JORGE's 1 Play-A-Day

[jorge1]

Yeah man but no regrets. My win in the first half offset offset my two losses. I took a shot and lost.

I decided I'm going to fade myself in NFL as well. Every play I make I will simply fade and make tons of money lol

I like bases today. Fading marlins should be easy although I looked last night and all the money was on marlins. Taking Colorado should hold and gotta follow up on my kc oak series. I'll see why the deal

[jorge1]

LLL WK: +6.73x 6-2

LL MON: +3.28x 2-0
LL TUES: +5.35x 1-0
LL WED: +4.15x 2-1
LL THUR: +4.14 2-0
LL FRID: -5.83x 1-2
LL SATU: -5.10x 1-1
LL SUND: +18.34x 6-1-1

LMON: +13.28x 4-2
LTUES: -11.8x 0-1
LWED: -13.5X 1-2
LTHUR: +3.92x 3-2-2
LFRID: -5.425x 1-4
LSATU:-1.70x 0-1
LSUND: DAY OFF

MON: +2.52x 2-0

TOTAL: +18.355x 32-19-3

HITTING A 62.7% boys

[jorge1]

Play of the Day:

I like this game because i dont feel many people are on it. I havent searched the whole forum but just browing didnt see much fuzz bout it, which is typical of my plays.

ANGELINOS de Los Angeles @ INDIOS de Cleveland

Lets first look at their past history this year when facing each other. These two teams have met for 2 series, both in LA, but now meet in Cleveland tonight.

Looking at their recent series in september, they have been under 8 runs every single game. In fact, they have only cleared 9 runs combined ONCe in their 6 meetings. Here are their totals this year, from early on to latest games:

7 11, 7, 5, 7, 7

Lets now look at their recent games individually:

Cleveland is 9-0 UNDER in their last 9 games. Looking at why this is we can clearly see their bats are DEAD COLD! In fact, in these last 9 games they have only cleared over 3 runs ONCE, against Trevor Bell in LAA.

LAA is 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 games! Their bats have been hot and cold lately, scoring 7 runs in SA the 11th, but scoring 4 runs or less all the rest of the last 6 games. In fact, their last 10 games they have only scored over 4 runs twice!

Lets talk starters:
Scott Kazmir L3: 3.63 ERA, 17.1 IP, 12 hits, 7 runs, 12 SO, 11 BB, 1 HR.
I like him keeping the scoring down by keeping the HR count down...His BB are kinda high, but his Runs overall are low his last several games.

He met cleveland and dealt 6.0 innings, 1 ER, 6 SO, and only 3 BB all game. Before that he faced OAKLAND and although the game was lost, in his 5.2 innings he dealt only 2 ER, 3 SO, 6 BB and NO HOME RUNS. Lastly, against BALTIMORE, the LATE GREAT BALTIMORE!!! only got 4 ER, 3 SO, and 2 BB from him..The guy is great for an under mainly because of his great composure when it comes to Homers ALLOWED.

Josh Tomlin L3: 4.76 ERA, 17 IP, 18 hits, 9 runs, 9 ER, 10 SO, 6 BB, and 4 homeruns.
Josh Tomlin has been great most of the season. Looking at his secondary numbers he is mostly in the green since the break. His last three he dealt to LAA (3 ER, 4 SO, 2 BB, 2 HR), SEA (3 ER, 5 SO, 0 BB, 1 HR), and KC (3 ER, 1 SO, 4 BB, 1 HR)

I like him specially at home. he has been a steady pitcher regadless of home or away, but specially at home Cleveland always keeps games VERY CLOSE...

Lets talk Bullpens:
LAA FULLY RESTED...EVERYONE has at least 2 days REST
INDIANS FULLY RESTED... EVERYONE has at least 2 days REST

Lets talk batting:
Besides the runs and numbers i already mentioned, let me spit out some more reassuring numbers.

Indians L10 against Lefties: .208 Avg, .2 HR, 3.4 K
LAA L10 against Righties: .198 Avg, .3 HR, 2.2 K

Guys, this has UNDER spelled all over it. I would like to lean LAA here, but I ALWAYS ALWAYS say this....The tribe is TOUGH at home man! No matter what. I never find too many angles to bet ON them, but I dont like to bet gainst them when they are at home.

I see both teams coming out slow here trying to get the win with some solid pitching from both sides. A good 5-3 Angels score seems ver posible, but NO WAY i see this going in double digits out of nowhere with both these teams as cold batting as they have been, and both pitchers being as solid as they have been.

LAA / CLE UNDER 9 -117 1.5x

[Bluedragon]

LAA-CLE UN
CIN
HOU
PHI
COL

that's my parlay for today lol

GOOD LUCK BROTHER

[Bluedragon]

HAHAAHHAHA I just put that on a parlay haha good call!

[cgjeon]

goood luck

[slimpickins]

Like the call!

[HOT WINGS]

Nice write up almost made me want to throw some $ down on it. Undecided but GL hope it hits for ya!

[jorge1]

What up dude? You pay up your dues today? lol...

About your parlay, thats funny man! Im not sure about cinci, i think MILWAKEE wins today, I think FIsh keep PHILLIES score less, and COLO is probably good...just my opinion, but im only on this under for the moment so

BEST OF LUCK MY FRIEND!

[jorge1]

Thanks all for coming by and givin props...i love it how i lost some games last week and everyone else dissapeared. JEJEJEJE! but good to see yall around..this week im turning it around from last week's slump so perhaps you guys will gain the confidence again to play the plays...

for the moment, i hope you guys enjoy the write up...this under cashes fellas! Im goin for it this week!

[Angela]

any thoughts on the Yankees today? Garza hasn't beaten them since '08...

[jorge1]

i was just looking a that..i was grading all the dogs tonight to see which one wins...

I think it sucks NYY has lost 4 in a row now, but something to look at is that its not like their bats been cold, its just that Texas out batted them, and last night was, lets face it, a PITCHERS DUEL....

I like nova ALOT man...guy has a nasty atitude and i like his sinker ALOT...has a nasty fading outside curve ball that i think will bode well with a swinging TAMPA lineup...

I can see either team taking this, but just for price purposes, i would take NYY...

But you know which dog i REALLY LIKE...imma post it in a second

[clint227]

What are your feelings on St Louis tonight? How about the Mets Under?

[jorge1]

STL, its funny but i have a funny feeling cubs take that game..it looks like one of those games EVERYONE expects them to win and suddenly everyone is pissed tomorrow CUBS surprised EVERYONE..

Cubs won last 3 games against them, they are 3-1 this road trip, and STl is completely the opposite. They are 2-5 last 7, 1-3 last 4 games...

the two angles i see for STl tonight is that usually their first game back from the road is tough but come strong second game. Also, Wainwright is really good, but so is R Wells believe me or not. Also STL bullpen is slightly better rested than Cubs, and my favorite closer, MARMOL is not rested...so another advantage...

but at this price i would take CUBS if i had to play the game

[fox sixers]

BOL of like on the play man. I see a lot of backing for the OVER as well.. but I will be rooting for you. Hope it hits.. Kazmir is awful on the road... and I think you have to wonder why the line is at 9? I kinda think that is telling...

Over is 4-0 in Kazmirs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 road starts.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Kazmirs last 7 starts as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

I really hope you do pull out and win! I know how much hard work it takes! BOL just trying to be helpful.

[jorge1]

About the mets UNDER...When i look for totals i dont look for games who i think will be 1 or 2 run games because those are tough to call and relatively rare..they happen, but the key (FOR ME) when looking for totals is to get a good NUMBER...meaning, if the game goes regular, or the game goes as expected, usually the total for it should be between 5 and 9. Now, games that are like 2-1, or 14-10, are both anomalies...so we throw those out...

So, When you feel a game is going to be low scoring, but you get a total of 6.5 or 7, i never feel that is good to bet. YOu might be right, but you sneeze one inning and they will bat in 4 runs...get me?

so, for me, yes, Dickie shuts PIT down...But NYM can explode this game facing Duke ON THE ROAD. He has given up 4 earned runs each of his last 3 games, and only pitched ONE inning his last outing against ATL...he was SHAKEN in this game and i dont trust him coming back...

If this total was 8.5, then i would buy the hook and get it at 9...i would be comfortable there with a NYM 5-2 or 6-2 win...but with this total at 7, i think the number is jsut about right...so if there is no BIG edge for me, then its a no play for me...

So, and remember i said this, NYM will take advantage of DUke today...DEFINETELY! so itll be a tough under to call...and the over isnt too good either since dickey could shut PIT down...

BOL bud

By the way, If you notice my write up on LAA UNDER 9, you can notice that i feel this game's FAIR line should be 7 or 7.5, instead im getting a full 2 runs more to bet the under...why? i think market value and public perception of both pitchers..but i dunno..just my two cents on totals

[sportsguy04]

BOL of like on the play man. I see a lot of backing for the OVER as well.. but I will be rooting for you. Hope it hits.. Kazmir is awful on the road... and I think you have to wonder why the line is at 9? I kinda think that is telling...

Over is 4-0 in Kazmirs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 road starts.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Kazmirs last 7 starts as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

I really hope you do pull out and win! I know how much hard work it takes! BOL just trying to be helpful.

Under is 6-0 in Indians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 6-0 in Indians last 6 vs. American League West.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

[jorge1]

Thanks my man, but i feel both teams are struggling with batting as it is as well...its a big weight of why i like the play..they have gone under the radar with their low scoring as of late..

All the OVERs you mentioned are legit, but the nuymbers i look for an under are all in accordnce with my play...thanks for the info though!!! great contribution and thanks for cheering for me..

BTW,the UNDER 9 was at -110 and has jumped to -125 the last two hours i tracked it...Ill probably be UNDER 8.5 and JUICED by the time its game time...if it is, ill be proud of myself for betting PRELINE MOVEMENT!

BOL bud...saw your plays and will comment in a sec!

[jorge1]

Sportsguy, what up man? hey btw, see that CINCI game wasnt that easy of an under? lol...i think it was U8.5 and it ended up falling right on 9...Thats why i didnt play it my man...

what you on today?

[clint227]

thanks for the insight, as always it is much appreciated! Im with ya on LAA Under

[fox sixers]

I defnitely think you have a shot. no question. both these teams have trouble scoring.. the line does make me wonder though. All the best. Like I said hope it goes UNDER

[decado]

hola jorge hope u will have another good day. i will tail your under. good luck.

i also feel that the total of 8.0 between CWS (Danks) and MIN (Liriano) is set too low and the game might go over. Any takes?

[fox sixers]

and who doesn't love line movement.. Always want that!!

[jorge1]

BOL of like on the play man. I see a lot of backing for the OVER as well.. but I will be rooting for you. Hope it hits.. Kazmir is awful on the road... and I think you have to wonder why the line is at 9? I kinda think that is telling...

Over is 4-0 in Kazmirs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 road starts.
Over is 6-0 in Kazmirs last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Kazmirs last 7 starts as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Kazmirs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

I really hope you do pull out and win! I know how much hard work it takes! BOL just trying to be helpful.

Under is 6-0 in Indians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 6-0 in Indians last 6 vs. American League West.
Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games following an off day.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Yeah guys...i know there are a MILLION different stats for EVERY GAME..there are funny ones, there are misleading ones, there are solid ones, there are really SPECIFIC stats, like " such and such is 199-0 UNDER on Tuesdays in September, when facing a 6'2" pitcher" lol...

but the stats i look for are:

L10 for both teams...L3 for both teams... L3 and L5 for each pitcher... Bullpen availability... L5 batting for each team, and lineup.

Any other suggestions at what else to look at other than what i mentioned that any of you guys feel are SOLID stats to dial into the equation?

[sportsguy04]

Sportsguy, what up man? hey btw, see that CINCI game wasnt that easy of an under? lol...i think it was U8.5 and it ended up falling right on 9...Thats why i didnt play it my man...

what you on today?

Whattup.. yeah man I was pissed... I had reds under 8.5 because I got on it late.

But today I got:

Angels/Indians Under 9
Royals/As UNDER 7.

I love Angels/Indians under. BATs are frozen cold. Plus when you have a MLB team that has Choo and Hafner batting 3and4 you know your offensively challenged.

Same with Royal A's, these two teams offenses are AAA teams.

[jorge1]

Lemme look at CWS for ya bud!

[sportsguy04]

Yeah guys...i know there are a MILLION different stats for EVERY GAME..there are funny ones, there are misleading ones, there are solid ones, there are really SPECIFIC stats, like " such and such is 199-0 UNDER on Tuesdays in September, when facing a 6'2" pitcher" lol...

but the stats i look for are:

L10 for both teams...L3 for both teams... L3 and L5 for each pitcher... Bullpen availability... L5 batting for each team, and lineup.

Any other suggestions at what else to look at other than what i mentioned that any of you guys feel are SOLID stats to dial into the equation?

I was just rebuttling the other guys stats. One to look out for is when the Indians are facing a guy that has a last name starting with K , the UNDER IS 31-0.

[jorge1]

Hey, but why didnt you buy the hook?

You always gotta buy the hook at an 8.5 IMO...I hate HATE HATE HATE UNDERS when you arent at 9 or above...Honestly, regarless of pitching, batting, situation, 9 runs total is like the STANDARD of how many runs get scored in a game IMO...so when they lower the bar to like 7 or 7.5, i always look for a reason why to bet OVER..and when they raise the bar to 9 or above i look for reasons to bet UNDER...

kinda my thoughts guys

[jorge1]

LMAO!!!! JAJAJAJAJA

thats funny..yeah, im just metioning that there are always a billion different stats to chase EITHER WAY...just gotta get into the groove of the ones YOU like! thats all

[sportsguy04]

Local doesnt allow buyinghooks on O/U for baseball.

[fox sixers]

I hear what your saying sportsguy.. but the stats I list as a whole, in my opinion are telling... I actually think UNDER on Angels game has a shot.. I just was trying to be helpful and be devil's advocate.

[jorge1]

CWS/MIN -

their last three metting went WAY OVER!
Minny is 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games!
CWS are 6-2 OVER last 8 games!
Liriano been REALLY GOOD here lately(L3)
CWS hits LIRIANO WELL last game (5 ER)
DANKS been HOT and COLD last 5 or 6 games!
Minny hit Danks WELL last game...


I think this game goes either WAY OVER or WAY UNDER....i am leaning with the WAY OVER here...really am. I know they always slug away wen they meet so its a good number to hit that over..really is..one of these pitchers gets beaten down tonight IMO...i would maybe buy down to 7 depending on price..

[jorge1]

Fox sixers, Sportsguy, both contributions and discussions are TRULY appreciated...so no worries either way.

i love you guys coming in here and discussing PRE game time...i hate is when ppl come in here the next day and say HEY, YOU SUCK...WHY WOULD YOU BET THE UNDER? lol

but thanks, and regardless that is the play...fox sixers has a blog with some great plays as well ppl..might wanna check em out

[jorge1]

Local doesnt allow buyinghooks on O/U for baseball.

AW damm man, that sucks..yeah, that in certain situations is the KEY to betting totals in MY opinion..

[jorge1]

guys, lets discuss the DETROIT / TEXAS game....thoughts?