GuidaClayAllDay's Plays

Grabaka · 02-22-13, 11:29 PM

Welcome Pal.

fitguy67 · 02-22-13, 11:50 PM

will definitely check back 11-ish tomorrow

Beelzebubzy · 02-23-13, 12:08 AM

A new guy who admits a losing night?

Hell froze over

fitguy67 · 02-23-13, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by GuidaClayAllDay

...
To reduce volatility I never bet more than 20% of my bankroll.

Before someone else mis-interprets this and flies off the handle, let me ask you to clarify...

you either mean
A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card,

OR you mean...

B. 20% maximum is possible on some (very rare) plays...meaning your max-play discipline limits you to going NO MORE THAN "one-fifth in" in such strong-play cases...keeping 80% of your roll free and you still very-much in business should the play fail to perform

or you might mean...

C. something else
___________
I know you're busy capping now...this is not urgent at all...but i'd like to know what you meant when you have time.

For now...i'm really looking forward to your output.

Best of luck on your SBR debut...hope you turn around the huge -0.34 units hole you dug yourself into last card

...

Beelzebubzy · 02-23-13, 10:47 AM

This guy posts at 2+2
he is for real. He's done well.

BIGDAY · 02-23-13, 11:04 AM

Guy is a sharp.

BIGDAY · 02-23-13, 11:12 AM

Guy will be on Hendo.

GuidaClayAllDay · 02-23-13, 11:26 AM

Thanks for all the kind words guys. Promise to answer questions/concerns in a couple hours.

Here are my plays for UFC 157.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 11:31 AM

I dig it. I'm on all the same, except I have kos in some parlays.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 11:33 AM

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

GuidaClayAllDay · 02-23-13, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Before someone else mis-interprets this and flies off the handle, let me ask you to clarify...

you either mean
A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card,

OR you mean...

B. 20% maximum is possible on some (very rare) plays...meaning your max-play discipline limits you to going NO MORE THAN "one-fifth in" in such strong-play cases...keeping 80% of your roll free and you still very-much in business should the play fail to perform

or you might mean...

C. something else
___________
I know you're busy capping now...this is not urgent at all...but i'd like to know what you meant when you have time.

For now...i'm really looking forward to your output.

Best of luck on your SBR debut...hope you turn around the huge -0.34 units hole you dug yourself into last card

...

Thanks for the kind words fitguy.

"A. you discipline yourself to putting a maximum of 20% of your roll in play (all positions considered) on one event's card" is what I meant. You will see people off the edge after a rough night but the key to longevity is reducing your bet size and carrying on.

For tailing purposes I wouldn't encourage anyone to risk more than 1/5th of their roll per event. I could see the rare occasion where one perceives the expected value to be so large that risking over 20% of their bankroll makes sense but I rather be more risk-adverse when recommending plays to tail.

sideloaded · 02-23-13, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

or rousey by sub, if cartoonshe didnt get ko'd by kaufman or young, rousey aint doin' it

GuidaClayAllDay · 02-23-13, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

One question, why 3 units on Rousey instead of Rousey ITD? The line on ITD is 230 cents better.

For tailing purposes I am only going to recommend straight wagers, as not everyone has access to prop lines. I believe 5dimes is a good choice to generate lines from because most people have access to 5dimes, and pinny's lines tend to beat 5dimes lines so Pinny users can generate even better returns

FWIW I have a little exposure to Rousey ITD, but the bets I recommend are the exact bets I am making.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 02:47 PM

Got it. Well, I do believe them to be solid, I suspect it will be a winning night for you.

sideloaded · 02-23-13, 02:50 PM

your username sucks though, clay guida is a bane to mma fans and should be cut. His 'fighting' is 10x worse than jon fitch.

yes he had exciting fights, but all those were against guys better than him and he just gets beat up in a exciting manner.

he lost to hatsu and should be headlining xfc cards.

penetrate clay guida.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

your username sucks though, clay guida is a bane to mma fans and should be cut. His 'fighting' is 10x worse than jon fitch.

yes he had exciting fights, but all those were against guys better than him and he just gets beat up in a exciting manner.

he lost to hatsu and should be headlining xfc cards.

penetrate clay guida.

Hey, easy there, dont be insulting Jon Fitch like that, hes easily 17 or 18 times better then "the carpenter".

GuidaClayAllDay · 02-23-13, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

your username sucks though, clay guida is a bane to mma fans and should be cut. His 'fighting' is 10x worse than jon fitch.

yes he had exciting fights, but all those were against guys better than him and he just gets beat up in a exciting manner.

he lost to hatsu and should be headlining xfc cards.

penetrate clay guida.

lol harsh. I've had this moniker forever and use it on every mma-related forum I visit, so it would be a pain to start fresh.

sideloaded · 02-23-13, 03:23 PM

nah i was just messing with you

MD · 02-23-13, 03:28 PM

Welcome to the forum buddy. Watch out for jiggy, he'll get ya. Looking forward to reading more of your plays.

As for your plays tonight, how can you see value in Rousey -1100? Especially when it's very possible that Carmouche will take over the fight if it gets out of the first round (as unlikely as that is).

That line is silly.

jakejd82 · 02-23-13, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

or rousey by sub, if cartoonshe didnt get ko'd by kaufman or young, rousey aint doin' it

I agree, Rousey by sub is the only way to take her. She is not going to KO Liz

Beelzebubzy · 02-23-13, 10:23 PM

looking good

Beelzebubzy · 02-24-13, 12:16 AM

congrats

brokenbrain · 02-24-13, 01:01 AM

Well done, dude!

GuidaClayAllDay · 02-24-13, 02:37 PM

Thanks guys! Didn't see the event yet but everything went our way.

I'll have plays for UFC on Fuel 8 next week.

MMAbetMASTA · 02-24-13, 08:23 PM

impressive flawless night amigo, great start to your thread

BarrCanada · 02-24-13, 09:07 PM

Nice Picks !

Vaughany · 02-25-13, 05:18 AM

Welcome MrGuidaClayAllDay!

fitguy67 · 02-25-13, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Welcome MrGuidaClayAllDay!

an aussie would say,
a slightly different way,
MrGuidaClayAllDay,
g'day, eh?!

hey,
which makes a nice segway (yes, i know it's spelled segue...but can't be subtle on a hawgsize-fixated forum)
okay...

thinking about Aussies, seems like there are lots real-deal Aussie-chicks in Invicta that have great TD-defence + striking (the recipe to unravel Rousey)...any chance whatever that Zuffa goes out of their way to bring in anything other than TomatoCans for the next foreseeble half-dozen "title fights"...as they continue to orchestrate her image in line with all the "superlative MMA superlative of any gender" talking-points they force their talking-heads to parrot

i gather there's money to be made betting WWE...the line between that and UFC is starting to blur

SportsEntertainmentMarketing2Morons with Predictable-if-not-Pre-dicted Results (a series of "the little tomato cans who could..." fairy tales for Rhonda to armbar)...

oops, got carrie AWAY...(he said, ending with a nice rhyming-word PLAY)

by the way, soduku is gay

Vaughany · 02-25-13, 11:59 AM

bet limits are much lower for WWE though as far as im aware

PunisherIND · 02-25-13, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

an aussie would say,
a slightly different way,
MrGuidaClayAllDay,
g'day, eh?!

hey,
which makes a nice segway (yes, i know it's spelled segue...but can't be subtle on a hawgsize-fixated forum)
okay...

thinking about Aussies, seems like there are lots real-deal Aussie-chicks in Invicta that have great TD-defence + striking (the recipe to unravel Rousey)...any chance whatever that Zuffa goes out of their way to bring in anything other than TomatoCans for the next foreseeble half-dozen "title fights"...as they continue to orchestrate her image in line with all the "superlative MMA superlative of any gender" talking-points they force their talking-heads to parrot

i gather there's money to be made betting WWE...the line between that and UFC is starting to blur

SportsEntertainmentMarketing2Morons with Predictable-if-not-Pre-dicted Results (a series of "the little tomato cans who could..." fairy tales for Rhonda to armbar)...

oops, got carrie AWAY...(he said, ending with a nice rhyming-word PLAY)

by the way, soduku is gay

Brah, thought you said "sengoku" for a second. It was about to be on.

Vaughany · 02-25-13, 12:30 PM

haha same

fitguy67 · 02-25-13, 12:36 PM

yeah, i know...the WWE/UFC line-blurring i was referring to is the WWE=pre-determined contests vs. UFC=easy-to-predict-from-a-marketing-angle contests

I predict Zuffaboys to produce a hyped-up series of cans for Rousey to armbar (all the while conveniently ignoring real talent in Invicta and elsewhere that would threaten their new commodity)...

hasn't happened yet...and maybe i'm underestimating the integrity of Dana and company to put sports over "sports entertainment marketing"...hope i'm wrong...

but i won't bet on it. in fact, i'll keep betting on Rousey fights exactly AS IF they were WWE-fixed fights...ie. Rousey ITD...with one big advantage...much better limits...cuz these next half dozen fights will effectively be works (chicks will try but will be hand-selected to have crap TDDefence and less-than-dangerous striking...Rousey's judo-prowess will do the rest, making the fight essentially a work)

fitguy67 · 02-25-13, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

Brah, thought you said "sengoku" for a second. It was about to be on.

nah, it was a "co-inky-dink" as Curly of the 3Stooges would say...

Soduku is to poetry...as Sumo is to wrestling (ie. an over-praised lame-assed version)

i'll take a dirty limmerick (A naughty young man from Nantucket...etc etc)
anyday over pretentious Soduku

MD · 02-25-13, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

an aussie would say,
a slightly different way,
MrGuidaClayAllDay,
g'day, eh?!

hey,
which makes a nice segway (yes, i know it's spelled segue...but can't be subtle on a hawgsize-fixated forum)
okay...

thinking about Aussies, seems like there are lots real-deal Aussie-chicks in Invicta that have great TD-defence + striking (the recipe to unravel Rousey)...any chance whatever that Zuffa goes out of their way to bring in anything other than TomatoCans for the next foreseeble half-dozen "title fights"...as they continue to orchestrate her image in line with all the "superlative MMA superlative of any gender" talking-points they force their talking-heads to parrot

i gather there's money to be made betting WWE...the line between that and UFC is starting to blur

SportsEntertainmentMarketing2Morons with Predictable-if-not-Pre-dicted Results (a series of "the little tomato cans who could..." fairy tales for Rhonda to armbar)...

oops, got carrie AWAY...(he said, ending with a nice rhyming-word PLAY)

by the way, soduku is gay

No.

Also, no offence, but I tried to read the rest of your posts in this thread and I just couldn't. It hurt my eyes.