HeeluvaGuy's MLB/NCAAF/NFL/NCAAB/CFL and others picks

[HeeluvaGuy]

After 2+ years on this forum I've decided to start a thread to post my picks. I'm primarily a college sports guy, but I dabble in MLB, NFL, CFL, and AFL as well (almost zero NBA for me). During the dog days I have limited my plays to one MLB side or total per day, which is how I will start this thread. (I have an MLB player prop thread that I'll keep going separately for now. Props in other sports will be posted here, however.)

I have fairly basic models that I use to help with everything but MLB, but I am not a system player or a slave to the models. I write up nearly all of my plays, so anyone interested can follow my reasoning. I prefer logic over hunches, and you will never see me write that someone is "due." For baseball, the max I will pay for a side is -120. For totals I won't go higher than -110.

It seems like a lot of the trolling has died down on this board, and I have seen a number of threads with nice collaboration lately. My hope is that this thread will fall into the latter category.

Best of luck to us all! (First pick coming momentarily)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/8:

CIN/STL o9 +100 (up to +110 now or o8.5 -115)
For starters, these are two of the top five over teams in MLB this season. Collectively, the over is 116-89-16 when these two teams play this season. The Cards average 5 rpgs when a lefty starts, and the over is 18-11 in those games. Cody Reed starts for the Reds. He has given up 4+ runs in all but one of his starts. The outlier came against the Braves, who have hit lefties poorly most of the season. The Cards touched Reed up for 4 runs in the first inning when these teams played this matchup last week. The over is 6-1-1 in his starts, and is 15-6-1 in Wacha's starts. Forecast is for a decently warm night with not much wind. Both bullpens pitched a fair amount over the weekend.

0-0-0 (+0.0u)

[thekoreanmang]

Nice logical writeup. I was already on this bet as per this thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...sides-p27.html but it's good to know further reasoning behind the bet.

Good luck! I tried giving you betpoints but it wouldn't let me for some reason.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice logical writeup. I was already on this bet as per this thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...sides-p27.html but it's good to know further reasoning behind the bet.

Good luck! I tried giving you betpoints but it wouldn't let me for some reason.

Yep. I've been posting info in doubledime's thread on and off this season. I love his approach, but didn't want to clutter up his great thread.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/8:

CIN/STL o9 +100 (up to +110 now or o8.5 -115)

That was a long way to go for a push. If you had 8.5, congrats!

0-0-1 (+0.0u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/9:

Arizona +117

It's tough to find any spot to back the DBacks, but I'll take a shot here. Arizona is 7-0 in Greinke's road starts and 12-5 overall when he takes the mound. In three starts at Citi Field, Greinke has allowed just 5 runs in 19 innings. Despite being 21 games under .500, Arizona is a respectable 26-27 on the road and 14-15 against lefties. Arizona averages 5 runs per game against left handed starters, which is a good thing going up against a Mets team that struggles to score (3.7 rpg). The Mets are just 10-10 when Matz starts and are 4-6 when he starts at home. The DBacks' bullpen is always a concern, and there are question marks with Greinke returning from the DL, but I'll take those risks at +117.

[Jeff_Black]

Normally I'm a fan of backing Grienke as a dog in general, he's beaten Kershaw and Bumgarner in that spot but this time understandably has been on the DL since late June up until today.
not a fan of the way the mets pitchers or team in general has been going and not expecting their bats to go hot today, BOL

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/9:

Arizona +117

Snakes win 5-3.

1-0-1 (+1.17u)

[Manny0825]

Snakes win 5-3.

1-0-1 (+1.17u)

Good call.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Thanks Manny.

8/10:



Cleveland tt o4 +100

The Indians are averaging 5 runs per game this season, 4.8 against lefties, and 5.7 in interleague games. Over the last week they have averaged 5.4 rpg, and they are giving Josh Tomilin 5.2 runs per game to work with. Today Cleveland faces LHP Gio Gonzalez. The Nats are just 9-13 when Gonzalez starts, and opponents are averaging 4 runs per game when he takes the bump. Gonzalez is averaging under 6 IP at home this season, and the Nats' bullpen has pitched 4.1 innings last night Today's weather forecast is for 90+ degree temps with a stiff wind blowing out. Today's ump leans slightly under, but the road team is 14-7 when he's calling balls and strikes.

[keel44]

I like your style. I have a question on how you pick your games.

Do you like a game first and then find evidence to back it up or do suspect value in the line and dig for stats that will either be for or against your initial lean?

I like looking for regressions personally. Both long and short term.

I like the Indians here because of team and pitcher regressions, but I was hoping for more of a dog price today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I like your style. I have a question on how you pick your games.

Do you like a game first and then find evidence to back it up or do suspect value in the line and dig for stats that will either be for or against your initial lean?

I like looking for regressions personally. Both long and short term.

I like the Indians here because of team and pitcher regressions, but I was hoping for more of a dog price today.

Thanks keel.

I'm not as systematic in baseball as I am with other sports. I tend to look for something unique about a game and then dig deeper to see if there is a play to be made. For example, last week I posted a play on the Nats in doubledime's thread. It was based on the fact that Arizona has lost the first home game after every road rip this season. 6 of the 7 losses were by 2+ runs. After looking more, there were other factors supporting a RL play, and the Nats ended up winning 14-1. (Wish they were all that easy.)

In other sports I have models that I use to generate lines that I'll compare to the actual lines. I'll then look to see if I can support any differences with additional research, etc. But for baseball it's really just research looking for a unique situation, matchup, etc. and then determining if there's a play to be made.

I don't always write out all of the factors I look at, and I always recognize that there may be other sides to the coin. In baseball I tend to look for trends to follow more than I look for regression, but that's just my philosophy for this particular sport.

Hope that answers your question, and good luck!

[keel44]

I appreciate your response. When I look at regressions, I am talking about under/over value in the lines.

Like the Reds lately have been under valued because of their horrible 1st half. Same with the Twins and Braves. They are regressing towards a more respectable performance.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/10:



Cleveland tt o4 +100

Four runs through three innings but that was it.

1-0-2 (+1.17u)

[Manny0825]

Four runs through three innings but that was it.

1-0-2 (+1.17u)

Better than a loss. It was a good play.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/11:

SDP/PIT o8.5 +100
These two teams are the #5 and #8 over teams in MLB with a collective over record of 122-99-3. The over is 37-21 in Pittsburgh's home games, and 12 of the Pirates day home games have gone over 8 runs. The over is 16-8 when these pitchers start. These two are averaging 9 runs per game when they play this season with a 4-1 over record. The over is 14-8 when Pittsburgh faces lefty starters, and they're averaging 5.6 runs in those games. The Padres' games are averaging 10 rpg over the past week.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Better than a loss. It was a good play.

Yeah. I figured that was some kind of cosmic payback for sucking out the push in the St. Louis game a few nights ago.

[doubledime]

8/11:

SDP/PIT o8.5 +100
These two teams are the #5 and #8 over teams in MLB with a collective over record of 122-99-3. The over is 37-21 in Pittsburgh's home games, and 12 of the Pirates day home games have gone over 8 runs. The over is 16-8 when these pitchers start. These two are averaging 9 runs per game when they play this season with a 4-1 over record. The over is 14-8 when Pittsburgh faces lefty starters, and they're averaging 5.6 runs in those games. The Padres' games are averaging 10 rpg over the past week.

I like your reasons and I really like that you approach a game from different reasons than me. Thanks for the info.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/11:

SDP/PIT o8.5 +100

Didnt get this one as it ended 0-4.

1-1-2 (+.17u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/12:

Preseason NFL - Arizona -3 +105
Unlike most of my plays, I don't have a lot of numbers to back this one up. Instead, this is a situational play. Arizona has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. There will likely be some players cut from this roster who find their way making significant contributions for other teams. So while there aren't a lot of battles for starting spots, there is a lot of competition for the 2-deep, STs, etc. One of those spots is at QB. Barring injury, it's 99% certain that Drew Stanton will be the Cards' #2 QB. More than likely, they won't roster a 3rd QB to start the season. So there is an open competition between Matt Barkley and Jake Coker to make the practice squad (and possibly the #3QB). Barkley will play most of the game after Palmer and Stanton get some plays in. On the other side, it looks like rookie Connor Cook will see a majority of time for Oakland. Even facing the Cardinals' 3rd team defense, Cook will have his work cut out for him. An added angle: Phoenix was hoping to be in he midst of a pennant chase right now. That ship sailed in May (or earlier). I look for the Cardinals' to seize on the opportunity to capture all of the city's sports attention with a quick start tonight against the Raiders.

[doubledime]

I'm not a big preseason guy, but I like your thought process. Go AZ!

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/12:

Preseason NFL - Arizona -3 +105

Ugly loss. It happens.

1-2-2 (-.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/13:



Pirates +129

This is Gerrit Cole versus Brandon McCarthy. These Dodger hitters have collectively hit just .159 against Cole in 49 plate appearances. Cole is coming off a rough start against Cincinnati, but McCarthy is coming off of consecutive 5-walk outings where he lasted less than 4 innings. In fact, he has pitched 4 or fewer innings in his last three starts, and the Dodgers are just 1-4 in hist post All-Star starts. Pirate hitters are collectively hitting .314 against McCarthy in 53 plate appearances. The Dodgers are good at home, and have been particularly good in day games (20-10), but the Pirates have had their number the last two seasons. The Pirates are 4-1 against LA this season and 9-2 over the past two. Pittsburgh also has a 18-10 record against the NL West this season. Gerrit Cole is from Newport Beach and is 2-0 at Chavez Ravine.

[doubledime]

Good luck today

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good luck today

Thanks. I may have a second play today on the Arena game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/13:



Pirates +129
.

Everything with the Dodgers' way, and the Pirates tied a franchise record for stranded runners at 18. Loss.

1-3-2 (-1.83u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/13:

Arena Football: Arizona -20 -110
This is the National Conference Finals for the Arena Football League. When these two teams played three weeks ago, the Rattlers won 68-20 for the franchise's largest margin of victory ever. During last week's conference semi-finals, Arizona set a home franchise record for points scored in an 84-40 win over Portland. As far as I can tell, Arizona has never lost to Cleveland (SU or ATS) - but sometimes Arena records are hard to track. Arizona leads the AFL in turnover margin at +17, while Cleveland is third to last, and last of the remaining teams, at -9. Remarkably, Cleveland is playing its 8th straight road game. Since playing at home on June 3, the Gladiators have played at Orlando, Portland, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA, Arizona, and LA (in San Diego). I have Arizona winning by 30+ points, but 21 will do.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/13:

Arena Football: Arizona -20 -110

41-point win by the Rattlers.

2-3-2 (-.83u)

[thekoreanmang]

Tailed the AFL play for small. Would love to see more. Lines are prob not as sharp for this sport. Good job!

[doubledime]

8/13:

Arena Football: Arizona -20 -110
This is the National Conference Finals for the Arena Football League. When these two teams played three weeks ago, the Rattlers won 68-20 for the franchise's largest margin of victory ever. During last week's conference semi-finals, Arizona set a home franchise record for points scored in an 84-40 win over Portland. As far as I can tell, Arizona has never lost to Cleveland (SU or ATS) - but sometimes Arena records are hard to track. Arizona leads the AFL in turnover margin at +17, while Cleveland is third to last, and last of the remaining teams, at -9. Remarkably, Cleveland is playing its 8th straight road game. Since playing at home on June 3, the Gladiators have played at Orlando, Portland, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, LA, Arizona, and LA (in San Diego). I have Arizona winning by 30+ points, but 21 will do.

Wow nice hit!!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Tailed the AFL play for small. Would love to see more. Lines are prob not as sharp for this sport. Good job!

Glad you got in on a winner. If only they were all that easy. It's a spot play league for me. The travel thing is one of my favorite angles. These guys are on an Arena League budget, and the scheduling can get weird sometimes. West Coast teams really struggle ATS when they go East, for example. Don't think I'll play the game today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Wow nice hit!!

Thanks DD. I needed an easy one.

[thekoreanmang]

Ah, okay. I know jack about AFL but your reasoning makes sense. These guys make like minimum $800 a game or something like that.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8/14:

Detroit tt o4.5 -105

AJ Griffin gets the start today for Texas in Arlington. Forecast is for temps near 90 degrees and 10+mph winds out to right field. Griffin has given up 12 runs in 12.1 innings pitched against the Tigers in his career. He is a flyball pitcher with a GO/AO ratio of .53 this season (.60 career). Over 65% of the balls hit against Griffin are in the air (either flyballs or line drives), and he has a HR/9 of 1.6. Griffin hasn't pitched 6+ innings since May, and the Rangers' bullpen has an ERA of 4.75 (5.46 at home). The over is 5-0 when Griffin pitches at home, and the over is 16-6 with today's ump behind the plate.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Ah, okay. I know jack about AFL but your reasoning makes sense. These guys make like minimum $800 a game or something like that.

Exactly. Check out Portland's season as an extreme example. They went 5-10 ATS (not counting pushes). They were 4-2 at home, but 1-8 on the road. They also had a stretch where they played 7 straight road games. They went -16 during that stretch (in red below).

		Results
Date	Opponent	Line	OU	Score	SU	ATS
8/6/2016	at ARIZONA	26.5	111	40-84	L	L
8/1/2016	vs LA KISS	3.5	93.5	48-46	W	W
7/23/2016	at TAMPA BAY	-3	96.5	40-41	L	L
7/16/2016	vs JACKSONVILLE	12.5	101	55-53	W	W
7/9/2016	vs ORLANDO	10.5	103.5	41-47	L	W
6/27/2016	vs PHILADELPHIA	21	109	38-59	L	P
6/18/2016	vs CLEVELAND	8	108.5	49-58	L	L
6/11/2016	at ARIZONA	27	112	49-76	L	P
6/3/2016	vs TAMPA BAY	6.5	99.5	68-35	W	W
5/28/2016	at LA KISS	11.5	96.5	42-54	L	L
5/21/2016	at JACKSONVILLE	15	106.5	34-65	L	L
5/16/2016	at CLEVELAND	6.5	97	48-55	L	L
5/9/2016	at LA KISS	8.5	93	27-66	L	L
4/30/2016	at ARIZONA	33	109	21-68	L	L
4/17/2016	at PHILADELPHIA	16	105	32-70	L	L
4/9/2016	at ORLANDO	24	103.5	50-53	L	W
4/1/2016	vs ARIZONA	17	106.5	28-80	L	L