Keel's MLB Parlay System

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  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363
    #281
    July 5

    Parlay 11-A: Mariners with Nationals (0.64 to win 1.49)
      Comment
      • keel44
        SBR MVP
        • 08-01-09
        • 3363
        #282
        July 5

        Parlay 11-A: Mariners with Nationals (0.64 to win 1.49)

        All I got to say is ..... finally
          Comment
          • keel44
            SBR MVP
            • 08-01-09
            • 3363
            #283
            July 6

            Parlay 11-B: White Sox with Nationals (1.49 to win 3.32)
              Comment
              • fitguy67
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-13-11
                • 5082
                #284
                keel, got an idea=method to automatically ("systematically") make a set # (prob 1 a day makes most sense, but could be set at 2 or more...just another parameter to be chosen)...

                say you've decided to construct 1 qualifying (ie. +300 or higher...a la "the old way" till u hit your first "uncle" point several days ago and reset) play per day...

                narrowing things down further for simplicity to ML-sides only (eschewing exotics such as RL's/OU's)...here's the simple protocol...

                look over all the ML prices for the entire day's action and extract the play with a minus sign the nearest to 100 (ie. the smallest fave on the card)...

                then pair this up with the plus-signed price the closest to it or greater in absolute value...

                in other words if the smallest fave is -106...you look for a +106 exactly with which to pair it...failing that, you take the next highest plus-price...eg +107 if available, and so-on...you're looking for the the lowest possible plus-number that ideally-meets or exceeds as minimally as possible...

                in so doing any created parlay will be as close to +300 as possible...)

                i'd suggest aiming to create at least one such parlay of two "as close to even-money--on balance--as possible" parlays...the only way we'd get more than one would be if forced into it due to "ties"...eg. two or 3 smallest dogs all at -107...each require inclusion into a parlay for that day (to take the judgement, and the anguish out of it)...so you'd have 3 parlays each starting with that smallest fave price, then line them up in turn with the three smallest dogs available from +107 upwards...

                to further take the judgement-related anguish out of things, i'd nail down a few more things...decide to base play-selection on the something unambiguously clear...such as arbitrarily but "carved in stonedly" using the 5dimes (or pinnacle if you prefer, but once chosen...stick with it) prices (and the play-order) as they appear in http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett.../mlb-baseball/

                so, in "selecting" (actually just mechanically following a protocol) the day's plays you open the price hub, and look down the 5dimes, say, column only...looking for the smallest dog(s)...if more than 1 qualify as such (say two at -109)...the one listed first (ie. closer to the top of the table) is designated the first leg of parly 1, the lower 1 as belonging to parlay #2...now when we look for dogs at -109 or above...should another "tie" arise and there are more than one at +113, say...the "TOP qualifying dog leg goes with the TOP qualifying fave leg, designated as parlay#1 for the day...

                whaddya' think...i'm happy to boot this mechanical anguish-free parlay-selection method applied to your brilliant well-established play-size protocol...and launch it right after the ASB...in a brand-new thread with "Keel's Bet-sizing Protocol" or something to that effect in the title

                whaddya' think?...let the prices themselves construct each day's plays...taking the anguish out of the process
                  Comment
                  • keel44
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-01-09
                    • 3363
                    #285
                    July 6

                    Parlay 11-B: White Sox with Nationals (1.49 to win 3.32)

                    The Reds pitcher gets an rbi double.....totally sux.
                      Comment
                      • keel44
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-01-09
                        • 3363
                        #286
                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                        keel, got an idea=method to automatically ("systematically") make a set # (prob 1 a day makes most sense, but could be set at 2 or more...just another parameter to be chosen)...

                        say you've decided to construct 1 qualifying (ie. +300 or higher...a la "the old way" till u hit your first "uncle" point several days ago and reset) play per day...

                        narrowing things down further for simplicity to ML-sides only (eschewing exotics such as RL's/OU's)...here's the simple protocol...

                        look over all the ML prices for the entire day's action and extract the play with a minus sign the nearest to 100 (ie. the smallest fave on the card)...

                        then pair this up with the plus-signed price the closest to it or greater in absolute value...

                        in other words if the smallest fave is -106...you look for a +106 exactly with which to pair it...failing that, you take the next highest plus-price...eg +107 if available, and so-on...you're looking for the the lowest possible plus-number that ideally-meets or exceeds as minimally as possible...

                        in so doing any created parlay will be as close to +300 as possible...)

                        i'd suggest aiming to create at least one such parlay of two "as close to even-money--on balance--as possible" parlays...the only way we'd get more than one would be if forced into it due to "ties"...eg. two or 3 smallest dogs all at -107...each require inclusion into a parlay for that day (to take the judgement, and the anguish out of it)...so you'd have 3 parlays each starting with that smallest fave price, then line them up in turn with the three smallest dogs available from +107 upwards...

                        to further take the judgement-related anguish out of things, i'd nail down a few more things...decide to base play-selection on the something unambiguously clear...such as arbitrarily but "carved in stonedly" using the 5dimes (or pinnacle if you prefer, but once chosen...stick with it) prices (and the play-order) as they appear in http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett.../mlb-baseball/

                        so, in "selecting" (actually just mechanically following a protocol) the day's plays you open the price hub, and look down the 5dimes, say, column only...looking for the smallest dog(s)...if more than 1 qualify as such (say two at -109)...the one listed first (ie. closer to the top of the table) is designated the first leg of parly 1, the lower 1 as belonging to parlay #2...now when we look for dogs at -109 or above...should another "tie" arise and there are more than one at +113, say...the "TOP qualifying dog leg goes with the TOP qualifying fave leg, designated as parlay#1 for the day...

                        whaddya' think...i'm happy to boot this mechanical anguish-free parlay-selection method applied to your brilliant well-established play-size protocol...and launch it right after the ASB...in a brand-new thread with "Keel's Bet-sizing Protocol" or something to that effect in the title

                        whaddya' think?...let the prices themselves construct each day's plays...taking the anguish out of the process



                        You are right. I need an automatic type bet selection. I just want some kind of logic to it. What you propose seems to random. I will certainly come up with something new and delicious after learning all of these years. Thanks for your support, Fitguy.
                          Comment
                          • keel44
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-01-09
                            • 3363
                            #287
                            July 7

                            Parlay 12-A: Pirates with Tigers OVER 7.5 (0.64 to win 1.47)
                              Comment
                              • keel44
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-01-09
                                • 3363
                                #288
                                July 7

                                Parlay 12-A: Pirates with Tigers OVER 7.5 (0.64 to win 1.47)
                                  Comment
                                  • keel44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-01-09
                                    • 3363
                                    #289
                                    July 8

                                    Parlay 12-B: Orioles with Mets (1.47 to win 3.43)
                                      Comment
                                      • keel44
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 08-01-09
                                        • 3363
                                        #290
                                        July 8

                                        Parlay 12-B: Orioles with Mets (1.47 to win 3.43)



                                          Comment
                                          • keel44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-09
                                            • 3363
                                            #291
                                            July 9

                                            Parlay 13-A: Indians FF with Marlins -0.5 FF (0.64 to win 1.44)
                                              Comment
                                              • keel44
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 08-01-09
                                                • 3363
                                                #292
                                                July 9

                                                Parlay 13-A: Indians FF with Marlins -0.5 FF (0.64 to win 1.44)

                                                What a miserable loss. The Indians score 3 in the bottom of the 6th. They were down 0-1 after 5. I just can't take some of this sometimes.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • keel44
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                    • 3363
                                                    #293
                                                    July 10

                                                    Parlay 14-A: Rangers with Mariners (0.66 to win 1.64)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • keel44
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                        • 3363
                                                        #294
                                                        July 10

                                                        Parlay 14-A: Rangers with Mariners (0.66 to win 1.64)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • keel44
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                            • 3363
                                                            #295
                                                            July 11

                                                            Parlay 15-A: White Sox with White Sox UNDER 6.5 (0.69 to win 1.82)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • keel44
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                • 3363
                                                                #296
                                                                July 11

                                                                Parlay 15-A: White Sox with White Sox UNDER 6.5 (0.69 to win 1.82)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • keel44
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                    • 3363
                                                                    #297
                                                                    July 12

                                                                    Parlay 15-B: Braves with White Sox +1.5 (1.82 to win 4.47)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • keel44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                        • 3363
                                                                        #298
                                                                        July 12

                                                                        Parlay 15-B: Braves with White Sox +1.5 (1.82 to win 4.47)
                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • keel44
                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                            • 3363
                                                                            #299
                                                                            July 17

                                                                            Parlay 16-A: Nationals with Braves +1.5 (0.69 to win 1.82)
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                #300
                                                                                July 17

                                                                                Parlay 16-A: Nationals with Braves +1.5 (0.69 to win 1.82)


                                                                                Now I need a small dog straight bet......1.15 will be the risk amount
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                    #301
                                                                                    July 18

                                                                                    Parlay 16-A: Braves +1.5 with Twins (0.69 to win 2.02)
                                                                                    *straight bet on the Twins 1.15 risk

                                                                                    Parlay 17-A: Tigers with D-Backs (0.69 to win 1.56)
                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                        #302
                                                                                        July 18

                                                                                        Parlay 16-A: Braves +1.5 with Twins (0.69 to win 2.02)
                                                                                        *straight bet on the Twins 1.15 risk

                                                                                        Parlay 17-A: Tigers with D-Backs (0.69 to win 1.56)
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                            #303
                                                                                            July 19

                                                                                            Parlay 18-A: Mariners with Mariners UNDER 8.5 (0.75 to win 1.94)
                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                #304
                                                                                                July 19

                                                                                                Parlay 18-A: Mariners with Mariners UNDER 8.5 (0.75 to win 1.94)
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                    #305
                                                                                                    July 20

                                                                                                    Parlay 19-A: Red Sox game 1 with Angels game 2 (0.78 to win 1.84)
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                        #306
                                                                                                        July 20

                                                                                                        Parlay 19-A: Red Sox game 1 with Angels game 2 (0.78 to win 1.84)
                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                            #307
                                                                                                            July 21

                                                                                                            Parlay 20-A: Cubs with Pirates (0.81 to win 1.93)
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                                #308
                                                                                                                July 21

                                                                                                                Parlay 20-A: Cubs with Pirates (0.81 to win 1.93)
                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                                    #309
                                                                                                                    July 22

                                                                                                                    Parlay 21-A: Padres with Cardinals (0.85 to win 1.96)
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                        #310
                                                                                                                        July 22

                                                                                                                        Parlay 21-A: Padres with Cardinals (0.85 to win 1.96)



                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • keel44
                                                                                                                            SBR MVP
                                                                                                                            • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                            • 3363
                                                                                                                            #311
                                                                                                                            July 23

                                                                                                                            Parlay 22-A: Twins +1.5 with Royals OVER 7 (0.89 to win 2.09)
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • keel44
                                                                                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                • 3363
                                                                                                                                #312
                                                                                                                                July 23

                                                                                                                                Parlay 22-A: Twins +1.5 with Royals OVER 7 (0.89 to win 2.09)

                                                                                                                                1.525 risk on a straight bet tomorrow on a small favorite
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • keel44
                                                                                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                    • 3363
                                                                                                                                    #313
                                                                                                                                    July 24

                                                                                                                                    Parlay 22-A: Twins +1.5 with Astros (0.89 to win 1.91)
                                                                                                                                    * straight bet Astros 1.525 units

                                                                                                                                    Parlay 23-A: Mariners with Mariners UNDER 6.5 (0.89 to in 2.23)
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • keel44
                                                                                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                                                                                        • 3363
                                                                                                                                        #314
                                                                                                                                        July 24

                                                                                                                                        Parlay 22-A: Twins +1.5 with Astros (0.89 to win 1.91)
                                                                                                                                        * straight bet Astros 1.525 units

                                                                                                                                        Parlay 23-A: Mariners with Mariners UNDER 6.5 (0.89 to in 2.23)
                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • Hudini
                                                                                                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                                                                                                            • 05-25-15
                                                                                                                                            • 224
                                                                                                                                            #315
                                                                                                                                            How much units so far?
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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