Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[Dexter]

nothing else from me today in baseball.....im on tilt. lol

[MrSink]

sick

[SDias35]

My picks today:

LAAngels to win TB RAys
Padres under 6,5

i´m waiting to another one...

[Anthonyg7]

Hopefully NBA pulls me out of this one.. i'm tilting .. missed the under yesterday (my mistake for thinking you were on it ) and today's under.. lol.

[Dexter]

i´m waiting to another one...

nice call buddy!

[Dexter]

Thursday 4/7:

(5u) over reds 8.5 (A4 - Reynolds)

[Dexter]

A4 Autobet: Play the over when Jim Reynolds or Mike Reilly are the home plate ump. Play the under when James Hoye or Jerry Layne are the ump. 5 units per play.

*as you can see from my above research, these 4 umps have been 60% or > for the last 2 seasons. thats enough to suggest they have wide/small strike zones.

damn you mike reilly....i had big plans for you!

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/23/veteran-umpires-jerry-crawford-chuck-meriwether-and-mike-reilly-retiring/

[Dexter]

Thursday 4/7:

(5u) over reds 8.5 (A4 - Reynolds)

(1u) over bluejays 8_culbreth

[Dexter]

going through all the data again for umpires from 2009/2010 to try and find a replacement for mike reilly for team A4

[Dexter]

2010/2009 Over Umpires:

Jim Reynolds - 64%/62%
Tim Welke - 62%/59% (new to A4).....missed a loser and a winner so far -

2010/2009 Under Umpires:

Gary Darling - 58%/59% (new to A4)...missed 2 losers so far -
James Hoye - 74%/66%
Jim Joyce - 59%/58% (new to A4)....missed a loser - his game went over so far
Jerry Layne - 65%/61%
Bill Miller - 63%/69% (new to A4).....missed a winner and a loser-

[Dexter]

Revised A4 Autobet:

A4_Play the Over for Tim Welke or Jim Reynolds games. Play the Under for Gary Darling, James Hoye, Jim Joyce, Jerry Layne and Bill Miller games. 5 units per play.

[Love The Action]

going through all the data again for umpires from 2009/2010 to try and find a replacement for mike reilly for team A4

Thanks for all the hard work!

[Dexter]

2010/2009 Over Umpires:

Jim Reynolds - 64%/62%
Tim Welke - 62%/59% (new to A4).....missed a loser and a winner so far -

2010/2009 Under Umpires:

Gary Darling - 58%/59% (new to A4)...missed 2 losers so far -
James Hoye - 74%/66%
Jim Joyce - 59%/58% (new to A4)....missed a loser - his game went over so far
Jerry Layne - 65%/61%
Bill Miller - 63%/69% (new to A4).....missed a winner and a loser-

with Mike Reilly retiring, i went back and looked for another umpire to add to A4. i found 4 new ump's that had a winning % of 58 or > for the last 2 seasons. of the 4 new umps, i missed out on 2 winners and 5 losers. so things worked out that i didnt have them as A4 umps to start the year. i saved myself 17.5u.

[Love The Action]

I really like that Reds over. Both Houston and Cincy have been huge over plays to the start the season. Gotta play those streaks. I'm going to do some more research into the game, but I may make this my biggest play of the MLB season so far. Thanks for all your hard work researching those umps and publishing the results here. Much appreciated. Definitely good info to have in our arsenal.

[TheAntFather]

The Over 8.5 on Houston Cincy sounds sweet..except for Brett Myers is pitching for Houston and he only allowed 1 run to the Phillies opening day in 7 innings.

[d33m]

Locked in that over before it goes up.

[mikief87]

Dex, how many units do you use for your total bankroll?

[Dexter]

Dex, how many units do you use for your total bankroll?

i try to keep $20k in my bank gambling acct.

keeping your gambling money in a side acct away from your personal savings and living expenses is the way to go. comingle it all, and the stress of gambling will kill you.

[Dexter]

A1, A2 and A3 shoould begin next week as pitchers will have made 3 starts for the year. Those plays i should be all over and not miss any since i will have the data the day before each game. A4 will be tough to maintain since opening series umps dont come out until 1 hour before first pitch. There will be some Friday nights where im not around for the west coast games, so unfortunately i am bound to miss some A4's. I will however always keep an accurate record of the A4 umps (booked or not booked) but of course my overall net units won/lost will only be for plays i booked and posted here. I never make plays that arent posted. I need to be around a computer when i book my plays, even though i can call them in - i rely on the internet/websites for my data.

I will go back at the end of the week and add the records for the 4 new umpires added to A4.

[Anthonyg7]

Dex I sent you a pm.

[CHAZ]

keeping your gambling money in a side acct away from your personal savings and living expenses is the way to go. Comingle it all, and the stress of gambling will kill you.

true are words!

[SDias35]

My pick today:

Phillies, Braves and Yankees to win their games

Good Luck

[Love The Action]

Reds total down to 8...big time rlm....what's that about?

[mikief87]

i try to keep $20k in my bank gambling acct. keeping your gambling money in a side acct away from your personal savings and living expenses is the way to go. comingle it all, and the stress of gambling will kill you.

Thanks Dex. So for your $20k bankroll, is one unit considered to be $200?

[Dexter]

Thanks Dex. So for your $20k bankroll, is one unit considered to be $200?

No...i'm not that high of a roller. lol

1 unit = $100

[Dexter]

Reds total down to 8...big time rlm....what's that about?

i didnt envision the total dropping. rolen is out and no major wind factor. under just getting played.

BM just went back to 8.5

[Dexter]

can someone please post the umpires for:

yanks/twins
rockies/pirates
rays/sox

thx

[Anthonyg7]

Yanks vs Twins

HP: Larry Vanover
1B: Tonny Randazzo
2B: Dan Bellino
3B: Brian Gorman

[Anthonyg7]

Rockies vs Pirates

HP: Mark Carlson
1B: Tim Timmons
2B: Jeff Kellogg
3B: Eric Cooper

[Anthonyg7]

Rays vs Sox

HP: Doug Eddings
1B: Dana DeMuth
2B: Kerwin Danley
3B: Paul Nauert

[Dexter]

thx...friggin mlb.com doesnt work for me at my job. the page loads, and then there is no scoreboard.

[Dexter]

Thursday 4/7:

(5u) over reds 8.5 (A4 - Reynolds)

(1u) under whitesox 8_eddings

[Anthonyg7]

thx...friggin mlb.com doesnt work for me at my job. the page loads, and then there is no scoreboard.

It doesn't work at my job either.. so i just remotely connect to my laptop at home.

[Dexter]

gotta get to that astos pen and pound it....

[CHAZ]

There you go Dex