MLB System Strategies

**Tommygunn** · 06-09-12, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

FYI:
Take a look at the discrepancy in innings pitched, when there's a differential of over 15 to 20 innings pitched
I have found the numbers os stats, on a play not to be true.
If you look up P/T today on ST... with TEX and SFO the numbers are good
on SFO but I have them as a no play due to IP DIF of > -43 on Feldman
compered to Vogelsong..
So I am throwing the stats on this play, out the window?
All of you, should be doing the same thing.

Maybe we should just use a standard filter of 20IP? I just threw out ARZ out of money line after reading your post.

**HoulihansTX** · 06-09-12, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

Moneyline System

(8/06/12) - 1-2 -1.50 units (Pitt, Bos, Cinn did not qualify)
YTD April 24-Current - 55-62 for -15.65 units

L2W2 - NP's (Both Arz and Tex did not qualify)
YTD(May 21 start) 6-5, +0.53 unit

Today's Plays (9/06/12)

Atl if -130 to -150

Det if Cinn +100 or > (np if >-150)

NYY if -140 to -150

Stl if -135 to -150

Pitt -135 to -150???

**joeytunes** · 06-09-12, 12:00 PM

yesterday 6/8
-.50 units 4-4

Ytd 72-108 -2970

Bal <-150 L -1.2
Pit<-121 W +1.0
Wash < -101 W +1.0
Tb <-150 W +1.0
Min <-150 W +1.0
Stl < -150 L -1.3
Laa <-150 W +1.0
Sf <-107 L -1.0
Lad < -105 L -1.0

Today 6/9
Min <-150
Phl <-150
cin <-144
Stl <-150

Filters

Lad sea w2
Oak ...ariz w3

**joeytunes** · 06-09-12, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Pitt -135 to -150???

mazzaro under 20ip

**HoulihansTX** · 06-09-12, 12:07 PM

Yup.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-12, 08:13 AM

H/A Plays went 1-1 yesterday 0.00
YTD 34-21 +10.76u
CLE L
TAM W

P/T Plays went 2-1 yesterday +0.93u
YTD 58-42 +18.86u
PHI L
LAD W
STL W

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-12, 09:19 AM

Whether they will win or lose?
Nice value, on some quality pitchers today.

TAM (J Shields) +106
TOR (R Romero) -109
PIT (A Burnett) -115
And DET offense, against CIN

**joeytunes** · 06-10-12, 09:28 AM

how fixed is boxing???

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-12, 09:36 AM

Today’s H/A Plays
Filter no play if > -150
WAS
PIT
DET

Today’s P/T Plays
Filter no play if > -150
WAS
TEX

**joeytunes** · 06-10-12, 10:46 AM

yesterday 6/9 2-2 -.1

YTD 74-110 -29.80

yesterday 6/9
Min <-150 W 1.0
Phl <-150 L -1.1
cin <-144 L -1.0
Stl <-150 W 1.0

Today 6/10

Bal <-123
Wash<-125
Hou<-172
Sd<-142
Tex<-150
Lad<-130

Filters

Col L4
ChcL4
Kc L3

**HoulihansTX** · 06-10-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

May 15 - Current
Overall
(66-53) +15.70Units

June 9
Bullpen Proj Sys
SF (-105) 5.48 W
NYY (-170) 5.35 NP>-150
Brew (-150) 4.55 L
Cleve (+125) 3.24 L
Cincy (+130) 3.10 L
Sea (+120) 2.02 L
AtL (-140) 1.44 W
Wash (-110) 1.39 W

___________________________
Overall
(51-62) -21.30Units

TPR
TX (-105) 1.7 L
Zona (-140) 1.6 W
Bos (+100) 1.3 L
NYY (-170) 1.2 NP>-150

May 15 - Current
Overall
(69-57) +12.80Units

June 10
Bullpen Proj Sys
SF (+120) 5.48
Sea (-105) 3.32
Cleve (+100) 3.24
Cincy (-120) 3.10
Atl (+100) 2.96
Tampa (+105) 1.21
Minny (-140) 1.08

No Play
NYY np>-150 4.72
Brew np>-150 4.55
KC npL3 2.65
Colo npL4 2.12
CWS np>-150 1.50
Oak npL2 1.82
___________________________
Overall
(52-64) -22.35Units

TPR
TX (-130) 1.7
Zona (-150) 1.6
StL (-110) 1.3

No Play
Bos npL2 1.3
Colo npL2 1.2
NYY np>-150 1.2
KC npL3 1.3

**ShivaBowl** · 06-10-12, 04:16 PM

**Tommygunn** · 06-10-12, 10:33 PM

Sorry guys, the last few sunday's have been too busy to post. All I missed anyway was a couple more losses. Here's what today's ML plays were:

Moneyline System

(9/06/12) - 1-0 +1.0 unit (Det, NYY and Stl did not qualify)
YTD April 24-Current - 56-62 for -14.65 units

L2W2 - NP's
YTD(May 21 start) 6-5, +0.53 unit

Today's Plays (10/06/12)

Phi
Sea

**Tommygunn** · 06-10-12, 10:34 PM

And Yeah Joey what a joke. This was already being printed today.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-12, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by joeytunes

Today 6/10

Bal <-123
Wash<-125
Hou<-172
Sd<-142
Tex<-150
Lad<-130

J/T, Excellent day for S/A yesterday! 6-0

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-12, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Whether they will win or lose?
Nice value, on some quality pitchers today.

TAM (J Shields) +106
TOR (R Romero) -109
PIT (A Burnett) -115
And DET offense, against CIN

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Today’s H/A Plays
Filter no play if > -150
WAS
PIT
DET

Today’s P/T Plays
Filter no play if > -150
WAS
TEX

H/A Plays went 3-0 yesterday +3.73u
YTD 37-21 +14.49
WAS +155 WIN
PIT -123 WIN
DET +118 WIN

P/T Plays went 2-0 yesterday +2.55u
YTD 60-42 +21.41u
WAS +155 WIN
TEX –127 WIN

Nice value, on some quality pitchers today.
TAM (J Shields) +106 WIN
TOR (R Romero) –109 WIN
PIT (A Burnett) –115 WIN
And DET offense, against CIN, WIN

Today’s H/A Plays
Filter no play if > -150
WAS ½ u

Today’s P/T Plays
Filter no play if > -150
No Plays

**HoulihansTX** · 06-11-12, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

May 15 - Current
Overall
(69-57) +12.80Units

June 10
Bullpen Proj Sys
SF (+120) 5.48 L
Sea (-105) 3.32 L
Cleve (+100) 3.24 W
Cincy (-120) 3.10 L
Atl (+100) 2.96 L
Tampa (+105) 1.21 W
Minny (-140) 1.08 L

___________________________
Overall
(52-64) -22.35Units
TPR
TX (-130) 1.7 W
Zona (-160) 1.6 NP>-150
StL (-110) 1.3 L

May 15 - Current
Overall
(71-62) +9.20Units

June 11
Bullpen Proj Sys
Wash (+140) 1.45

No Play
Bos npL3 3.19
Atl npNYYW3 1.37

___________________________
Overall
(53-65) -22.45Units
TPR
NYY (-115) 1.1

No Play
Bos npL3 1.3

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-12, 08:41 AM

Shiva Plays YTD 15-7 +$1,547.50
Ugly Dog thread 97-82 +$324.44
H/A YTD 37-21 +$1,449.00
P/T YTD YTD 60-42 +$2,141.00
Total: +$5,461.94 on the year.

**joeytunes** · 06-11-12, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

[ATTACH]43322[/ATTACH]

And Yeah Joey what a joke. This was already being printed today.

gues who wont watch that..me!! or any other match..i cant believe vegas has to book that poitics? if u cant book politics why book boxing

**HoulihansTX** · 06-11-12, 11:17 AM

I will never purchase a boxing match again. Thought the fight became boring after the 8th round when t was obvious pac-man had a huge lead in the points. Pac was less aggressive, and no longer interested himself. The reaction of his wife in between rounds said it all. She knew her hisbnd was getting dominated.

**joeytunes** · 06-11-12, 04:10 PM

yesterday 6/10 5-1 +5.4u

YTD 79-111 -24.4

yesterday 6/10

Bal <-123 W 1.3
Wash<-125 W 1.5
Hou<-172 W 1.6
Sd<-142 L -1.0
Tex<-150 W 1.0
Lad<-130 W 1.0

today 6/11

wash <-160
Nyy <-139

**joeytunes** · 06-11-12, 04:13 PM

SA +13.7U over the last week!

**Tommygunn** · 06-11-12, 04:48 PM

Moneyline System

(10/06/12) - 0-2 -2.46 units
YTD April 24-Current - 56-64 for -17.11 units

L2W2 - NP's
YTD(May 21 start) 6-5, +0.53 unit

Today's Plays (11/06/12)

No Plays

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Tommygunn
[B

Today's Plays (11/06/12)[/B]
No Plays

Hey TG, I could make a case tonight for a M/l play on Washington. The projected money line is only -120 on TOR
My interpretation is play on WAS if >+145 or no play if
TOR <-145
Maybe we should just be looking for a $.25 overlay
On either side?

**Tommygunn** · 06-11-12, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Hey TG, I could make a case tonight for a M/l play on Washington. The projected money line is only -120 on TOR
My interpretation is play on WAS if >+145 or no play if
TOR <-145
Maybe we should just be looking for a $.25 overlay
On either side?

Shiva that means that actually Toronto would be the play tonight. They're projected at -120 and finished at -163. This means the money has moved .43 cents in Tor favor. Tor is not a play though since they are >-150. Your thinking of the SA approach in which your looking for the better value for your money.

Even if you wanted to use the inverse of the line like we do for the SA we would say that Wash's projected ML would be +120. This means that in order for Wash to be a play their line would have to move to -105 just before game time. As you can see it's not even close.

I will look at playin the inverse instead of always basing plays off the home teams line. At this point I don't think it will make much of a difference. I know the ML systems been awful so far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it turn around pretty soon when the public starts getting a better handle of this years trends. For now as I mentioned earlier I'm not playing it until it heats up.

**ShivaBowl** · 06-11-12, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

Shiva that means that actually Toronto would be the play tonight. They're projected at -120 and finished at -163. This means the money has moved .43 cents in Tor favor. Tor is not a play though since they are >-150. Your thinking of the SA approach in which your looking for the better value for your money.

Yes you're right because you're basing the line off the home team and with that in mind the proj is only -120 +25 equals a play on WashingtonI'm just trying to figure out a way to get the money line system back on track.
No big deal.

**joeytunes** · 06-12-12, 07:25 AM

YTD 81-111 -22.9 +16.2 units last 8 days

yesterday 6/11
2-0 +2.5 u
wash <-160 W +1.5
Nyy <-139 W 1.0

Today
S/A Plays
PIT If > +126 PIT W/4 BAL W/2
NYY If < -150
CWS If < -150
HOU If > +141
Filtered
Oak L3
Mets L3

**HoulihansTX** · 06-12-12, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

May 15 - Current
Overall
(71-62) +9.20Units

June 11
Bullpen Proj Sys
Wash (+150) 1.45 W

___________________________
Overall
(53-65) -22.45Units
TPR
NYY (-115) 1.1 W

May 15 - Current
Overall
(72-62) +10.70Units

June 12
Bullpen Proj Sys
Zona (+170) 2.88
Minny (+105) 1.42

No Play
Tampa np>-150 5.47
KC npL4 4.66
LAD npLAAW4 2.77
Cincy np>-150 2.27
Pitt npBalty W2 2.22
SF np>-150 2.12
Atl npL2 1.75
Bos npL43 1.69
___________________________
Overall
(54-65) -21.45Units
TPR

No Play
Colo npL5 2.2
Balty npPittW4 1.3
Bos npL4 1.3
Yanks np>-150 1.1
TX npZonaW5 1.0

**ShivaBowl** · 06-12-12, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by joeytunes

YTD 81-111 -22.9 +16.2 units last 8 days

yesterday 6/11
2-0 +2.5 u
wash <-160 W +1.5
Nyy <-139 W 1.0

Today
nyy<-150
ariz<-179
det<-117 prob wont get there
Stl<-150 prob wont get there
Hou<-141

Filtered
Oak L3
Mets L3
Pitt against a W2

S/A Plays
PIT If > +126 PIT W/4 BAL W/2
NYY If < -150
CWS If < -150
HOU If > +141

CIN N/P L-2
NYM If > +146 N/P NYM IP < -20
CHC If < -117 N/P DET W-2
PHI N/P L-2
SEA N/P L-2

**ShivaBowl** · 06-12-12, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

June 12
Bullpen Proj Sys
Zona (+170) 2.88
Minny (+105) 1.42

No Play
Tampa np>-150 5.47
KC npL4 4.66
LAD npLAAW4 2.77
Cincy np>-150 2.27
Pitt npBalty W2 2.22
SF np>-150 2.12
Atl npL2 1.75
Bos npL43 1.69
___________________________
TPR

No Play
Colo npL5 2.2
Balty npPittW4 1.3
Bos npL4 1.3
Yanks np>-150 1.1
TX npZonaW5 1.0

FYI: BPR
I dont use the no play filter if > -150 for BPR
I use the BPR system as a handicapping tool. EX: TAM, BPR numbers are good today.

FYI: TPR
NYY is a play if NYY < -150

**ShivaBowl** · 06-12-12, 08:44 AM

H/A Plays went 1-0 yesterday +. 76u
YTD 38-21 +15.25u
WAS +152 W

P/T Plays went 0-0 yesterday
YTD 60-42 +21.41u
No Plays

Today’s H/A Plays
Filter no play if > -150
PIT W-4 BAL W-2 its up to you?
ARI
LAA
SFO

Today’s P/T Plays
Filter no play if > -150
NYY
MIA
DET ½ u
MLW

**Hectorcist** · 06-12-12, 09:28 AM

Great job guys. Keep up the good work.

**Tommygunn** · 06-12-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

Yes you're right because you're basing the line off the home team and with that in mind the proj is only -120 +25 equals a play on WashingtonI'm just trying to figure out a way to get the money line system back on track.
No big deal.

Even if you wanted to use the inverse of the line like we do for the SA we would say that Wash's projected ML would be +120. This means that in order for Wash to be a play their line would have to move to -105 just before game time. As you can see it's not even close.

**Tommygunn** · 06-12-12, 02:16 PM

Moneyline System

(11/06/12) - No Plays
YTD April 24-Current - 56-64 for -17.11 units

L2W2 - NP's
YTD(May 21 start) 6-5, +0.53 unit

Today's Plays (12/06/12)

Mia if -115 to -150

Minn if -110 to -150

LAA if LAD +100 or >

**ShivaBowl** · 06-13-12, 06:19 AM

H/A Plays went 0-3 yesterday –3.13u
YTD 38-24 +12.12u
PIT+130 L
ARI +137 L
LAA –113 L
SFO –172 W N/P

P/T Plays went 1-3 yesterday –2.18u
YTD 61-45 +19.23u
NYY –149 W
MIA –103 L
DET ½ u –145 L
MLW –143 L