on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

CrazyCarl · 08-26-12, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Let's see...the plays were ALL posted yesterday. The one's that lost, well..

.. we play them again. The one's that won....go ahead, see if you can guess.... that's right, we don't play them again. Maybe tomorrow, you could be one of those "other posters" that you mention, instead of waiting around for someone else to post that which should be obvious at this point in the season. stevex CLEARLY stated that he would post the plays when he had time, and would most likely be after the games started. If that isn't good enough, then go back two sentences and re-read.

signed
One Of The "other posters"

He's 0/2 so far.

Yeah, I could post the plays, but since I'm not sure if I'll be around and post them on time, I won't take on that responsibility.

Seems reasonable enough to me.

And you seem to be misunderstanding what I am saying. I understand the system and can do the work myself, not just sitting around "waiting for someone else to do it", but right now it's being run poorly, which is why I asked why someone who has failed to have time to post the plays for both days is the one who 'took over'. I didn't mean for that to be offensive, and I think I asked it fairly mildly, and got him calling me a tool and you acting like I don't know how to continue a losing bet in response.

Whatever.

stevex · 08-26-12, 04:32 AM

Wallco

GGPLAYER · 08-26-12, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by lapi7

Something's VERY "screwy" with the Mets !!!

Even w Dickey on the mound...THE METS WILL LOSE !!!

I'm betting every last dollar I have on Houston today !!!

stevex · 08-26-12, 06:24 PM

Absolutely awful year. How much longer do we play this system?

stevex · 08-26-12, 06:27 PM

Looking at the calender. I'm guessing this is the last week for this system since on3 said it doesn't go into September. I'm also guessing there's no chance to even break even this year as well?

on3 · 08-26-12, 11:50 PM

we will have 1, maybe 2 plays tomorrow to close out the year. will be back with a full update tomorrow morning. just got back in, sucks about Arizona.

on3 · 08-27-12, 11:35 AM

UPDATED for 08/27/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 151-16-0; Profit: -34.75 units
Filtered System: 48-4-0; Profit: -18.5 units
5/2 chase: 19-4-0; profit: -25.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 95-72; 31-23
Game 2 (B) win = 43-29; 11-12; 11-12
Game 3 (C) win = 13-16; 8-4; 8-4

LABBY LINES FOR 08/27/2012
95-95-70-145
x-42-101-100
123-120-235-190

New Line Filtered
150-100-86-146
134-130-303-221

REGULAR FOR 08/27/2012
(A) NYY -230/-115 to win 165 -- play RL

Filtered
NYY to win 150 -- play RL

5/2
none

CrazyCarl · 08-27-12, 03:35 PM

Thanks on3 and thelimit and JMD and everyone else who helped this season, even though it didn't go so well.

See you guys around.

J.M. Disciple · 08-27-12, 04:58 PM

Wish I could of been around to update the plays over the weekend, but i wasn't even betting anything myself. System was not back tested far enough to deem it a profitable system. lesson learned by us all; do not base systems on 1-3 years of back testing.

Hopefully everyone had around 200 units in their bankroll and did not take too large of a hit. Always a marathon in sports betting, so do not expect to get rich quick. Treat it like the stock market for future seasons.

Future tips for systems to follow
-JM NBA 7/5
--Labby the A wagers
-JM MLB (labby probably best bet since 1 loss could wipe out a season)

-Cisco MLB

There are three good cappers I know that have been consistent over the years and NO one of them is not the one I got such a hard time about this season. I am not sure if im allowed to post paid cappers on here, but ill remove later if need be; Mike McClain (MMC), Sharp, & IC. Follow all of these with seperate labby lines and a 200 unit bankroll to start the next season and you all should do well.

I guess anything Wallco post as well since he thoroughly back test anything before he post it.

Good luck for this last week of betting and see you all in JM NBA forum.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1847128-john-morrison-2012-13-nba-thread.html#quick_reply

--Austin

stevex · 08-27-12, 05:46 PM

on3, it looks like we might have a couple more plays tomorrow to with new series starting and they'll last till Thursday which is still August. Are those a go?

Wallco99 · 08-28-12, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by stevex

on3, it looks like we might have a couple more plays tomorrow to with new series starting and they'll last till Thursday which is still August. Are those a go?

steve, are you going to continue into Sept., or are you calling it quits this week?

on3 · 08-28-12, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by stevex

on3, it looks like we might have a couple more plays tomorrow to with new series starting and they'll last till Thursday which is still August. Are those a go?

those are a go.

on3 · 08-28-12, 11:50 AM

UPDATED for 08/28/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 151-16-0; Profit: -44.25 units
Filtered System: 48-4-0; Profit: -27 units
5/2 chase: 19-4-0; profit: -25.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 95-73; 31-24
Game 2 (B) win = 43-29; 11-12; 11-12
Game 3 (C) win = 13-16; 8-4; 8-4

LABBY LINES FOR 08/28/2012
95-95-160-145
x-42-101-195
123-120-235-190

New Line Filtered
150-100-172-146
134-216-303-221

REGULAR FOR 08/28/2012
(B) NYY -230/-125 to win 237 -- play RL
(A) LAA -195/+105 bet 160 -- play RL

Filtered
NYY to win 221 -- play RL

5/2
NYY to win 100 -- play ML

J.M. Disciple · 08-28-12, 04:55 PM

might want to change the date on your plays....

stevex · 08-28-12, 05:11 PM

Wallco..... and on3 might have to chime in here because my lazy ass wont go back to previous years

but from what I understand is that this system was only backtested in previous years until August 31st and not including September (on3 correct?) So if that's the case then no after these 2 series I guess I'm going to stop and just pick up with SBP's NCAAF and NFL systems and JM NFL.

IF the backtest for this system was done until the end of the season, THEN I will continue following because variance would tell me things would turn around in September and we'd finish strong since we've had a rough year. Others might want to chime in here as well. Continue till the end of the year or no?

knugen · 08-29-12, 12:17 AM

Stevex how did SBP do last year? Do u have his record?

on3 · 08-29-12, 12:15 PM

UPDATED for 08/29/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 151-16-0; Profit: -67.25 units
Filtered System: 48-4-0; Profit: -41 units
5/2 chase: 20-4-0; profit: -20.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 95-74; 31-24
Game 2 (B) win = 43-30; 11-13; 12-12
Game 3 (C) win = 13-16; 8-4; 8-4

LABBY LINES FOR 08/29/2012
95-95-160-145
x-192-261-195
123-120-235-348

New Line Filtered
150-100-172-276
270-216-303-221

REGULAR FOR 08/29/2012
(C) NYY -250/-130 to win 348 -- play RL
(B) LAA -220/-110 bet 261 -- play RL

Filtered
NYY to win 303 -- play RL

5/2
none

knugen · 08-29-12, 01:58 PM

yaaaaaaaaaaaannnkkkkkkkkssssssssssssss

J.M. Disciple · 08-29-12, 03:20 PM

Steve it does not matter if you continue into sept or not. This system has had an incomplete back test done based on two years, so to determine if you should go into Sept or not should be your own decision and not On3 or Wallco's. Use your own capping skills to decide if you like the series or not. And since you use the labby, then you might as well play it until seasons end. Get more action and clear more lines.

J.M. Disciple · 08-29-12, 04:50 PM

OMG, so glad I cashed out before this system truly fail apart. I am almost speechless on the matter. I am sure others have a lot of words for the misfortune almost the entire season. There is absolutely no saving this system.

Until there is a 5-10 year back test I do not think anyone should be playing this system; I am only talking about the filtered and regular. TheLimit did a great job on his back test, so 5/2 would be the only proven method for beating "this system."

GGPLAYER · 08-30-12, 09:54 AM

wow between this thread and JM Plays the C bets have crushed people in the last week.

Wallco99 · 08-30-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

wow between this thread and JM Plays the C bets have crushed people in the last week.

The final tally on this system is probably approaching -100 units. So glad I switched to run lines when I did.

J.M. Disciple · 08-31-12, 05:14 PM

Is there a final tally post or last words from on3 for this thread?

tuneman · 09-01-12, 10:04 AM

Does this system stop in September I am assuming?

stevex · 09-01-12, 10:19 AM

I thought on3 did do a backtest for this system?

Wallco99 · 09-01-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by stevex

I thought on3 did do a backtest for this system?

There is no way to do an accurate backtest when using the criteria of opening lines to generate plays, especially when the opening lines come from an online sportsbook. Usually only closing lines of such sites can be found in archives, and that is not what is used in this system.

stevex · 09-01-12, 12:08 PM

Good call Wallco. Have to re-think what systems I'm going to use for MLB next season. Any ideas?

stevex · 09-01-12, 12:08 PM

on3 and that's not a hit on you man. I appreciate all the work you do in your thread.

Wallco99 · 09-01-12, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by stevex

Good call Wallco. Have to re-think what systems I'm going to use for MLB next season. Any ideas?

Working on three of them. Two I love, one not sure about. Had I been playing them only, I would be well ahead of where I am now. Will let you know when I have finished previous seasons.

imotiv8 · 09-02-12, 03:49 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1878060-jm-like-college-football-system-2012-a.html

JM LIKE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM

on3 · 09-03-12, 02:41 PM

CLOSING POST

Below is the final tally for the season, with records and units based a three-line labby progression. This season we added the 5/2 plays that was backtested by thelimit (thank you) and was shown have a solid record and a good opportunity to make some money. We were sitting at a cumulative +67 units on 6/27 (post #2110), the filtered games were undefeated as was 5/2. In the two months that followed the wheels fell off and we closed the year at -157.75 units. Like last year, post all-star game provided little to no money making streaks and this year it wiped us out. In future years, maybe the RL can be incorporated to protect against high juice games, or maybe just the filtered and 5/2 plays will be done. Thank you to everyone who contributed. Hopefully football season treats us better

UPDATED for 08/31/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 152-17-0; Profit: -76.75 units
Filtered System: 48-5-0; Profit: -60.5 units
5/2 chase: 20-4-0; profit: -20.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 95-74; 31-24
Game 2 (B) win = 44-30; 11-13; 12-12
Game 3 (C) win = 13-17; 8-5; 8-4

hagball52 · 09-03-12, 07:39 PM

On3, Thanks for all your effort this year. Hopefully next year will be better. The Morrison MLB thread is starting to unravel also. It's been a wild and wacky year for baseball. Nothing like I've ever seen before. Lots of dogs winning outright and lots of heavy favorite teams getting swept. On to next year and GL.

thelimit0310 · 09-04-12, 06:25 PM

Thanks for the hard work On3. The 5/2 system does not end at the start of Sept but rather on September 20th, so there is time for the system to pull around. I have bailed on this MLB season as it seems almost every system this year did not perform, but I will calculate the total unit count for the 5/2 at the end of this month. There's a possibility of a turn around in that time, however if the 5/2 method finishes off around the same count as it is now or worse then it will be the worst season for the 5/2 method in 9 years of data. I look forward to next MLB season where I believe the 5/2 will be much, much stronger and the plays more forthcoming.

Also, Wallco, I am very excited to see your results for the system(s) you've been working on. Thank you for your hard work!

I look forward to seeing some familiar faces in the JM NBA thread. My hope is to continue the 7/5 method there, so check the thread out if you are interested!

on3 · 09-05-12, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Thanks for the hard work On3. The 5/2 system does not end at the start of Sept but rather on September 20th, so there is time for the system to pull around. I have bailed on this MLB season as it seems almost every system this year did not perform, but I will calculate the total unit count for the 5/2 at the end of this month. There's a possibility of a turn around in that time, however if the 5/2 method finishes off around the same count as it is now or worse then it will be the worst season for the 5/2 method in 9 years of data. I look forward to next MLB season where I believe the 5/2 will be much, much stronger and the plays more forthcoming.

Also, Wallco, I am very excited to see your results for the system(s) you've been working on. Thank you for your hard work!

I look forward to seeing some familiar faces in the JM NBA thread. My hope is to continue the 7/5 method there, so check the thread out if you are interested!

any plays coming up for 5/2?

Ghenghis Kahn · 09-05-12, 01:25 PM

yikes -157.75?

time to put this system to rest...

rip