Yowzer, those are crazy trends on teams scoring 1st.
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ROI doesn't factor in live betting odds, just looking for a good dog spot, not sure if one will pop up.Comment -
I might have to play the Spurs tomorrow. Expanding on the zig zag theory, when a team loses the game before in the playoffs and are double digits dogs at Home the next game. Doesn't happen often, New Orleans and Golden State 2 years ago had a couple and I think once last playoffs. The only thing is I can't remember if it involves the double digit dog playing on the Road the previous game.
The Warriors may win the game cuz they want to match the Cavs undefeated playoffs, but there is also that chance a team wants to wrap it in front of the home crowd. I don't think I would want to take Spurs ML though,
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I'm seeing Double-digit dogs are 41-22-1 ATS - 65.2 percent since 1996 in the playoff after losing, but my database isn't going back that far for NBA and that's not exactly what I'm looking for. That record was from 2013, look like their 11-8 since then. All but 3 or 4 were Road Dogs, which would of applied to the Celtics tonight.Comment -
Wonder what Royals pen situation is like, prolly not good after the two today, I might look at NY RL also.Comment -
I liked it a lot better before the move, but I guess I should of expected people would be on the Over. When you look at pitcher stats and trends overall, they trend Over, but when I looked at the pitchers vs opponent and teams match-up history, they trend Under.
I came up with 7.88 as the total, I cross referenced it with (Road Team Road RPG+Home Team RPGA / 2) + (Road Team Road RPGA+Home Team Home RPG / 2), which gave me almost the exact number at 7.87. So both numbers and of course the avg is quite a bit below the total given, even knowing my model likes Unders. Jiminez also gives up 4.18 rpg at Home and Gibson gives up 3.94 rpg on the Road.
Edit: Personally, I would still make the play now, just not at 9, maybe 9.5 +odds if available.Comment -
Also, if it's a play you was already interested in, then use my information to maybe put you over the top. I wouldn't play something just cuz I played it, unless you really like the info given. I'm good at analytics, but still working on translating it into good MLB decisions. I don't watch as many games a 2daBank or others, so I'm not great on scouting players, only by numbers. I also need to get to know some umpire trends.Comment -
I would like to see the price drop on the White Sox/D-Backs Under 9.5, and Angels/Rays Under 8.5 and Royals/Yankees Over 8 , and for the line to move to Under 9.5 in the Indians/Reds. Done with sides for the night.Comment -
Tuesday's Projections
@LAD -268 72.8% - Total = 6.07
@BOS -191 65.6% - Total = 8.68
@HOU -170 62.9% - Total = 8.19
CLE@ -169 62.8% - Total = 8.38
@ARI -162 61.8% - Total = 8.73
@WAS -147 59.5% - Total = 10.27
@CHC -142 58.6% - Total = 7.96
@MIL -135 57.4% - Total = 8.57
@NYM -130 56.5% - Total = 9.57
@ATL -125 55.6% - Total = 8.26
@OAK -121 54.7% - Total = 9.43
@NYY -120 54.6% - Total = 8.37
@TB -111 52.6% - Total = 8.18
COL@ -110 52.4% - Total = 9.28
MIN@ -105 51.2% - Total = 7.23Comment -
definitely interested in White Sox tomorrow vs a LeftyComment -
I got hammered hard last night, what's funny is here is my model results below, lost the two games I played, and the other one I played, I went against the model, (Philly), the other ones I mentioned I liked but didn't play all won of course. The model is new, but not doing bad, just having a hard time picking them so far, that's why I'm not risking much. The Overs is hitting at 60% and Unders at 50%, so far but needs more time, I think I relied on it too much yesterday worrying about trying to get the best values, which doesn't means shit if it doesn't win. These are the kind of nights that make you wonder if you're wasting your time, but I got the big picture in mind and that's just keep trying to look for ways to put it all altogether and eliminate mistakes.
WIN - ARI U9.5 (6.92)
LOSS - BAL U10 (7.88)
WIN - CLE U9 (7.33)
WIN - TB U8.5 (7.76)
LOSS - NYY O8 (8.64)
PUSH - CHC U10 (9.44)
WIN - PIT U8.5 (7.97)
WIN - PHI O8.5 (8.83)
WIN - HOU U8.5 (8.45)Comment -
As for tomorrow's card, not sure that I'm interested in the White Sox anymore, Covey has been lit up since join the big leagues and is Home run prone, which isn't good for Arizona's ballpark. If only the total wasn't so high, should be a lot of runs scored.
I like the Twins, say what you want about Santana but his numbers this year are crazy good, 0.88 WHIP and only given up 4.3 hits per 9 innings, my only concern is he has had trouble pitching in Baltimore, going 2-6 career.
I also like the Athletics, Hahn's numbers look pretty solid to me and Oakland is on a 12-4 run at Home their L16, while the Marlins are 2-17 their L19 vs Righties and Urena's ERA is fools gold, he's faced the Mets and Braves. Oakland is also on a 15-5 Over run.
Today may be the day to go for the Under in the Twins/Orioles game, and I do have a few Overs that my model is predicting that I always need to look into, Mets, Athletics, and Rockies Overs.
Royals, Giants, Brewers, and Rockies interest me somewhat. Would love for the White Sox and Tigers to have better pitchers going.Comment -
Tuesday Plays 5/23
»-Athletics -118 (2-3)
»-Twins/Orioles Under 9 +105 (7.23)
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Yesterday =
-7 = -7.25
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WEDNESDAY PROJECTIONS
@BOS -226 69.4% - Total = 7.16 - Perez/Sale
@HOU -164 62.1% - Total = 9.03 - Norris/Morton
@WAS -162 61.8% - Total = 9.05 - Gaviglio/Roark
@ATL -142 58.6% - Total = 8.64 - Williams/Teheran
@NYM -141 58.5% - Total = 10.25 - Cosart/Gsellman
@OAK -141 58.5% - Total = 8.51 - Volquez/Gray
@CHC -141 58.5% - Total = $1.00 - Moore/Butler
@BAL -138 57.9% - Total = 7.89 - Berrios/Tillman
@LAD -138 57.9% - Total = 8.00 - Leake/Hill
CLE@ -134 57.2% - Total = 8.01 - Bauer/Bonilla
@NYY -130 56.5% - Total = 8.68 - Hammel/Severino
@ARI -125 55.5% - Total = 7.27 - Quintana/Walker
@PHI -125 55.5% - Total = 7.94 - Chatwood/Hellickson
@MIL -107 51.6% - Total = 8.99 - Stroman/Garza
LAA@ -105 51.2% - Total = 8.58 - Nolasco/Ramirez
Did these last night, and I know the Cubs are starting Kendricks and D-Backs Delgaldo, so I'll update it later, got to take wife out for dinner.Comment -
Nice to come back to two Overs cashing half way thru with the other one .5 away and the under looking good, light and day from yesterday.Comment -
There goes the 3rd Over cashing already, need that.
Got one more Over projected for the day, Oakland, might have to play it.Comment -
Pissed I took Giants and not Royals, and there goes Covey again, even on good days, the bad things stand out the most to me.Comment -
I never know what to make of line moves. Generally I'm not a fan of taking a team that opened as dogs and moves to favs. Obviously I didn't know that would happen and I'm good with getting a good price. truth be told line movement has no influence on my plays cause I have never been one to think I can interpret it! Lol. Hell all my totals moved against me a decent amount today and went 2-1 and could have easily been 3-0 if wasn't for 1 stinking half inning in philly ..Comment
