HeeluvaGuy's MLB/NCAAF/NFL/NCAAB/CFL and others picks

[HeeluvaGuy]

Been a busy week so I have had much time to post.

8/26:

Arizona tt o5 -105
Arizona is averaging 5.2 rpg against lefty starters, and they have the highest OPS against LHP in the league. The DBacks roughed Finnegan up for 6 runs in 5 innings a month ago. The official site says that the roof will be closed, but looking at the forecast the temps might be in tolerance for them to open it up tonight.

6-7-3 (-.83u)

[doubledime]

Been a busy week so I have had much time to post.

8/26:

Arizona tt o5 -105
Arizona is averaging 5.2 rpg against lefty starters, and they have the highest OPS against LHP in the league. The DBacks roughed Finnegan up for 6 runs in 5 innings a month ago. The official site says that the roof will be closed, but looking at the forecast the temps might be in tolerance for them to open it up tonight.

6-7-3 (-.83u)

Good luck to both of us!!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

^ Yes sir! And to follow up on two things:

1) The roof is scheduled to remain closed tonight.
2) AJ Pollock was activated about 15 minutes ago. He's batting 2nd between Segura and Goldy. Finnegan gave up 3 HRs last time out against the Snakes.

[HeeluvaGuy]

A quick word on some other leagues tonight:

College Football - I'd really like to have a play here, but there are so many question marks. The best angle I have is that I think Cal definitely, and Hawaii to a lesser extent maybe, will be able to run the ball at will. With all the new receivers and the new QB, the Bears may just come out and ram it down the Rainbows' throat. I was hoping for a prop for rushing yards or TDs, but haven't seen anything yet. Pass for me, unfortunately.

CFL - I really like Winnipeg, but just haven't had time to look closely at the game. So I don't have a play to post due to time constraints.

AFL - The Arena Bowl is tonight. Arizona is 3-0 SU/ATS against Philadelphia at home, and Arizona is firing on all cylinders right now, but the game tonight is being played in Glendale (where the Coyotes play) and not in downtown Phoenix (where the Suns play and where the Rattlers play their home games). I have no idea how that affects the game, so I have to lay off there too.

There's a lot going on, but just not enough time in the day to sort it all out.

[Mike Huntertz]

GL on the TT O5
I split my bet half on TT O 2.5 1st 5, and O5 game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

GL on the TT O5
I split my bet half on TT O 2.5 1st 5, and O5 game.

Good luck to us!

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/26:

Arizona tt o5 -105

Missed this one thanks to 12 Ks by Finnegan. Didn't see that coming.

6-8-3 (-1.88u)

[doubledime]

Missed this one thanks to 12 Ks by Finnegan. Didn't see that coming.

6-8-3 (-1.88u)

You and me both

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/29:

MIN/CLE o9 -105
The over is 6-2 when Cleveland returns home from a road trip. The Tribe averages 6.5 rpg in those games, and the totals in all 8 games are averaging an even 11 rpg. The over is 8-4-1 when these two play this season, and is 6-1 at Cleveland. Cleveland hitters have a .885 OPS against Santiago in 119 PAs, and the Twins hitters have a collective .756 OPS against Bauer in 155 PAs. Bauer and Santiago were each blasted the last time they faced tonight's opponent.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Two props for tonight (.5u each):

JJ Hardy no hits +175
Hardy has faced Estrada 12 times and has just 1 hit. In the last two weeks or so, he has 9 hits in 51 ABs with 12 Ks. Hardy is hitting just .087 in the last week (2 for 23). This season against Toronto, Hardy is 5 for 33 His BA at home is .248 compared to .269 on the road. Hardy is 8th in the lineup for tonight's game, so it's possible he only gets to the plate three times.

Y. Cespedes hits/runs/RBIs o 1.5 -105
I suspect this total is so low because Jose Fernandez is pitching for the Marlins. However, Fernandez isn't nearly as dominant on the road as he is at home. On the road hitters have a .252 average (compared to just .204 at home), and Fernandez's ERA is 4.42 (compared to 1.91 at home). Cespedes has just 6 PAs against Fernandez, but he has managed 2 hits, an RBI, and a walk against him. Cespedes has 17 hits (.370 BA) against the Marlins with 7 runs scored and 11 RBIs. Cespedes has gone over this number in 6 of his 8 games since coming back. In that time he has 12 hits, 6 runs scored, and 9 RBIs.

[doubledime]

Two props for tonight (.5u each):

JJ Hardy no hits +175
Hardy has faced Estrada 12 times and has just 1 hit. In the last two weeks or so, he has 9 hits in 51 ABs with 12 Ks. Hardy is hitting just .087 in the last week (2 for 23). This season against Toronto, Hardy is 5 for 33 His BA at home is .248 compared to .269 on the road. Hardy is 8th in the lineup for tonight's game, so it's possible he only gets to the plate three times.

Y. Cespedes hits/runs/RBIs o 1.5 -105
I suspect this total is so low because Jose Fernandez is pitching for the Marlins. However, Fernandez isn't nearly as dominant on the road as he is at home. On the road hitters have a .252 average (compared to just .204 at home), and Fernandez's ERA is 4.42 (compared to 1.91 at home). Cespedes has just 6 PAs against Fernandez, but he has managed 2 hits, an RBI, and a walk against him. Cespedes has 17 hits (.370 BA) against the Marlins with 7 runs scored and 11 RBIs. Cespedes has gone over this number in 6 of his 8 games since coming back. In that time he has 12 hits, 6 runs scored, and 9 RBIs.

Love those +175 doggies Good luck!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Love those +175 doggies Good luck!!

Thanks DD. We can always use some luck with these!

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/31:

LAD/COL o11 -110 (Game 1)
Here's why: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...s-coors-field/

7-9-3 (-1.93u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

To me, the first week of college sports can be really tough. There’s a lot of turnover, and we frequently see guys playing that we’ve never seen or, sometimes, never heard of. For that reason, I like to ease into the season. I have a model I use for college football, but I won’t be posting numbers from it until Week 4 or 5. Until then, it’s research and watching games.
I will frequently look at publications and compare my thoughts and numbers to them. I will try to post those when I can. I will also post what I see are possible problems with my plays. That’s part of the exercise.
For this week I will probably have 4 or fewer plays. Feel free to chime in (agree or disagree), but my suggestion is to take it easy until we see what we’re working with this season. My write-ups will get shorter as the season moves on. I promise.
9/1:
Louisville tt o48 -110
Louisville returns just about everyone on offense this season, and looks poised to roll in its home opener against C-USA Charlotte. Last season, Charlotte’s defense was #122 nationally in yards per point at 11.6 and allowed an average of 36.2 ppg against a weak schedule. This is just Charlotte’s second game ever against a P5 school, having lost to Kentucky last season 58-10. So all signs point to the 49ers playing this one from behind. If Louisville jumps out to the expected early lead, I like their chances to keep adding on points due to turnovers and Charlotte’s efforts to play fast (81.7 plays per game last season, #12). Last season Charlotte ranked #127 in turnovers, with 3 per game, including 2.1 INTs per game (#127). Louisville averaged 1.2 INTs on defense last season (#27), and returns 3 of 4 DBs, and all DBs who recorded an INT from last year’s squad. (PW 48, Massey 42, GS 55, Steele 49, Dunkel 51)

7-10-3 (-4.03u)

[doubledime]

Let's get it

[HeeluvaGuy]

9/1:
Louisville tt o48 -110

Good result. This one covered with 2:59 to go ... in the first half.

8-10-3 (-3.03u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

9/2:

Toledo/Arkansas St o64.5 -105
Let’s do this one by units …

Arkansas St. Offense - Last season Arkansas St scored 40 ppg (#12 nationally) and ranked #1 in offensive yards per point (one of my favorite stats), averaging 11 YPPT. The Red Wolves’ ran an average of 77.1 plays per game, which was tied for #30 in the country. The good news is that Arky St. returns its entire OL, which is something I look for in the early weeks. The bad news here is that Fredi Knighten is gone from last year’s team, and the Red Wolves have a new OC. Knighten is replaced by Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen and grad transfer (from Pitt) Chad Voytik. HC Blake Anderson has already announced that both guys will play this week, with Voytik named the starter. Voytik started 13 games for Pitt in 2014, completing 62% of his passes and throwing for 17 TDs to 8 INTs. Leading rusher Michael Gordon is gone, but Arky St. returns its #2 and #3 RBs from last year and adds JUCO Armond Weh-Weh, who rushed for 1229 yards (11 TDs) last season at Scottsdale Community College. The new OC, which isn’t exactly ideal for an over, is Buster Faulkner. He comes over from MTSU, who ran a similar tempo last season (77.1 plays per game also), while averaging 34 points per game. I like the OL continuity here, as well as the experienced QBs, which should help offset the turnover at RB and WR – where the Red Wolves add transfers from Texas and TCU.

Toledo Defense – One reason I’m not terribly concerned with some of the turnover on the Arkansas St. offense is the fact that the Toledo defense, which was 12^th nationally in YPPT last year, returns just 3 starters. In particular, the Rockets return just one starter from each level of the defense, so these guys will be getting to know each other against an uptempo offensive unit. There is also turnover with the coaches at Toledo. Specifically, they have a new DC in Brian George, who comes over from a Kent St. defense that allowed 26.1 ppg last season and 13.5 YPPT (#94).

Toledo Offense – You have to start here with Kareem Hunt. Hunt missed 4 games last season and still ran for 973 yards. (Terry Swanson was no slouch in Hunt’s absence. He ran for 931 yds in just 143 carries.) The Rockets return 4 of 5 starters from the OL that Hunt and Swanson ran behind last season. Toledo also returns 4 of its 5 top receivers from last season. There is change at the QB position, but projected starter Logan Woodside started 10 games in 2014 (2,263 yds, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) before Phillip Ely transferred in from ‘Bama last season for one year of duty. The Rockets have a new HC, but I don’t look for that to disrupt the offense much, as former OC Jason Candle is now at the helm. Toledo averaged 35 points and 75.5 plays per game last season.

Arkansas St. Defense – The Red Wolves’ defensive losses aren’t as dramatic as Toledo’s, but this is a unit that allowed 419.3 ypg last season (#41) playing in the Sun Belt. The LB core looks solid, but Arky St. loses 1^st team all-conference players on the DL and in the secondary. Arky St. looks to cause turnovers, but Toledo allowed just 1.2 turnovers per game last season (#21).

Recent meetings – Last season Toledo won this game 37-7 in a game where Arkansas St. had TOs (averaged 2.1 on the season). Knighten was injured for that game. Two years ago these two met in the GoDaddy Bowl and played to a score of 63-44. (Massey 69, Dunkel 70, Steele 65, PW 65, Powers 65, GS 72)

[doubledime]

Good result. This one covered with 2:59 to go ... in the first half.

8-10-3 (-3.03u)

Great start!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great start!!

That'll be a tough act to follow, no doubt.

[Mike Huntertz]

9/2:

Toledo/Arkansas St o64.5 -105
Let’s do this one by units …

Arkansas St. Offense - Last season Arkansas St scored 40 ppg (#12 nationally) and ranked #1 in offensive yards per point (one of my favorite stats), averaging 11 YPPT. The Red Wolves’ ran an average of 77.1 plays per game, which was tied for #30 in the country. The good news is that Arky St. returns its entire OL, which is something I look for in the early weeks. The bad news here is that Fredi Knighten is gone from last year’s team, and the Red Wolves have a new OC. Knighten is replaced by Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen and grad transfer (from Pitt) Chad Voytik. HC Blake Anderson has already announced that both guys will play this week, with Voytik named the starter. Voytik started 13 games for Pitt in 2014, completing 62% of his passes and throwing for 17 TDs to 8 INTs. Leading rusher Michael Gordon is gone, but Arky St. returns its #2 and #3 RBs from last year and adds JUCO Armond Weh-Weh, who rushed for 1229 yards (11 TDs) last season at Scottsdale Community College. The new OC, which isn’t exactly ideal for an over, is Buster Faulkner. He comes over from MTSU, who ran a similar tempo last season (77.1 plays per game also), while averaging 34 points per game. I like the OL continuity here, as well as the experienced QBs, which should help offset the turnover at RB and WR – where the Red Wolves add transfers from Texas and TCU.

Toledo Defense – One reason I’m not terribly concerned with some of the turnover on the Arkansas St. offense is the fact that the Toledo defense, which was 12^th nationally in YPPT last year, returns just 3 starters. In particular, the Rockets return just one starter from each level of the defense, so these guys will be getting to know each other against an uptempo offensive unit. There is also turnover with the coaches at Toledo. Specifically, they have a new DC in Brian George, who comes over from a Kent St. defense that allowed 26.1 ppg last season and 13.5 YPPT (#94).

Toledo Offense – You have to start here with Kareem Hunt. Hunt missed 4 games last season and still ran for 973 yards. (Terry Swanson was no slouch in Hunt’s absence. He ran for 931 yds in just 143 carries.) The Rockets return 4 of 5 starters from the OL that Hunt and Swanson ran behind last season. Toledo also returns 4 of its 5 top receivers from last season. There is change at the QB position, but projected starter Logan Woodside started 10 games in 2014 (2,263 yds, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) before Phillip Ely transferred in from ‘Bama last season for one year of duty. The Rockets have a new HC, but I don’t look for that to disrupt the offense much, as former OC Jason Candle is now at the helm. Toledo averaged 35 points and 75.5 plays per game last season.

Arkansas St. Defense – The Red Wolves’ defensive losses aren’t as dramatic as Toledo’s, but this is a unit that allowed 419.3 ypg last season (#41) playing in the Sun Belt. The LB core looks solid, but Arky St. loses 1^st team all-conference players on the DL and in the secondary. Arky St. looks to cause turnovers, but Toledo allowed just 1.2 turnovers per game last season (#21).

Recent meetings – Last season Toledo won this game 37-7 in a game where Arkansas St. had TOs (averaged 2.1 on the season). Knighten was injured for that game. Two years ago these two met in the GoDaddy Bowl and played to a score of 63-44. (Massey 69, Dunkel 70, Steele 65, PW 65, Powers 65, GS 72)

Great analysis , missed your 1st play..dang!
Let's get this one.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Great analysis , missed your 1st play..dang!
Let's get this one.

Thanks Mike. I actually had this one done earlier in the week, but I don't like to post until I play it myself.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9/2:

Toledo/Arkansas St o64.5 -105

Toledo did its part, but Arkansas St was nowhere to be found. Ended 31-10.

8-12-2 (-4.08u) - NOTE: I has an error somewhere in my record that I went back to my tracker and figured out. This is accurate now.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I only have one play for Saturday right now:

9/3:

Tulsa -5 -108
Probably not a game on many radars. If you look at last year’s stats and compare them, this game looks even. But what matters here is what SJSU loses this season. On the offensive side, the Spartans lose Tyler Ervin, who rushed for 1,661 yards last season. On the defensive side, they lose two starting CBs and a S (among a few others). In fact, SJSU will start a CB who hasn’t played since 2014 (injury and transfer). I highlight the losses in the defensive backfield because Tulsa loves to throw it all around the yard. And since this is the second year in this offense, and Dane Evans returns and is healthy this year (4,332 yds, 25 TDs, 8 INTs last year) I expect even better results from the Golden Hurricane offense. Joining him will be 2 of Tulsa’s top 3 RBs from last season and Keevan Evans at WR, who missed most of last season with an injury. Tulsa was the fastest team in college football last season at 86.3 plays per game. That tempo figures to wear on a San Jose team that will not be used to the warm and humid Tulsa night. Oh yeah, and SJSU is 20-44 SU on the road over the last 10 seasons and is 19-29-1 ATS as a road dog. During that span, Tulsa is 9-1 SU in home openers. Many publications and computers disagree with me here, but this is a Powers’ 3* and a Gold Sheet Key Release. (Massey -2, Dunkel -1, Playbook -3, PS -5, Steele -4)

[doubledime]

I like games under the radar. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

One more for today:

N. Carolina tt o27 -110
Georgia’s defense was stout last year, allowing just 16.9 ppg. However, they were somewhat susceptible on the ground, allowing 4 ypc (#40). UNC, meanwhile, ranked #3 in the nation in ypc at 6.0. Georgia returns everyone from the backside of its defense, but the front 7 loses 5 starters. UNC has one of the very best OLs in the country and ranks 2^nd in Phil Steele’s returning starts by that unit. The Tar Heels also return a ton of playmakers including top 2 RBs Elijah Hood and TJ Logan. I look for the run game to take some of the load off of Mitch Trubisky, who takes over at QB from Marquise Williams. And once the Bulldogs over commit to the run, Trubisky has a ton of weapons to throw it to. (Massey 28, Dunkel 27, Steele27, PW 24, Powers 27, GS 28)

[HeeluvaGuy]

I need to catch up on my record. Went 2-2 in NCAAF this weekend so dropped some juice. Will update after I get the numbers from my SS. When I try to do it manually I always screw up. Anyway, NFL season-long player prop:

P. Peterson o2.5 INTs -110 (Bovada)
The danger here is that PP doesn't get many opportunities. However, he could go over this number in the first half of the season. Take a look at who he faces in the first 6 games: NE (Garappolo), TB (Winston), @BUF (Taylor), LA (Keenun? Goff?), @SF (Gabbert), and NYJ (Fitzpatrick). Peterson has 3 or more INT in 3 of his first 5 seasons, so this is a number well within his range.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9/8:

NFL: T. Davis solo+assisted tackles o6.5 +125
Davis had 7 total tackles in the Super Bowl. Last season he went over this number in 10 of his 19 (52.6%) total games (9 of 16 regular season (56.2%)). With inexperience at QB, Denver will likely be run-heavy and lean on short passing routes tonight, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities Davis. With Denver's OL, Davis could also sneak in a sack.

[Mike Huntertz]

9/8:

NFL: T. Davis solo+assisted tackles o6.5 +125
Davis had 7 total tackles in the Super Bowl. Last season he went over this number in 10 of his 19 (52.6%) total games (9 of 16 regular season (56.2%)). With inexperience at QB, Denver will likely be run-heavy and lean on short passing routes tonight, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities Davis. With Denver's OL, Davis could also sneak in a sack.

Sounds good....I'll run with ya.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sounds good....I'll run with ya.

Did yours get scored as a win?

[Mike Huntertz]

Did yours get scored as a win?

Winner 5dimes +140