New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

Horrendous day for the PT picks yesterday
PT45 1-10
PT60 2-9

Overall since AllStar break with no filters:
FB30 229-188
BB30 76-56 (went 1-6 yesterday)
FB99 231-194
PT45 189-141
PT60 179-127
Home PT60 138-94
Home PT60+PT45 123-84

Nothing running above .6 win% at this point....a bit disappointing....
Lots of season left though so we'll see how it finishes up.

Butto, I dont have the slightest idea as to what your doing with the PT system.
If you used 30 days and went with all the plays no matter what the ML was, then you would have gone 5-2, picking up 2.1 units. This is the way the PT system should be used and you would have a nice winning day. LAD, ARI, CLE, DET, NYY, BOS and SEA were all the plays.

As far as BB that went 4-2 and you would have made 1.1 units.

[peterpan19]

today we have
NYY and MIN

GL

[ButtoMcFarty]

Butto, I dont have the slightest idea as to what your doing with the PT system.
If you used 30 days and went with all the plays no matter what the ML was, then you would have gone 5-2, picking up 2.1 units. This is the way the PT system should be used and you would have a nice winning day. LAD, ARI, CLE, DET, NYY, BOS and SEA were all the plays.

As far as BB that went 4-2 and you would have made 1.1 units.

Those are the plays you have for 8/27?
I went and ran PT(30Day) for 8/27...
I got:

FLA
CIN
STL
COL
PHI
SF
NYY
CLE
BOS
SEA
AA

for 8/26:
PHI
FLA
STL
COL
SF
CLE
NYY
BOS
MIN
SEA

These picks are from the Pythagorem Theorem System on the FB software.

Obviously there is a difference.

[ButtoMcFarty]

Every day I download the fb-pitch.dat and fastball.dat file from the sportrends website.

Then I overwrite the previous day's data files with the new ones and run the FB software.

Am I doing something incorrect?

[Formulawiz]

Every day I download the fb-pitch.dat and fastball.dat file from the sportrends website.

Then I overwrite the previous day's data files with the new ones and run the FB software.

Am I doing something incorrect?

Little mix up I was talking about yesterday's records. Also are you using the filters in place. There seems to be too many plays. I think you need to go back and check, most of those games are dropped out.

[Joe Dogs]

Does anyone have the best bet number's for unit's won with this system.

[Formulawiz]

Every day I download the fb-pitch.dat and fastball.dat file from the sportrends website.

Then I overwrite the previous day's data files with the new ones and run the FB software.

Am I doing something incorrect?

Butto without flters did you get 8-1 PT and 3-0 BB yesterday

[Formulawiz]

Does anyone have the best bet number's for unit's won with this system.

Joe, BB is the only system I have kept a record of since May 15.
Win/Loss record YTD is 150-99, 60.24%, +28.95 Units and ROI 8.02

I have the record also on a monthly bases.

May- 23-11, 67.65%, +4.25 units
June- 34-27, 55.74%, +3.25 units
July- 49-29, 62.82%, +15.8 units
Aug- 44-32, 57.9%, -0.05 units
Aug is always a tough month with the ML's so high and we have no idea of team strategies. Sometimes they lose to certain teams so they dont have to face teams they don't match up well with.
Thats the story

[peterpan19]

todays plays
PHI and SF

[Joe Dogs]

[quote=Formulawiz;2173320]Joe, BB is the only system I have kept a record of since May 15.
Win/Loss record YTD is 150-99, 60.24%, +28.95 Units


Thanks Formulawiz

+28.95 units


Definitely going to look into fastball package next your.

[ButtoMcFarty]

Butto without flters did you get 8-1 PT and 3-0 BB yesterday

That matches exactly to my results.

I'm not using any filters on the #s I've been posting. I'm simply tracking the raw output of the software.

Obviously if there was real $$ involved I wouldn't be playing all the sw picks.
Blind faith is a fool's game imho.

Every day I fill in an excel sheet with the day's picks using different day settings.
To my mind....theoretically....the more past data included the more accurate the picks should be....
Theory ain't reality though.

You said the PT module of the software is designed to be used with 30 days as the data. I didn't read that anywhere in the docs. I've been tracking various day settings....as the sw allows that setting to be changed. If the PT module is only meant to be used with 30 days worth of data I would think the option to change wouldn't be available.

Regardless....yesterday's results match....so I have to believe we are both using the sw properly.

Haven't finished running through today's picks.....we're getting into playoff drive time....some teams have a reason to play...some have packed it in....I'm hoping to see that reflected in the sw's performance down the stretch.

I don't think I would pick anyone against STL right now.....they got it going on right now.

Have a good day all.
Good luck!

[ButtoMcFarty]

Here's what I've got after updating yesterday's games.

All #s are from All Star Break and have no filters:

FB30 243-196
BB30 83-58
FB99 245-206
PT45 204-146 (9-2 yesterday)
PT60 195-134 (10-3 yesterday)

HomePT30 151-99 (7-3 yesterday)
HomePT30 & PT45 136-88 (7-2 yesterday)

Have a good day all.
Good luck!

[Formulawiz]

Here's what I've got after updating yesterday's games.

All #s are from All Star Break and have no filters:

FB30 243-196
BB30 83-58
FB99 245-206
PT45 204-146 (9-2 yesterday)
PT60 195-134 (10-3 yesterday)

HomePT30 151-99 (7-3 yesterday)
HomePT30 & PT45 136-88 (7-2 yesterday)

Have a good day all.
Good luck!

Looking at todays games without filters BB 5-1 and PT 6-3
Butto did you get the same results

[ButtoMcFarty]

Looking at todays games without filters BB 5-1 and PT 6-3
Butto did you get the same results

I got BB at 5-1...PT at 7-4 with the default 30 day setting.

PT45 9-3
PT60 10-3

[Formulawiz]

Nice win yesterday with SF and PHI

[peterpan19]

nothing today guys

[Formulawiz]

I believe we have HOU and BOS

I will be posting college and pro football power rating spreadsheets later today. Should I keep them both together under one thread or separate them under 2 separate thread.

[Cranium]

Do what's easiest for you Wiz! Thanks for doing it!

[peterpan19]

yes hou it is...bos is also a very close call but not an official play onl .9 but still very good

GL

[Formulawiz]

yes hou it is...bos is also a very close call but not an official play onl .9 but still very good

GL

BOS was fine at -151. How about BB 2-0 and PT 5-1

[peterpan19]

I guess no plays today...
And bos was only .9 and not 1 thats why it was unofficial
GL

[Formulawiz]

New College and Pro Football Power Rating Spreadsheets

I have started a new thread under NFL called New college and Pro Football Power Ratings and uploaded both Sportrends college and Pro spreadsheets along with the rules and filters. If Anyone has any filters they would like to add please list them.
For those of you who have difficulty running the Excel spreadsheet go to sportrends website and the power ratings are listed there. It looks like the software's PR's can only be obtained if you buy the software. I also noticed they have something new on their website for handicapping college and pro football in which they make picks. I dont know what criteria they are using but I will be watching it very closely.
Peter, Will you have the time to run the thread by placing the picks up. I think we should follow both the PR's and the new system sportrends is using.
Anyway good luck.

[Formulawiz]

The plays today are ATL, NYY and SEA

[peterpan19]

plays are correct today
I will try to post the PR picks for nfl and cfb
GL

[Formulawiz]

Nice day, TPR system went 2-1
Unbelievable start for sportrends college football
College Football - The PR system went 1-0 and I guess Ill call the new system F&LA went 3-1. Overall a 4-1 day.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

nice day!

[Formulawiz]

Looks like NYY and SEA

[peterpan19]

nyy and sea today

GL

[peterpan19]

ok 1-1 day... I will update the overall record in a bit...

GL

[peterpan19]

overall record so far is 52-35 +14.05 units
favs only 42-17 +18.75
dogs only 10-18 -4.70

Aug record was 35-25 +7.9 units
favs only 29-11 +13.75
dogs only 6-14 -5.85

so it looks like it makes no sense to play dogs anymore... but we will monitor it and hopefully we will be back next year again...

GL

[Formulawiz]

overall record so far is 52-35 +14.05 units
favs only 42-17 +18.75
dogs only 10-18 -4.70

Aug record was 35-25 +7.9 units
favs only 29-11 +13.75
dogs only 6-14 -5.85

so it looks like it makes no sense to play dogs anymore... but we will monitor it and hopefully we will be back next year again...

GL

Its obvious if we did not play dogs we would be up 32.5 units. Thats pretty impressive. Not too many services out there could match this.

Secondly, the BB system is on fire this month. For the year I believe we are up 37.2 units and with a win/loss record of 162-102, 61.4%

I have not kept a record of the PT system since its all new to me.

[peterpan19]

SF and LAA are plays today...

GL, but remember SF is a dog today...

[peterpan19]

formula
we would be up 18.75 units overall and we would hit around 70% with favs only... its not 32.5 units.... that was the overall record (end of July until now) and just the record for August...

but still 18.75 units is not bad...and almost 14 units in August was pretty good...and remember I use closing lines and most of the time the favs went up... so getting play early probably save you 1 unit in vig in August alone...

[peterpan19]

both plays won... of course we will track the dogs...and I will look a bit closer at what kind of dogs we had plays on, but I would think any team that is in the playoff hunt and is a dog, should be a play...
lets see what I kind find

GL

[peterpan19]

ok so I looked at the data again... and I was right about what I thought that you can find a trend on the dogs... I would say that dogs upto 140 are ok... because the record on pretty big dogs 140+ is only 2-9... record for dogs 140 and below is 9-9 + 2 units.... so they actually have a chance to win... so this week so far we are 5-3 +1.9... if we eliminate the one huge underdog we played this week with HOU on Tuesday we would be a bit better...
our official overall record is at 54-35 (60.67 %) +16.05 units
modified we could be 52-26 (66.66%) +21.75 units...
I mean the season is almost over and I will keep the official record with all official plays until the season is over but I would like to make sure that everyone knows that betting dogs bigger than 140 is not profitable at all... we have 3 more weeks to see how it does and hopefully we will be back next year again with it right from the start (mid May as usual...)...

todays picks to follow later on...