CK'S Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Tuesday 4/14/09

[Jimbo42]

Florida's gonna beat Lowe too. Matter of fact, they are going to win this series.

I totally agree... I'm a Dodger fan so I am very familiar with Lowe.... He's good but he ain't all that... he's gonna crash and burn real soon...

[cocknocker]

peterpan19,

I played this one hard. I like to pick and choose my spots. I thinkthat this one is an excellent situation. I feel that the Marlins will win this series so i will take them in game 1 and tail them until I get a huge payday. I am starting with 3 dimes on this one. if they win then i will lay off of this series. That's how I roll when I feel that a team will win a series.


I just played

Marlins+140 HEAVY
Tigers+145 1st half Standard
Marlins-1.5 +215 Standard

All crumbs. You gotta love that.

Keep betting against those -150 lines gentlemen. It's the only way to consistently make money in this game.

[cocknocker]

All that I know is that Lowe better not be favored over -150 tomorrow or else I may be forced to play the marlins again win or lose in today's game

[chrisharvard01]

mafia thoughts on cinci and the brew crew??

On the one hand I have my deep hate for arroyo... on the other it is a fact the reds do well at miller park.

can babe bruce and company get it done against the win starved brew crew?

[peterpan19]

ck

thx...oh yeah I loved the Marlins even b4 I read you were on em, but now I love em even more...making this a big 3x play for me too... hell I hate to lay anything above -150 for sure too, if it is between -120 and -140 I will play the -1 RL most of the time, just hate to pay so much juice...

GL with the Tigers, I think we can both cash...but White Sox will win...

btw make sure your new one wont see the light of earth at the 12th December, bad day , really bad day...trust me on this one, especially if its a girl... two of my ex were born that day and well they both were real bitches...

[peterpan19]

and we have another rain delay...anyone know how the weather really is ?

thx

[cocknocker]

I'll tell her to hold on until the 13th peterpan, lol! We have rain delay right now in Detroit

[ASH0479]

...

It raining in Detroit if thats what your asking~

I like the Marlins, Angels and Cardinals today....Arizona's offense has been absolutely horrible this year....

[aneurysm00]

CWS-DET postponed now (espn.com)

[Jimbo42]

I believe our game is postponed fellas.....

[PER$I$TENT_LUCK]

YEP..It is postponed

[TAPDATBOOK]

I am playing the Marlins 1st half now. The line was a misprint or something. I called up the Sportbook Manager and asked him if the line was correct being the Marlins -155 1st half. It turns out that it was incorrectly assigned the wrong line. We're all good now baby. All systems go!

Marlins-110 1st half

CK, my book got Marlin +135 , is it still a play???? where do you get it at -110???? Thanks

[peterpan19]

he only has it for 4.5 Innings

[kmarinouofm]

everybody's doing the fish.. yeah yeah yeah...

[cocknocker]

Oh well, bring on the Marlins!

[Flyers09]

marlins +140
also getting them at +125 at my other book...that goes to show something, eh?

[whatisit]

CK you play every team against a -150 or above fav or pick and choose?

[shoebox]

I dont see why you guys are all jacked about the marlins, im on the other side


GL mafia

[Flyers09]

what does every one think about with Carlos Silva (mariners) OVER Shane Loux (angels)?

[jellobiafra]

what does every one think about with Carlos Silva (mariners) OVER Shane Loux (angels)?

I think you've got the best team in the AL West (LAA) facing one of the worst starting pitcher in the AL West (Silva). I think the Angels at -105 is good value, I don't care who they're pitching. Fade Silva.

[Flyers09]

I think you've got the best team in the AL West (LAA) facing one of the worst starting pitcher in the AL West (Silva). I think the Angels at -105 is good value, I don't care who they're pitching. Fade Silva.

idk

A.J. Burnett(yankees) OVER Matt Garza(devil rays)

[jellobiafra]

Well, I haven't been doing so well the past few days so I might not be the guy, but....

I think the Rays at home at even money is good value. Garza is a beast and their bats have really woken up the last 2 games. Burnett scares me a little because that guy can throw a 2-hit, 15K game any time out. But he seems to be a bit of a slow starter if memory serves and I don't think he really gets it going til a little later in the year. I like Tampa at the price.


EDIT:
Would like to know if Tex is going to be back tonight. He's got a bruise or something kept him out last night. Could be significant if he's not in the lineup - even though he's another notoriously slow starter.

[MrWendell]

Atlanta Braves BIG is the play of the day. Love Braves today.
GL all, have a good day

[Flyers09]

Well, I haven't been doing so well the past few days so I might not be the guy, but....

I think the Rays at home at even money is good value. Garza is a beast and their bats have really woken up the last 2 games. Burnett scares me a little because that guy can throw a 2-hit, 15K game any time out. But he seems to be a bit of a slow starter if memory serves and I don't think he really gets it going til a little later in the year. I like Tampa at the price.


EDIT:
Would like to know if Tex is going to be back tonight. He's got a bruise or something kept him out last night. Could be significant if he's not in the lineup - even though he's another notoriously slow starter.

i went with the first 5 innings(mariners -110 and yankees EV)

[Flyers09]

only because of the pitchers

[SFwillis52]

In my opinion you're going to lose that Marlin bet. This is a different Braves team from the past few years, kind of reminds me of their seasons from 1991, and 1992 when they won games small. McCann, Chipper are hitting the ball when it counts most. Franceour's bat has come alive from his rookie season, their rookie CF Schafer is something special, and Escobar is good. It's nothing special, but the batters, the pitchers, the defensive they have are getting it done.

Braves will win tonight 6-4 over the Marlins. They'll take the series I'm sure since they do not have to face the Marlins top two aces.

[cocknocker]

I dont see why you guys are all jacked about the marlins, im on the other side


GL mafia

You made the wrong call on this one. The wrong team is favored. But it's okay. We still love ya!

[cocknocker]

CK you play every team against a -150 or above fav or pick and choose?

I pick and choose. I simply look at what the favored pitcher does when he is a favorite of -150 or more. If that is mixed with reverse line movement of any kind, or a huge (65% or more) public laying on the favorite -1.5, then usually it's something that I like. In this case Vazquez is certainly not a -150 pitcher. Anyone who had the foresight to look up his record as a -150 or more pitcher would have this game and this situation as an auto-fade.

This guy got so far into Ozzie Guillen's doghouse that he was exploited an called out in the media for underperforming when the team could least afford it (down the stretch). Seriously the fact that he's being listed as a -150 pitcher is a joke. He is not Bob Gibson to be sure.

[solobass]

damn, no tigers. the weather sucks in michigan right now.

[jellobiafra]

I pick and choose. I simply look at what the favored pitcher does when he is a favorite of -150 or more. If that is mixed with reverse line movement of any kind, or a huge (65% or more) public laying on the favorite -1.5, then usually it's something that I like. In this case Vazquez is certainly not a -150 pitcher. Anyone who had the foresight to look up his record as a -150 or more pitcher would have this game and this situation as an auto-fade.

This guy got so far into Ozzie Guillen's doghouse that he was exploited an called out in the media for underperforming when the team could least afford it (down the stretch). Seriously the fact that he's being listed as a -150 pitcher is a joke. He is not Bob Gibson to be sure.

I'm with you on Vazquez. He's not worth that price. That's why I'm not playing the Braves tonight. However, the fact that you get the Marlins at such a good price doesn't mean that they will win the game. In other words, I'm with your philosophy of not playing teams at -150 or more. I just don't know if I buy the correlation between that and automatically playing teams on the other side of that number.

I also realize in this case that you truly think the Marlins are going to win the game, so this is more a philosophical question for you than a practical one in this case. Again, just because you feel a team is overvalued on a line doesn't make them less likely to win the game. Therefore betting the other side doesn't make you any more likely to win money. In fact, you're more likely to lose. A -150 favorite is still for the most part the more likely team to win.

[wangichu]

i like the tigers ck but you recommend playing the 1st half cause you dont think they can close it out.. no todd jones huh

when fernando rodney's right he's much better than todd jones ever was

[cocknocker]

Derek Lowe is -200 for tomorrow's game. Auto fade is in order again.

Tomorrow:

Marlins +180
Arizona-110
Houston/Pittsburgh over 9.5
Colorado+180 (Jason Marquis back at Wrigley! With a Rockies jersey on! Cubs pen ain't shit)

[cocknocker]

I'm with you on Vazquez. He's not worth that price. That's why I'm not playing the Braves tonight. However, the fact that you get the Marlins at such a good price doesn't mean that they will win the game. In other words, I'm with your philosophy of not playing teams at -150 or more. I just don't know if I buy the correlation between that and automatically playing teams on the other side of that number.

I also realize in this case that you truly think the Marlins are going to win the game, so this is more a philosophical question for you than a practical one in this case. Again, just because you feel a team is overvalued on a line doesn't make them less likely to win the game. Therefore betting the other side doesn't make you any more likely to win money. In fact, you're more likely to lose. A -150 favorite is still for the most part the more likely team to win.

I disagree. The -150 line is the biggest way for you to lose your money if you take them.I hve a lot of data to support my side of this debate. There are VERY FEW pitchers that are deserving of a -150 line. I am more interested in winning with plus money. How in the hell else am i supposed to get money. Taking -150 favorites? Whatever. One loss at that number is 1 and half losses. One win is almost 1.5 wins or more very time.

[jellobiafra]

I agree with you on not taking those favorites at that price. I do. I just don't know if I can take the leap with you to automatically take the team on the other side of that number. That's all I'm sayin.

[CUAIrish]

I don't have the post off hand to refer you to, but CK's done the research, the numbers are supported. Not every pitcher mind you, but certain pitchers are not worthy of such heavy chalk. Thats why its a pick and choose position on the games. Certain pitchers definitely qualify though.