5/17 Addition, Twins PPD.
»-White Sox +164
»-White Sox +164
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Comment -
I still got to cut out the damn mistakes like this one. I didn't check the weather, knew about but ignored the Yankees going 6-2 Over vs Lefties this year, but played the Under anyway. I had a strong angle but failed to factor the other variables in this case. I don't think I'm touching the Under in that game tomorrow, even if both pitchers are lefties, if anything KC TT Under would be the only option. I was able to pass up on an incredible 66% Under with 250 game sample for the Cubs game tonight, due to other variables, but had a brain fart in this one. Getting better, but still not there yet.
I don't regret the Mets play, but I knew once it went to extra innings it was a a loss for me, I can't win a extra inning game this year, might have to start fading them live.Comment -
Thursday Plays 5/18
»-Cubs -1.5 +105 (1-2)
»-Brewers -103 (7-3)
»-Brewers TT Over 4 -115 (5.16)
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Yesterday = 3-6 = -3.07
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I had a long write up written and when I hit submit, the site was down for maintenance and I lost it all. That's what I get for forgetting to copy it before I hit submit. Just now able to get back on.
Totals got me last night, 0-4 with them, so a little tentative today on them.Comment -
First look at tomorrow's card, possibly Phillies, Rockies, D-Backs, Twins, Astros, White Sox and I think the Marlins are going to get one of these lefties, either tonight or tomorrow. Haven't ran any numbers yet, busy today.Comment -
Friday's Early Projections
CHC -154 (60.6%) Total = (9.26)
PHI -109 (52.1%) Total = (8.53)
WAS -120 (54.5%) Total = (7.13)
COL -115 (53.5%) Total = (8.52)
SF +129 (43.6%) Total = (7.50)
ARI -130 (56.5%) Total = (7.97)
LAD -167 (62.5%) Total = (8.97)
TOR +119 (45.6%) Total = (7.17)
NYY -124 (55.4%) Total = (8.62)
DET -132 (56.9%) Total = (9.82)
MIN -130 (56.6%) Total = (8.37)
CLE +112 (47.1%) Total = (8.16)
BOS -198 (66.4%) Total = (6.91)
CHW -122 (54.9%) Total = (7.49)
NYM -140 (58.3%) Total = (7.38)Comment -
Additions
Thursday Plays 5/18
»-Cubs -1.5 +105 (1-2)
»-Brewers -103 (7-3)
»-Rockies +123 (4-3)
»-Yankees -116 (3-3)
»-Brewers TT Over 4 -115 (5.16)
»-Red Sox/Athletics Over 8 -113 (9.76)
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Twins lost last 8 in game #2 of doubleheaders at Home when they lost the first one and it's a little too early to trust Berrios.
Yankees crushing Lefties not named Keuchel, let's hope it continues. There is a nice SDQL trend going against the Royals also with 250 game sample and -23.7% ROI.
Comment -
Additions
Thursday Plays 5/18
»-Cubs -1.5 +105 (1-2)
»-Brewers -103 (7-3)
»-Rockies +123 (4-3)
»-Yankees -116 (3-3)
»-Marlins +183 (1-5)
»-White Sox TT Over 4 +110 (5.31)
»-Marlins TT Over 3.5 -110 (4.20)
»-Brewers TT Over 4 -115 (5.16)
»-Red Sox/Athletics Over 8 -113 (9.76)Comment -
Berrios kid really looks to have the goods.. was mowing rox down tonight..Comment -
Friday Plays 5/19
»-Rockies -106 (4-4)
»-White Sox -101 (1-8)
»-Blue Jays/Orioles Under 9 -105 (7.17)
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Saturday's Early Projections
@LAD -173 (63.3%) Total = (7.62)
WAS@ -171 (63.1%) Total = (7.52)
@BAL -154 (60.6%) Total = (9.33)
@DET -147 (59.5%) Total = (6.90)
@CHC -147 (59.5%) Total = (7.28)
NYY@ -146 (59.3%) Total = (7.91)
@STL -145 (59.1%) Total = (7.53)
@SEA -140 (58.3%) Total = (9.25)
@NYM -126 (55.7%) Total = (9.99)
@PIT -123 (55.2%) Total = (8.23)
ARI@ -119 (54.3%) Total = (8.24)
BOS@ -115 (53.4%) Total = (8.35)
COL@ -108 (52.1%) Total = (8.24)
@HOU -104 (51.1%) Total = (8.16)Comment -
Saturday Plays 5/20
»-Yankees -118
»-Rockies -101
»-Pirates -124
_________________________Comment -
Saturday Plays 5/20
»-Yankees -118
»-Rockies -101
»-Pirates -124
»-Royals -105
»-Padres +105
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Yesterday = 6-6 = +0.06
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Comment -
Additions
Saturday Plays 5/20
»-Yankees -118 (3-4)
»-Rockies -101 (5-4)
»-Pirates -124 (1-5)
»-Padres +105 (0-3)
»-Orioles -1 -113 (3-1)
»-Astros FF -.5 +110 (1-3)
»-Angels/Mets O8.5 +101 (9.99)
»-Indians/Astros U9 -115 (8.16)
»-D-Backs/Padres U7.5 -108 (SDQL)
»-Rangers/Tigers FF Under 4.5 -120
»-Giants/Cardinals U8 -108 (7.53)
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Yesterday = 6-6 = +0.06Comment -
Sunday's Early Projections
CHC -147 (59.5%) Total = (7.28) Anderson/Arrieta
STL -142 (58.6%) Total = (8.29) Cain/Wainwright
PIT -136 (57.6%) Total = (9.44) Nola/Kuhl
WAS -130 (56.5%) Total = (7.40) Strasburg/Garcia
CLE -125 (55.5%) Total = (7.12) Salazar/Musgrove
TB -121 (54.8%) Total = (7.55) Sabathia/Archer
BAL -113 (53.0%) Total = (7.28) Estrada/Miley
DET -113 (53.0%) Total = (8.53) Darvish/Boyd
BOS -110 (52.3%) Total = (8.15) Rodriguez/Triggs
NYM -110 (52.5%) Total = (9.65) Chavez/Milone
ARI -105 (51.4%) Total = (9.66) Godley/Richard
COL -102 (50.7%) Total = (8.59) Freeland/ArroyoComment -
Sunday Plays 5/21
»-Blue Jays +116 (4-2)
»-Indians +105 (4-2)
»-Indians/Astros Under 8.5 +102 (7.12)
»-Blue Jays/Orioles Under 8.5 +102 (7.28)
»-D-Backs/Padres Over 8 +102 (9.66)
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Yesterday = 5-6 = -1.46
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Short lived experiment with a few FF plays yesterday.
Lines on Astros and Orioles totals are already gone, I played these on Heritage shortly after they were released based on my projections I posted about 3 pm, the rest still can still be had at this point. I would still take Under 8 on both of them though.
Need some more info on Pirates, Red Sox and Reds. Rockies/Reds Under and Red Sox/Athletics Over, share if you got anything.Comment -
I'm now cross checking my total projections with the teams.
(Road Team Road RPG+Home Team RPGA / 2) + (Road Team Road RPGA+Home Team Home RPG / 2)
For example I get 7.55 for Yankees/Rays then the above equation gives me 9.09, opposites sides of the line total, but for the Indians/Astros I get 7.12 and 7.76.
I also know my model is likes to predict Unders, so I need to be extra sure on them, but at the time same it's been great at predicting Overs so far, so I need to start paying more attention to them, especially the ones over a point difference, which has a been excellent so far. D-Backs +1.66 and that's with the alt total of 8 at +102, the only other one is the Angels/Mets +1.15, but I almost forgot about that one, need to look into it more.
Edit: Now I remember why I passed on the Mets Over, because the numbers I got from the above equation came to 7.74, a lot lower than the 9.65 I got.Comment -
Some pitcher records ALL against their current opponent.
Strasburg - 12-12 overall, 7-1 L*, 7-4 in ATL.
Garcia - 6-3 overall, 4-1 L5.
Freeland - 0-0
Arroyo - 6-6 overall, 3-1 L4, 4-1 in Cincy.
Nola - 0-1
Kuhl - 1-0
Cain - 4-9 overall, 1-5 L6, 0-6 in STL.
Wainwright - 6-9 overall, 0-4 L4.
Godley - 2-1
Richard - 10-5 overall, 3-4 L7, 6-2 in SD.
Darvish - 6-0 overall, Over 6-0.
Boyd - 1-3 overall, Under 4-0.
Sabathia - 18-20 overall, 6-0 L6, 4-0 L4 in TB.
Archer - 8-6 overall, 1-6 L7, 4-2 in TB.
Estrada - 7-3 overall, 2-3 in BAL, Under 5-0 in BAL.
Miley - 3-4 overall
Salazar - 2-1 overall, Under 3-0.
Musgrove - 0-0
Rodriguez - 0-1
Triggs - 0-1
Chavez - 0-0
Milone - 8-4 overall, Over 8-3-1.
Anderson - 2-2
Arrieta - 8-5 overall, 6-1 L7, 4-5 in CHI.Comment -
Most Profitable vs Lefties
--2017 --- 2016
$+818 - $-0785 Rockies (10-5)
$+617 - $+0270 White Sox (9-4)
$+465 - $+0085 Yankees (7-3)
$+362 - $-0020 Cubs (7-3)
$+308 - $-0977 Athletics (7-5)
$+259 - $+0375 Twins (7-5)
$+202 - $+0087 Angels (7-5)
$+169 - $+0082 Orioles (9-7)
$+150 - $-0620 Braves (2-1)
$+137 - $+0182 Rangers (5-4)
$+126 - $+1805 Brewers (5-5)
$+100 - $+0018 Tigers (6-4)
$+100 - $-0090 Nationals (2-1)
$+081 - $-1259 Mariners (5-4)
$+075 - $+0752 Giants (9-10)
$+047 - $+1385 Marlins (4-5)
$+035 - $+0118 Diamondbacks (7-7)
Least Profitable vs Lefties
--2017 --- 2016
$-844 - $+0872 Indians (7-9)
$-678 - $-0384 Blue Jays (2-7)
$-410 - $-0775 Rays (5-9)
$-328 - $-0242 Reds (3-6)
$-319 - $-1000 Cardinals (3.5)
$-274 - $+0643 Padres (5-9)
$-272 - $+1308 Pirates (6-9)
$-262 - $-1204 Dodgers (9-8)
$-239 - $-0051 Mets (3-5)
$-127 - $-0007 Royals (5-7)
$-097 - $-0529 Astros - (6-5)
$-085 - $+0554 Phillies (4-6)
$-021 - $+0021 Red Sox (3-3)
Facing a Lefty today:
Nationals
Reds
D-Backs
Rangers
Rays
Blue Jays
Athletics
Mariners
AngelsComment -
Awesome. I always take teams based off how they hit lhp but I never pay much attention to what their w/l record actually is. Thanks...Comment -
On jays and tribe as well. Gl todayComment -
Why the over on BOS/OAK there a total of 2/39 against each other with the pitchers for today. What's our angleComment -
Monday's Early Projections
@CHC -197 (66.3%) Total = (7.44)
@ARI -178 (64.0%) Total = (6.92)
@TB -162 (61.8%) Total = (7.76)
@NYY -147 (59.5%) Total = (7.91)
CLE@ -133 (57.1%) Total = (7.33)
@BAL -131 (56.7%) Total = (7.88)
@PHI -125 (55.7%) Total = (8.83)
PIT@ -112 (52.8%) Total = (7.97)
@HOU -103 (50.7%) Total = (8.45)Comment -
Monday Plays 5/22
»-Indians -108 (4-2)
»-Twins/Orioles Under 9 +116 (7.88)
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Yesterday = 3-2 = +1.23
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Killed the closing lines yesterday, hopefully I can do the same today. Grabbing these now, I like the Phillies and maybe the Tigers and Rays, but I don't think the prices are going anywhere on them and if so, oh well. Possibly the Indians/Reds Under 9 +102, but not sure where I think the line might go and having a hard time with that one. I want to start trying to get the Unders early, so if there is a line-up change, the total will usually go down.Comment -
Like the Celtics and Under tonight also, too many points for LeBron to play around with.Comment -
There was 4 or 5 teams on losing streaks of 3 or more, they all won today.
There was 4 teams on winning streaks of 3 or more, they all lost today.
Comment -
Texas and the Over seem like winners tonight, but I don't like the prices.Comment -
Teams that score first.
21682-10947 (1.54, 66.5%) avg line: -108.1 / -104.5 on / against: +$1,173,764 / -$1,338,099 ROI: +28.9% / -33.5% Comment -
Road Team scores first on Sunday Night.
143-91 (1.10, 61.1%) avg line: 113.4 / -125.1 on / against: +$7,719 / -$8,886 ROI: +29.7% / -28.6% 125-52 (1.72, 70.6%) avg line: -137.6 / 123.6 on / against: +$6,041 / -$6,896 ROI: +23.3% / -34.7% 122-101-9 (0.63, 54.7%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$1,126 / -$3,665 ROI: +4.4% / -14.1% Comment -
Scored first and blew the lead on Sunday night.
48-142 (-1.53, 25.3%) avg line: 103.1 / -115.3 on / against: -$10,762 / +$9,923 ROI: -48.1% / +40.8% 99-75-15 (1.04, 56.9%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: +$1,765 / -$3,610 ROI: +8.5% / -17.2%
Edit - Not sure if it counted as a blown lead, they left them loaded in bottom of 1st.Comment -
Away team scores first on Sunday Night and Home team ties it after 1st inning.
76-53 (0.98, 58.9%) avg line: 116.5 / -128.7 on / against: +$3,733 / -$4,373 ROI: +26.1% / -24.9%
Away Favorite scores first on Sunday Night and Home team ties it after 1st inning.
26-9 (1.69, 74.3%) avg line: -139.3 / 127.8 on / against: +$1,490 / -$1,580 ROI: +30.6% / -45.1% Comment
