HeeluvaGuy's MLB/NCAAF/NFL/NCAAB/CFL and others picks

[CappinTerp]

Sound good.................................... ..BOL!!

[doubledime]

Good reasoning. For my 2 cents, I like it. Just to add, Texas relievers have pitched a total 138 pitches the last 3 days and the relief staff's ERA is 5.46 on the road. Let's get it!

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/14:

Detroit tt o4.5 -105

Tigers went over in the 7th and finished with 7 runs.

3-3-2 (+.17u)

[doubledime]

Tigers went over in the 7th and finished with 7 runs.

3-3-2 (+.17u)

Thank you

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thank you

Gonna take a lot more to pay you back for all the winners this summer, but glad I could contribute.

[doubledime]

Gonna take a lot more to pay you back for all the winners this summer, but glad I could contribute.

It's a team effort

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/15:


Mets +112
Arizona is now 0 and 7 in the first game back home from a road trip and are losing those games by an average of 5.7 runs. Two weeks ago they lost to Washington 14-1 when they returned to the desert. Monday they face the same Mets team they swept last week. In fact, this is a rematch of last Wednesday night's game that Arizona won 3-2 in extra innings. Arizona is 19-39 at home and was humiliated 16-2 on Sunday in Boston. Looking for the DBacks' home woes to continue Monday night.

[doubledime]

I do like these little doggies. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/15:


Mets +112

Missed badly here. Colon is cursed and will never beat the DBacks.

3-4-2 (-.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/16:

Brewers tt o3.5 -105 (Gm 1)
Has everyone forgotten how terrible Trevor Cahill was as a starter? Let me remind you:

	as Starter	173	4374	3849	516	995	192	24	103	104	35	405	694	1.71	.259	.332	.401	.734	1544	109	40	42	38	5	41	.289	102
	as Reliever	72	430	376	39	86	13	1	9	15	2	46	106	2.30	.229	.321	.340	.661	128	8	5	3	0	5	5	.295	83

	as Starter	62	70	.470	4.16	173	173	0	3	2	0	1025.0	995	516	474	103	405	5	694	40	4	54	4374	1.366	6.1	1.71
	as Reliever	4	5	.444	3.34	72	0	28	0	0	1	99.2	86	39	37	9	46	5	106	5	0	4	430	1.324	9.6	2.30

Today he gets the start in Game 1 of a day/night doubleheader at Wrigley. He's coming off of an injury and making his first appearance since before the All-Star break. In six AAA rehab starts he gave up 12 runs (10 earned) in 19.2 innings. In his last rehab outing he pitched just 2 innings. Hard to believe that his arm is fully stretched out, and I've read reports that he may be limited to 60 pitches or so today. If that's the case, he'll turn the ball over to a Cub bullpen that just gave up 12 runs in 7.2 innings over the weekend. The Brewers are averaging 5 rpg over the past week and have scored more than 3 runs in 5 of those games. Wind is blowing in some today, but I don't expect that to be enough to keep the Brew Crew under 4 runs this afternoon.

[Mike Huntertz]

Looks good to me!

8/16:

Brewers tt o3.5 -105 (Gm 1)
Has everyone forgotten how terrible Trevor Cahill was as a starter? Let me remind you:

	as Starter	173	4374	3849	516	995	192	24	103	104	35	405	694	1.71	.259	.332	.401	.734	1544	109	40	42	38	5	41	.289	102
	as Reliever	72	430	376	39	86	13	1	9	15	2	46	106	2.30	.229	.321	.340	.661	128	8	5	3	0	5	5	.295	83

	as Starter	62	70	.470	4.16	173	173	0	3	2	0	1025.0	995	516	474	103	405	5	694	40	4	54	4374	1.366	6.1	1.71
	as Reliever	4	5	.444	3.34	72	0	28	0	0	1	99.2	86	39	37	9	46	5	106	5	0	4	430	1.324	9.6	2.30

Today he gets the start in Game 1 of a day/night doubleheader at Wrigley. He's coming off of an injury and making his first appearance since before the All-Star break. In six AAA rehab starts he gave up 12 runs (10 earned) in 19.2 innings. In his last rehab outing he pitched just 2 innings. Hard to believe that his arm is fully stretched out, and I've read reports that he may be limited to 60 pitches or so today. If that's the case, he'll turn the ball over to a Cub bullpen that just gave up 12 runs in 7.2 innings over the weekend. The Brewers are averaging 5 rpg over the past week and have scored more than 3 runs in 5 of those games. Wind is blowing in some today, but I don't expect that to be enough to keep the Brew Crew under 4 runs this afternoon.

[doubledime]

Missed this one, in meetings.... damn that pesky thing called work! Good luck to you

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks fellas. Not looking good, but not over yet. Swinging at too many balls.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Whiffed badly yesterday with Milwaukee. Looks like I missed out on all of the reasonable lines today, so I'm gonna pass.

3-5-2 (-1.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/17:

ARI/SDP o8.5 -103
These are two of the top 5 over teams in baseball this year. Believe it or not, the over is 33-23 at Petco Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly field. The over is 8-1 when these two play this season, and 7 of those games have gone over 8 runs. Arizona's bullpen is completely tapped, and tonight's starter, Archie Bradley, has had some trouble staying in games, particularly of late.

[doubledime]

8/17:

ARI/SDP o8.5 -103
These are two of the top 5 over teams in baseball this year. Believe it or not, the over is 33-23 at Petco Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly field. The over is 8-1 when these two play this season, and 7 of those games have gone over 8 runs. Arizona's bullpen is completely tapped, and tonight's starter, Archie Bradley, has had some trouble staying in games, particularly of late.

I like it. We are on the same page here. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

I like it. We are on the same page here. Good luck

Thanks DD. Keep killing it in your thread.

[doubledime]

Thanks DD. Keep killing it in your thread.

Thanks HG. I went to sleep last night and the Seattle play had 4 runs by the second, thought we were in good shape.....not!

[doubledime]

Nicely done

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/17:

ARI/SDP o8.5 -103

Nicely done

Thanks DD. Good to have one go as expected.

4-5-2 (-.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/19:



STL/PHI o9 -105

These are the #4 and #9 over teams this season, and St. Louis is the #1 road over team (36-20). The Cards are averaging 5.6 runs on the road, with an OPS of .773. Over the past week, the over is 5-0 in Cardinal games, and they're averaging 6.4 runs over that span (and giving up 5.6). Against lefty starters, the Cardinals are averaging 5 rpg, and the over is 21-12. Before pushing the total in their last two games, the Phillies had a streak of 10 straight overs. The Phillies' offensive numbers for the season haven't been good, but during this home stand their games are averaging 15.2 runs (scoring 7, allowing 8.2). It was way back in May, but when St. Louis faced Adam Morgan, they scored 3 runs in 4 innings against him. In 76 PAs, these Phillies have a .704 OPS against Wainwright.

[doubledime]

8/19:



STL/PHI o9 -105

These are the #4 and #9 over teams this season, and St. Louis is the #1 road over team (36-20). The Cards are averaging 5.6 runs on the road, with an OPS of .773. Over the past week, the over is 5-0 in Cardinal games, and they're averaging 6.4 runs over that span (and giving up 5.6). Against lefty starters, the Cardinals are averaging 5 rpg, and the over is 21-12. Before pushing the total in their last two games, the Phillies had a streak of 10 straight overs. The Phillies' offensive numbers for the season haven't been good, but during this home stand their games are averaging 15.2 runs (scoring 7, allowing 8.2). It was way back in May, but when St. Louis faced Adam Morgan, they scored 3 runs in 4 innings against him. In 76 PAs, these Phillies have a .704 OPS against Wainwright.

Good info BOL tonight

[HeeluvaGuy]

We also have Bill Welke behind the plate tonight. The over is 15-4 in his games this season.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/19:



STL/PHI o9 -105

A collective 2 for 20 w/RISP and this is a loss.

4-6-2 (-1.88u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/20:



BOS/DET u9 +110

Detroit is struggling mightily to score runs right now. In the last 10 days, they have managed to score more than 4 runs twice, both in games at Texas. During this stretch the Tigers are averaging just 2.7 rpg. During that same period, the Red Sox are allowing an average of 3.4 rpg. Drew Pomeranz goes for the Sox today. The under is 16-7 in his starts (4-2 since coming to Boston). He struggled a bit right after the trade, but has given up just 5 runs in his last 3 starts (19 innings). Lefty Daniel Norris gets the start for Detroit. Norris has allowed just 3 runs (2 earned) in his 2 starts since coming off the DL. I worry a little about his walks, but Boston's offensive numbers are lower across the board against lefty starters. Both bullpens are in pretty good shape, and the weather today is calling for 15mph winds blowing in from right field. Today's ump has leaned slightly over this season (7-4), but has historically leaned under. The under is a collective 32-28 when these teams face lefty starters.

[doubledime]

8/20:



BOS/DET u9 +110

Detroit is struggling mightily to score runs right now. In the last 10 days, they have managed to score more than 4 runs twice, both in games at Texas. During this stretch the Tigers are averaging just 2.7 rpg. During that same period, the Red Sox an average of 3.4 rpg. Drew Pomeranz goes for the Sox today. The under is 16-7 in his starts (4-2 since coming to Boston). He struggled a bit right after the trade, but has given up just 5 runs in his last 3 starts (19 innings). Lefty Daniel Norris gets the start for Detroit. Norris has allowed just 3 runs (2 earned) in his 2 starts since coming off the DL. I worry a little about his walks, but Boston's offensive numbers are lower across the board against lefty starters. Both bullpens are in pretty good shape, and the weather today is calling for 15mph winds blowing in from right field. Today's ump has leaned slightly over this season (7-4), but has historically leaned under. The under is a collective 32-28 when these teams face lefty starters.

Once again great analysis. Good luck HG

[HeeluvaGuy]

Once again great analysis. Good luck HG

Thanks DD. I'm not exactly setting the world on fire right now, but I'll keep plugging along.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/20:



BOS/DET u9 +110

Red Sox win 3-2, which is a winner here.

5-6-3 (-.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/21:

Nationals -1.5 +100
The Nats have owned the Braves this season going 11-1, with an average margin of victory of 2.3 rpg. Washington has won 7 of those games by 2+ runs. Atlanta is 12-27 against lefty starters, losing those games by an average of 1.9 runs. The forecast is for a nice wind blowing out to right, which should complement the Nats' lefty hitters against de la Cruz, who is still seeking his first win despite some decent numbers. The Braves are also 18-43 at home this season, and the road team has a 1.5 rpg margin of victory in those games. In the FWIW category, the road team is 15-9 with today's ump behind the plate (1.4 MOV).

[doubledime]

8/21:

Nationals -1.5 +100
The Nats have owned the Braves this season going 11-1, with an average margin of victory of 2.3 rpg. Washington has won 7 of those games by 2+ runs. Atlanta is 12-27 against lefty starters, losing those games by an average of 1.9 runs. The forecast is for a nice wind blowing out to right, which should complement the Nats' lefty hitters against de la Cruz, who is still seeking his first win despite some decent numbers. The Braves are also 18-43 at home this season, and the road team has a 1.5 rpg margin of victory in those games. In the FWIW category, the road team is 15-9 with today's ump behind the plate (1.4 MOV).

BOL today and let's just hope it goes over too

[thekoreanmang]

Was on this. Felt good about it, too. But, damn. Braves, doe!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Was on this. Felt good about it, too. But, damn. Braves, doe!

Wheb Turner dropped the ball and let Markakis score from third in the 3rd inning I knew we were in trouble.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Taking the day off today. Not enough time to look things over.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/23:

ATL/ARI o9.5-105
Nothing fancy here. Just two teams who can't get anyone out. This month Bradley's games have totaled 17, 9, 12, and 15. Whalen's games have gone 10, 13, 7, and 12.

5-7-3 (-1.83u)

[doubledime]

8/23:

ATL/ARI o9.5-105
Nothing fancy here. Just two teams who can't get anyone out. This month Bradley's games have totaled 17, 9, 12, and 15. Whalen's games have gone 10, 13, 7, and 12.


5-7-3 (-1.83u)

Let's get this one!!