MLB - 2016 Playoff Plays

LT Profits · 10-26-16, 06:30 AM

MLB Play Wednesday

WEDNESDAY, 10/26
Cubs / Indians UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)

YTD: 452-464-25, +3.66

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 10-13-2, -2.15

Snake24 · 10-26-16, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

WEDNESDAY, 10/26
Cubs / Indians UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)

YTD: 452-464-25, +3.66

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 10-13-2, -2.15

Now you take the under... What's your model results for tonight? Thanks, LT!

LT Profits · 10-26-16, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Snake24

Now you take the under... What's your model results for tonight? Thanks, LT!

Cubs 59% (-144), 6.8

I was gambling on the weather, but may have screwed up given the line movement on the Over.

lakerboy · 10-26-16, 09:57 AM

Sharps do NOT like arrieta.

eddycash · 10-26-16, 10:03 AM

does this mean this play is no good now?

eddycash · 10-26-16, 10:04 AM

im tired of losing lol

LT Profits · 10-28-16, 06:42 AM

MLB Play Friday

FRIDAY, 10/28
Indians / Cubs UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

YTD: 453-464-25, +4.66

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 11-13-2, -1.15

Brooklyn Dick · 10-28-16, 06:49 AM

Weather 8/05 - Daily Baseball Data

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

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LT Profits · 10-28-16, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

Then why is total so low? Usually they post double-digit totals at Wrigley when wind is blowing out, you'd expect around 9 with these two pitchers. Regardless, model has weather-neutral 6.9 and the deed is done.

44 Mag · 10-28-16, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Then why is total so low? Usually they post double-digit totals at Wrigley when wind is blowing out, you'd expect around 9 with these two pitchers. Regardless, model has weather-neutral 6.9 and the deed is done.

I'll make a side bet with you, the game goes over 6.9 ???

LT Profits · 10-28-16, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

I'll make a side bet with you, the game goes over 6.9 ???

If the pitchers are on, game could still resemble first two games.

44 Mag · 10-28-16, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

If the pitchers are on, game could still resemble first two games.

Gentlemen's bet then, no points or money ???

LT Profits · 10-28-16, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Gentlemen's bet then, no points or money ???

Na no point. I will take exactly 7.

44 Mag · 10-28-16, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Na no point. I will take exactly 7.

OK, as stated earlier (6.9) I am taking over 7 GL boss.

LT Profits · 10-28-16, 02:18 PM

1 MLB Addition Friday

FRIDAY, 10/28
Indians +187 (5 Dimes)
Indians / Cubs UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)

edoggdriveby · 10-29-16, 12:04 AM

Excellent bets. Been following your posts for years and just love when these types of unders (and ml dogs) hit for ya.

LT Profits · 10-29-16, 09:07 AM

MLB Play Saturday

SATURDAY, 10/29
Indians / Cubs UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)

YTD: 455-464-25, +7.53

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 13-13-2, +1.72

BaseballChaser · 10-29-16, 01:04 PM

I'm assuming you like Cleveland, but line is too far off of model #?

LT Profits · 10-30-16, 09:49 AM

MLB Play Sunday

SUNDAY, 10/30
Indians / Cubs OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)

YTD: 455-465-25, +6.53

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 13-14-2, +0.72

44 Mag · 10-30-16, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

SUNDAY, 10/30
Indians / Cubs OVER 7 -105 (Heritage)

YTD: 455-465-25, +6.53

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 13-14-2, +0.72

A Rare over for LT.

LT Profits · 11-01-16, 06:42 AM

MLB Play Tuesday

TUESDAY, 11/1
Cubs / Indians OVER 7.5 +110 (Heritage)

YTD: 455-466-25, +5.48

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 13-15-2, -0.33

Note that Over 7 is OK up to -120

eddycash · 11-01-16, 08:33 AM

Any lean on a side?

LT Profits · 11-01-16, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by eddycash

Any lean on a side?

Lean Tribe, model loves them at Cubs 54% (-117)

Brooklyn Dick · 11-01-16, 09:18 AM

LT, any reason you are not playing Cleve here?

LT Profits · 11-01-16, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

LT, any reason you are not playing Cleve here?

If this was a regular season game, I would not hesitate. I am worried about the Cubs desperation factor, and the market is buying into that it looks like. I still reserve the right to MAYBE add Cleveland later though.

StackinGreen · 11-01-16, 01:06 PM

LT, nearly every game has had +EV on Tribe. Kluber should have been a bigger favorite in game 1, though not a bad line, Arrieta rightful fav in game 2 against Bauer who may have been "injured" ... but the Cubs since then have been overvalued immensely games 3-4-5.

Tonight, don't overthink it: Tomlin and Tomlin +1.5

The Cubs don't score easily. The AL is a superior league than the NL. End of story. This Cleveland team isn't even close to full strength, either.

eddycash · 11-01-16, 02:04 PM

This guy makes me want to take cubs lol

LT Profits · 11-02-16, 06:26 AM

MLB Play Wednesday

WEDNESDAY, 11/2
Indians +108 (Bookmaker)

YTD: 456-466-25, +6.58

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 14-15-2, +0.77

StackinGreen · 11-02-16, 09:28 AM

The Naquin/Chisenhall blooper set the table last night.

Still, it'll revert to the Indians, even though it will be close.

I say Indians 4-2.

eddycash · 11-02-16, 02:27 PM

Hmm I'm not sure LT, cubs might take this

LT Profits · 11-02-16, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Hmm I'm not sure LT, cubs might take this

Give me the best pitcher in the AL as a home underdog and I will take my chances.

Model has Cleveland 57% (-133)

And this is one case where the large variance does not bother me as much as it normally would, I understand the need to skew the Cubs line is what may be the most heavily bet MLB game of the year.

LT Profits · 11-02-16, 11:57 PM

Well, it was not another +93 unit season like my year from the gods last season, but at least I finished in the black, coming back from a low-water mark of -19.80

2016 FINAL: 456-467-25, +5.58

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 14-16-2, -0.23

Rich Boy · 11-03-16, 01:33 AM

Not bad LT, way to grind it out for a profitable season

44 Mag · 11-03-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Well, it was not another +93 unit season like my year from the gods last season, but at least I finished in the black, coming back from a low-water mark of -19.80

2016 FINAL: 456-467-25, +5.58

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 14-16-2, -0.23

Way to hang in there boss, nice job.

bonesesh · 11-04-16, 08:03 PM

I enjoyed the ride this season, LT.