CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Wednesday 4/29/09

[cocknocker]

Here's what I'm smokin' on for today:

Pittsburgh+170 Gallardo is not worth the price tag
Pittsburgh+260 RRL Since Gallardo hasn't earned the price tag
Florida+160 Why not? 2 in a row boys
Cincinnati-1.5 +150 HEAVY Volquez has a correction
Pale Hose +105 HEAVY Crumbs Play of the Day (Gavin Floyd should not be a home dog)

[FrozenMAN]

u cant pass up on jj at +160 dude, i already lawked mine in once today ended. GO FISH

[jellobiafra]

Cool. I was having a real tough time committing to anything for tomorrow. But you called the only 3 I had an instinct towards - PIT, FLA, and CWS. CWS was probably the only one I'd have had the balls to play of my own volition. Didn't see the CIN angle to be honest, but dude.... you are hot and I'm gonna roll with. Hedging the Natti with a M/L backer, and I'm playing the other 3 dogs just straight M/L. Then I'm playing whatever Pair of 5s puts up.


Ahhh.... that was easy. Thanks CK.

[dfinn21]

CK at Betus the line on Pittsburgh has gone from +170 to +190 in the past 20 minutes. I agree 100% with you that Gallardo is not worth the price and this is a great value play. My question is should I lock it in now at +190 or do you think the line will continue to improve?

Just put them in...decided not to wait. Got Pitt at +190 and Florida at +175. Incredible value with both of these lines.

[Rellik]

CK, Main Event Mafia is rolling with you.!!!!!

Thanks for the picks.

Let's bring some cash in..!!!!!!!!!

[sweetjones55]

Four team Parlay with Pirates ML, Marlins ML, Reds ML, White Sox ML. Why not?

Risking 3.89 To Win 100.07 USD

[monkey107]

Sorry, whats pale hose?

[cnleaf]

Sorry, whats pale hose?

chicago white sox

[head_strong]

The reason why the Pittsburgh line is so high is because the Pirates simply can't beat the Brewers.....they have lost 14 straight to the Brewers and the last 17 contest in Milwaukee. But you know what they say, streaks are made to be broken so gl with your play.

[tbill11]

Indians and Tigers are both home dogs with two good pitchers on the hill (Carmona and Porcello). Maybe bet both and one is bound to win?

[Rizzla]

rrl ?

[wangichu]

feeling you on josh johnson at +175 as well as gavin floyd to hold serve at home (he's on an every other trend lately).

FLA ML
CHW ML

also fading joba chamberlain again. He's not right and porcello is. RLM making it look lik the tigers take 2 of 3 here

DET ML

[DetroitRob]

first time poster, long time viewer to your threads ck. Good luck today I will be tailing.

[repski]

Early Leans....RLM

LAD have gone down to +131 despite 67% on Lincecum and the Giants..
TOR down to +134 from +157 despite 63% on Greinke and the Royals
HOU down to +131 from +153 despite 77% on Volquez and the REDS...Houston owns the REDS
SD down to +135...63% on COL
and since when is Myers a -175 pitcher?? I may layoff because the Phils bats are so hot...

[Chi_archie]

as a pirate fan I hope the buccos finally snap this nasty streak, but Ian Snell is not the guy right now I'd want to have be on the mound to do it, hopefully the bucs can get their bats going and outslug the brew crew. Gallarado when he is on can be downright nasty

[OperatorX]

good call last night on the fish CK, was tailing you and TA.. well done to you both

[Savage0765]

rrl ?

reverse run line

[pho3nix32]

thanks for the marlins play yesterday CK!

[gracie17]

That White Sox game scares me. Gavin Floyd is 1-2 with a 9.88 era against them. They are not hitting right now either.
Anyone see any value with the Blue Jays? Greinke can't be this good forever. He is 1-3 with a 5.40 era against the BJ's and they are throwing a lefty up there who has been pretty good on 1 of the better teams in the league right now. I see some really good value there.

[Jshap1515]

As dumb as this might seem, I dont put my money against Johan. He was edged last time but even more reason for the Mets bats to hit Johnson.

[IfDntmk$itDntmkc]

CK. Rolling with you while I can. I don't even question at this point. I am just programmed to follow our leader. GL

[laxdjock]

I can't pick against Johan.

[cocknocker]

The Pirates will end the streak against the Brew Crew today. Snell is not that good, but he is serviceable enough to get them through the early innings. Gallardo can be roughed up a bit too. I just don't see him as being worth the price today (-209). Milwaukee is not a free chicken dinner team this year. They have underacheived by volumes.

After being swept yesterday by the Mariners, the Pale Hose are poised to blast the Mariners and Erk Bedard out of the park today. I am still having a hard time believing that Gavin Floyd is a home dog. I mean I know that the Seattle ball club is good, but that's going too far.

As far as Florida is concerned, their losing streak was very long, and now they can put two wins together against the Mets who are sending out Santana today in what looks to be a game that is too easy to take the Metropolitans. I think that Johnson can match him pitch for pitch. I'll take my chances and fade the long chalk as usual.

I just took the Reds-1.5 +150 (I changed the big board to reflect that). Teams that get blown out by double digits at home tend to play over their heads the following day. And what better scenario for that to happen thatn with Volquez who is showin g a few signs in his velocity to be headed toward a correction. Paulino is throwing pretty good for a youngster, but the problem is that this is just a bad spot for the Astros, and they may get blown out in a rout. Volquez was the ultimate streak stopper for the Big Red Machine last year. I expect that he will return to that form today when his team needs him the most. I see a little reduction in his juice these days, which suits me fine. I will be riding him until it goes back up.

[cocknocker]

That White Sox game scares me. Gavin Floyd is 1-2 with a 9.88 era against them. They are not hitting right now either.
Anyone see any value with the Blue Jays? Greinke can't be this good forever. He is 1-3 with a 5.40 era against the BJ's and they are throwing a lefty up there who has been pretty good on 1 of the better teams in the league right now. I see some really good value there.

The Blue Jays are having some reverse line movement work against them. They also blew the Royals away last night. I mean Greinke is lights out right now. May want to take the Royals first half and get the coin early. This game is definitely a good opportunity for a first half with the Royals

[cocknocker]

I don't blame guys for not being able to go against Johan Santana. The way that I wager on baseball is not for the faint of heart. I routinely go against the big name starters. I just pick my spots and go against them when the situation calls for it. Florida needs some wins, they are viewed by the public as being wounded (Ramirez) and this situation is worth a shot. Johnson can obviously shut down the Mets lineup and Santana obviously can shut down the Marlins lineup. It's gonna come down to who can make the least amount of fielding mistakes or which team can manufacture runs. I expect a high scoring game this time as te hitters can make a few adjustements from the last time these two faced off on April 12. Alls that we need is one more home run than the Mets. And believe me, Johan gives up gopher balls

[hockeytown71]

What about Yanks/Tigers Under in the 1st 5. Porcello is a solid pitcher and for the beginning of the season most teams haven't "really" seen him yet. Take that and add in Joba, I'm thinking Under 1st 5 only (for obvious reasons/Tiger pen). CK your thoughts? My 1st 5 lines are not out yet for this game however.

[gracie17]

Thanks CK for the insight on the Royals game.
The Mariners didn't sweep the White Sox yesterday. The Pale Hose won the 1st game even though they only had 2 hits.

[TheLemonDropKid]

The Pirates will end the streak against the Brew Crew today. Snell is not that good, but he is serviceable enough to get them through the early innings. Gallardo can be roughed up a bit too. I just don't see him as being worth the price today (-209). Milwaukee is not a free chicken dinner team this year. They have underacheived by volumes.

After being swept yesterday by the Mariners, the Pale Hose are poised to blast the Mariners and Erk Bedard out of the park today. I am still having a hard time believing that Gavin Floyd is a home dog. I mean I know that the Seattle ball club is good, but that's going too far.

As far as Florida is concerned, their losing streak was very long, and now they can put two wins together against the Mets who are sending out Santana today in what looks to be a game that is too easy to take the Metropolitans. I think that Johnson can match him pitch for pitch. I'll take my chances and fade the long chalk as usual.

I just took the Reds-1.5 +150 (I changed the big board to reflect that). Teams that get blown out by double digits at home tend to play over their heads the following day. And what better scenario for that to happen thatn with Volquez who is showin g a few signs in his velocity to be headed toward a correction. Paulino is throwing pretty good for a youngster, but the problem is that this is just a bad spot for the Astros, and they may get blown out in a rout. Volquez was the ultimate streak stopper for the Big Red Machine last year. I expect that he will return to that form today when his team needs him the most. I see a little reduction in his juice these days, which suits me fine. I will be riding him until it goes back up.

Hey bro.....I'm not sure if it has any bearing on your pick, but the Pale Hose didn't get swept yesterday....they split the header.

[BmoreBucco]

Prop of the Day:

Nothing I'd like more than to see Snell throw a complete game shutout, but it probably ain't gonna happen. I'm thinking the scrappy Bucs without the big boys will put together a couple big innings, so:

Bucs/Brew Crew over 27 runs/hits/errors -115

I like the O's to jump all over the Angels today. The Japanese pitcher is pretty darn good.

O's -1.5 +125

Also small parlay

Bucs +187
Marlins +160

[Sweatyguido]

havent been on in a while, got my ass kicked in NBA -$3900 after having a profit of +$4000 in NFL, so now im left w/ a measly $100 and im putting half of it on a moneyline parlay Chicago and Cincinatti @ 2.67 to 1 ($50 to win $133.74) its either closer to the end for me, or a new begining. and even if i lose, refunding the 'ol account is only a mouseclick away!
Also since last time i was on, i was reading about playing bets on a run scoring in the first inning, is anyone still playing these, and was their any success from it?

[gracie17]

Hey Ck, also I see alot of value in the Dbacks today. I am a huge Cubs fan, but they suck against soft lefty's and especially Doug Davis. Also, Dempster is terrible against the Dbacks, 1-4 6.07 era in 10 starts, and he is not going to match what he did last year. The Cubs are bringing back a couple of injured starters in Derrek Lee and Milton Bradley so that could take a couple of games to get them going. The Dbacks are playing well right now too.

[SportsChic]

Im going with the Bucs, White Sox, and Mets today so far..gl boys!

[peterpan19]

I have to agree with ck on Florida and Pit... and even CWS look good...

anyway only two later plays for me:
KC -1 (-101)
Det +132

GL

[laxdjock]

CK.....love the picks (except FL, as it is a no play for me).

For anyone who wants an +EV parlay (at least the way I capped it), look at PIT ML & KC 1st 5. I really really like KC 1st 5, and I think the PIT ML offers the best chance to maximize it.

[Whiplash]

Woo, and Cantu with the dinger!! 2-0 fish in 1st inning =)