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I should have said something earlier. I don't often make multiple plays in the same game. Can't complain about hitting the game over so easily though.Comment -
Thanks for another great day with the reliever plays DD! If you're thinking about shutting it down, I think you should wait until you have at least 3-4 consecutive losing days rather than just 2!
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True thatComment -
Good morning,
Yesterday
Regular Plays: No Plays
YTD: 118-78 +27.60 units
Reliever Plays: 5-1
YTD 346-247
Back later with today's card
Good luckComment -
Good morning,
Today we have 10 Reliever Plays, the most we have ever had. I tried adding filters to eliminate some and the best I could do was to drop only one play. Remember, these plays ONLY take into account the work/rest/ERA of the bullpen, along with the starting pitcher's average pitch count. Weather, umpire, starters ERA etc. are NOT figured in to the play. My advice is to look at some of those factors before you blindly play so many plays.
The Reliever Plays for Tuesday:
Card/Pit over 8.5
NYM/Reds over 9
Phils/Mia over 8
Cubs/Milw over 9
AZ/LAD over 8
Hou/Clev over 7.5
Det/WS over 9.5
KC/Min over 9
LAA/Oak over 8.5
TX/Sea over 8
Good luckLast edited by doubledime; 09-06-16, 10:45 AM.Comment -
The Reliever Plays for Tuesday with ump info. Feel free to correct any mistakes. Got the O/U records from Covers (http://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageloader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/umpires.html%20).
For noobs, the numbers next to each ump represents how many times the ump called a game going over or under the total for the game with the first number representing OVERS and the second number representing UNDERS. The numbers in the parentheses represent the over-under record for the number that doubledime has listed.
I bolded the games that seemed favorable to our proposed outcome.
I took a quick look at the weather and while I did see some games with wind blowing in/out at certain speeds, I wasn't sure how fast wind should be blowing to make an impact on the game. If anyone can add a layer of weather info to the below that'd be awesome.
Card/Pit over 8.5 - Tim Timmons 15-11 (6-0)
NYM/Reds over 9 - Nic Lentz 10-11 (0-1)
Phils/Mia over 8 - Lance Barrett 11-11 (1-2)
Cubs/Milw over 9 - Will Little 10-11 (0-2)
AZ/LAD over 8 - Doug Eddings 12-7 (1-2)
Hou/Clev over 7.5 - James Hoye 11-6 (1-0 @ 7.5; 2-3 @ 8.5) --> Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5
Det/WS over 9.5 - Tom Hallion 9-14 (0-2)
KC/Min over 9 - Chris Segal 2-1 (0-1)
LAA/Oak over 8.5 - Ryan Blakney 12-17 (3-4)
TX/Sea over 8 - Bob Davidson 12-10 (2-1)
Last edited by thekoreanmang; 09-06-16, 02:48 PM.Comment -
First of all, thanks for your input. Always appreciate it.
To drill down even further on umps go to covers and go to MLB and drop down to "scores and matchups" then you'll see a section called trends and if you click that you'll scroll down to the umpire section. Much more detailed.
Best place for weather: http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.plComment -
Awesome! Thanks for that! The more you know. I'm still a noob, as well, it seems.
DD, would be nice to know which of the reliever plays you decide to play personally. If you don't have time to, no worries. Thanks for all the great info!Last edited by thekoreanmang; 09-06-16, 03:10 PM.Comment -
Lately I have been pressed for time, at least during the week. I really don't have time to devote to looking at all the factors that I normally would look at. That's one of the reasons I do not have my Regular Plays any more. Normally I would never play this many games in a day, but everyone has to decide for themselves how much per game and how many games, if any, they want to play. DDComment -
Good morning,
Yesterday
Regular Plays: No Plays
YTD: 118-78 +27.60 units
Reliever Plays: 4-6
YTD 350-253
Back later with today's card
Good luckLast edited by doubledime; 09-07-16, 10:36 AM.Comment -
Good morning,
The Reliever Plays for Wednesday:
Mets/Reds over 8
Cards/Pit over 8
Atl/Was over 8
Phils/Mia over 8
Balt/TB over 7.5
LAA/Oak over 8.5
Hou/Clev over 8.5
KC/Min over 8.5
TX/Seat over 8.5
Good luckComment -
The Reliever Plays for Wednesday with ump info. More detailed ump info here (http://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchups). Just click on trends for each game. Just wanted to include general ump info for O/U. First number is over and second is for under next to each umps names. Record in parentheses is the O/U record at the actual number doubledime provided.
Based on yesterday's plays and looking at the ump info, I went 2-1. The loss was from a play that I bet blindly without looking at ump info. The two wins were from an over and under play after considering ump info. I'm considering playing the bolded plays below: 1 over and 3 unders.
Mets/Reds over 8 - Mark Ripperger 12-14 (4-3) - OVER WON
Cards/Pit over 8 - Chris Conroy 13-12 (4-1) - Over? - UNDER WON
Atl/Was over 8 - Rob Drake 9-14 (3-3) - Under? - OVER WON
Phils/Mia over 8 - Pat Hoberg 13-15 (2-1) - UNDER WON
Balt/TB over 7.5 - Fieldin Culbreth 10-12 (2-1) - What a name though! - OVER WON
LAA/Oak over 8.5 - DJ Reyburn 10-13 (2-6) - Under? - UNDER WON
Hou/Clev over 8.5 - Marvin Hudson 11-13 (3-3) - OVER WON
KC/Min over 8.5 - Lance Barksdale 10-16 (2-4) - Under? - OVER WON
TX/Seat over 8.5 - Mike Muchlinkski 13-12 (3-1) - OVER WON
6-3!Last edited by thekoreanmang; 09-07-16, 11:47 PM.Comment -
Fellas, we're gonna need a filter for moronic baserunning next year. The Reds have 3 caught stealing already and it's just the 4th inning. Should have had bases loaded with 0 and 1 out the last two innings but pissed it all away.Comment -
Well we finally got there, but not until the Reds had 15 base runners and zero runs. That was crazy. I believe the record is 19 base runners in a shutout. They had a runner on in every inning but only scored 3 runs.Comment -
Good morning,
Yesterday
Regular Plays: No Plays
YTD: 118-78 +27.60 units
Reliever Plays: 6-3
YTD 356-256
Back later with today's card
Good luckComment -
Good morning
The Reliever Plays for Thursday:
Phils/Wash over 8.5
Reds/Pit over 8
Hou/Clev over 8
TB/NYY over 8.5
TX/Sea over 8.5
Good luckComment -
Good morning,
Last night we achieved what I never thought possible by using just one angle in handicapping, we have 100 more wins than losses over 612 games. (58.17%) I only wish I would have discovered this 40 years ago.
DDComment -
Points Awarded:
Thank you
TechnicalTrader gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
juicername gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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Awesome and congrats. Funny thing is, this angle wouldn't have worked until relatively recently. 40 years ago, starting pitchers actually pitched!
On a side note, I do think there is some potential risk here with expanded rosters. Last night, for example, the Dodgers used 4 different pitchers against 4 consecutive Arizona batters. I could see this situation becoming more common for teams in tight playoff races. Just a thought.Comment -
Good points. "Back in the day" starters would go 8 or 9 unless they got rocked early. Those were the days when you capped a game based almost solely on the starter.
TT brought the expanded roster up earlier. Also a good point. On the other side of the coin, some managers (like the Cubs) are not going to use their ace relievers as much so they are rested for the playoffs. It's certainly something to keep in mind, however.Comment -
That ones easy, TB/NYY! Actually, looking closer I'm surprised it's not a play now. Guess one reason is Sabathia's capability to throw a lot of pitches?
EDIT: Lol that is a play ... Only two games to choose from then, I'm gonna go with MIL/STL.
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So has anyone been playing (or tracking) the 2H's in Bookmaker with DD's reliever plays??? I only played a few myself, but I'm dying to know how they've done -- I mean they must be crushing at either the same or a better percentage, right, how could they not?! Anyone?Comment
