4 team parlay.

[Sacrelicious]

JDS/Glover/Rousey/GSP.

+180 at 5D.

Pounding the shit out of this.

[MD]

Out of curiosity, what percentage chance do you give each of those fighters to win?

[PunisherIND]

JDS/Glover/Rousey/GSP.

+180 at 5D.

Pounding the shit out of this.

sacko, i dont understand the play. assuming you find value in all 4 lines, still, i would play jds in a single. i dont see a reason to put him in the parlay. rousey itd will obviously have better value than the straight line, so i would wait for the prop on that one.

glover+gsp looks better to me.

[gabe]

Glover + Belcher + Consta + Rashad

and two 3 teamers, one with Belcher and one with Consta; bigger on Belcher one.

[Vaughany]

Glover + Belcher + Consta + Rashad

I cant see Rashad finishing Lil Nog....Rashad by decision for me

[MD]

Posting REAL MAN parlays.

				Win	12/15/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Hector Lombard -230* vs Rousimar Palhares
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision
				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm Props Fighting 1107 Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +155* vs Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision

+4100.

				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision

+1600.

Although with the Weidman cancellation, the odds for both presumably dropped.

[gabe]

I expect you'll be hedging with Dodson and Edgar

[MD]

I expect you'll be hedging with Dodson and Edgar

I don't hedge parlays. I think Dodson and Edgar are going to get smashed, though.

[gabe]

I don't hedge parlays. I think Dodson and Edgar are going to get smashed, though.

I think Dodson wins. I think Aldo wins, but value is with Franklin Edgaritez.

[Grabaka]

I think Dodson wins. I think Aldo wins, but value is with Franklin Edgaritez.

Agree and kinda loled at Edgaritez

[Sacrelicious]

Out of curiosity, what percentage chance do you give each of those fighters to win?

The only variable here is JDS.

Glover should be about -400.

The rousey line is correct.

GSP should be about -700.

[Sacrelicious]

As for JDS, -250.

[Vaughany]

I think Dodson wins. I think Aldo wins, but value is with Franklin Edgaritez.

I thought you didnt deal in "values"?

[Sacrelicious]

Gabes MMA picks dont seem to be valid.

[MD]

The only variable here is JDS.

Glover should be about -400.

The rousey line is correct.

GSP should be about -700.

You just asked me in another thread what "value" is, and if it's really profitable to bet on plays that are likely to lose. If that's the case, why are you pounding a parlay that will lose the majority of the time?

[Broxbomber]

I cant see Rashad finishing Lil Nog....Rashad by decision for me

I agree.

Rashad will dominate Lil Nog. I like Rashad by decision a lot since this is a 3 round fight. Lil Nog has lots of miles on him already and Rashads speed will kill. Lil Nogs toughness is what I expect to make it go the 3 rounds. If it was a 5 rounder I would go Rashad ITD.

[Sacrelicious]

Elaborate.

[MD]

Elaborate.

Your parlay misses, by your perceived odds, 55% of the time.

[Sacrelicious]

Its entirely possible then that I have a lot to learn.

Again, as I have stated, I'm not a gambler, I'm an MMA fan who bets on MMA.

We will see what happens.

[MD]

Its entirely possible then that I have a lot to learn.

Again, as I have stated, I'm not a gambler, I'm an MMA fan who bets on MMA.

We will see what happens.

'Tis all good. It's entirely possible to make good profit on MMA without applying gambling theory. Instinct-based bettors make up a small but notable amount of the sharp population. Although if this were baseball, you'd be f-cked.

[gabe]

I thought you didnt deal in "values"?

Frankie Edgar has a legit chance at winning, he has value.

Stephan Bonnar and whoever was fighting Joe Warren had pretty much no chance at winning, so they had no value.

I often find real value plays, especially when the valued dog should be the rightful favorite; i.e. Beltran over Pokrajac, Siver over Nunez, Siyar over Thiago, Colton over Ricci, Shabulat over Richman, Lavar over Beltran, Lavar over Barry, Hettes over Phan, Caceres over Escovedo, Nurmagomedov over persian dude, etc.

[Sacrelicious]

Well thats exactally it.

Its why I bet on MMA.

I dont believe the sport is properly handicapped or understood.

[Sacrelicious]

Frankie Edgar has a legit chance at winning, he has value.

Stephan Bonnar and whoever was fighting Joe Warren had pretty much no chance at winning, so they had no value.

I often find real value plays, especially when the valued dog should be the rightful favorite; i.e. Beltran over Pokrajac, Siver over Nunez, Siyar over Thiago, Colton over Ricci, Shabulat over Richman, Lavar over Beltran, Lavar over Barry, Hettes over Phan, Caceres over Escovedo, Nurmagomedov over persian dude, etc.

Gabe, as much as I dont particularly like your picks.

Frankie edgar doesnt have a "chance" of winning.

Frankie Edgar will win.

[gabe]

Gabes MMA picks dont seem to be valid.

You don't seem to be a person who isn't dumb.

[gabe]

Gabe, as much as I dont particularly like your picks.

Frankie edgar doesnt have a "chance" of winning.

Frankie Edgar will win.

you didn't like my 12-3 night on friday? dang.

[Sacrelicious]

Yeah and then you lost it the next day, good work.

That being said, Frankie Edgar will win this fight.

[Crassus]

Rampage is gonna KO Glover.

[Sacrelicious]

Rampage is gonna KO Glover.

BS.

[MD]

BS.

Don't let the hype fool you. Glover is not an elite fighter. Which of these fighters do you think he beats more than 50% of the time? Rashad Evans, Alexander Gustafsson, Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, Phil Davis.

[PunisherIND]

Glover + Belcher + Consta + Rashad

and two 3 teamers, one with Belcher and one with Consta; bigger on Belcher one.

"consta" just doesnt sound right. guy must have got picked on a lot as a kid.

[NunyaBidness]

P
a
m

[gabe]

Yeah and then you lost it the next day, good work.

That being said, Frankie Edgar will win this fight.

You didn't like Nelson/Mitrione o2.5, Poirier/Brookins o2.5, etc.? You's a fool, son. Those plays cash 8 out of 10 times

[gabe]

Don't let the hype fool you. Glover is not an elite fighter. Which of these fighters do you think he beats more than 50% of the time? Rashad Evans, Alexander Gustafsson, Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, Phil Davis.

All except Jon Jones.

[MD]

All except Jon Jones.

Oh lawd.

[Mercersux]

Oh lawd.

He's not serious is he...?