Value Plays Mlb 2012

pacocn · 08-02-12, 11:57 PM

8/3 Cubs +148, Orioles +157, Rockies +147,
and Astros +1.5 (+115) bol everyone

italianbandit · 08-03-12, 12:04 AM

I like the Rockies tomorrow as well. Just wondering if the line will jump even higher. People will be chasing SF here.

pacocn · 08-03-12, 08:29 PM

8/3 Adding Toronto +160 bol everyone.

fitguy67 · 08-04-12, 12:46 AM

damn paco, we are waaay overdue for that season-making run...

the picks are on (consistently beating the closer)...we just need variance to kick in on the positive side (where it's been running up a big deficit since mid-May)

___________________

"just keep doin' what you're doin'...the sick run will come and all this force-spinning will have been worth it"

...an alternate-universe yoda advising a young Luke Skywalker apprentice-capper after a bad stretch at the pod-races

cboogie · 08-04-12, 06:08 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

consistently beating the closer

Your telling me. LAA last night, i had the CWS with that redsox 3 run walk off earlier this month. A few others i cant think of. Mostly multi unit plays.

pacocn · 08-04-12, 06:38 AM

Fit, thanks for the nice encouraging words, we will catch our run

pacocn · 08-04-12, 06:39 AM

0-5 yesterday down 5 units

pacocn · 08-04-12, 06:40 AM

Overall record 150-181 Down 7.38 units.

musky123 · 08-04-12, 06:41 AM

Don't feel down I am 0-4 yesterday. Today is a new day.....

musky123 · 08-04-12, 06:42 AM

Everyone here uses units. What is a unit?

pacocn · 08-04-12, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by musky123

Everyone here uses units. What is a unit?

Musky, in my opinion a unit is personal. It is whatever you want it to be and Ideally it
should be about 2-3 % of your bankroll. For example if you have 1,000 in your bankroll
your unit size would be $30. 1unit=30. Since everyone's bankroll is different, unit sizes
vary between players. Best of luck and I hope this helps you.

pacocn · 08-04-12, 06:53 AM

8/4 Orioles +129, K.C. +152, and Tribe +180
bol everyone

fitguy67 · 08-04-12, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by musky123

Everyone here uses units. What is a unit?

whatever you feel comfortable with

1% (ie divide bank into 100 chunks)...suitable if you like to play lots of picks daily

2-3% is the normal size of a unit (ie. divide bank into either 50 or 33.33 chunks) for normal folks with regards to risk-tolerance...but if you're consistently playing more than say 8 picks...think about downsizing your unit

a good rule of thumb is that you should be risking no more than 25% per day...(so if you play play no more than 8 picks, 3% is good...but if you play a dozen, then 2% is about right etc.)

you have to look at your risk tolerance...can you sleep with 25% of your ac in play...if 15% is more your style and you like to play about 8 picks than down-just your units from 3% to 2%)

______________

you really have to decide for yourself, incorporating both risk-tolerance (what max% of bank you can have in play)...and the play-frequency you like

BUT (most importantly)...once you decide on a unit size as %bank...stick to it

___________

if you're new to this game and are "tailing" others...here's a free life-/account-saver...take the picks but IGNORE the different unit sizes capper may recommend...and treat every play the same as a single unit play as defined above...

after you've survived a few years in this game, you can experiment with limited bet-size variations (such as a 5* to 10* system, where 1*=0.2 of your normal unit so 5*=1unit=your normal play, so 6*=1.2u, 7*=1.4u, 8*=1.6u, 9*=1.8u, and 10*=2u=max possible betsize) but BE CAREFUL...always err on the side of smaller, rather than larger (%bank) plays...cuz if you ever make a habit of plays 5% or more...you WILL eventually crash and lose everything you ever made...

pacocn · 08-10-12, 08:09 AM

8/10 Rockies +210, Tigers +125, D backs +108
bol everyone

italianbandit · 08-10-12, 12:43 PM

Good luck Pac, I am on Det and Ariz, but don't like Col. Chatwood has a very high walk rate and the Giants current form is pretty good.

fitguy67 · 08-10-12, 08:05 PM

bol

pacocn · 08-11-12, 12:13 AM

Cash Tigers +125

pacocn · 08-11-12, 12:15 AM

Cash Rockies +210

pacocn · 08-11-12, 12:18 AM

2-1 on the day Up 2.35 units
Overall record 152-185 down 8.03 units

Buckle up boys we are going to roll em and
smoke em from here out

pacocn · 08-11-12, 12:19 AM

Italian and Fit, i appreciate your kind words,
i expect to finish the season with a flurry.

pacocn · 08-11-12, 01:54 AM

Taking Saturday off heading to the Del Mar race track

pacocn · 08-12-12, 01:25 AM

Back from the ponies working on Sunday's card

pacocn · 08-12-12, 11:21 AM

8/12 Two teamer .50 x pays .70x Pirates and Cincy

bol everyone.

pacocn · 08-12-12, 02:45 PM

This concludes today's card

pacocn · 08-12-12, 04:14 PM

Cash the Two teamer Up .70 units on the day

Overall record 154-185 Down 7.33 units.

fitguy67 · 08-12-12, 08:05 PM

two up-days in a row...hopefully that overdue "sea change" is underway...

pacocn · 08-14-12, 08:28 AM

8/14 Padres +155, and KC +104
bol everyone.

italianbandit · 08-14-12, 10:36 AM

On them both PAC. GGGGGGGGGGooood luck.

pacocn · 08-14-12, 08:05 PM

Italian, lets get em

BiffTFinancial · 08-14-12, 08:25 PM

BOL Pacocn.

fitguy67 · 08-14-12, 11:39 PM

officially 3 up-days in a row

(if you're gonna split a card...nothin' better than dogs)

pacocn · 08-15-12, 08:34 AM

Cash K.C. + 104

pacocn · 08-15-12, 08:36 AM

1-1 on the day Up .04 units
we will take it.
Overall record 156-186 Down 5.49 units

pacocn · 08-15-12, 08:38 AM

8/15 plays Two teamer Athletics ml and Dbags/Cards under 8 pays 1.27 on a .50x.
also Chisox/Toronto Under 8.5 (-105).

pacocn · 08-18-12, 09:57 AM

Overall record 156-188 Down 6.94 units,
lets get back in the black.