on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[Wallco99]

Did Stl open under -145 yesterdat on3?

Yes it did.

[stevex]

Well regardless, it won. Remember Wallco "let on3 run his thread."

Thanks pal.

[Wallco99]

Well regardless, it won. Remember Wallco "let on3 run his thread."

Thanks pal.

Whatever you say! You asked the question and I answered it. But I know, it's his thread.

[thelimit0310]

Great week lets keep it moving!

[knugen]

Hhmm, it should be around 8 plays today, most of the times when we have had this many plays we have suffered atleast 1 loss..

[Wallco99]

Hhmm, it should be around 8 plays today, most of the times when we have had this many plays we have suffered atleast 1 loss..

Don't look at it that way, look at it as a chance to win 7 series. I've been playing them all at -1 1/2 lately and doing well, hoping for a big cash on these 7 series. Arizona actually opened under -145 so that is why I say 7. They were under -145 for over 24 hours so this one shouldn't qualify, but who knows?

[knugen]

Mm, i know, i looked at scoresandodds and there i think aARZ opened at -150 but i can be wrong, where do u look at?

I play all serie at -1 and have been doing that for a while!

[Wallco99]

Mm, i know, i lokked at scoresandodds and there i think aARZ opened at -150 but i can be wrong, where do i look at?

I play all serie at -1 and have been doing that for a while!

Top of this page under live odds, click on MLB, then go down to ARI match under 5Dimes, it will show you all the line changes since the open. It opened at -141 and stayed there for a while. I look there because this system is supposedly based on opening lines from 5Dimes.

[stevex]

Lets just wait and see what on3 says? Thanks though wallco

[Mrscofield25]

Top of this page under live odds, click on MLB, then go down to ARI match under 5Dimes, it will show you all the line changes since the open. It opened at -141 and stayed there for a while. I look there because this system is supposedly based on opening lines from 5Dimes.

Wallco, your personal opinion... Scoresandodds or SBR's lines for MLB, what do you prefer? Are you keeping record of the opening lines?

[on3]

UPDATED for 08/21/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 138-13-0; Profit: -4.25 units
Filtered System: 44-3-0; Profit: -4.5 units
5/2 chase: 18-3-0; profit: -4 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 87-67; 27-19
Game 2 (B) win = 39-25; 11-11; 11-10
Game 3 (C) win = 13-13; 6-3; 7-3

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 08/21/2012
70-70-70-70-70-70-70
50-50-x-x
33-50-x-x

New Line Filtered
100-104-96-86
134-130-127-186

REGULAR FOR 08/19/2012
(A) PHI -150 to win 70
(A) NYM -230/-110 to win 70 -- play RL
(A) MIL -151 to win 70
(A) LAD -152 to win 70
(A) TB -170 to win 70
(A) TEX -165 to win 70
(A) OAK -170 to win 70

Filtered
TEX to win 100
MIL to win 104 (if o/u drops below 9 at game time this is a no play)

5/2
none

[on3]

Wallco, your personal opinion... Scoresandodds or SBR's lines for MLB, what do you prefer? Are you keeping record of the opening lines?

I know the question isnt directed at me, but I take a look at both. In the case of STL and a few others this year, if a line opens at -143 or -141 and then shoots to -160 within a couple hours, I consider that as 'market forces' correcting the line. Same as games that open at -150 and drop to -130 therefore making them a no play.

[Wallco99]

Wallco, your personal opinion... Scoresandodds or SBR's lines for MLB, what do you prefer? Are you keeping record of the opening lines?

It doesn't really matter, as long as you use the same one all the time. I use scoresandodds for ALL my backtests, the lines on there seem to be the most consistent with my book. However, on3 has stated that opening lines of 5dimes was the official site for qualifying plays, so that is what I look at to determine these plays. If you just go to any site that happens to have lines over -145 and play those games, you will eventually get hurt, and what is really the whole point of the system then. To me, the most important part of any backtest or any system is religiously using ONE site for all testing and play determination, otherwise, all data is skewed.

[Wallco99]

Lets just wait and see what on3 says? Thanks though wallco

I'm really not your enemy here, though you try to make me out to be. Just trying to point that out before someone rushes out and bets on a team that isn't a play. The rules are pretty simple, and it's not necessary for someone to have to post what is or isn't plays for me, as I said, the rules are pretty clear. Play whatever you want, but I will only play the ones that actually qualify by system rules and in this case ARI didn't. And besides, my conversation was with knugen anyway, but thanks for your concern.

[Wallco99]

I know the question isnt directed at me, but I take a look at both. In the case of STL and a few others this year, if a line opens at -143 or -141 and then shoots to -160 within a couple hours, I consider that as 'market forces' correcting the line. Same as games that open at -150 and drop to -130 therefore making them a no play.

And I consider that using personal opinion to determine system plays, usually a no-no. But as stevex said, it is your thread, so run it as you wish. And don't get me wrong, I think you are doing a great job. But I'm just one to play by the actual rules created and try not to veer from them unless absolutely necessary. And who cares what I have to say anyway?

[Mrscofield25]

I know the question isnt directed at me, but I take a look at both. In the case of STL and a few others this year, if a line opens at -143 or -141 and then shoots to -160 within a couple hours, I consider that as 'market forces' correcting the line. Same as games that open at -150 and drop to -130 therefore making them a no play.

It doesn't really matter, as long as you use the same one all the time. I use scoresandodds for ALL my backtests, the lines on there seem to be the most consistent with my book. However, on3 has stated that opening lines of 5dimes was the official site for qualifying plays, so that is what I look at to determine these plays. If you just go to any site that happens to have lines over -145 and play those games, you will eventually get hurt, and what is really the whole point of the system then. To me, the most important part of any backtest or any system is religiously using ONE site for all testing and play determination, otherwise, all data is skewed.

<br>
<br>

I'll just use my personal book to determine the plays then. Thanks for your answers guys.

[CrazyCarl]

Jeez, always fighting. :P

[on3]

day started out promising, but OAK and LAD look like they wont help us out. hopefully they wrap up the B games tomorrow.

[Win89]

Arizona should be a 5/2 play today finally.

[CrazyCarl]

Arizona should be a 5/2 play today finally.

Looks like they closed at -147 o/u 9 to me, thanks for pointing that out.

[on3]

UPDATED for 08/22/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 142-13-0; Profit: -4.25 units
Filtered System: 46-3-0; Profit: +5.75 units
5/2 chase: 18-3-0; profit: -4 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 91-70; 29-19
Game 2 (B) win = 39-25; 11-11; 11-10
Game 3 (C) win = 13-13; 6-3; 7-3

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 08/22/2012
94-96-95-x
120-120-117-x
33-50-x-x

New Line Filtered
x-x-96-86
134-130-127-186

REGULAR FOR 08/22/2012
(A) STL -260/-120 to win 94 -- play RL
(A) DET -230/-115 to win 96 -- play RL
(B) NYM -155 to win 117
(B) LAD -118 to win 120
(B) OAK -155 to win 120

Filtered
DET to win 96 (only a play if o/u is 9 or higher at game time)

5/2
ARZ to win 100

[thelimit0310]

5/2 has been very slow this season, definitely a stray from the norm. This has been a very odd season indeed.

[Wallco99]

5/2 has been very slow this season, definitely a stray from the norm. This has been a very odd season indeed.

That is strange, because the (A) bets in this system have been weak this year, so you would think the 5/2 would be performing better. Must mean the filtered plays are hitting on (A) more than usual, and the unfiltered are the ones that are taking longer to win, since those aren't usually 5/2 plays anyway.

[CrazyCarl]

Hey TheLimit, have you been following only the 5/2 plays, or have you been playing the other systems on top of it as well?

[on3]

if you played DET as filtered, congrats. you picked up some units, but it wont count towards the record since the o/u at game time was 8.5 at most books.

[on3]

UPDATED for 08/23/2012
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 144-13-0; Profit: -4.75 units
Filtered System: 46-3-0; Profit: +5.75 units
5/2 chase: 18-3-0; profit: -12 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 93-70; 29-19
Game 2 (B) win = 40-27; 11-11; 11-11
Game 3 (C) win = 13-13; 6-3; 7-3

RESHUFFLED LABBY LINES FOR 08/23/2012
x-x-95-x
120-117-41-41
43-40-120-120

New Line Filtered
x-x-96-86
134-130-127-186

REGULAR FOR 08/23/2012
(C) NYM -175 to win 163
(C) LAD +100 to win 160

Filtered
none

5/2
ARZ to win 200

[dominate.]

So how does the 5/2 Arizona game work with the double header? Which one will we play as the "2" or "C" bet? Game 1 of 2? And if that loses, will we play the 2nd game of the double header, making it a "D" bet?

[on3]

play the first game. the 2nd game is not part of the system.

[Wallco99]

Not that it matters one bit, but I've been fading the last place team in each league, in a four game chase, every day since June 25, and currently I am +31 units. I am playing all +money bets. I haven't backtested it for previous seasons, but I will soon. Just wanted to mention it.

[on3]

hey Wallco or JMD, can one of you post the plays for Friday and this series' this weekend? im going to be in London from Thurs-Saturday night and wont be able to post.

[stevex]

on3. I know it was asked before, but this system has always shut down at the end of August correct?

[on3]

yes, end of August

[on3]

also, dont mean to spam, but if anyone is interested in a very large NFL pool, check this out: waterschallenge dot com

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for your consideration in me, but I got a busy work week. I wont be able to keep up with the numbers. I'm sure there are a few people in here who could post the plays and just let people run their own labby lines..... I doubt wallco will run the labby LOL

SteveX could possibly do it? Someone please raise their hand hahaha

[J.M. Disciple]

AUGUST 23
Rays vs Athletics
Rangers vs Twins
Giants vs Braves

AUGUST 24
Orioles vs Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Royals
White Sox vs Mariners
Indians vs Yankees
Tigers vs Angels
Mets vs Astros
Phillies vs Nationals
Cubs vs Rockies
Reds vs Cardinals
Pirates vs Brewers
D-Backs vs Padres
Dodgers vs Marlins

AUGUST 27
Orioles vs White Sox
Yankees vs Blue Jays
Indians vs Athletics
Twins vs Mariners
Rangers vs Rays
Cubs vs Brewers
Pirates vs Cardinals
D-Backs vs Reds
Rockies vs Dodgers
Padres vs Braves

AUGUST 28
Royals vs Tigers
Angels vs Red Sox
Phillies vs Mets
Astros vs Giants

AUGUST 30
Blue Jays vs Rays
Nationals vs Cardinals
Dodgers vs D-Backs

Here is the list of future plays
Note* the team on the left must open using "5dimes" opening line for that day at -145 or higher.
Filtered plays are o/u 9 or higher and must remain 9 or higher before game time.

While on3 is gone for the weekend I am sure we can use this list of plays and not consistently be spoon fed.

Good Luck to all