Line Movement Plays , An Experiment

[kingofmonash]

hullo samwise gangee !! experiment 2b) is a system that takes into consideration disparity in ERA among pitchers having an ERA differential of over 5 runs in their last 3 inns,

example today

Cliff Lee ERA last 3 inns 3.10
the other dude ERa 10+ last 3 inns

the ERA differential among both pitchers is 7 runs, pick the dude with the higher ERA (10+ in the above case)

this system looks to find value where a pitcher who has pitched well last 3 inns will obviously be favored over the dude whose got a banged up ERA last 3 inns, since baseball is a funny game of regression to the mean, i play the pithcer with the banged up ERA hoping for him to have a better outing, some run support and some regular baseball luck ! along with dog odds is a value package in short

hope this helps

[kingofmonash]

experiment 1 (thursday)

minnesote (-104) (2x) -w
detroit (-164) 1x w
kansas (+134) 1x l
brewers (-124) 2x l
nyy (+110) 2x w
washington (-105) 1x w
tampa bay 1.85 (1x) l
arizona (-134) 2x w

5-3 (+3.55)
46-33 (+23.45)

[kingofmonash]

experiment 2a)

st. Luios (-102) 2x l
arizona (-135) 2x w

1-1
11-19 (-15.60)


2b)

florida marlins (+215) 2x l
0-1(-2)
13-3 (+23.06)

2c)

detroit tigers (-164) 1x w
st louis (-102) 1x l

1-1
15-26(-10)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1 (Friday)

Houston (+140) 2x W
NYY (-160) 2X L
WASH (-122) 2x W
CLE (-148) 1X W
LAA (+112) 2X W
TAMPA (-140) 1X W
BOSTON (-130) 2X W
MINN (-129) 1X W
KC (+152) 1X W
cws (+120) 2x L
oakland (+132) 2x W

9-2 (+11.0)
55-36 (+33.45)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

baltimore 2X L
cardinals 2x L

0-2 (-5.1)
11-21 (-20.70)

EXP 2B)

TAMPA BAY 2X W
BOSTON 2X W

2-0 (+4)
15-3 (+27.07)

EXP 2C)

cle 1x W
bal 1x L
LAA 1X (+112) W
MINN 1X W
STL (-160) 1X L
colorado 1x W

4-2 (+2.52)
19-28 (-7.48)

[SamWise]

are you looking at last 3 innings or last 3 starts?

[SamWise]

also where do you get the stats?

[kingofmonash]

i get stats from here

http://espn.go.com/mlb/probables/_/date/20110618

there is a seperate column for last 3 Apperances, this is what i take

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1 (Saturday)
Record 55-36(+33.45)

Baltimire (+133) 1x
Texas (-104) 2x
Nyy (-145) 2x
clev (-147) 1x
minn (-138)2x
tampa (-143)2x
oakland (-105)2x
philly (+122) 2x

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

baltimore 2x
la dodgers (-125) 2x

EXP 2b)

Kansas city (+153) 1x - same pitcher for the 3rd time, hmm not amused,

EXP2c)

baltimore (1x)
bosox (-175) 1x
toronto (+116)1x
florida (+135) 1x
philly (+133) 1x

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1 (Saturday) stunning run goes on for exp 1 !!
Record 55-36(+33.45)

Baltimire (+133) 1x L
Texas (-104) 2x W
Nyy (-145) 2x W
clev (-147) 1x W
minn (-138)2x W
tampa (-143)2x W
oakland (-105)2x W
philly (+122) 2x W

7-1 (+12.44)
62-37 (+45.89)

[Bengals28]

Holy crap. So with that first system you're just watching line movement? Gonna start tailing tommorow.

[kingofmonash]

yes bengals. This is just the bird watching experiment. Maybe we can start fading EXP 2a) and EXP 2c) as well, good cash to be made there as well.

[Bengals28]

Yeah that 2b one looks great too. What times do you usually have the plays up? Gonna tail with 10$ units on the bird watch system starting tommorow.

[kingofmonash]

experiment 2a)

baltimore 2x l
la dodgers (-125) 2x l
0-2 (-4.5)

exp 2b)

kansas city (+153) 1x - same pitcher for the 3rd time, hmm not amused,
0-1(-1)

exp2c)

baltimore (1x) l
bosox (-175) 1x l
toronto (+116)1x w
florida (+135) 1x l
philly (+133) 1x w

2-3 (-1.25)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1 (Sunday)

oakland (-110) 1x
colorado (+127) 2x
san diego (+138) 2x
boston (-112) 2x
texas (-107) 1x
cincini (-130) 1x
clev (-164) 2x
nyy (-200) 2x

[kingofmonash]

EXP 2 a)

cleveland Indians (-164) 2x W
san diego (+138) 2x L
colorado rockies (+127)2x L
seattle mariners (+150)2x L

2-2 (+1)
13-25 (-24.20)

EXP 2b)

oakland (-110) 2X
1-0 (+2)
16-4 (+28.07)

EXP 2c)

cleveland (-164) 1x w
washington (-135) 1x l
kansas (+177) 1x L
colorado (+128) 1x L

1-3 (-2.35)
22-34 (-11.08)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1 (Sunday)

oakland (-110) 1x W
colorado (+127) 2x L
san diego (+138) 2x L
boston (-112) 2x W
texas (-107) 1x L
cincini (-130) 1x W
clev (-164) 2x W
nyy (-200) 2x W

5-3 (+2.93)
67-40 (+48.82)

THE RUN IS ON

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

tampa bay (+122) 2x
chicago ws (-150) 2x
texas (-185) 2x
NYY (+110) 2x
bosox (-190) 2x
colorado (-105) 2x

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

Florida Marlins (+115) 2x

EXP 2b) No Qualifiers

EXP 2c)

marlins (+115)1x
pitts (-105) 1x
clev (-105) 1x

[Bengals28]

can you post them before the games start so I can tail? lol

[kingofmonash]

sure , i will post them 1 hr before game time tomorrow, just too tired last coupla days,

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

tampa bay (+122) 2x W
chicago ws (-150) 2x L
texas (-185) 2x W
NYY (+110) 2x W
bosox (-190) 2x W
colorado (-105) 2x W

5-1 (+7.64)
72-41(+56.46units)

Might be due for a correction sooooon. This is an insane run.

[jolmscheid]

Can you explain what determines your plays for line movement? I don't understand how you arrive at your line movement plays...

[jolmscheid]

Thanks in advance and keep up the good work!

[kingofmonash]

I look for teams whose odds are dropping more than a certain % compared to its opponent with respect to its opening line, the drop in one teams odds needs to be offset with a rise in its opponents odds. Moreover it should hold true once the overnight dimelines(0.10c) change to 0.05c lines.

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

Florida Marlins (+115) 2x
0-1 (-2)
13-26 (-26.2)

EXP 2b) No Qualifiers

EXP 2c)

marlins (+115)1x L
pitts (-105) 1x L
clev (-105) 1x L

0-3(-3.10)
22-37 (-14.18)

FADING EXP 2a) and 2c) -------------> WAY TO BUILD BANKROLL
Will need around 100 plays in total. Then I start for real money

[Bengals28]

You said that first one might be due for a correction, you think it's a bad time to start tailing tommorow?

[kingofmonash]

bengals I suggest wait for a negative day. Then start tailing using half ur normal stake. Once u feel confident, up it to normal stakes, personally im starting the tailing on June 30 onwards !

[Bengals28]

Alright well I'll just wait to jump on board with you. It does look to good to be true so I guess we should wait more and see if it even out over the next week and few days. Regardless i think it will be profitable.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the insight king...so basically if a line moves further from the opener on the underdog than the favorite for example, you would take the underdog? Thanks for the help...and your 2b system is looking good as well!

[kingofmonash]

Thanks for the insight king...so basically if a line moves further from the opener on the underdog than the favorite for example, you would take the underdog? Thanks for the help...and your 2b system is looking good as well!

I am more interested in fading exp 2a and 2c , I see consistency and reasoning agreeing. As for exp 1 it is line move plays. I know its been an insane run but i dont like its streaking. Personally i would be more comfortable with risking real money with something I know about, rather than chance line moves. But lets give it some more games to see how legit EXP 1 really is

[kingofmonash]

EXP 2a)

Cleveland Indians (+122) 2x
New York Yankees (+126)2x
Oakland Athletics (+132) 2x
Houston Astros (+215) 2x

EXP 2B)

L.A DODGERS (+106) 2X
FLORIDA MARLINS (+122) 2X

EXP 2C)

CLEVELAND (+122) 1X
Atlanta Braves (-120) 1x
Oakland Athletics (+132) 1x
Houston (+215) 1x
Cubs (+127) 1x
St. Louis (+163) 1x

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

Phillies (-164) 1x
Washington Nationals (-130) 1x
Colorado Rockies (-130) 1x
L.A Angels (-127) 2x
Oakland (+123) 2x
cubs (+113) 2x


Games posted a hour in advance. May add more later for the later games, if lines move like wise

[SamWise]

very interesting facts with your 2b system play.
I have made another system with your 2b system.
I back tracked it from 6/6 to until today and this is the result.

I did O/U Testing with these the record is 13-3-4 (Win-Push-Loss)