MLB - 2016 Playoff Plays

BaseballChaser · 10-19-16, 12:41 PM

LT if you were in charge of the Cubs rotation would you start Lester tonight on 3 days rest, so he could also start a potential game 7? Push Lackey to game 5.

Brooklyn Dick · 10-19-16, 01:56 PM

LT, what do have the Toronto price at please?

LT Profits · 10-19-16, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by BaseballChaser

LT if you were in charge of the Cubs rotation would you start Lester tonight on 3 days rest, so he could also start a potential game 7? Push Lackey to game 5.

No, rotation seems fine right now with Hendricks/Arrieta lined up for Games 6-7. It's nice when your staff is good enough that you can use 4 starters and pitch them all on normal rest throughout.

Regardless, I like Dodgers to win World Series.

LT Profits · 10-19-16, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

LT, what do have the Toronto price at please?

Again I forgot to post 60%er.

Toronto 63% (-170)

eddycash · 10-19-16, 02:49 PM

LT don't jinx my dodgers future play

dirtycash66 · 10-19-16, 09:53 PM

LT you really sucked at baseball this year 😡

POOLSIDE · 10-20-16, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Regardless, I like Dodgers to win World Series.

Has the team that's knocked the Blue Jays out of the playoffs ever not won the World Series? This is a very important statistic to add to the model.

For real though, the extra rest is good/bad/doesn't matter for the Indians?

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by POOLSIDE

Has the team that's knocked the Blue Jays out of the playoffs ever not won the World Series? This is a very important statistic to add to the model.

For real though, the extra rest is good/bad/doesn't matter for the Indians?

It certainly helps them set up their rotation anyway they want. But the problem is whoever wins the NL will still have the better rotation overall, putting pressure on Kluber to win all of his starts.

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 06:40 AM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

LT you really sucked at baseball this year ��

I don't know, I still see a + sign YTD.

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by eddycash

LT don't jinx my dodgers future play

I still like Dodgers at 2-2 because I suspect I will be on them every game. Would be much easier if they win at home tonight though with Kershaw going on full rest in Game 6.

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 08:35 AM

MLB Play Thursday

THURSDAY, 10/20
Dodgers +147 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 451-462-25, +4.76

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 9-11-2, -1.05

Cubbereer · 10-20-16, 08:36 AM

Hey LT, just out of curiosity, what does the model say?

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by Cubbereer

Hey LT, just out of curiosity, what does the model say?

Cubs 55% (-122), 7.6

juicername · 10-20-16, 10:27 AM

With an estimated total of 7.6 it's almost value at over 7?

LT Profits · 10-20-16, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by juicername

With an estimated total of 7.6 it's almost value at over 7?

Not really unless I get an nice + number, like +115.

POOLSIDE · 10-20-16, 07:10 PM

Line is up to +157 at heritage. Thoughts?

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 06:55 AM

MLB Play Saturday

SATURDAY, 10/22
Dodgers / Cubs UNDER 6.5 -120 (Bookmaker)

YTD: 451-463-25, +3.76

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 9-12-2, -2.05

getlucky2win · 10-22-16, 06:56 AM

We laying -130 on Clayton? What numbers u get for side and total?

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

We laying -130 on Clayton? What numbers u get for side and total?

I like Dodgers but am not betting them. I never lay -130 or more, but even of line dips below that, I still wouldn't bet due to huge variance from my model.

Dodgers 62% (-163), 5.2

getlucky2win · 10-22-16, 07:04 AM

I probably end up with small bet on la. What did model have for last game u took him at -121?

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

I probably end up with small bet on la. What did model have for last game u took him at -121?

Also 62% (makes sense with pitching rematch at Wrigley) but another variable I did not mention is the RLM on this game that was not there in Game 2. CUBS had the higher % of bets that game, whereas I am seeing 62% on Dodgers tonight as of now and yet line dropped 5 cents at Pinny.

getlucky2win · 10-22-16, 07:28 AM

I am seeing 59pct cubs at free spot insights. Do u pay for any of these services?

eddycash · 10-22-16, 08:18 AM

Under rather than Dodgers? I dunno LT

LT Profits · 10-22-16, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

I am seeing 59pct cubs at free spot insights. Do u pay for any of these services?

Every site uses different sources, I use Sports Options and they are now at 58% Dodgers

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 06:43 AM

MLB Play Tuesday

TUESDAY, 10/25
Cubs -110 (Heritage)

YTD: 452-463-25, +4.76

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 10-12-2, -1.05

Nateboogy · 10-25-16, 07:02 AM

Are these plays still following model?

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

Are these plays still following model?

Yeppir, although I'll occasionally accept less variance.

44 Mag · 10-25-16, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yeppir, although I'll occasionally accept less variance.

What's a "Yeppir" ???

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

What's a "Yeppir" ???

Yez'm

Snake24 · 10-25-16, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

TUESDAY, 10/25
Cubs -110 (Heritage)

YTD: 452-463-25, +4.76

Regular Season: 442-451-23, +5.81
Playoffs: 10-12-2, -1.05

I was hoping you were on the under...

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by Snake24

I was hoping you were on the under...

I get 6.9, so nothing there

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 05:39 PM

Who would have thought the line would move against the Cubs, and this is just the second time I bet them all year.

eddycash · 10-25-16, 06:08 PM

Do you still like the play?

LT Profits · 10-25-16, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by eddycash

Do you still like the play?

Yes I do, especially with the DH.

eddycash · 10-25-16, 06:33 PM

Im nervous lol dunno if i should pull the trigger