MLB System Strategies

[ShivaBowl]

MLB System Strategies;

Source: Sportrends
You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you.

One of the reasons baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies. Our system analysis will pinpoint when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate.

Baseball is terrific for the number of statistics that are tracked during each game and they can paint a detailed picture of what to expect from teams offensively and defensively nearly every game.

Here you will be getting the Key advice and Handicapping Insights you need to win?
Our systems provide alternative strategies strictly based on statistics.
There are No Hunches, No Guesswork, No Opinions, Just Facts.
BOL

[ShivaBowl]

MLB System Strategies

We apply our own filters to these systems, but for the most part we follow them as they've have been written.

These systems are free for all to use and you don't have to apply our filters.

Please remember these systems are free and if we make any money with them it should be considered a gift.

If you have any ideas about ST systems or how to improve them please post your thoughts.
This is an open forum and you are all welcome to post your ideas.

Please respect the wishes of SBR and do not post any outside links in this forum, only SBR links are allowed.
Thank You

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Projected Money
One of the most important tasks the handicapper undertakes is that of analyzing line movement -- when is it moving, how much and most importantly, why? Let's break it down into three categories: early, normal, and very late moves.
The first people to get a crack at the early or opening lines are big time bettors. They generally act as a good indicator of which direction lines will continue to move, allowing the educated bettor to get the best lines available.
Next we have the normal line moves, which occur from the end of the early period, until perhaps an hour or two before game time. These moves again occur exclusively because of money, but it is a different type of money. This is where the public is influential – Normal line moves are very important to track, because they offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting on.
Late line moves are those in the timeframe immediately preceding game time and are influenced by "Betting Syndicates" or so called “Wiseguys”. When lines move off of key numbers, somebody knows something about this game that is not necessarily available to the general public.
Often very late line moves go in the opposite direction of earlier moves. These are moves that we generally respect and pay very close attention to.
Quite often if the line moved a point or more towards the side you like, it is too late. The value is already gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not.
Even though issues such as power rankings, trends and injuries are an important part of the handicapping process, there is no more significant factor than anticipating where the money will go on any particular game.
When handicapping baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not readily made available to the general public and that is why at times lines look so enticing. It is therefore important to compare our projected ML to the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any plays.

When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our lines.
· Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
· Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
· Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
· Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: System Play Based on a Scientific Approach

One of the reasons baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies and provides a clearer view of starting pitcher and bullpen slumps and flaws. Our analysis also pinpoints when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate. The system we introduce here represents a scientific approach to handicapping. Our selection techniques were developed so the handicapper can take advantage of formulas created which analyzes the quality of starting pitchers along with its bullpen. It became evident which teams get the best of a certain starting pitchers and bullpens they face. Our formulas also place a great deal of weight on the bullpen, by creating a bullpen rating. Of course to produce an accurate rating is a very difficult since relief pitchers are shuttled in and out of the bullpen very frequently. Relief pitchers as we know are also traded, released or shipped to minors. We also analyze team batting tendencies when facing dominant left or right, handed hurlers and vice versa, when pitchers may struggle against teams with predominantly left or right handed batters. Our baseball system handles a large number of team and pitching offensive/defensive events, interacting factors and creates a team, scoring index, along with a Money Line.
When handicapping baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not readily made available to the general public and that is why at times lines look so enticing. It is therefore important to compare our projected ML to the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any plays.

· When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent Differential or Overlay.
· Make sure a pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
· Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
· Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
· Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
· Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.
A money line of (-1.25) indicates the Home team is a favorite, while a (1.25) indicates the Road team is a favorite. As an example, suppose WAS at home is facing the NYM's and the Predicted ML is 2.25. This indicates the NYM's are an overwhelming favorite at 2.25. Now suppose the Actual or Offshore casino's ML for the NYM's is 1.50. This tells us that the NYM's are a Road favorite having good value since we only have to lay 1.50. To see if there is a play we need to subtract the actual ML of 1.50 from the predicted ML 2.25 which gives us a differential of 75 cents which greater then the 25 cent overlay required. Therefore, the NYM's becomes our play. Of course the opposite scenario applies.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Team Projected Runs

Baseball is terrific for the number of statistics that are tracked during each game and they can paint a detailed picture of what to expect from teams offensively and defensively nearly every game. One of the most important systems we like to employ is called Sabermetrics, a method of objectively analyzing MLB team performance through statistics. Our system relies on collecting statistical records to develop conclusions and make predictions about teams and performance by measuring runs scored. Our studies logically point to those teams, which are consistently solid and have the offensive edge in run production.
By incorporating a form of Sabermetrics, we have developed a system called TPR, which calculates a team’s run production by checking offensively, how hot or cold a team is over the past 7 games Vs. the entire season. One of the most important factors we also utilize in our mathematical model is Regression to the Mean. This is when teams have a powerful tendency to return to the form in which they previously held. Whatever you call it, regression to the mean is a fact of life and teams will always go back to their norm in all sports. By combining our mathematical equations and concepts into a powerful system, beating the bookmaker becomes an easier task.
When using our Team Projected Runs System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is 1 or over, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is -1 or under, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team H/A Power Ratings

You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you. Generally, Power Ratings is one of many tools that can provide such insight. In essence you create your own line by manipulating data so you can find a game in which your methods indicate that there is an edge to one side or another.
Finding a valid method that meets your style takes trial and error. As with most statistical methods you will need a large enough sampling of games to create a valid projection. Some pitching-only based systems may work well as early as May when a pitcher has completed 15 or more innings.
The Home/Away Pitcher Power Ratings provided here is a season to date snap shot of a pitcher performance and how the team supports him. Used with current pitcher form and team streaks it can lay the foundation for developing an eye for an edge.
If the value in the H/A-PP DIF (Pitcher Power) column is positive, then the home team starting pitcher is superior. The higher this value is the better the quality of the starting pitcher. To the contrary, if this value is negative, then the home team starting pitcher is inferior. If the Value in the H/A-TP DIF (Team Power) is positive and is a higher value, then the team supporting the starting pitcher is superior when this pitcher starts.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Bullpen Projected Runs

Pitching is definitely the most important weapon in a team’s arsenal. There is a reason why the starting pitchers are always named well ahead of game time. Professional handicappers will be the first to tell you that a team can only go as far as their arms will take them. The heart of most pitching staffs and winning bets are not the starters but the relief pitchers. Paying attention to MLB bullpens will increase your chances of winning at baseball betting. If you look back at most successful baseball teams you will discover that they almost all dominated due to a good starting pitching staff and a stellar bullpen.
If you’re betting on a team’s bullpen solely based on how they’ve done all season, be careful. A bullpen is a sensitive unit that can change its look, literally on a daily basis. To be a confident gambler who’s looking to gain an edge on a wager you should also focus on what the bullpen has done in the last 10 games and you can even make a case for "micro-capping" their last 5 games.
The reason we suggest you examine a bullpens performance over the last 10 and 5 games and not the entire season, is that some bullpens might have given up many runs in a single game that may have superficially skewed and inflated their numbers. We at Sportrends have always felt the bullpens have been undervalued when setting betting lines in baseball, and our studies on this subject has confirmed that oddsmakers are still somewhat behind the 8 ball, but they are starting to catch on quickly. We all know in baseball, betting lines have always been based mostly on starting pitchers, while the bullpens have been undervalued. For now though, we are confident that our bullpen projected Run system will have another profitable season. This system does not kick in until May 15 so that the bullpens can accumulate at least a full month of actual data, but it is always important to project which teams will have the best bullpens in each league to be a successful handicapper.
When using our BPR System in any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the road team is warranted when the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be expected to give up more runs.

[ShivaBowl]

Major League Baseball: Pitching and Team Overall Power Ratings

The average guy will look at a game and break it down comparing pitchers, comparing offense, maybe even going through a game position by position to see which team is better and more likely to win a game. But guess what? All of this work puts this bettor on the favorite 9 out of 10 times. You see the oddsmakers have already handicapped this game using the same general principles as the avid baseball fan. You will never beat baseball betting all favorites.
When it comes to handicapping baseball, no single factor gets more attention, or has more effect on the game, than the starting pitcher. A good pitcher can make his team look much better than they are, and pitching woes can make the most talented team look like your local high school team. Understanding pitchers, and assigning a reasonable value to them, is the key to making money on baseball. Unfortunately, the starting pitcher can also be a trap that can cost us a fortune. The challenge is in knowing when the starting pitcher is a good bet, and when he has been given too much weight.
Another potential problem area is what happens when the starting pitcher leaves the game. It is very rare to see a starter pitch a complete game, and any appearance more than six or seven innings seems increasingly to be an oddity. If you are evaluating the value in the game based on a comparison of the two starting pitchers then you may be making a costly mistake. Beyond the starting pitchers, you need to look at the bullpens of both teams and how they perform with every starting pitcher.
P-Power/T-Power - When Calculating the Pitcher Power the higher the Power Rating the better chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, higher then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.
The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the higher the power rating the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, higher then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.
Due Factor's - When calculating the pitchers due factor the lower the Due Factor the better his chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, lower then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.
The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the lower the Due Factor the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, lower then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.
If both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.
Predicted Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up and should predominantly be used with road dogs if success is going to occur. Try to go against an opponents ace, particularly at home. Pitchers need at least 5 starts. Subtract both pitchers predicted runs and use a 2 run overlay.
One final thought, you should always avoid heavy favorites. One loss and BANG your in a hole. A loser on a -250 game means you’re down 2.5 units and that can take even the most astute baseball handicapper a good week or more to break even on. We have found that –130 should be your limit in selecting a team favorite. If you happen to win 2 out of 3 games you will still come out with a small monetary gain. We'd like to suggest that you look at games from the underdog point of view. Once you get used to it, it actually becomes fun and you'll never go back to eyeballing the overwhelming favorites ever again.

[ShivaBowl]

In ending, I just want all of you to know, that the only reason I'm doing all this work is for AI.
I have spent hours of my life breaking down the AI system and all of us have made tons of cash with it.
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

Moneyline play 4/25

Reds @-125 to -150

Winner.

Love starting off the system with an easy winner. Congrats

HoulihansTX
Thanks for doing the M/L System
I could not do this, without your help TX:
Thank You

[ShivaBowl]

HoulihansTX, I will start posting S/A tomorrow,ok
Its to late today and I'm already shot.
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

No TPR or S/A plays today due to IP <-20

[HoulihansTX]

I am going to post the unofficial plays in the old thread until May 15, or 20IP's.

[Tommygunn]

Found you guys. I'll start posting p/t after 20 too

[HoulihansTX]

April 24 - Current
Overall
(10-5) +1.45Units

April 26
Bullpen Proj Sys
Balty 3.43 (+105)
Sea 2.11 (+190)
_____________________________________
Overall
(5-7) -4.80Units

TPR
Balty 1.0 (+105)


No records are official until May 15, or 20IP

[Thunders77]

Hey Shiva,
Totally New to Baseball handicapping and am wondering if you can enlighten me on what you are referring to with the AI System?
Sorry for my ignorance here, but have checked thru ST and your thread and still don't see any mention anywhere else?
Thanks Man and Looking Forward to Lucarative Season for All of Us!!!!

[dvb02]

Shiva, do you play all of these systems?

[joeytunes]

did we start a new?

[HoulihansTX]

Bullpen System on fire early

I play the Bullpen system, along with the ML system. I only play TPR when it lines up with Bullpen Sys.

[ShivaBowl]

Shiva, do you play all of these systems?

The Projected Money Line System and the Scientific Approach are based on a directional money lines. Its very important to pay attention to line constraints and make plays 15 - 20 minutes prior to start of any game, check to see if a majority of casinos are in agreement with M/L and S/A Line Plays.

While the BPR, TPR, H/A, PR Runs and the PT Power Plays are performance based,
I cross check all the systems to build a consensus.

When I use BPR, I consider anything < 4.00 as a weak play.
But I don’t make a move, on any performance based systems, until BPR is posted.

M/L has been the money maker in the past.
All systems do get hot so keep an eye on them.
BOL

Thunders77 I will sent you a PM.
thanks

[HoulihansTX]

April 24 - Current
Overall
(10-5) +1.45Units

April 26
Bullpen Proj Sys
Balty 3.43 (+105) W
Sea 2.11 (+190) W
_____________________________________
Overall
(5-7) -4.80Units

TPR
Balty 1.0 (+105) W


No records are official until May 15, or 20IP

April 24 - Current
Overall
(12-5) +4.4Units

April 27
Bullpen Proj Sys
Sea 2.52 (+180)

No Play
Colo 6.34 np>-150
Cleve 5.77 npBothL2
Philly 4.90 np>-150
Dodgers 4.01 np>-150&L2
Minny 3.58 npL5
CWS 3.24 npL3
Yanks 1.79 npBothL2
_____________________________________
Overall
(6-7) -3.75Units

TPR
Bos 2.2 (-110)
Balty 2.1 (-125)
SF 1.2 (-105)

No Play
Atl 2.6 np>-150
Yanks 2.5 npBothL2
TX 1.3 npBothW2
Dodgers 1.2 np>-150


No records are official until May 15, or 20IP

[ShivaBowl]

TX; refresh my memory, TPR a play if pitcher has > 20IP ?
Or only if both pitchers have > 20IP
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

S/A System Play
STL (J Westbrook) No Play if > -140

[HoulihansTX]

I remember TPR being independent of Starting pitchers. That system is not official until May 15th anyway, so IP should ot be an issue @ that time.

[ShivaBowl]

I remember TPR being independent of Starting pitchers. That system is not official until May 15th anyway, so IP should ot be an issue @ that time.

TPR is in effect now, the only system that is on hold until May 15 is BPR.
The reason being, is to give the bullpen pitchers, more time to rack up innings.
Thanks

[HoulihansTX]

Well 20IP filter seems excessive with a system that is grading offense exclusively.

[ShivaBowl]

Well 20IP filter seems excessive with a system that is grading offense exclusively.

Okay so TPR is on now, right?

Also; do you need help with TPR?
You are now doing three systems, which is like having a part time job.
I think what`s most important to us, is your time spent with the M/L System and BPR.
Thanks

[HoulihansTX]

TPR/BPR run together for me. I have it. Maybe you can do another system as I take on these duties.

[GGPLAYER]

Interesting stuff

[Tommygunn]

PT Today - Stl ???

Not sure if it`s a play though since Mil`s Galliardo has only 17.2 IP?

[Tommygunn]

Also, should I run another system off the power rankings page for just the PR-Runs making the plays on the teams who are projected to give up less runs then their oppenents with a 2 run overlay? Also using regular filters np -150, L2, opponent w2?

[ShivaBowl]

Also, should I run another system off the power rankings page for just the PR-Runs making the plays on the teams who are projected to give up less runs then their oppenents with a 2 run overlay? Also using regular filters np -150, L2, opponent w2?

Thank's Tom, but no one system is enough.
I thought we went over this to day with the back and forth PMs?
Thanks

[ShivaBowl]

PT Today - Stl ???

Not sure if it`s a play though since Mil`s Galliardo has only 17.2 IP?

I Pm you today about St. Louis why are you asking if it is a play or not are you getting my PMs

[ShivaBowl]

TPR/BPR run together for me. I have it. Maybe you can do another system as I take on these duties.

I know what you're implying and you can forget it but thanks for your concern
there's no way I can do three systems plus the ugly dog thread plus answer 10 questions a day and monitor what's going on in here just in possible

[Tommygunn]

Ok Shiva sorry, I just didn`t quite understand. I`ll count STL as a play. I can handle moneyline as well if you guys want me to. It`s not hard and I'll keep an honest record. Do you want me to start tomorrow?