The more I look at the game the more I want to back garza tonight. Anyone on this or have thoughts? Is Tex out?
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definitely, i try not to play anything over -115, but unless i'm really feeling it, i stick to + money. I think the most juice i laid this year was LAD -1.5 @ -120 with billingsley on the bump in san diego. My philosophy is that if you really think a -140/-150 team is going to win, then you shouldn't have a problem dropping less money on the runline to make plus money (ie dodgers and d-rays yesterday)
kinda liking seattle. Silva has never been good on the road, but he'll surprise the hell out of some people and show up at home. furthermore, I know a lot of prospects and spot starters in this game and i haven't heard of loux before this year, looking him up, dudes a 30 year old who's been floatin around in the minors and hasn't made a start since 2003. He pitched some decent innings in relief, but nothing to make me convinced he is untouchable by a club that took 5 of 7 on the road to start the season, including a split in minnesota and a sweep of the A's who took a pair at anaheim. Not saying seattle wins the division or anything, but they are no less hot than the angels and the angels are beatable on the road. Furthermore, the public is just itching to fade silva and i know he's capable of spinning some gem like outtings and catching people off guard.
SEA MLComment -
Excellent explanation wang. If a person is willing to take a -150 line you might as well go all the way and do away with the vig and play the runline at + money. Everything in baseball wagering is about getting plus money winsComment -
the more i look at it, i think i'm going to add tampa ML too. -115 is pretty cheap at this juncture for them in a home game, imho. Burnett and sabathia aren't going to dazzle every time they hit the mound even though the public seems to think they will. In this case, burnett is matched up against an arm that is really just about as good as his in matt garza. I means seriously, is it THAT impressive that he went 5 and 1/3, giving up 2 runs to the orioles, and it really didn't impress me that the yankees slapped around on alfredo simon and their bullpen. Nevertheless, the public was all but enamored of that half decent performance by burnett and is jumping all over him, while garza is just chilling there at -115, small fluctuation in that line, but it's back where it started because the public wants to donate burnett money to the books. gotta take tampa who in my opinion is a much better all around team, especially hitting, and showed last year they have a flair for late inning dramatics, just in case they don't just go out and handle business.
TB ML
posted card:
ARI ML
SEA ML
FLA ML
TB ML
kinda debating on rolling with Dice K -1.5, still looking at that, but he was their road stopper last year, so i'm thinking about tapping that once more here before it becomes riding a dead horse.Comment -
tex rangers win tonight... surprised matsuzaka is -132 vs oak...Comment -
career saves? of course not... he hasn't been a career closer like jones has (nor has he been given as much of a chance), but he has much better stuff, a much more live fastball. there are a million better relievers in the game who have better stuff and are harder to hit than todd jones, but will never get as much of a chance to close as jones was able to land, specifically before he lost the velocity on his pitches (which was how he was in detroit, where he was servicable, but not dominant, getting touched up frequently, just rarely enough to "blow saves")
People are sour on him because he ran could for two half seasons, but dude has done well for them for a while. As a fantasy baller, i never touched todd jones when he was on detroit. I kept praying that they'd give rodney a shot to close because he has much more dominating potential... 2005 he posted a 2.86 ERA and 2006 he was 3.54, filling in very well at closer while jones had injuries. He really struggled with control last in 2007 and early in 2008, but finished up well late last year and has looked good so far this year. When he's right he can hit upwards of 96 on the gun and can be a real challenge to hit, it's just about whether or not he's got his control and so far this year, he's looking good.
The rest of their pen needs help, but so far, there's no reason to worry about rodney (who by the way was also largely instrumental in their world series run)Comment -
When a team is -150 ML they are usually a +120 RL so what I do is bet 1 unit on the RL and 1.5 units on the ML that way if they happen to win by 1, you break even. If they win by 2+ you turn 2.5 units into 5 units, effectively doubling your bet without paying juice! Then of course if they lose youre out all 2.5 u but thats gambling! Just a thought, I'm sure I'm not the first to say it...
oh, and the best part about that type of "system" is if you pick more games correctly than incorrectly overall, you make a profit!Comment -
yeah... too much RLM on that game... no dice k for me. And as a matter of fact, i like your point on texas. Simon is still young and rough and should get tattered in his first road start this year, while mccarthy looked fairly decent in his first start (for a texas pitcher), but that's all texas needs against mediocre pitching, a decent effort themselves. don't like the SU money, so i'll runline mccarthy off that close loss to a hot baltimore squad. Texas outslugs the O's tonight. Really good movement in texas's favor
TEX -1.5Comment -
Booked:
TB -112
Card/Dback u5 1H -105
Fla o9
Fla 1H +140Comment -
ok... so i think i'm done now, and here's the posted card:
+$
FLA ML (double up tomrrow if some how this doesn't hit)
ARI ML (double up tomrrow if some how this doesn't hit)
TEX -1.5
small vig plays
TB ML
SEA MLComment -
the hedge on ariz is st. louis and over parlayComment -
CK,
when betting against -150 teams....how about hedging with a 5 inning run line on the favorite @ -1/2....the juice is usually much lower and you might be able to hit both sides of the bet??Comment -
What up:
Booked:
Minnesota -117
Tampa Bay -115
Arizona +110
Baltimore +127
GL to all!Comment -
LOVE the over, and the angels side in this...
Silva has had a very rough spring, had a very rough last two months of 08.... guy is on his way out...
Loux, gives up a TON of hits per inning, in A, AA, AAA and in mlb so far... also had a rough spring....
also took the hits/runs/errors over 28.5Comment -
I've seen most of the Marlin games this year, and they are much better than most think. Maybin is about to open up a can....don't be surprised if he starts putting up numbers. When I checked 5Dimes I was really surprised to see the numbers...I got in at +150ML.Comment -
Hey all, just wanted to check in and see how everyone is doing. Been looking at NHL playoff which kick start tomorrow and i'll have some plays starting tom. Danrman, CK, Wang, Jimbo and the rest, keep it up!Comment -
thing about Javy Vasquez, is that he has top 10 or better "stuff" in the majors, he just doesn't have the brains/heart to harness it.....
but with a new setting and great pitching coach.... who knows...
he can have a 1 hit 12 strike out game, or blow up... never know with this guyComment -
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I wish i got that game on TV i love both those pitchers, took the under
(Carpenter/Scherzer)Comment -
the yankees are getting blowed out tonight, and i expect them to bounce back tomorrow after this embarrassing performance. burnett has always been solid vs the rays with a career 2.98/1.05 era whip, and his last 6 starts at TB have all resulted in earned runs of 3 or less each game. garza has a career 5.00/1.48 against ny.
-yankees +100
fade the rookies for my next 2 plays:
john danks matches up with the young phenom rick porcello on tue. porcello is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, but is no doubt not ready yet at the tender age of 20. the tigers are known for letting their young arms get the experience at the big level, and porcello was not sharp in his first game. the whitesox are 5-1 vs the tigers in games started by danks. give me the whitesox ace at a nice price.
-whitesox (ML)
what can be said about chris carpenter. always one of my favorite pitchers for his bulldog like approach on the mound. he works fast, and keeps the pitch count down thus ending lots of games on his own. hes coming off of major arm surgery, but his preseason + start 1 resemble the carpenter of old. the cards look great early on, and i'll fade the young (but super talented) scherzer in this spot. hes had a rough spring dealing with shoulder issues, and was not sharp in his last tuneup walking 5 in 4inn. he may not be healthy yet.
-cards -140Comment -
Dex, love the avatar btw... mets fan from NJ, i'll be at the game sat for his startComment -
Marlins 1st half cashes boys and girlsComment -
Nice!
I just need them to hang on for the 2 unit @ +150 cash.Comment -
Hindsight im happy i didn't make it, but thats for another thread on another site...Comment -
5 up already in the TEX game....lol. I wish I laid money on that game. So far I'm hanging in with my bets:
KC -1.5 +143, 1 unit
TB ML -116, 1 unit
FL ML +150, 2 units
CIN / MIL o9 -105, 2 unitsComment -
vazquez done after 6inn - 12K's! think he likes being back in the NL?
volstad gets out of a tough jam there with jones/mcann up...niceComment
