CK'S Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Tuesday 4/14/09

wangichu · 04-14-09, 02:43 AM

tues leans:

with you on the marlins. They were my early season favorites to secure the wild card if not win the division SU. Also volstad was solid as a dog last year and has a promising future. Add to that the flaky pitching of javier vazquez and you've got yourself insurance in case the braves get to volstad, you know the marlins will touch up javy.

FLA ML

As for the other game, john danks is more of a bad luck pitcher. He'll keep his boys in the game and or with a lead only to watch the team collapse around him and blow it for him. If anything i just see good value on a solid team at home off a loss in which their staff got slapped around

DET ML

also like max scherzer to pitch well enough to keep his team poised for a late win. could see the over being a better play, but i think that the dbacks take this one.

ARI ML

danrman · 04-14-09, 02:52 AM

ck i think atl will beat volstad and then the next day fla will be lowe.. fla will be looking ahead to defeat the atl ace

cocknocker · 04-14-09, 03:02 AM

Florida's gonna beat Lowe too. Matter of fact, they are going to win this series.

danrman · 04-14-09, 03:11 AM

upset of the day....... arizona over st. louis.... the cardinals play the cubs in their next series over the weekend.. carpenter's next start is against a red hot pitcher in lilly for the cubs.. the game is going to be sundays espn game... carpenter will save his best for the cubs.. take arizona in an upset.. here's a little inside information nobody is thinking.. ariz. pitcher max scherzer isnt that bad but more importantly he was born in st. louis and will be out to beat the cards in the worst way

danrman · 04-14-09, 03:18 AM

i like the tigers ck but you recommend playing the 1st half cause you dont think they can close it out.. no todd jones huh

suicidekings · 04-14-09, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by danrman

carpenter will save his best for the cubs..

I really think it's a mistake to think that Carpenter won't bring his A-game in ARI. After missing so much time, he looked great in his first start of the season, keeping the ball on the ground and only allowing one hit. He's going to give up 1-2 runs max to the D-Backs measly offense (team BA = .225) and I highly doubt that Scherzer (who in fairness isn't a bad pitcher) can match that going up against STL's solid lineup.

suicidekings · 04-14-09, 04:39 AM

FLA (+130) @ ATL
- CK already laid out the reasons why. The odds are not reflective of how good this Florida team is, and Vazquez should never be listed at -150...

STL / KC Parlay (+190)
- I really like Carpenter and Davies to come through with solid outings, and both are playing on teams with something to prove. The prices were a bit steep, so I thought I'd take a shot on the parlay.

BOS @ OAK (+135)
- Eveland has had one career start vs BOS and got roughed up at Fenway. Boston just aren't hitting well yet this year (Team BA of .235) with the exception of Youklis, and I think Oakland has a good shot at shutting them down again.

BAL (+131) @ TEX, OVER 11 (-125): Parlay (+316)
- Yeah, I know. Taking the over in a Rangers game... original. On Monday night, with two of their better pitchers going, these two teams still combined for 19 runs. I'll probably take it again the next night as well. Also, there's no reason for the ML to favour Texas so heavily, considering this game could go either way, so I'm adding a BAL & OVER parlay as well, just for fun.

solobass · 04-14-09, 06:54 AM

reds
orioles
jays
that's what's up for today. also CK i am jacking your tigers 4.5 play, porcello has some great stuff. good slider, true circle change, and good mound presence.

best of luck today!

CUAIrish · 04-14-09, 08:15 AM

Early Leans:

I like Danks coming of a stellar first start in this matchup and look for him to continue his dominance today.

CWS -121

I think Marlins will squeak out the win today in a high scoring game. Both teams are averaging over 6 runs per game. At o/u9 I'll take the over.

Marlins +140
Over 9

I love this pitching matchup. Carpenter has just been unstoppable and I'm eager to see how Scherzer performs today. I think this game goes under but will be taking the 6-2 Cards to get the win.

Under 9
Cards -138

cocknocker · 04-14-09, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by danrman

i like the tigers ck but you recommend playing the 1st half cause you dont think they can close it out.. no todd jones huh

Hell no. The Tigers bullpen is horrid. I would like for my money to avoid them at all costs

RoagBettor · 04-14-09, 09:13 AM

I'm trailing CK on baseball and basketball. I'm tired of trying to pick my own games. If something ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

Let's make some money.

Panekkkk · 04-14-09, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I really think it's a mistake to think that Carpenter won't bring his A-game in ARI. After missing so much time, he looked great in his first start of the season, keeping the ball on the ground and only allowing one hit. He's going to give up 1-2 runs max to the D-Backs measly offense (team BA = .225) and I highly doubt that Scherzer (who in fairness isn't a bad pitcher) can match that going up against STL's solid lineup.

I agree, I think the under is the correct play. It paid last night so there's a chance the bats might heat up tonight but I'm thinking not.

SamsNCharge99 · 04-14-09, 09:22 AM

peterpan19 · 04-14-09, 09:40 AM

plays for today:
CSW -125 ... detroits bullpen is a mess and I just think that Danks (2-0, 2.41 ERA in 3 starts last year vs Detroit) will keep them in the game and as soon as the rookie is out (he might go 5 or 6 Innings and could very well only allow 2 or 3 runs here) the White Sox will get the runs they need to win the game

LAA 5 Innings -108
first start for Loux since 2003, but he did a decent job as a reliever this year and should give the Angels 5 solid Innings...on the other side we have Silva who still sucks like last year... I know its Griffey's homecoming, but I still like my chances for the first 5 here...

FL +134
I dont need to add anything on that one

ck how much did you put on the ML today ? 3k or less ?

NYY +110
Burnett has an 2.98 ERA against TB, Garza only 4.56 ERA... both were pretty solid in their first start... I just have to got with the Yankees today, after I didnt pull the trigger on them after all yesterday...

STL -1 -110
I would love to see the Dbacks win here today... but that aint gonna happen...Scherzer is good and hot and he might give us 6 Innings today, but after that ??... bullpen is ok but dont talk about the Offense...only 24 runs so far !!!... I say STL takes that one here today... Scherzer just wont get any help again today like in all of his starts last year...

maybe cin, not sure yet...

GL guys

CUAIrish · 04-14-09, 10:17 AM

I'm torn on GSW vs Tigers, I don't like going against CK and the others on Tigers, but I think CWS is the play, I foresee Danks holding it down and Tigers RP giving it up. Can anyone sway me one way or another?

Euphoria38 · 04-14-09, 10:19 AM

OK Heres my picks, and just a precaution everytime i post on CK's thread my picks go ass end up... so heres for a change.

#1: CARDINALS PK -143 over Deutsche-Bags

The logic that Chris Carpenter is not going to bring his a-game in a hitter friendly ball park is completely irrational. When you start a baseball game you bring it all, if you've played the game before you know that. You really think that DUI LaRousa is gonna allow a half-assed start from his ace? LOL

Ok now with that aside, Max Scherzer has tremendous stuff but is facing a hot lineup who can surely belt him. Good luck facing the best hitter in baseball. Oh and the Dung-Bags can't score runs, now the dog backers are asking the dung-bags to beat up a pitcher who almost put up a no-no in the first start of the year. During the post-game interview in Carpenter's last start the press asked DUI for his opinion if Carpenter is back to his health and he said: "Yea he looks like the year he was in it for the CY Young". Bottomline, ROOKIE vs Ace.... you chose.

#2 Fish +1.5 at Braves...

Well the Braves don't look like putrid turd like they did for most of last year because of injuries, but I've had my share of watching Javy pitch for years up here and he knows how to ruin games. He has a solid ERA during the season, but he cracks under pressure. Both teams are hot hitting, this one will be close. Volstad got touched up in his first start I believe, but those young fish have got a great team going this year, and Charlie Manuel seems to thing they have the best rotation in the NL East. Go fish! My favorite team.

#3 Tigers +1.5 vs Sux

Im not sure what the Sux record vs pitchers they havent seen before may be, but Porcello pitched well enough against a hot hitting Toronto team in the Rogers Center to earn my respect. Both pitchers are solid Danks and Porcello, but... Steve Stone seems to think that Detroit's lineup has alotta pop and they all have seen Danks before. Also Danks record at Comerica is garbage and the Sux suck enough this year to blow something like this. This is a hit or miss game, either the Sux see Porcello and touch him up, or its a grinder and we all have to hold our balls while watching detroit's bullpen blow the game. BTW, while this game may not be determined by starters the Tigers have brought up another A pitcher into the big leagues at the age of 20.

#4 Lastly, unrelated 76'ers over Boston. While this may actually be a close game, man ive never see Boston suck that much against the Cav's all year. Mikki Moore who may play alotta this game at PF or C is horrible and a human turnstyle. I'll leave my extremely biased comments short here. Please let me know what ya'll think.

Chi_archie · 04-14-09, 10:36 AM

Hard to back a pitcher that has exactly 1 game professional experience above high A ball. He didn't miss enough bats in his lone minor league season... that concerns me for his mlb future... if you aren't missing alot of bats at the A ball level, then you are gonna flat out get crushed at times in the major league level

CUAIrish · 04-14-09, 10:42 AM

GL, gotta stuck with my gut on this one.

Booked:

CWS -122

Euphoria38 · 04-14-09, 10:48 AM

Chi_Archie:

We'll see, if the sux touch up Porcello early in the game its over, if they have trouble seeing him and hes pitching well, then it could get interesting. His first start was very encouraging, Toronto is playing alot better ball than the White Sox are. In terms of MRP on both sides of the fence, they all suck. The Sox bullpen minus Matt Thornton, Linebrink and Janks all suck. And you could say the same for Detroit, except the Farns is long gone.

On the other end: The sux are rookie killers when it comes to Tiger's rookies... they've touched up Andrew Miller and Verlander in their rookie season, but heres a quote from Leyland on MLB.COM:

"I don't think there's a big difference between [ages] 22 and 20 if you're Porcello," Leyland said. "Somebody else, it might be, but this kid's very mature beyond his age, I think. Age to me is just a number. He's more mature than some 25-year-olds I've been around. "I look at him as a Major League pitcher. He's a very interesting guy, and he's here. This is about performance."

italiano22 · 04-14-09, 10:53 AM

I like the Tigers today

Euphoria38 · 04-14-09, 10:59 AM

Oh, and lastly heres a writeup for the game on MLB.COM

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090413&content_id=4257962&vkey=news_det&fext=.jsp&c_id=det

For the tigers side atleast, you can see the MLB TV highlighting him. Im putting my foot down and saying the Tigers know what it takes for a young kid to be composed in big leagues by now, and leyland better be right.

italiano22 · 04-14-09, 11:02 AM

Also like the UNDER in the detroit game at 11............cold and wet day out today

cocknocker · 04-14-09, 11:03 AM

I am playing the Marlins 1st half now. The line was a misprint or something. I called up the Sportbook Manager and asked him if the line was correct being the Marlins -155 1st half. It turns out that it was incorrectly assigned the wrong line. We're all good now baby. All systems go!

Marlins-110 1st half

CUAIrish · 04-14-09, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I am playing the Marlins 1st half now. The line was a misprint or something. I called up the Sportbook Manager and asked him if the line was correct being the Marlins -155 1st half. It turns out that it was incorrectly assigned the wrong line. We're all good now baby. All systems go!

Marlins-110 1st half

My books got Marlins +140 1H...

UndersSuck · 04-14-09, 11:16 AM

Ive got Marlins +135 1st half as well!!

cocknocker · 04-14-09, 11:16 AM

Everyone is doing so much talking about the rookie....Maggs OWNS Danks 10-17 lifetime versus the man.

italiano22 · 04-14-09, 11:17 AM

How does everyone feel about the under 11 in the detroit game? opinions

cocknocker · 04-14-09, 11:18 AM

It looks like maybe I shouldn't have made that call about the 1s half then. The Greek already knows about the patches I take out of their asses every month

peterpan19 · 04-14-09, 11:26 AM

ck
how much did you put on the marlins for the game today ? something like 3 or 3.5k I guess

and your right about Magg, but he was lights out last year against the whole Detroit team...

and yeah I think ck talks about 4.5 Innings only...so thats why he only has -110, one less half inning for ATL

GL

CUAIrish · 04-14-09, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

It looks like maybe I shouldn't have made that call about the 1s half then. The Greek already knows about the patches I take out of their asses every month

Haha, well you talked me into jumping on it now, i was going to wait but was afraid of the line movement if you were getting it at -110

Booked:
Marlins o9
Marlins 1H +140

Im completely torn on this CWS game... feeling like i should have laid off now. When I saw it at first I loved it, now i feel uneasy. We'll see how the chips fall.

Ringo · 04-14-09, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by italiano22

How does everyone feel about the under 11 in the detroit game? opinions

Where are you seeing the total at 11? Ive been seeing 9.5

jellobiafra · 04-14-09, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by italiano22

How does everyone feel about the under 11 in the detroit game? opinions

I love it....considering it took it at 9.5. Where the hell are you getting it at 11?? I just checked and it's still 9.5 at BetJam.

Jimbo42 · 04-14-09, 11:51 AM

Booked:

White Sox -125
Went real light tho as CK and Wang are on the Tigers and there has been a little RLM on the game....

Ya'll got Tigers first 5 so maybe we can all be happy!

peterpan19 · 04-14-09, 11:55 AM

jimbo42

I am with you on the CWS

GL, lets hope we all cash