MLB 2018 - SDQL / Tracking / Picks

[FUqer]

SDQL 5/10


ALL = Yesterday 4-3 for +1.00 (Season: 110-106 for +11.25)

ML = Yesterday 2-2 for +0.00 (Season: 71-74 for +2.85)
RL = Yesterday 2-1 for +1.00 (Season: 27-18 for +10.85)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 12-14 for -2.45)


---------------------------------

SU


PLAY: Yankees are 17-1 at Home since April 21, 2018.

17-1 (3.61, 94.4%)

avg line: -145.9 / 132.3

on / against: +$1,660 / -$1,692

ROI: +60.3% / -86.7%

PLAY: Yankees are 17-0 SU since Jul 04, 2015 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 12+ hits

17-0 (4.06, 100.0%)	avg line: -172.9 / 158.3	on / against: +$1,700 / -$1,700	ROI: +57.0% / -100.0%
15-2 (2.56, 88.2%)	avg line: 124.6 / -140.5	on / against: +$1,741 / -$1,903	ROI: +94.6% / -78.8%

FADE: Giants

10-44 (-2.02, 18.5%)

avg line: 121.7 / -131.7

on / against: -$3,262 / +$3,162

ROI: -60.4% / +44.5%

FADE: Mariners

51-140 (-1.59, 26.7%)

avg line: 143.6 / -158.2

on / against: -$6,750 / +$6,032

ROI: -35.3% / +20.0%

PLAY: Mariners

287-280 (0.21, 50.6%)

avg line: 135.6 / -146.7

on / against: +$9,590 / -$12,731

ROI: +16.9% / -15.3%

PLAY: Angels

1072-661 (0.78, 61.9%)

avg line: -134.0 / 121.1

on / against: +$25,591 / -$33,457

ROI: +10.5% / -17.7%

FADE: Giants, Rockies

466-588 (-0.47, 44.2%)

avg line: 101.9 / -114.9

on / against: -$13,388 / +$8,070

ROI: -10.7% / +5.9%

PLAY: Yankees are 10-0 SU since Aug 31, 2017 as a home favorite after they allowed 6+ runs last game.

10-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	avg line: -168.2 / 154.0	on / against: +$1,000 / -$1,000	ROI: +58.8% / -100.0%
8-2 (1.50, 80.0%)	avg line: 122.3 / -136.5	on / against: +$790 / -$892	ROI: +77.8% / -66.7%

PLAY: Angels are 10-0 SU since Jun 09, 2014 when Garrett Richards starts as a favorite when they won as an away favorite in his last start.

10-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	avg line: -168.2 / 154.0	on / against: +$1,000 / -$1,000	ROI: +58.8% / -100.0%
8-2 (1.50, 80.0%)	avg line: 122.3 / -136.5	on / against: +$790 / -$892	ROI: +77.8% / -66.7%

__________________________

SDQL PLAYS




ML

Brewers +145


RL


Yankees -1 +105
Phillies -1 -105
Angels -1 -105

________________

NOTE: These are not my personal plays. I use it to help with my play selections and track the results to monitor how well it does on it's own. It's on you how you want to use it, GL!
________________

Thursday's Totals Projections





(Overall = 168-151) (Overs = 92-89) (Unders = 76-62)



SEA@TOR U9.0 (8.2) -0.8 LEAKE/HAPP

STL@SD O7.5 (8.3) +0.8 MIKOLAS/LYLES

BOS@NYY U9.0 (8.3) -0.7 RODRIGUEZ/SABATHIA

CIN@LAD U7.5 (7.0) -0.5 MAHLE/BUEHLER

MIL@COL O11.5 (12.0) +0.5 CHACIN/MARQUEZ

KC@BAL U9.5 (9.2) -0.3 KENNEDY/TILLMAN

MIN@LAA U8.0 (7.7) -0.3 BERRIOS/RICHARDS

ATL@MIA O8.0 (8.1) +0.1 FOLTYNEWICZ/SMITH

SF@PHI U9.0 (8.9) -0.1 BLACH/VELASQUEZ



Yesterday = 5-7-1

[OlDirtyBaztid]

SDQL 5/10


ALL = Yesterday 4-3 for +1.00 (Season: 110-106 for +11.25)

ML = Yesterday 2-2 for +0.00 (Season: 71-74 for +2.85)
RL = Yesterday 2-1 for +1.00 (Season: 27-18 for +10.85)
OU = Yesterday 0-0 for +0.00 (Season: 12-14 for -2.45)


---------------------------------

SU


PLAY: Yankees are 17-1 at Home since April 21, 2018.

17-1 (3.61, 94.4%)

avg line: -145.9 / 132.3

on / against: +$1,660 / -$1,692

ROI: +60.3% / -86.7%

PLAY: Yankees are 17-0 SU since Jul 04, 2015 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 12+ hits

17-0 (4.06, 100.0%)	avg line: -172.9 / 158.3	on / against: +$1,700 / -$1,700	ROI: +57.0% / -100.0%
15-2 (2.56, 88.2%)	avg line: 124.6 / -140.5	on / against: +$1,741 / -$1,903	ROI: +94.6% / -78.8%

FADE: Giants

10-44 (-2.02, 18.5%)

avg line: 121.7 / -131.7

on / against: -$3,262 / +$3,162

ROI: -60.4% / +44.5%

FADE: Mariners

51-140 (-1.59, 26.7%)

avg line: 143.6 / -158.2

on / against: -$6,750 / +$6,032

ROI: -35.3% / +20.0%

PLAY: Mariners

287-280 (0.21, 50.6%)

avg line: 135.6 / -146.7

on / against: +$9,590 / -$12,731

ROI: +16.9% / -15.3%

PLAY: Angels

1072-661 (0.78, 61.9%)

avg line: -134.0 / 121.1

on / against: +$25,591 / -$33,457

ROI: +10.5% / -17.7%

FADE: Giants, Rockies

466-588 (-0.47, 44.2%)

avg line: 101.9 / -114.9

on / against: -$13,388 / +$8,070

ROI: -10.7% / +5.9%

__________________________

SDQL PLAYS


ML


Brewers +145


RL

Yankees -1 +105
Phillies -1 -105
Angels -1 -105

________________

NOTE: These are not my personal plays. I use it to help with my play selections and track the results to monitor how well it does on it's own. It's on you how you want to use it, GL!
________________



Thursday's Totals Projections





(Overall = 168-151) (Overs = 92-89) (Unders = 76-62)



SEA@TOR U9.0 (8.2) -0.8 LEAKE/HAPP

STL@SD O7.5 (8.3) +0.8 MIKOLAS/LYLES

BOS@NYY U9.0 (8.3) -0.7 RODRIGUEZ/SABATHIA

CIN@LAD U7.5 (7.0) -0.5 MAHLE/BUEHLER

MIL@COL O11.5 (12.0) +0.5 CHACIN/MARQUEZ

KC@BAL U9.5 (9.2) -0.3 KENNEDY/TILLMAN

MIN@LAA U8.0 (7.7) -0.3 BERRIOS/RICHARDS

ATL@MIA O8.0 (8.1) +0.1 FOLTYNEWICZ/SMITH

SF@PHI U9.0 (8.9) -0.1 BLACH/VELASQUEZ



Yesterday = 5-7-1

run line plays are killin it. it makes me feel better about my yankees lean today on the RL. might even make it my DOD

[2daBank]

run line plays are killin it. it makes me feel better about my yankees lean today on the RL. might even make it my DOD

Def looks like yanks rl makes lot of sense. Kinda like ff better but dunno if that plus money? (Havnt looked yet). Little scared of being involved once pens come in as been kinda wild once starters exit this series (from what I hear).

[FUqer]

run line plays are killin it. it makes me feel better about my yankees lean today on the RL. might even make it my DOD

I basically just been adding my touch to the SDQL SU plays and if it's over -130, I'll make it a RL play instead of SU to avoid juice. I started doing that after a couple high juiced plays lost SU and put a dent in the winnings.

I got a whole folder of actual run line SDQL trends that I only checked once this year, cuz most of them or for +1.5 and they put dents in the record when they lose as well and I think I only ever played a +1.5 one time ever and that was this season.

[2daBank]

I basically just been adding my touch to the SDQL SU plays and if it's over -130, I'll make it a RL play instead of SU to avoid juice. I started doing that after a couple high juiced plays lost SU and put a dent in the winnings.

I got a whole folder of actual run line SDQL trends that I only checked once this year, cuz most of them or for +1.5 and they put dents in the record when they lose as well and I think I only ever played a +1.5 one time ever and that was this season.

I love playing the +1.5 but only when I can get it for cheaper than what the fav ml is, freaking love them at plus money in what looks to be a lower scoring game! Won't touch when they super expensive tho.

[2daBank]

Like seeing your numbers lining up with me on that Seattle/Toronto under. Thinking that my DOD as under 9 sitting at +102.

[mrpickem]

team=Phillies and o:STL and season > 2012 and H

PHI home vs lefty 4+ years = 27% ROI

[FUqer]

Def looks like yanks rl makes lot of sense. Kinda like ff better but dunno if that plus money? (Havnt looked yet). Little scared of being involved once pens come in as been kinda wild once starters exit this series (from what I hear).

Yankees were a strong lean for me last night as well and I actually put some time into looking up some things and the only negative spot was their 8 game winning streak.

They are better vs lefties.
Home Favs going for a 3 game sweep are 19-8 this season. +16.1 ROI
Yanks have completed a 3 game sweep 3 out of the last 4 times in this spot vs the Red Sox.
Yanks have won 5 in a row vs Red Sox when Sabathia starts and 9 out of last 11.
Last 8 times Sabathia started vs the Red Sox the total went Under.
Under is 1-7-1 when Rodriguez starts vs the Yanks.
Red Sox have won 6 in row when Rodriguez starts.
Yankees have won 4 in a row when Sabathia starts.
Red Sox have only averaged 1.88 rpg vs the Yanks their last 8 times in NY when Sabathia starts.
Yankees have a .895 OPS vs Rodriquez.
Red Sox have a .619 OPS vs Sabathia.

[mrpickem]

PHI -130

team=Phillies and o:STL and season > 2013 and H

[2daBank]

Good stuff. Also some other damning numbers for Sox bats vs CC. Not good vs lefties and bad against cutters and sliders for which fat boy predominantly throwing these days. That w-l record Sox sporting in Edwardo starts has more to do with run support than him pitching well I believe!

Good stuff on the sweep numbers as well!! Didn't know that but has seemed like teams completing the sweep at pretty high rate this season!!

[FUqer]

Like seeing your numbers lining up with me on that Seattle/Toronto under. Thinking that my DOD as under 9 sitting at +102.

One thing that scares me a little there is Happ has been getting crazy good run support this year, over 8 runs at Home and Blue Jays are better vs righties and Leake hasn't been that great.

[FUqer]

Good stuff. Also some other damning numbers for Sox bats vs CC. Not good vs lefties and bad against cutters and sliders for which fat boy predominantly throwing these days. That w-l record Sox sporting in Edwardo starts has more to do with run support than him pitching well I believe!

Good stuff on the sweep numbers as well!! Didn't know that but has seemed like teams completing the sweep at pretty high rate this season!!

Favorites trying to complete or avoid the sweep have been money the last 2 seasons, I focused in on them a lot in the 2nd half last season and had my better days on sweep days.

[FUqer]

PHI -130

team=Phillies and o:STL and season > 2013 and H

13-2 L15. Phillies vs lefties always triggers and deeper look for me this season, just not sure about Velasquez.

Phillies 6-3 as Home Favs when going for a 4 game sweep.

Teams are 6-0 as Home Favs this season when going for a 4 game sweep.

6-0 (2.33, 100.0%) avg line: -162.1 / 149.6 on / against: +$600 / -$600 ROI: +60.3% / -100.0% 4-2 (0.83, 66.7%) avg line: 127.1 / -147.1 on / against: +$275 / -$375 ROI: +44.4% / -43.9% 1-5-0 (-2.67, 16.7%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$450 / +$400 ROI: -67.2% / +61.5%

4.17 2.83 8.67 6.83 1.50 1.00 2.17 1.17 4.33 12.33 6.17 0.33 1.17 3.83 1.83 2.67 8.67 6.17 1.33 0.50 1.50 0.33 1.50 16.50 7.33 1.17 3.00 4.00

[mrpickem]

It doesn't look near as good when phils as HF and o:STL but I wanted early action so I took 'em ML and RL

[FUqer]

Was thinking about the Phillies for some day action, but the big line movement in the last 20 mins was a big turn off in more ways than one.

Considering Yanks and Braves, Braves Over, LAD FF Under, Brewers TT Over, and Brewers as a small lean at this point. Going to think about it while I get some yard work done.

[FUqer]

It doesn't look near as good when phils as HF and o:STL but I wanted early action so I took 'em ML and RL

Good Luck!

[2daBank]

Favorites trying to complete or avoid the sweep have been money the last 2 seasons, I focused in on them a lot in the 2nd half last season and had my better days on sweep days.

I'd imagine get some favorable lines too as there lots of folks who bet purely to avoid the sweep so I often see those lines get bet down. Personally I've never understood the "due factor", my belief has always been yesterday's game has nothing to do with today's!

[2daBank]

One thing that scares me a little there is Happ has been getting crazy good run support this year, over 8 runs at Home and Blue Jays are better vs righties and Leake hasn't been that great.

Yea leake is definitely the scariest part of the equation. I saw LT was playing Seattle which kinda made me feel little better bout it as I fully expect Happ to pitch a solid at worst game.

[2daBank]

Was thinking about the Phillies for some day action, but the big line movement in the last 20 mins was a big turn off in more ways than one.

Considering Yanks and Braves, Braves Over, LAD FF Under, Brewers TT Over, and Brewers as a small lean at this point. Going to think about it while I get some yard work done.

I just put in a play on brewers, seems like a good spot for their offense to show some life.

[FUqer]

Yankees are 10-0 SU since Aug 31, 2017 as a home favorite after they allowed 6+ runs last game.

10-0 (5.20, 100.0%)	avg line: -185.9 / 169.5	on / against: +$1,000 / -$1,000	ROI: +52.2% / -100.0%
8-2 (3.70, 80.0%)	avg line: 114.1 / -134.1	on / against: +$745 / -$840	ROI: +67.7% / -62.9%

Angels are 10-0 SU since Jun 09, 2014 when Garrett Richards starts as a favorite when they won as an away favorite in his last start.

10-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	avg line: -168.2 / 154.0	on / against: +$1,000 / -$1,000	ROI: +58.8% / -100.0%
8-2 (1.50, 80.0%)	avg line: 122.3 / -136.5	on / against: +$790 / -$892	ROI: +77.8% / -66.7%

[2daBank]

I hate Richards so much, I swear when I back him he looks awful but when I fade him he looks like the guy ppl say he is., only have few guys like this I can get no read on whatsoever and he at top of freaking list!

[FUqer]

I hate Richards so much, I swear when I back him he looks awful but when I fade him he looks like the guy ppl say he is., only have few guys like this I can get no read on whatsoever and he at top of freaking list!

I like him, but I like Berrios too and price is a pass for me. I considered the Under, but both team hit a lot of Homers, so I dunno.

[2daBank]

I like him, but I like Berrios too and price is a pass for me. I considered the Under, but both team hit a lot of Homers, so I dunno.

I leaned twinks and under but yea I dunno either.

[2daBank]

Went ahead and grabbed yanks ff rl at +110. Shoulda used that for my DOD!!

[FUqer]

My streaks chart had 10 teams on it 2 days ago, dropped to 3 after yesterday, but 8 more teams have started on -3 or +3 streaks.

Only a couple playing, Giants -3 vs Phillies +3, I didn't look it up cuz it started already.

Marlins -3 and HD, -18.6% ROI since 2015, 13-18 as a team overall in that spot.

Twins +5 and AD +6.8% ROI overall and +20.9% ROI since 2015, but 3-13 as a team and 1-11 L12 in that spot.

[FUqer]

Went ahead and grabbed yanks ff rl at +110. Shoulda used that for my DOD!!

Plenty of time to change if you want.

[2daBank]

Plenty of time to change if you want.

Na.. I've learned better to just trust initial reaction! Lol.. doesn't change much in my life, have same amount wagered on both, just like to post a winner in there as often as possible!!

[2daBank]

My streaks chart had 10 teams on it 2 days ago, dropped to 3 after yesterday, but 8 more teams have started on -3 or +3 streaks.

Only a couple playing, Giants -3 vs Phillies +3, I didn't look it up cuz it started already.

Marlins -3 and HD, -18.6% ROI since 2015, 13-18 as a team overall in that spot.

Twins +5 and AD +6.8% ROI overall and +20.9% ROI since 2015, but 3-13 as a team and 1-11 L12 in that spot.

Damn, fair to say twinks don't go on prolonged winning streaks very often! Kinda crazy they have only gotten to 6 games 1 time since '15!!

[FUqer]

Damn, fair to say twinks don't go on prolonged winning streaks very often! Kinda crazy they have only gotten to 6 games 1 time since '15!!

That's only as Road Dogs on 5 game winning streaks, and the 1-11 L12 is since 2007. Their 3-7 overall since 2010 when on a 5 game streak. Still looks like they don't go on many streaks though.

[FUqer]

Thursday 5/10/18 MLB Plays


¤ Royals FF -.5 +100
¤ Yankees -1 -105
¤ Braves -1 +120
¤ Brewers +135

¤ Brewers TT Over 5.5 +105
¤ Reds TT Under 3 +110
____________________

[SAX27]

Good work & good luck!! Yanks are hot, took the dog in that game, with you on Braves, no play on Brewers, just added Royals FF...thanks for sharing & your DOD thread!!

[2daBank]

That's only as Road Dogs on 5 game winning streaks, and the 1-11 L12 is since 2007. Their 3-7 overall since 2010 when on a 5 game streak. Still looks like they don't go on many streaks though.

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

[FUqer]

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

I got a question about Missouri for you. I got a lot of family in Jefferson City and I was just checking the region out on the map and seen the Ozark Lakes and got a kayak boner. It looks pretty nice around there and I seen the forest runs right up to St.Louis, so I was wondering what you knew about the area.

[2daBank]

I got a question about Missouri for you. I got a lot of family in Jefferson City and I was just checking the region out on the map and seen the Ozark Lakes and got a kayak boner. It looks pretty nice around there and I seen the forest runs right up to St.Louis, so I was wondering what you knew about the area.

About lake of ozarks? It amazing, have a buddy that moved down there bout 5-6 years ago so I try and get out there much as I can over the summer. Don't think it be very ideal for kayaking tho, lot better rivers and smaller lakes for that. Insane amount of boat traffic so water is incredibly choppy!! I usually spend at least one or 2 days jet skiing on it and man it beats you the penetrate up!! I love hitting the waves and acting a fool but body takes a beating.. you might be able to find few remote locals where you could do a little but you wouldn't really be able to go explore like you can on boat or jet ski cause the boat traffic just insanely heavy in lot of parts.. I will get ahold of my buddy who lives down there and ask if there more suitable spots for kayaking, personally I try to do that on one of many great float trip rivers in the lower and mid state area.

[FUqer]

About lake of ozarks? It amazing, have a buddy that moved down there bout 5-6 years ago so I try and get out there much as I can over the summer. Don't think it be very ideal for kayaking tho, lot better rivers and smaller lakes for that. Insane amount of boat traffic so water is incredibly choppy!! I usually spend at least one or 2 days jet skiing on it and man it beats you the penetrate up!! I love hitting the waves and acting a fool but body takes a beating.. you might be able to find few remote locals where you could do a little but you wouldn't really be able to go explore like you can on boat or jet ski cause the boat traffic just insanely heavy in lot of parts.. I will get ahold of my buddy who lives down there and ask if there more suitable spots for kayaking, personally I try to do that on one of many great float trip rivers in the lower and mid state area.

Yea, I seen some videos of guys talking about how dangerous it is to kayak there. I'm more interested in the National Scenic river trails there in the Ozarks. I seen one in S.Missouri, but nothing more than Class III rapids, cuz my wife will be with me. But, I do a lot of camping too and the Ozark forest up there between Jefferson City and St.Louis looks nice. Is there a lot Bears or poisonous snakes around there?