Line Movement Plays , An Experiment

[kingofmonash]

lo gang

Im gonna make seome play based off opening line movements, just for tacking purposes

Monday
Day 1

Cincinnati Reds -135 (2 u)
Minnesota Twins +138 (2 u)
Texas Rangers -158 (1u)
Kansas City +107 (2u)
Washington Nats +173 (1u)

Note games haven been capped on player / team performance , just on bookmakers expectations, i presume they have read into the analysis part of teams / starting pitchers

Lets Go

[Cranium]

Good luck King!

[kingofmonash]

Experiment # 2: Pitchers last 3 inns ERA fade

let me break this down to 2a and 2b

2a deals with fading pitchers having ERA under 2.0 last 3 starts, i believe pitchers will always regress to their mean ERA 3+ , also the other advantage would be getting good value on the other side as bookmaker and public juice up strong favorites

2b deals with backing pitchers having an ERA differential of over 5+ compared to his opposing pitcher (last 3 starts ERA avg)

let go

Monday
Day 1
2 a)
Oakland Atletics ml (+100) - 2 units
Chicago White Sox ml (-106) - 2 units
Toronto Blue jays ml (-116) - 2 units
Tampa Bay Rays ml (-135) - 2 units


Now
2 b)
Detroit Tigers ml (+151) - 2 units
Chicago White Sox (-105) - 2 units

[mp5070]

Matusz for Baltimore, who are playing Oakland, has only had 1 start this year.

[himeshforex]

good luck brotha

[Spaniard22]

Good Luck King! I'll be watching to see how you do...interesting.

[I/O]

GL King

You may want to keep a separate tally of your system plays that are no higher than -$110.

[Vin_vermillion]

If you want, inbox me on this. I have a theory on line movements that you can take or leave....you may all ready be aware of it but in gambling all theories are worth taking a look at.

[himeshforex]

so how was the day

[kingofmonash]

Good Luck King! I'll be watching to see how you do...interesting.

thanks a ton, lets rockettttt

GL King

You may want to keep a separate tally of your system plays that are no higher than -$110.

will consider this, nice point

If you want, inbox me on this. I have a theory on line movements that you can take or leave....you may all ready be aware of it but in gambling all theories are worth taking a look at.

pmmed you , rightly told all theories are worth looking into

[GoldenRichards]

Interesting experiment good luck

[kingofmonash]

lo gang

im gonna make seome play based off opening line movements, just for tacking purposes

monday
day 1

cincinnati reds -135 (2 u) - w
minnesota twins +138 (2 u) -w
texas rangers -158 (1u)- l
kansas city +107 (2u) - w
washington nats +173 (1u) - l (painful loss)

Note games haven been capped on player / team performance , just on bookmakers expectations, i presume they have read into the analysis part of teams / starting pitchers

lets go

3-2 (+4.12)

[kingofmonash]

let me break this down to 2a and 2b

2a deals with fading pitchers having ERA under 2.0 last 3 starts, i believe pitchers will always regress to their mean ERA 3+ , also the other advantage would be getting good value on the other side as bookmaker and public juice up strong favorites

2b deals with backing pitchers having an ERA differential of over 5+ compared to his opposing pitcher (last 3 starts ERA avg)

let go

Monday
Day 1
2 a)
Oakland Atletics ml (+100) - 2 units - L
Chicago White Sox ml (-106) - 2 units - W
Toronto Blue jays ml (-116) - 2 units - L
Tampa Bay Rays ml (-135) - 2 units - W

2-2 (-0.32) need to look at the -110 factor here !


Now
2 b)
Detroit Tigers ml (+151) - 2 units - W
Chicago White Sox (-105) - 2 units - W

2-0 (+5.02)

so a break down

EXPERIMENT 1 3-2(+4.12)
EXPERIMENT 2a) 2-2 (-0.32)
EXPERIMENT 2b) 2-0 (+5.02)

[CHAZ]

When you're watching line movement you need to take into account if there was a injury or someone isn't gonna play

[kingofmonash]

right CHAZ, point noted. I will post todays after a couple of hours or so

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

Tuesday
Day 2

Boston red sox (-124) (2x)
Atlanta Braves (-140) (1x)
Houston Astros (+124) (1x)
Detroit Tigers (+126) (1x)
L.A Angels (-167) (2x)
Colorado Rockies (-145) (1x)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

Day 2

Philadelphia Phillies (-167) (1x)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-114) (2x)
Detroit Tigers (+126) (2x)

Experiment 2 b)

Day 2

Toronto Blue Jays (-110) (2x)

nothing really qualifying here but may be i will start an experiment 2c) where ERA Difference between 2.5 and 5 between starting pitchers are taken

2c)

Day 1

New York Mets (+175) 1x
Detroit Tigers (+126) 1x
Arizona Diamonbacks (-114) 1x
Boston Red Sox (-124) 1x

[Bswitz32]

BOS ML
TEX ML
Zona ML

BOL

Over CHC vs CIN

BOL today this looks like a good experiment

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

Tuesday
Day 2

Boston red sox (-124) (2x) -w
Atlanta Braves (-140) (1x) - w
Houston Astros (+124) (1x) - l
Detroit Tigers (+126) (1x) - w
L.A Angels (-167) (2x) -l
Colorado Rockies (-145) (1x) - l

3-3
-1.35 u

total 5-5 (+2.77)

[kingofmonash]

experiment 2a)

day 2

philadelphia phillies (-167) (1x) - l
arizona diamondbacks (-114) (2x) - l
detroit tigers (+126) (2x) - w

1-2 (-1.40)

net 3-4 (-1.72)

experiment 2 b)

day 2

toronto blue jays (-110) (2x)- w

1-0 (+2)
3-0 (+7.02)

nothing really qualifying here but may be i will start an experiment 2c) where era difference between 2.5 and 5 between starting pitchers are taken

2c)

day 1

new york mets (+175) 1x -w
detroit tigers (+126) 1x -w
arizona diamonbacks (-114) 1x -l
boston red sox (-124) 1x -w

3-1 (+3.86)

[miyakuza]

If you read line movement correctly, you would have seen detroit get pounded two days in a row as well as baltimore...

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

day 3


Florida Marline (-118) 2x
Detroit Tigers (+161) 1x
Houston Astros (+132) 2x
Kansas City (-110) 2x

[kingofmonash]

If you read line movement correctly, you would have seen detroit get pounded two days in a row as well as baltimore...

i did note the tigers, looks like tigers are a go today again

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

Day3

Colorado Rockies (-107) - 2x
Texas Rangers (-170) - 1x
Tampa Bay Rays (+135) -2x

EXPERIMENT 2b)

Cininnati Reds (-132) - 2x

EXPERIMENT 2c)

Cleveland Indians (-160) 1x
Washington Nats (+165) 1x
Baltimore Orio (-139) 1x
L.A Dodgers (+173) 1x
St. Louis (-139) 1x
Seattle (+135) 1x
New York Mets (+153) 1x
Tampa Bay (+135) 1x

[miyakuza]

Line is not moving in Rockies favor bud.

[kingofmonash]

your right , have ta edit it off

[bozeman]

dude i ve done it in the past - it just doesn't work if you think all opening moves will play out in a profit to you. Seek out for sharps after tons of work you might succeed and open @a pimike type of thread@. But this exercise is just for you to realize - that's not that simple

[kingofmonash]

dude i ve done it in the past - it just doesn't work if you think all opening moves will play out in a profit to you. Seek out for sharps after tons of work you might succeed and open @a pimike type of thread@. But this exercise is just for you to realize - that's not that simple

any input is appreciated,

can you guide me on how to seek out / decipher sharp info, im willing to do the tons of hard work , and can you tell me something abt the pimike thread

[kingofmonash]

experiment 1

day 3


florida marline (-118) 2x - l
detroit tigers (+161) 1x -l
houston astros (+132) 2x -w
kansas city (-110) 2x - l

1-3 (-2.94)

[kingofmonash]

experiment 2a)

day3

colorado rockies (-107) - 2x -w
texas rangers (-170) - 1x -w
tampa bay rays (+135) -2x -w

3-0
+5.7

6-4
+4

experiment 2b)

cininnati reds (-132) - 2x -l

0-1 (-2.64)
3-1 (+4.42)

experiment 2c)

cleveland indians (-160) 1x -w
washington nats (+165) 1x -l
baltimore orio (-139) 1x -w
l.a dodgers (+173) 1x -l
st. Louis (-139) 1x -l
seattle (+135) 1x -w
new york mets (+153) 1x -l
tampa bay (+135) 1x -w

4-4 (+0.31)
7-5(+4.17)

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 2a)

Florida Marlins (+109) 2x

2B)

Kansas City (+122) 2x
St. Louis (-116) 2x

2C)

Florida Marlins (+109) 1x

[phillybadboy]

where is no coin?

[kingofmonash]

EXPERIMENT 1

Day 4

Pittsburg Pirates (+111) 1x
Chicago Cubs (+138) 2x
Florida Marlins (+109) 2x
New York Mets (+162) 2x
L.A Dodgers (+106) 2x
San Diego Padres (-127) 2x
San Fransisco (-103) 1x
Kansas City (+121) 1x
New York Yankees (-138) 2x
Minnesota (+121) 1x

[kingofmonash]

LOL

Not in my thread for sure

[dynamite140]

where is no coin?