seem preferable to choose the "over 2.5 rounds" option at +125 (all odds are off 5dimes). If I don't make the bet I referenced above, this is probably the route I'll take as I really don't see the fight ending in the early rounds.

Misread. Don't know if there is a calculator for converting o2 rounds (start rd 3) too2,5 rounds, but I prefer not to sweat out the early rd 3

[Das Jax]

Dennis Siver vs Cub Swanson - 3 rounds - UFC 162 propositions

Fight won't go 3 round distance

+100

I like this a lot... thanks for the heads up. I'm 90% sure I'm tailing you on this.

[ArchieUD]

I just reread your post and wanted to emphasize that, while I agree with you in theory, the high odds they're giving would seem to supersede the conventional wisdom in this instance.

Well, if you divide say 100 bucks on the six selections you mention it will pay about +200 if you play the same 'to win' amount on all six. Seems like a better choice than to play o2,5 @ +125 to cover decisions

Also, be aware that o2.5 means starting rd 3 + 2 min 30 sec..

[fitguy67]

DJ & Archie...an interesting bet combination for the idea that Weidman/Silva will finish ITD-but-late (that has me goin' in "if/then" circles) is:

A. o2.5 rounds, +125................................eg. -80/+100
and
B. fight won't go 5-round distance, -300...eg. -240/+80

possible results are -140/0/+180...basically making your bet a "late ITD" @+129 with a bonus-push for an "early ITD" result as B would then offset A

fight going the full distance--which most here think rather unlikely--is the only losing result and it's considerably cushioned vs. taking B. naked

________
feedback pls

[Dwil125]

Odds out on sportsbook

[MD]

Couple of weird and/or inflated lines, but mostly exactly what I expected. Let's go 5D. Got some lines to pound.

[goodfellas433]

I don't use sportsbook anymore but if 5d odds were identical...is there anything you would still like?

[MD]

5D lines will be very similar, they usually are. Wouldn't expect them to be radically different to the Sportsbook lines.

[Thor4140]

Why would you doubt that people are betting Edgar, but not doubt that they're betting, say, Weidman?

Here's a max bet on Edgar (250 limit when lines first open, obviously):



Doesn't really mean anything. Anyone with even a working knowledge of Photoshop could produce a 5D ticket that is indiscernible from a real one to the naked eye.

I don't doubt a few bet him but when everyone talks like he is a lock but won't bet him unless it is in a parlay makes me wonder if they know what it means to say "he is a lock"

[MD]

I don't doubt a few bet him but when everyone talks like he is a lock but won't bet him unless it is in a parlay makes me wonder if they know what it means to say "he is a lock"

That's not necessarily because they doubt his lock status, it may be because a lot of people think that anything over some arbitrary number is too juicy to bet straight and has to be put in a parlay.

[Thor4140]

i'll say another thing about the Edgar fight. When DSI, Cris, and bookmaker have him at the lowest line, run quick and run fast, for the exit. Maybe someday you boys will know what that means

[The iron sheik]

oh ...so 5d doesn't fix directly with the judges and refs but those companies do. Alrighty then...

PS. What about pinnacle? I like them, I think they're cute. Are they clean?

[getlucky2win]

not munoz itd

[MD]

Lines are out on 5D. Hit them, they moved in my favour, hit them again, they moved in my favour. Excuse me while I finish rubbing one out.

[NunyaBidness]

Lines are out on 5D. Hit them, they moved in my favour, hit them again, they moved in my favour. Excuse me while I finish rubbing one out.

We should probably just save money and bet against eachother without the juice.

[Thor4140]

oh ...so 5d doesn't fix directly with the judges and refs but those companies do. Alrighty then...

PS. What about pinnacle? I like them, I think they're cute. Are they clean?

i never said anything about 5 dimes ya dumb dik. That was ur buddy and u are running with it like a pigeon that got plucked.

[PunisherIND]

We should probably just save money and bet against eachother without the juice.

lol

[Vaughany]

Pal, I don't get into focking "percentages." I see the matchup, I see where strengths and weaknesses are. Weidman holds more advantages. If you want me to focking outline the focking fight for you just hit me up via PM. No need to let me explain shit in this focking phaget forum. Stop being some god damn elitist MMA fock.

How much you got on Weidman playa?

[The iron sheik]

i never said anything about 5 dimes ya dumb dik. That was ur buddy and u are running with it like a pigeon that got plucked.

Yes, that's why I mentioned it because you excluded it. Not that hard to figure is it?
So do the books you listed fix, and 5d doesn't?

[Thor4140]

Yes, that's why I mentioned it because you excluded it. Not that hard to figure is it?
So do the books you listed fix, and 5d doesn't?

Stay on topic now it is fight week

[rocky16]

How much you got on Weidman playa?

Not much pal. Focking kids are running me dry lately. Hit the Weidman by sub prop +1600. Limit was only $50. Then I threw $250 on Weidman +210. So only $300 in total. My kids are 5 and 3, so I'll get them out of the focking house soon to start working. They act like the live in a focking hotel or some shit. Lazy ass bastards.

[rocky16]

Weidman hits a choke and I'm going to choke my cack. Would be a $1325 windfall.

[Vaughany]

Not much pal. Focking kids are running me dry lately. Hit the Weidman by sub prop +1600. Limit was only $50. Then I threw $250 on Weidman +210. So only $300 in total. My kids are 5 and 3, so I'll get them out of the focking house soon to start working. They act like the live in a focking hotel or some shit. Lazy ass bastards.

lol

[Crassus]

Boetsch vs Munoz, what's the rumpus? I'm tempted Munoz.