GuidaClayAllDay's Plays

[Vaughany]

TUF China Finale Plays:

[GuidaClayAllDay]

Thanks for the kind feedback sirs

UFN 37 Plays:

[BIGDAY]

I think Seery has a shot too.

[Vaughany]

Picketts wrestling saved him

[BIGDAY]

Damn Wrastlers.

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFN 37 Results:

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFC 171 Plays:

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFC 171 Results:

[Wilbo86]

Just wondering whats your reasoning for not prop betting, no time? Seems you've got what it takes, and it could only help your profitability?
My prop betting was initially negative EV but with time and experience its become more lucrative than my straight plays.

[fitguy67]

My prop betting was initially negative EV but with time and experience its become more lucrative than my straight plays.

hey, Wilbo86...any chance u start a picks thread...

good documented "+EV over the haul" threads of wagers placed and posted with accurate prices as available at 5dimes-reduced before match times, like this one, are hard to come by...

so one more would always be welcome...all the better if you have a different (prop-emphasizing) focus

[Wilbo86]

Hmmm maybe but not likely anytime soon. I want a bit more confidence before i go guns blazzing, I'm OK but still consider myself pretty green.

Also I place/record all my bets using European odds, and that doesn't seem to be the done thing around here. Its easy to convert them but still for the life of me can't understand why american odds even exist. Maybe they're OK once you're familiar with them, but they're so much less intuitive.

You have a thread fitguy?

[NunyaBidness]

Its easy to convert them but still for the life of me can't understand why american odds even exist. Maybe they're OK once you're familiar with them, but they're so much less intuitive.

Funny, I would say the exact same thing about European odds.

[Vaughany]

Funny, I would say the exact same thing about European odds.

Me too and Im European

[NunyaBidness]

Me too and Im European

If shops don't take Euros there, it ain't Europe.

[Vaughany]

good point, im a butter-tooth

[MD]

I prefer to use the Marz system.

"Condit: -Guaranteed money you f-cking idiots
Woodley: +Terrible bet, Condit won round one"

[Wilbo86]

Funny, I would say the exact same thing about European odds.

Guess it must just be familiarity then...

Side note, thread successfully hijacked

[fitguy67]

good documented "+EV over the haul" threads of wagers placed and posted with accurate prices as available at 5dimes-reduced before match times, like this one, are hard to come by...

Side note, thread successfully hijacked

Hey Guida...terrific exhibition of solid MMA pickin', pal...

one thing tho...and we've asked you before, nicely...please start using 5dimes-REDUCED prices...

if someone gives half a shit about betting MMA they'll get a goddam 5d account...and if they have 5dimes and an iq higher than their shoe size (even their Euro-format shoe size) they'll avail themselves of the better prices

10 clicks on damn-near every play u've called...you are under-stating your results quite dramatically...

mega props...the anti-tout gene is strong with you! but in the interest of accuracy...we prefer that you use the reduced prices when they are available

[fitguy67]

regarding american (eg. -137) cf. european (eg. 1.73) odds format...it's good to develop fluency with both formats and be able to quickly convert because they each shine in different aspects of the betting game...

this is the best primer i've ever found on the topic (not useful because of the calculator...but because, after a little work, you'll never need one again...just keep a little credit-card sized shopping calculator and you can move around the American/European/Implied-Probability formats effortlessly)

http://www.intensegambling.com/sports-betting/online/tools/odds-converter/

I've found Euro format wins hands down as a quick bridge to implied odds...reciprocal of the euro-format and you're done...
ditto, calculating accumulated/parlayed/multi-selection odds...multiply them and you're done...

on the other hand, if when you're ever interested in hedging out a position...you can't beat american format...
you entered at -137...the useful "exactly break even" benchmark price for the opposite side of the play is dead-simple in American format...+137...just change the sign and you know when price has moved into the green zone

when i'm scouting a position, and i'm thinking in terms of implied prob i definitely want to see the price as 1.73...same if i'm thinking of putting it in a parlay, i can immediately see the % effect on the payout...

but when i'm thinking of locking in some profit on something i bought early that has moved nicely in my favor
or being a pussy and fully "greening out" on the last leg of my 17-leg parlay...it's the American format i want

[Wilbo86]

if someone gives half a shit about betting MMA they'll get a goddam 5d account...and if they have 5dimes and an iq higher than their shoe size (even their Euro-format shoe size) they'll avail themselves of the better prices

If you happen to know, what are the regulatory hoops that need to be jumped through to get a 5d account for an international? I assume there are identification requirements etc?

[Wilbo86]

Good point about the hedge as well, never considered that.

[Vaughany]

If you happen to know, what are the regulatory hoops that need to be jumped through to get a 5d account for an international? I assume there are identification requirements etc?

I dont recall there being any (Im UK). But I havent withdrawn anything yet so maybe I'll have to do loads of that kind of shiit when I try to withdraw. My account is with Sportbet (same as 5dimes basically) and all I did was registerd then deposit through neteller

[MD]

I've withdrawn and deposited with 5D from Europe dozens of times with no ID required.

[fitguy67]

damn, i'm a points whore cuz theyre 80c/day as a pro (half of that otherwise)...when converted into sportsbook cash with a small rollover...i usually try to make at least one post every calendar day...screwed up last night...posted close to midnight...if beforee and after it counts as two days...just noticed all three of my posts yesterday were before...and i discover this now, of course a few minutes after the next midnight...the things i coulda' done with those extra 12 points=80c with 5x rollover...think i'm gonna go on tilt now

[NunyaBidness]

damn, i'm a points whore cuz theyre 80c/day as a pro (half of that otherwise)...when converted into sportsbook cash with a small rollover...i usually try to make at least one post every calendar day...screwed up last night...posted close to midnight...if beforee and after it counts as two days...just noticed all three of my posts yesterday were before...and i discover this now, of course a few minutes after the next midnight...the things i coulda' done with those extra 12 points=80c with 5x rollover...think i'm gonna go on tilt now

You don't have to post to get points, just have to log in.

[fitguy67]

you're right Nunya (i did get my 12pt fix)...never knew that...i guess logging in and NOT posting is in many cases much more of a "forum contribution" than the actual mean-spirited and/or downright-stupid things many people take the trouble to post...(less of a bad thing IS indeed a good thing)

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFN 38 Plays:

[GuidaClayAllDay]

Hey fitguy thanks for the kind words, I understand by stating the standard juice lines that I am understating my profits but I prefer to keep posting my picks in this format. The sharps that know how to get a better line can adjust their betting size accordingly.

[Sykes]

your on Siler? Jason gonna murder someone if he loses this one.

[fitguy67]

for those-unbound by residency restrictions, best books for pre-fight comparison shopping are

*pinnacle, obviously...but not so obviously are these two "nice to have" outs
*william hill (i just got Parke at -225), and
*matchbook(where i could have got him at -224.4 = the posted -220 with the effective 2% "tax" worked in)

if you have only 1 book for MMA, it's gotta be 5d, and if you can, you gotta have pinny as well...but each additional out you have in your stable means points saved on each card (not just in bigger wins...but--just as importantly--in smaller losses too)...i've found these two (willy and matchy) to be my best "off the bench" outs...and seem to be useful at least once a card...

i'd love to have unibet up and running as well, but can't due to my e-wallet getting killed in my country for gaming transactions...isn't it wonderful how government pretends to protect us (from ourselves) while in fact creating/protecting monopolies for its "pig at the trough" friends? aaarrrghhh...but that belongs in the "editorial rant" subforum

[Vaughany]

for those-unbound by residency restrictions, best books for pre-fight comparison shopping are

*pinnacle, obviously...but not so obviously are these two "nice to have" outs
*william hill (i just got Parke at -225), and
*matchbook(where i could have got him at -224.4 = the posted -220 with the effective 2% "tax" worked in)

if you have only 1 book for MMA, it's gotta be 5d, and if you can, you gotta have pinny as well...but each additional out you have in your stable means points saved on each card (not just in bigger wins...but--just as importantly--in smaller losses too)...i've found these two (willy and matchy) to be my best "off the bench" outs...and seem to be useful at least once a card...

i'd love to have unibet up and running as well, but can't due to my e-wallet getting killed in my country for gaming transactions...isn't it wonderful how government pretends to protect us (from ourselves) while in fact creating/protecting monopolies for it's "pig at the trough" friends? aaarrrghhh...but that belongs in the "editorial rant" subforum

William hill, skybet, and especially boylesports are the best for being slow to move lines (such as ur Parke example).
uniber was good while it lasred but i got limited after making about £200

[fitguy67]

William hill, skybet, and especially boylesports are the best for being slow to move lines (such as ur Parke example).
uniber was good while it lasred but i got limited after making about £200

search and replace "unibet" with "marathon"...in the chickenshit "winners NOT welcome" department...i had a similar experience at marathon...got cut to 1euro after a very modest run with very modest bet-sizes...couldn't believe they took the trouble to see 'lil ole me as a threat

[Vaughany]

search and replace "unibet" with "marathon"...in the chickenshit "winners NOT welcome" department...i had a similar experience at marathon...got cut to 1euro after a very modest run with very modest bet-sizes...couldn't believe they took the trouble to see 'lil ole me as a threat

You could replace them with any euro book for me...biggest i can bet is about £80 -£120 on some soccer games on paddy power and big mma fights. Skybet limit is £25 to £75. Every other site is pennies. Just use pinnacle and sportbet now

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFN 38 Results:

[GuidaClayAllDay]

UFC on Fox 11 plays: