Ck's 2024 mlb thread

[atthehalf]

As good as it looks with Irving and Doncic out I am gonna lay off of the Cavs-this may be one of those moments wherein a team takes the win for granted and doesn't put the effort.

Stay locked in-I have some more goodies

[atthehalf]

Rot.#553 Spurs+6.5

[atthehalf]

Rot.#557 Hawks/Lakers UNDER 230 to 231.5

[atthehalf]

One thing that I am seeing clearly-the Thunder are RULE BREAKERS. What I mean by that is that they are destroying both good and bad numbers with ease and just crushing teams. And what's more they don't even have Chet Holmgren right now. I don't see any team being able to beat them 4 games. Time to start looking into a CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURE for them like I do with QQQ for my son. Anyway y'all don't care about anything other than getting the moves so

1/4/25

Sixers-7.5 (-9.5 to -11)
Nets(+7) (+8.5 to +9)
SYNERGY SIXERS-2.5 O/U 225


T-Wolves-7.5 (-9.5 to -11)
Pistons (+7) (+8.5 to +9)
SYNERGY T-WOLVES-6 O/U 223


Suns (+1) (+2) (+4 to +5)
Pacers-1.5 (-1.5) (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY PACERS-1 O/U 234


Jazz (+6.5) (+8)
Heats-8.5 (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY HEATS-14 O/U 229


Knicks (-4.5 to -5.5 ML) (-6.5)
Bulls (+2.5 to +4) (+7)
SYNERGY KNICKS-9.5 O/U 232


Blazers (+12.5 to +13)
Bucks-12.5 (-8.5 to -11.5
SYNERGY BUCKS-3.5 O/U 225


Nuggets-3.5 (-4.5 to -5.5 ML) (-6.5)
Spurs (+2.5 to +4) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY SPURS-6.5 O/U 229.5


Grizzlies (+4 to +6.5)
Warriors-2.5 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY WARRIORS-9 O/U 229


Hawks (+6 to +6.5) (+8)
Clippers-7.5 (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY CLIPPERS-13 O/U 224

[atthehalf]

CBB Houston-10

[atthehalf]

CBB

6:30 Rot.# 764 Pitt-10
7:00 Rot.#780 Utah+2.5
8:00 Rot.#787 Texas+6.5

[atthehalf]

Ok here we go boys

Rot.#561 T-Wolves-6.5 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

The only thing stopping me from unloading on the Knicks is the fact that the number hasn't gone to my buy in price of -6.5 and also they are on a back end of a back to back against a faster dog (Bulls#3 overall in pace). looks like a classic case of I either get the number or leave it alone

[atthehalf]

Rot.#570 Spurs+3

[atthehalf]

Damn...what's wrong with the T-Wolves? I had everything there. The line went from -4.5 to -6.5 (which is a 75% number) with less than 63% of the cash (59%) on their side and they are getting blown out by the Pistons. it's weird...

[atthehalf]

Here in overtime an arbitrage opportunity

Nuggets +220 ML

[atthehalf]

1/5/25


Celtics (+2) (+4 to +5)
Thunder-2 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY THUNDER-4 O/U 212


Hornets NO DATA
Cavs-15.5 NO DATA
SYNERGY CAVS-5.5 O/U 223.5


Pelicans-4.5 (-4.5 to -5.5 ML) (-6.5)
Wizards (2.5 to +4)
SYNERGY PELICANS-3 O/U 241


Jazz (+6 to +6.5) (+8)
Magic-6 (-5.5 ML) (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY MAGIC-20.5 O/U 222


Lakers (+6 to +6.5) (+8)
Rockets-4.5 (-5.5 ML) (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY ROCKETS-9.5 O/U 219.5


Kings (+4 to +5) (+6 to +6.5)
Warriors-3.5 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY WARRIORS-5 O/U 225

[atthehalf]

Still kind of blown away by how badly the T-Wolves played last night given the beauty of the move...oh well. Onward and upwards, The Jazz are the best of the bad teams in the league. The Magic have ben shorthanded for like forever-and now Suggs and Black are out for today's game. So where will the points come from facing a faster underdog in the Jazz?

Looks to me like the Jazz may be the flavor later...

The Celtics have a good number-the Thunder blast good numbers far away into another universe. I think that this will be a good one to watch only...

[atthehalf]

Ok simply the Pelicans can guard and the Wizards can't

Rot.#505 Pelicans-210 ML

[atthehalf]

The Jazz have multiple injuries that have popped up seemingly over the course of the day-now that is bad news facing a Magic team with second stringers; a team that defends well. Take the chalk

Rot.#508 Magic-8.5 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Make Magic for 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Again....where will the points come from?

Jazz/Magic UNDER 209

[atthehalf]

And so...also

Magic-8.5/UNDER 209 2 WAY

[atthehalf]

Wow! The Jazz are awesome. I went against my covering machine because of new information and the resulting good number for Orlando. Bad move

[atthehalf]

1/6/25




Blazers (+6 to +6.5) (+8)
Pistons-6.5 (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY PK O/U 227


Suns (+4 to +5)
Sixers-3.5 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY SIXERS-7 O/U 228.5


Pacers-10 (-9.5 to -11)
Nets (+8.5) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY NETS-3 O/U 231


Magic (+12.5 to +13) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
Knicks-11.5 (-11.5)
SYNERGY MAGIC-2.5 O/U 214


Bucks-7 (-4.5 to -5 ML) (-6.5) (-9.5 to -11)
Raptors (+7) (+8.5)
SYNERGY BUCKS-8 O/U 228


Spurs-3 (-4.5 to -5 ML)
Bulls (+2.5 to +4)
SYNERGY SPURS-10 O/U 231.5


Mavs (+4 to +5) (+6 to +6.5) (+8)
Grizzlies-5 (-5.5 ML) (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY GRIZZLIES-5 O/U 226.5


Clippers (+4 to +5)
T-Wolves-2.5 (-3.5 ML) (-5.5 ML)
SYNERGY T-WOLVES-7 O/U 221


Heats (+4 to +5)
Kings-3.5 (-3.5 ML) (-5.5 ML)
SYNERGY KINGS-2.5 O/U 224.5

[atthehalf]

The Suns are whole again however and that could be a problem for the Sixers.

The enormity of the Pacers line is bizarre but it is within my buy in range.

The Blazers have a good bet profile as well.

I am cool on the idea of the Magic/Knicks falling into the range of 209 to 208.5 to look for a possible UNDER. I think that the Magic's injuries have caught up to them. It's one thing to guard well-you still have to have points scored too

[atthehalf]

One other total to keep an eye on is the Clippers/T-Wolves. When priced at 215.5 to 216.5 it's a good prospect for an OVER; especially when the synergy is for 221 points to be scored in a world were everything doesn't go perfectly

[atthehalf]

Stickball talk here. The Guardians grabbed up a good arm to help get through the 8th innings and hand the game over to Cease in Luis Ortiz. He's not an ace; but the price is free and the upside is real. Monumental pickup. Now in the event that he gets a spot start in a bullpen game you will have GOLD

Also Bowden Francis of the Jays is a keeper according to his ADP; I have him ranked as a high quality reliever who is in the same category.

Drop Bobby Miller (Dodgers) either he has it or not; and when you have the offense that he has backing him you can get fooled into thinking he does have it. Don't even wait for spring training.

One to watch is Edward Cabrera of the Fish. He may steal the so show in spring and give us a "let's see if he has mastered his control" start.

My favorites from last year based on the immense share returns are a few of the A's arms in Osvaldo Bido and Luis Medina. One would be silly to not pay attention to them against middling offenses. When these guys give you 5 frames you get that 3/1 ratio and as a sweetener, (because it's the A's) when you look in terms of the value you can get for them on the FF RL. Medina's numbers don't look great on paper-it's the matchups he gets against certain teams that you find the value-and the entire universe on the opposing side because they don't understand nor care to research or believe. Bido is just a STUD.

Jared Jones and Paul Skenes of the Buccos will get you your K's-however you will get charged a handsome stake. Still the juice is worth the squeeze. When Bailey Falter is on the bump-take the UNDER for his K's. Don't even think about it-just do it.

I am wanting for Johnathan Cannon of the Pale Hose to give me more this year. 17.4% K's is not going to cut it. Only throwing 12% 4 seamers and offsetting that with 19% cutters and 28% sinkers, 22% sweepers, and 19% changeups is not a sustainable formula. I would like to see him go with much more 4 seamers or cutters high in the zone and finish em off with his sweeper which is fantastic and has an ignorant spin rate-especially when he goes front door with it to righties. If he can get the K's up to 5 over the FF he will have oodles of value because everyone will be on the opposing side more often than not

[atthehalf]

Rot.#515 Suns-125 ML
Rot.#513 Blazers+6.5
Rot.#521 Pacers-10.5
Rot.#521 Pacers/Nets UNDER 220.5 to 221

[atthehalf]

Also

Mavs+5

[atthehalf]

1/7/25

Suns-4.5 (-4.5 to -5.5 ML) (-6.5)
Hornets (+2.5 to +4) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY HORNETS-7 O/U 228.5


Rockets-11.5 (-9.5 to -11) (-13.5)
Wizards (+11.5) (+12.5)
SYNERGY ROCKETS-13 O/U 229.5


Lakers-5 (-6.5) (-9.5 to -11)
Mavs (+7) (+8.5) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY MAVS-7 O/U 222.5


T-Wolves-5 (-6.5) (-9.5 to -11)
Pelicans (+2.5 to +4) (+7)
SYNERGY T-WOLVES-8 O/U 226.5


Hawks-6.5 (-6.5) (-9.5 to -11)
Jazz (+7) (+8.5)
SYNERGY HAWKS-1 O/U 237


Celtics-5.5 (-6.5) (-9.5 to -11)
Nuggets (+2.5 to +4) (+7)
SYNERGY CELTICS-9 O/U 224.5


Heats (+8) (+12.5 to +13)
Warriors-9.5 (-8.5 to -11.5)
SYNERGY PK O/U 222

[atthehalf]

Boy this Jimmy Butler stuff has the Heats reeling somewhat, and they are looking like a team in disarray. bad spot for them against a Warriors team that got blown off their home floor vs the Kings 120-99 in their last game. Don't expect for the Dubs to take it easy on the Heat and overlook them-it's all hands on deck tonight. The number is one that is comfortably in my price point.

The Lakers are not in their best role tonight as heavy favorites over the Mavs. Even with Irving and Doncic out they still have a clear higher pace and bench production than the Lakers. I mean the synergy is based upon them operating at full strength, but i just can't see the Lakers just blowing them out by 10 or so on the road.

The Hornets get such good numbers that it is mindboggling that they are not covering. This team suffers from a sheer lack of effort obviously because they get blown out in good situations with alarming ease. They get basically no bench production whatsoever also ranking in the bottom of the league in that category.

So that leaves only a handful of decent situations. The Hawks at full strength should be able to blast the Jazz however that team is uncanny and yes they are getting maximum effort on the floor. Still the Hawks have lost 3 in a row and I seriously doubt that they will hold Trae Young out for this game which will help out their #3 ranked pace of play. Doesn't hurt that they get 43.5 bench points each night either for depth reasons in the thin air in Utah,

Situationally the Pelicans have a decent chance to cover the number vs the T-Wolves who are on a back end in a different time zone. The Pelicans are rested and what's left of the team is built on defense and hustle led by CJ McCollum. The T-Wolves line is a odyssey of landmines to navigate to get the cover. 67% of the money has failed to move the number and they are sitting at -5.5. My buy in number for the Pelicans is a little south of that so we will see what happens

[atthehalf]

There is a TNT double header tonight with the Lakers/Mavs first and then Celtics/Nuggets nightcap. So as most know one favorite and one underdog covers on those twin billings. One of the easiest moves is to watch the first game and see if the underdog or favorite overs and then go the other way for the second game

[matt711]

Nice sweep on the 1st 4 , great thread!

[atthehalf]

Alright I am trying my hand on some CBB today as well. Now I know for a fact that the AWAY-10.5 to -12.5 and the HOME-8.5 to -9; HOME-1 and the AWAY-3 ML are GOLDEN NUMBERS in CBB so I am gonna stick with just those since I see some and I will combine that with money percentages.

Up first we got

Rot.#603 Kent State-12.5 (With only 56% of the money on them it's a GO!)

Second ups are

Rot.#617 Arizona-3 (this makes sense because the number went up from -1.5 to -3 and -3.5 on some books with only 25% of the money)

Third up is

Rot.#619 Ohio-11.5 (63% of the money has pushed this from -9.5 to -12 on some books-yummy)

Fourth up is..yeah uh naw

Rot.#606 Akron-8.5 (El Paso NO PLAY-the universe is on their side-I want my money with the orphans)


Fifth up is

Rot.#Syracuse-1 They check in with a scrumptious sub .500 record and give up 78.1 PPG at home EL PASO

6th up is

Rot.#628 UAB-8.5 Same record as Tulane and they are giving them 8.5 points? Tulane is off of a 30 point win too? Ah yeah baybee


7th up is

Rot.#647 Auburn-10 and climbing. Look they are giving Texas (11-3) this many points on the goddamn road? My stomach hurt as I made this move-that's how you know it's good

Next up

Rot.#657 Utah State-10.5 (absolutely no one is making a move on the Aggies with this hero chalk) So it's good

Lastly


Rot.#664 Boise State-8.5 It's the number. It's UNLV. It's good for no reason

[atthehalf]

Condensed

Rot.#603 Kent State-12.5
Rot.#617 Arizona-3
Rot.#619 Ohio-11.5
Rot.#628 UAB-8.5
Rot.#647 Auburn-10
Rot.#657 Utah State-10.5
Rot.#664 Boise State-8.5

[atthehalf]

Alright for NBA...in a world where things are sometimes unfair..

Rot.#531 Rockets-13

[atthehalf]

So until I see the result of the first game on TNT I am muy contento for NBA today with just the Rockets. I will in all likelihood follow the TNT betting pattern tho

[atthehalf]

Pretty obvious that the Lakers won't cover against the Mavs so...it's in my buy in price point too..

Rot.#541 Celtics-10.5

[atthehalf]

Also

Rot.#544 Warriors-9.5