Detroit had a pitching change so my OAK play is voided
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May 27
Parlay 61-B: Cardinals with Pirates with A's (2.85 to win 8.66)
I always choose "action". Kazmir left early with an injury plus Detroit's pitching change really gave me some bad luck here. That comes with the territory, I guess.Comment -
Wow what a turn of events. My OAK play was voided due to pitcher change but OAK lost anyway so my parlay is still alive. Then the Cards won in the 9th on an error so I won a two-game parlay instead!!!Comment -
Well maybe you can press those winnings into a straight bet of about a -160 or less?Comment -
May 28
Parlay 62-A: Angels with Braves (0.83 to win 2.51)Comment -
May 28
Parlay 62-A: Angels with Braves (0.83 to win 2.51)Comment -
May 29
Parlay 63-A: Reds with Reds OVER 7.5 (0.85 to win 2.59)
Parlay 64-A: Braves with Twins (0.85 to win 2.82)Comment -
May 29
Parlay 63-A: Reds with Reds OVER 7.5 (0.85 to win 2.59)
Parlay 64-A: Braves with Twins (0.85 to win 2.82)
another mind numbing night.....Comment -
May 30
Parlay 65-A: Astros with Brewers -1.5 (0.88 to win 2.66)Comment -
May 30
Parlay 65-A: Astros with Brewers -1.5 (0.88 to win 2.66)
Ain't this fun?Comment -
May 31
Parlay 66-A: Nationals with Tigers -1.5 (0.90 to win 3.39)Comment -
May 31
Parlay 66-A: Nationals with Tigers -1.5 (0.90 to win 3.39)Comment -
June 1
Parlay 67-A: Marlins with Marlins OVER 7.5 (0.92 to win 2.83)Comment -
June 1
Parlay 67-A: Marlins with Marlins OVER 7.5 (0.92 to win 2.83)Comment -
Keel, this is just not working for you buddy. Hate to say this but maybe your capping may need a bit of adjustment or something because on many nights your plays are not even close and your win percentage for the individual games are just atrocious. I understand it only takes one (C) win to recover most or all of your losses but we're approaching the point where your allotted bankroll is exhausting so fast to the point where a (C) win may not even save you as we're approaching 1 unit per parlay. Also psychologically one can only take losing so much without tasting a win of any kind which ultimately affects one's capping. Anyhow I wish you the best of luck the rest of the way. I'm gonna have to save my bankroll and jump ship but I'll likely jump back on when NFL starts.
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Keel, this is just not working for you buddy. Hate to say this but maybe your capping may need a bit of adjustment or something because on many nights your plays are not even close and your win percentage for the individual games are just atrocious. I understand it only takes one (C) win to recover most or all of your losses but we're approaching the point where your allotted bankroll is exhausting so fast to the point where a (C) win may not even save you as we're approaching 1 unit per parlay. Also psychologically one can only take losing so much without tasting a win of any kind which ultimately affects one's capping. Anyhow I wish you the best of luck the rest of the way. I'm gonna have to save my bankroll and jump ship but I'll likely jump back on when NFL starts.
Any "C" win will make me a profit of at least 15 units, probably more. That IS the system. My capping is atrocious. I will give you that. I can't figure it out, yet. I got both of my NBA wins even later than this and I petered out in the NFL as well. It seems I am not much of a handicapper. What I can rely on is that I can find that spark for just a short while to burst into profits. We are gonna see. It takes an iron will.
On the positive side, if I lose my 50 unit bank, I am still up 17 units overall with my system covering all sports. If by chance I get my crazy win, I will be up 82 units overall.Comment -
June 2
Parlay 68-A: Reds with Rockies -1.5 game#1 (0.94 to win 3.12)
stay tuned later this evening.........Comment -
June 2
Parlay 68-A: Reds with Rockies -1.5 game#1 (0.94 to win 3.12)
Parlay 69-A: Pirates with Pirates OVER 7 (0.94 to win 3.22)
stupid Reds blowing it in the 8thComment -
I felt I had some bad breaks during this run, but generally what is happening is that I make a call on a pitcher and I am just wrong. I can't believe how wrong I am on these pitchers.
I think Pittsburgh will hit Heston tonight. Why?
After a good start, Heston will follow it up with a bad start. That's how it goes for a rookie. Pitts offense has come around as well. Burnett has been great for Pitt this year as well. SF scuffling a little of late, too. The total is fairly low at 7. So Pitt and the Over is the play for me. I have this line of thinking on most of my plays and I am just plain wrong...wrong....wrong.Comment -
keep thinking the same way and placing your plays the same way...don't start trying to "fade yourself" as some would suggest...here's why...
analogy time: fair 36-number roulette (with no zeros) wheel...the house runs a promo "any 9-number rectangular section of the layout pays out stake + 3.20xstake" (in effect making a bet on any section +320)...solid player edge of 5% over the long haul...
so you pick a section and keep putting down a stake...your bankroll will go up exactly 5% of your accumulated betting volume if the expected hit-rate is exactly the expected 25% (9 chances out of 36)
clearly there will be periods that over-perform and under-perform that 25% of winning bets meaning bigger than, less than (even negative) the 5% yield
when a sub-expected frequency (ie. win-poor/loss-rich) period drones uncomfortably on...the last thing you should do is give in to the temptation to change the section you're betting on...persist and the long-term 25% will eventually be regressed toward...switch to another section and you'll be kicking yourself
over-shootings and under-shootings of expected means is the way of the universe...baseball games and coin flips (baseball games just take longer and are more complicated, but in the end situational dogs of an objectively-definable sort that hit at 40% over the very long haul do so in real time by alternating peiods of undershooting and overshooting that 40%...padding then draining the bankroll as it does)
your capping protocol is analogous to the 9-numbered section you're playing...call it "zig"....for the last several weeks the spins have come up rich in (greater than 75% ) "zag"...a counter-vailing period rich in "zig" (ie. your current capping angle) will eventually kick in...and you are better to remain with your current definition/location of it, rather than switch to a currently "better" one (one that's clearly "ripe" for a countervailing turn of misfortune)...
long-term estate planners have known this for decades and periodically sell off the well-performing sectors (at high prices) and buy more of the crappily-performing sectors (at low prices)...counseling you to stick with a currently-losing strategy sounds stupid but is actually the best policy...you don't sell the losers (which are ripe for a spell of good-fortune) and move to the winners (which are ripe for a spell of poor-fortune)...
keep thinkin' the same way...the results will come as the baseball season toggles along inexorably and naturally from dog-rich to fave-rich/square-rich to sharp-rich/anti-keel-rich to pro-keel-rich/etc. etc.
the world is one big random sampling generator and if you've been betting on an-under-hit set of events...best to stay put, less you be slapped by Murphy's Law (aka
) when you change (the hot you chase goes cold and the cold you left goes hot)
Last edited by fitguy67; 06-02-15, 11:08 PM.Comment -
BTW, the totals part of the current play is done...we just need the rats to hold on...maybe that swing from anti- to pro-keel results we're clearly ripe for has begun...
so don't intentionally change what you're doing one bit...the random-sampling exercise called the baseball season will bring the relief to end this drought just as fall and winter imply the coming of spring and summer...
this is a hi-variance but ultimately positive-payout slot machine system you've created...but only for those persistent, patient and garden-variety stubborn enough to keep at it till the inevitable happens...
because the bet sizes escalate so slowly because of the 48-1 leverage...we're still a long way from the "uncle" point (that's reached amazingly early with any other loss-recovery protocol of which i'm aware)...
come on Pirates...Last edited by fitguy67; 06-02-15, 11:17 PM.Comment -
June 2
Parlay 68-A: Reds with Rockies -1.5 game#1 (0.94 to win 3.12)
Parlay 69-A: Pirates with Pirates OVER 7 (0.94 to win 3.22)Comment -
Fitguy I know you are right. I have no intention on changing my capping. I can't. All I can do is absorb what is happening in these sports and catch a little fire.Comment -
June 3
Parlay 69-B: Blue Jays with Blue Jays OVER 8 (3.22 to win 10.18)
I am looking at the Jays to score at least 5 and the Nats 3. That is the way I see the pitching go.Comment -
somehow thought that this classic (perhaps the very first truly-modern...ie. it was mega-produced, not just edited-together concert footage) music video captures the spirt
hope the jays and nats batters are feelin' it today...the jays at least slightly moreso
Last edited by fitguy67; 06-03-15, 01:50 PM.Comment -
"B.part 1" comes thru via a touch of good fortune in the form of crucial-for-us (but otherwise-meaningless) 9th-inning extra-insurance run...
coulda' been a breeze if the frackin' nats put their 6 hits to better use and got on the scoreboard...but Oprah says we should invite more blessings into our reality by being grateful for what we have received, lol
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June 3
Parlay 69-B: Blue Jays with Blue JaysOVER 8(3.22 to win 10.18)
I got a push with the over. This profited me 3.483 units. I will press that with the risk amount which equals 6.703.
I will make a straight wager risking 6.703 units. This wager should be no higher than -115, but we'll see.Comment -
June 4
Straight bet: Cardinals (6.703 to win 6.571)
Parlay 69-B: Blue Jays with Cardinals (3.22 to win 10.05)
*Effectively this is what we gotComment -
this got the first half of our "B" ticket for us yesterday...
getting the the power of a pre-mutilation (aka. full-nostrilled) Michael Jackson on our side...
go Cards!
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June 4
Straight bet: Cardinals (6.703 to win 6.571)
Parlay 69-B: Blue Jays with Cardinals (3.22 to win 10.05)
I am glad I finally have another crack at that "C" betComment -
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June 5
Parlay 69-C: White Sox with Braves (13.27 to win 37.55)
This parlay is not quite 3-1. It will still soar over my goal because the previous parlays were over the 3-1 cutoff point.
I have thought long and hard on this one. I will have no regrets. It will be what it will be.Comment -
You got this Keel!!Comment
