Ali & Hayduke's Base Pickers

[buddha]

buddha, dogs are 392-497 this season (44.1% W), from 2008-2014 the dogs have won 42.0%. I had the same (wrong) impression of dogs underperforming, too. But I think it has more to do with 'unorthodox' dogs winning more this year and 'normal' dogs losing more often. Like when two good guys are up against other, it may have been often in the past that the dog has won, but now it doesn't. On the opposite site in the past some bad dog pitchers may have lost often in the past, but not so much this season. Don't know. The W% is surprising to me, too.

Well thats surprising. Something is definitely amiss because to have Ali System encounter such (unprecedented in years past) bumpy road thus far is mystifying and this at the same time that you, I and others feel the impression that Dog Win % was lower when it is not is very alarming.

I don't know why Life has to be like this posey, Why when a system that is successful can't just continue to be successful forever after that. Why things have to always be in a constant state of flux, change always happening and in some instances (such as this, bumpy road for system that has previously worked posey) happening without any apparent reasonable explanation as to why.

Its as if All of Life is Suffering posey just a question of to what degree at a given moment.

Just don't know why things gotta be so darn hard here on this Planet, in this Dimension.

and stuff just can't go easier posey.


This is why guys mainly drink beer I think.

To get some relief from the constant challenges of this Life.

[buddha]

I'm gonna get reemed by Lurkers for cluttering up the thread again.

[posey]

buddha, a problem may be the streaks of the dogs. Taking a first look at a query it looks like there are some days in which all dogs win and there are some days in a row where no dog wins. So to make profit you would have to pick all dogs on the day they win and then lay them off on all the other days. It's exaggerated by me, of course, but that's my first impression.

Another observation and fact: dogs with playable odds (I wanna call it playable) of lower than +140 (most guys don't take bigger dogs) are only 52-71 (42.3% W) in June thusfar, this means if you had bet on the favorite in those games where the dogs were +139 or smaller you would have made profit with a ROI of +4.9%. That's very unusual IMO. We normally play dogs with odds of +100 to +135 I would assume.

Overall THIS June has shown that fading all dogs in every game would have made a ROI of +4.0%. So a slump for a dog bettor like ALI is far from surprising.

But this won't keep up. I assume that Vegas and other bookmakers lose money. They have to adjust somehow because most money normally comes in on favorites from the public. Or it's only variance, which I assume is most likely.

I gonna take a further look into it.

[mitch51]

I'm gonna get reemed by Lurkers for cluttering up the thread again.

Anyone is welcome and their comments too. "Sharing is caring"
I will repost for late comers to the thread with different times on the games as usual.

Everyone enjoy your Sunday

Ali

[buddha]

buddha, a problem may be the streaks of the dogs. Taking a first look at a query it looks like there are some days in which all dogs win and there are some days in a row where no dog wins. So to make profit you would have to pick all dogs on the day they win and then lay them off on all the other days. It's exaggerated by me, of course, but that's my first impression.

I gonna take a further look into it.

Have you seen SDQL affected? In regards to DOGS?

Or anything else?

I mean of course: What are results thus far that SDQL guys are having in comparison to years past? If you know of such.

And if you do, have you seen or hear of worse results with Dogs for those using SDQL this season...compared to past ones?

LONGshot that you'd know that I know. Just wondered if maybe you'd heard any declarations from SDQL guys of unusual results...compared to prior seasons. On Dog Plays or anything.


You may have said this already, in other words, but maybe certain teams SERIOUSLY underperforming expectations (CLE, SEA, BOS come to mind) has + teams OVERperforming (MIN, HOU) has contributed to unusual results for Ali System thus far.

Just trying to explore this because at least one person has suggested up in here that Mitch "revamp" the system but that may be the worst thing to do, considering its had success for years.

What if this 1st half thus far is merely some weird aberration, 2nd half falls in line but with a revamped system comPLETE disaster occurs where had system not been tweaked success would have been known?

I just wonder if by finding the root, what lies at the heart of why Ali System has been less successful than in years past, disaster might be avoided cuz it seems weird (and dangerous) to me to assume System needs to be revamped as if suddenly this Season there has been some dramatic fundamental change in baseball......
(maybe the use of the SHIFT is whats effed stuff up lol).....when what might be is just a bizarre thus far First half of season rather than a flaw in the System itself posey.

I don't know.

Perhaps it is not possible to discover what is at the root of the challenge.

[posey]

Not much time left for me to answer, but I can give it a look over the next few hours/days. Although I would have to analyze Ali's picks backwards which will be very hard to do.

But what I CAN say out of nothing is, being a Giants fan I KNOW that (since I have read it today ), that the Giants have a very unorthodox record regarding being dog/fav. Giants are only 16-18 as favs, but 18-9 as dogs. This is variance, I am 100% sure. The Giants have a positive W-L record as dogs with all starters besides Tim Lincecum (when he starts and the Giants are dogs they are 3-4):
- w/ Heston 4-0
- w/ Bumgarner 3-0 (beating Kershaw 3 times)
- w/ Vogelsong 4-2
- w/ Hudson 4-2
The remaining loss was with Peavy at San Diego.

Would have to look that up for all teams/starters. Gonna take some time. Can't imagine that this is business as usual.

[buddha]

Not much time left for me to answer, but I can give it a look over the next few hours/days. Although I would have to analyze Ali's picks backwards which will be very hard to do.

But what I CAN say out of nothing is, being a Giants fan I KNOW that (since I have read it today ), that the Giants have a very unorthodox record regarding being dog/fav. Giants are only 16-18 as favs, but 18-9 as dogs. This is variance, I am 100% sure. The Giants have a positive W-L record as dogs with all starters besides Tim Lincecum (when he starts and the Giants are dogs they are 3-4):
- w/ Heston 4-0
- w/ Bumgarner 3-0 (beating Kershaw 3 times)
- w/ Vogelsong 4-2
- w/ Hudson 4-2
The remaining loss was with Peavy at San Diego.

Would have to look that up for all teams/starters. Gonna take some time. Can't imagine that this is business as usual.

What jumps out there immediately is that HESTON has been a perhaps unexpected surprise...

KERSHAW is Overpriced in his 1st 1/3 of the year starts by books (and/or over OverBet driving the line to where he is very much too expensive and an excellent FADE) during his (somewhere around) first 10 starts of a season.

I believe last year he had a similar less than Kershaw-like start to the Season.

Don't distract from your handicapping in any way posey.

I mean to provoke discussion of "surface observations" about this season thus far, what difference(s) we have seen in MLB that might be contributing to the difference in results of Ali system and if its come to your attention that other systems (such as SDQL) have experienced similar.

I guess I mean: "What differences exist within this years MLB and years past and might these be contributing?"

We have the MUCH more utilized SHIFT of players on the field.

We have the new rules that seek to speed up the game...batters less at liberty to leave batter's box and walk around during at bats...

just off the top of my head. Carry on as usual posey, with your 'capping the priority. Just ruminate upon what, in your opinion, might be causing Ali System to see different results than have been known in the past cuz if people are gonna be suggesting a revamp its important to consider possible cause(s) of changed results prior to such a drastic thing.

<center>Congrats on Chris' No Hitter p.</center>

[mitch51]

Reposting for any late comers to the thread.

Good morning everyone


06.14.15 ALI DOGS

1pm ET
951 ATL/Foltynewicz +114 1.00/1.14

8pm ET
963 CIN/DeSclafani +145 1.00/1.45



HAYDUKE

4pm ET
960 SFG/Heston -145 1.45/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

1:30pm ET
972 BOS/TOR OV 8.5 -120 1.20/1.00
ump-Porter 10 gbhp 5ov/3un 62.5% Over

3pm ET
976 TX/MIN UN 9 -110 1.10/1.00
ump-Rackley 11gbhp 2ov/6un 75.% Under



GLTA

Enjoy your Sunday


Ali & Hayduke

[alamo]

Braves blow a game for us bottom of the 8th a few days ago from 4-1 up...

Tonight 8-3 up....Now down 10-8. Hard to believe

[buddha]

buddha, a problem may be the streaks of the dogs. Taking a first look at a query it looks like there are some days in which all dogs win and there are some days in a row where no dog wins. So to make profit you would have to pick all dogs on the day they win and then lay them off on all the other days. It's exaggerated by me, of course, but that's my first impression.

This would seem to me to possibly be the very sort of aberration we are looking for posey.

Unbelievable discovery just right out the box.

No WAY one could reasonably project that such an odd thing would be true going forward, that this bizarre situation would continue throughout the remainder of the season.

An obvious aberration, bizarre happening unlike (one would think it would be reasonable to assume) past years when Dogs were more evenly distributed throughout Days rather than landing dramatically higher % some days, unusually LOWER % other days.

Genuinely WEIRD posey....I believe you will agree.

Great Work.

[buddha]

Braves blow a game for us bottom of the 8th a few days ago from 4-1 up...

Tonight 8-3 up....Now down 10-8. Hard to believe

and especially versus METS. Not exactly powerhouses of Run Production. 237 runs for this season. 247 now...I guess.

[posey]

Don't have much time, more tomorrow. But only one thing. With their comeback-win the Mets are now 28-9 as favorites this season. Maybe it would be better for the next few weeks to see how this progresses. It should change. Otherwise we should shy away from betting against the Mets when they are favored.

[Cordoba25]

Braves blow a game for us bottom of the 8th a few days ago from 4-1 up...

Tonight 8-3 up....Now down 10-8. Hard to believe

Braves have a bottom 3 pen in league. It's the risk one takes when backing teams w/ shittty bullpens.

I was on this game too. Saw it at 8-3, said to myself that's good, hopefully they don't blow it and went to lunch. Came back and saw they were down 10-8. All one can is laugh at that point. It's either that throw up your lunch.

It's my first full yr capping baseball and I'm learning (the hard way) just how vital middle relief is in baseball to cashing tickets.

[44 Mag]

J.C. So many long winded posts, I could read " War & Peace" in less time. LOL.

[mitch51]

06.14.15 ALI DOGS

1pm ET
951 ATL/Foltynewicz +114 1.00/1.14

8pm ET
963 CIN/DeSclafani +145 1.00/1.45



HAYDUKE

4pm ET
960 SFG/Heston -145 1.45/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

1:30pm ET
972 BOS/TOR OV 8.5 -120 1.20/1.00
ump-Porter 10 gbhp 5ov/3un 62.5% Over

3pm ET
976 TX/MIN UN 9 -110 1.10/1.00
ump-Rackley 11gbhp 2ov/6un 75.% Under



GLTA

Enjoy your Sunday


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
0-2 -2.00u
56-75 -10.51u 42.75%


HAYDUKE
0-1 -1.45u
46-56 -8.47u 45.09%


UMPIRES STREAKING
2-0 +2.00u
18-9 +5.68u 66.67%


Good night


Ali & Hayduke

[brandcorytoby]

Really surprised at the Giants plays @ -145 (2 days in a row)!

[funnyman]

Gil Alexander and his sybermetrics method are down a bunch this year. He won about 60 units last year. Also another site that has a good track record that plays only dogs is also down this year. looks like a tough year for dogs.

[RollinDo]

Hopefully a new week will bring new successes.

For Monday I like Cards with Wacha.
2 Unders I like are:

Yanks - Miami (U 7)
ChiSox - Pitt (U 7)

Another couple for consideration:

Sea - SF
Minn - StL

[WildBillCappin]

Hopefully a new week will bring new successes.

For Monday I like Cards with Wacha.
2 Unders I like are:

Yanks - Miami (U 7)
ChiSox - Pitt (U 7)

Another couple for consideration:

Sea - SF
Minn - StL

I believe Lackey is going today for the Cards, not Wacha.

[mitch51]

Really surprised at the Giants plays @ -145 (2 days in a row)!

Yesterday was the last surprise you'll see. Probably last time the Giants were swept by Arizona was in the 1800s. That was a surprise for sure. It's just as easy to lose with faves as with dogs, I found out.

[RollinDo]

I believe Lackey is going today for the Cards, not Wacha.

Oh thanks...just saw that.
I am going with the Under 7.5 in that one...surprised it's at -105...though it would have juice of about -125...maybe will eventually.
9 straight Unders at PNC...and the starters look to keep that going in Pitt.

[RollinDo]

2 Unders at plus odds that I don't get are:

NYY - Miami
Sea-SF...where is the scoring going to come from???
I will be on this unless I find something out.

[44 Mag]

2 Unders at plus odds that I don't get are:

NYY - Miami
Sea-SF...where is the scoring going to come from???
I will be on this unless I find something out.

Since June 1: NYY average 5.63 RPG. Miami averages: 4.62 RPG same time frame.

[RollinDo]

Since June 1: NYY average 5.63 RPG. Miami averages: 4.62 RPG same time frame.

Good to know....I'm basing my play on Under on stats with both starting pitchers, NYY strong pen, lack of strong in Miami games recently, and 15 mph wind in....ranks 4th on my list today.
Top Under in StL - then in Pitt...probably Under in SF #3....don't get that total.

[44 Mag]

2 Unders at plus odds that I don't get are:

NYY - Miami
Sea-SF...where is the scoring going to come from???
I will be on this unless I find something out.

Good to know....I'm basing my play on Under on stats with both starting pitchers, NYY strong pen, lack of strong in Miami games recently, and 15 mph wind in....ranks 4th on my list today.
Top Under in StL - then in Pitt...probably Under in SF #3....don't get that total.

I was answering that question. Bet anyway you like sir. Just trying to answer your question. They (NYY & MIA) have both improved offensively, that's all I was saying BOL.
<br>
<br>

[mitch51]

Hello everyone



06.15.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
914 MIA/Koehler +135 1.00/1.35

10pm ET
927 OAK/Hahn +105 1.00/1.05




HAYDUKE

7pm ET
907 WAS/Gonzalez +100 1.00/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

None



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

06.15.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
914 MIA/Koehler +135 1.00/1.35

10pm ET
927 OAK/Hahn +105 1.00/1.05




HAYDUKE

7pm ET
907 WAS/Gonzalez +100 1.00/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

None



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
2-0 +2.40u
58-75 -8.11u 43.61%


HAYDUKE
0-1 -1.00u
46-57 -9.47u 44.66%


UMPIRES STREAKING
18-9 +5.68u 66.67%


Good night all


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

Just heads up NO Play on 2 early games:

1:45pm ET MIN/STL

2:10pm ET CO/HOU


Be back later


Ali

[mitch51]

Hello all

06.16.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
968 MIA/Phelps +100 1.00/1.00



HAYDUKE

3:30pm ET
958 SFG/Lincecum +110 1.00/1.10

4pm ET
959 ATL/Teheran +150 1.00/1.50

7pm ET
971 WAS/Roark +118 1.00/1.18

8pm ET
977 KC/Young -109 1.09/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

4pm ET
960 BOS/ATL UN 8.5 -105 1.05/1.00
ump-Carapazza 11bhp 2ov/8un 80% under

7pm ET
964 DET/CIN OV 9 +100 1.00/1.00
ump-Everitt 11bhp 6ov/4un 60% over



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

06.16.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
968 MIA/Phelps +100 1.00/1.00



HAYDUKE

3:30pm ET
958 SFG/Lincecum +110 1.00/1.10

4pm ET
959 ATL/Teheran +150 1.00/1.50

7pm ET
971 WAS/Roark +118 1.00/1.18

8pm ET
977 KC/Young -109 1.09/1.00




UMPIRES STREAKING

4pm ET
960 BOS/ATL UN 8.5 -105 1.05/1.00
ump-Carapazza 11bhp 2ov/8un 80% under

7pm ET
964 DET/CIN OV 9 +100 1.00/1.00
ump-Everitt 11bhp 6ov/4un 60% over



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
1-0 +1.00u
59-76 -7.11u 43.70%


HAYDUKE
3-1 +2.28u
49-58 -7.19u 45.79%


UMPIRES STREAKING
0-2 -2.05u
18-11 +3.63u 62.07%


Good night relaxing time


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

Hello all

06.17.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
911 BOS/Kelly +110 1.00/1.10



HAYDUKE

10pm ET
927 SFG/Bumgarner +125 1.00/1.25



UMPIRES STREAKING

7PM ET
906 NYY/MIA OV 7.5 -125 1.25/1.00
ump - Scott

914 CIN/DET UN 6.5 -105 1.05/1.00
ump - Timmons


10pm ET
930 LAD/TX OV 6 -110 1.10/1.00
ump - Fairchild



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

06.17.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
911 BOS/Kelly +110 1.00/1.10



HAYDUKE

10pm ET
927 SFG/Bumgarner +125 1.00/1.25



UMPIRES STREAKING

7PM ET
906 NYY/MIA OV 7.5 -125 1.25/1.00
ump - Scott

914 CIN/DET UN 6.5 -105 1.05/1.00
ump - Timmons


10pm ET
930 LAD/TX OV 6 -110 1.10/1.00
ump - Fairchild



GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
0-1 -1.00u
59-77 -8.11u 43.38%


HAYDUKE
0-1 -1.00u
49-59 -8.19u 45.37%


UMPIRES STREAKING
1-2 -1.30u
19-13 +2.33u 59.38%


Good night

Ali & Hayduke

[RollinDo]

I didn't know the umps were assigned for new series.
I played Under 6 in LAD and played LAD.
First time ever Kershaw lost at -200 odds or higher....not a great night for me.
I had SF and the Under in Cincy too.

[RollinDo]

I've got 4 nice - looking Unders for Thurs.

StL- Minn (U 8)...biggest issue will be Pelfry's day - game struggles in career....but this season an incredible job at Target Field. Cards are hitting Unders like crazy the last few weeks.

TB - Wash (U 7)*** Top Play***
Can't figure out the Even money for this one

Pitt - ChiSox (U 7.5)

Bos - AtL (U 7.5)...Line dropped overnight so if you can get it for -110 or better, worth a shot. Bucky better on road and Shelby lights out at home this season. Both teams not hitting a ton...no DH for BoSox...Ump tends slightly to Under.

[mitch51]

Good morning

06.18.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
970 ATL/Miller +105 1.00/1.05

10pm ET
979 SFG/Vogelsong +129 1.00/1.29


HAYDUKE

7pm ET
971 DET/Verlander +104 1.00/1.04


UMPIRES STREAKING

8pm ET
974 KC/MIL OVER 7.5 -110 1.10/1.00
ump-Nelson 13bhp 7ov/4un 63.6% Over

7pm ET
CLE/CUBS OVER 7.5 -115 1.15/1.00
ump-Randazzo 10bhp 6ov/4un 60.0% Over

10pm ET
978 LAD/TX UNDER 7 +110 1.00/1.10
ump-Hudson 12bhp 4ov/7un 63.6% Under




GLTA

Ali & Hayduke