UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez (Dec 29)

[Dwil125]

What do you guys think about the undercard lines that are released? I think Erik Perez shouldnt be that big of a favorite over anyone

[Mercersux]

Pickett as a dog...sign me up.

Seriously. Pickett wins this fight imo. Set up a rematch with Barao after he rolls against Mcdonald. Thinking we don't see Cruz in the cage till summer. If we get a Cruz-Barao match by late spring then Pickett gets winner of that fight.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

What do you guys think about the undercard lines that are released? I think Erik Perez shouldnt be that big of a favorite over anyone

well he is

[DirtyX]

Belcher almost got submitted by Patrick Cote and only got out because Cote made an amateur mistake from the top. His TDD is...sub-par, Okami could definitely get the sub or TKO if I can get Okami ITD at more than +350 I'd grab it.

Belcher has great sub defense. As stated, I believe he was letting Cote advance on purpose. He handled Palharris, who I consider one of the most dangerous guys on the ground in MMA period. Granted, he almost got subbed before he TKOed him. I think Belcher is a great bet here. POUND! If Okami is victorious, then it will most likely be by decision, not Sub. Okami by decision or Belcher by KO would be my props, but I would recommend Belcher straight up.

[Dwil125]

I saw the line locksmith that's why i mentioned it, I was just wondering what everyone else thought.

[Rubber Guard]

I too think Belcher is the better fighter. But it is a tough bet. Would have been nice at + money. But Okami's stock has declined. Okami is still doing what he was doing when he was a perennial top 3-5 MW. He now has a better jab. i'm just worried about Belcher's TDD. If he can match him there he is better in pretty much all other aspects. Punching power, kicks, speed, combos, chin.....overall grappling/subs may be a bit of a wash. One is a very good control fighter. The other is a fairly legit BB with decent sub skills.

That all said, Okami is still a top 5-7 MW. He still usually fights smart and out-grapples most anyone not named Sonnen.

Anyone have a strong opinion on Belcher's TDD and how he may match up with Okami?

[Bradbatross]

I put a decent sized bet on Belcher but now I'm getting worried. I re-watched some Belcher fights and I fine he can be inconsistent in the cage and make dumb mistakes. I think there's no doubt that Okami will be able to take Belcher down but I don't think he'll be able to hold him there. Belcher has improved so much though i wouldn't be surprised if he gets a couple take downs on Okami. I think Belcher squeezes by with a split decision.

And plus, Belcher is dangerous everywhere, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first to submit Okami. Okami has one way to win, Belcher has many.

[Judgejoebrwn]

I put a decent sized bet on Belcher but now I'm getting worried. I re-watched some Belcher fights and I fine he can be inconsistent in the cage and make dumb mistakes. I think there's no doubt that Okami will be able to take Belcher down but I don't think he'll be able to hold him there. Belcher has improved so much though i wouldn't be surprised if he gets a couple take downs on Okami. I think Belcher squeezes by with a split decision.

And plus, Belcher is dangerous everywhere, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first to submit Okami. Okami has one way to win, Belcher has many.

I had to go with Belcher as well. After seeing him survive, arguably manhandle, Palhares within Palhares' domain, then go on to finish the fight in the first round...dude has my respect bigtime. There's a lot more to be said about a performance like that than a recent KO over a nobody in Buddy Roberts. I got Belcher early at +110 and he's now up to -115ish. Loving the line movement here.

[Broxbomber]

Belcher by Decision?????

Belcher by decision is currently at +230. Even though Belcher usually wins by TKO or Sub, I see Okami being tough enough to survive as Okami will try to smother Belcher. I think the fight will go to decision but Belcher will win it.

What do you guys think?

[PunisherIND]

merry christmas! da menace at -210 right now.

[Dwil125]

wow that line jumped

[Dwil125]

Where did you find -210 though, I only see -250

[Vaughany]

Where did you find -210 though, I only see -250

it was 5dimes/sportbet. Only takes 1 or 2 max bets to move it again

[Rubber Guard]

Miller by dec is being insanely undervalued based just on numbers. Lauzon fights most always don't see the cards, but he is due for a dec. Skill wise I don't see where Miller finishes him in a 3 round fight, unless Joe L gasses hard. Which he is capable of doing. But if you like Miller we are talking -220 straight to +258 by dec. Unless you think there is a giant gap between Miller and Lauzon I don't see how by dec. isn't value.

[NunyaBidness]

Miller by dec is being insanely undervalued based just on numbers. Lauzon fights most always don't see the cards, but he is due for a dec.

No one is ever 'due' for anything.

Love watching roulette tables. Black comes up 4 times in a row, half the guys scream out that red is DUE! The other half are screaming about how HOT black is!

[Dwil125]

I'm throwing miller via decision in a parlay in addition to my other bets on miller. Even with lauzon tired later in the fight, I dont see miller finishing him. I think hes going to end up on bottom for most of the third until the rounds over.

[PunisherIND]

bumping this because two more lines were released. still waiting for holloway/garcia

Here comes the rest:

[PunisherIND]

Velasquez wins by TKO/KO* +310
Dos Santos wins by submission* +2850
Boetsch wins by 3 round decision* +246
Varner wins inside distance* +246

[MMAbetMASTA]

No idea if true but Bas Rutten apparently filling in for Goldie!...

I guess you all have already heard that I'll be filling in for Goldie with Rogan at 155. It is a real honor to back in the UFC.

god speed.
Bas

sick haha... hope this is true and he really is commentating, love el guapo!!!

[Vaughany]

sick haha... hope this is true and he really is commentating, love el guapo!!!

ha Dont think it's true...none of the news sites have reported it or UFC so must of been hacked

[Beelzebubzy]

Stann -205
hendricks same
hunt +120 might as well wait for ko prop

[MMAbetMASTA]

like cariaso at + or even money...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

wow, Cain getting near +200 at some books

[Educ8d Degener8]

...
hunt +120 might as well wait for ko prop

will be +121...

[Vaughany]

will be +121...

haha

[Educ8d Degener8]

haha

All joking aside, if Hunt is +120, his KO/TKO line will likely be, what, +125 or +130... iirc, based on the prop pricings of his last couple fights.

Absolutely no value in waiting for the prop, as +120 is basically the same as +130.




Ok, that last bit was meant intentionally to provoke Nunya and the other cerebrals...

[Vaughany]

Also, the TKO/KO line might end up worse than the current moneyline. In this case probably not as I expect Struve will action up to -200 range due to his recent run

[PunisherIND]

Stann -205
hendricks same
hunt +120 might as well wait for ko prop

Broham, this thread is dedicated to ufc 155. this is a serious violation.

[Vaughany]

Broham, this thread is dedicated to ufc 155. this is a serious violation.

yee pretty unforgivable

[Educ8d Degener8]

yee pretty unforgivable

Vaughn, get all Sherdog-mod on him and ban him.

[Vaughany]

I'll wait and see how that Thor dude reacts who goes crazy whenever somebody posts some news and doesn't put in the relevant "news" thread!

[thes0vereign]

JDS bulked up a little bit.

[PunisherIND]

I'll wait and see how that Thor dude reacts who goes crazy whenever somebody posts some news and doesn't put in the relevant "news" thread!

[v1y]

if gsot can finish lauzon, so can miller. i am picking miller by decision though.

[omalley21]

I like miller by decision too. I think he plays it somewhat safe compared to other fights.