Vonnegut Baseball 09

GetRich911 · 04-19-09, 10:50 AM

Vonnegut · 04-19-09, 05:28 PM

Well I am going to chalk them up now, no way Colorado comes back still came out with a profitable day.
Back Monday. Hope everyone had a profitable day.
Early lean on Baltimore+1.5 again tomorrow.

YTD
29-33 +2.54 units

Vonnegut · 04-20-09, 06:08 AM

Two plays for Monday.....

Cincinnati/Houston o8 -116
Baltimore+1.5 -107

YTD
29-33 +2.54 units

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-20-09, 04:07 PM

GL, it's time for the seasonal breakout. I am getting a little impatient, which you know is an awful trait in this game. I can't find any legit guy who is substantially over 500 with good positive units.

Pirates, Phillies and Rockies tonight

Vonnegut · 04-21-09, 07:19 AM

YTD 29-35 +.54 units

Back to the drawing board. But people can see the advantage to value betting, I am well below .500 this year and still am very slightly up.

mcbaseball10 · 04-21-09, 10:29 AM

Hey Von, good to hear from you! Had a night in the red last night. As long as we can stay in the black overall have to be pleased.

Question for you. When you bet on underdogs do you bet a unit or to win a unit? I have been betting to WIN a unit on dogs and favs but have seen others BET a unit...

Vonnegut · 04-21-09, 11:09 AM

Hi Mcbaseball.....all of my bets are one unit. So, for example, when I bet +160, I am betting one unit and it pays 1.6 units......when I bet an underdog, its the other way around, for example if I bet on a -120, I am betting one unit to win .8 units. I am a value bettor so I play alot of dogs and RL's.....I am not exactly a sharp, have only been betting on baseball seriously for about 4 years, so I am still learning, but I have managed to be profitable in 3 of those years. I try to find good values in lines and over valued home pitchers.
Good luck to you sir and hope you have a great season.

Vonnegut · 04-21-09, 11:24 AM

Tuesdays Plays

New York Mets +100....like the value on the Mets here today, St Louis coming off a long road trip, Perez threw well last time out and I think the Mets bats are due to get hot. The Mets have had great success W-L wise against the Cardinals and I feel like Wellemeyer is slightly over valued due to his great performance last time out against a very cold hitting Arizona squad. I still feel that St. Louis is playing a bit over their heads and that some of their young hitters are due for a cold streak, they seem to struggle a bit numbers wise against lefties which is a factor for me here too.

Chicago White Sox-1.5 +152.....Baltimore is struggling a bit after being swept in Boston and as a young team I like to fade them when they hit losing streaks. Contreras can definitely keep them in this game, and the Sox bats are really hot, averaging 6.3 runs per game on the road this year. O's bullpen has been brutal, Sox bullpen has been sharp. Contreras is 7-4 lifetime against Baltimore and I will fade the rookie pitcher Bergeson here and take the hot bats. I dont think the Sox get a sweep here but I will take my chances that their bats stay hot and fade this O's bullpen.

Minnesota+150....Baker was very sharp against the Red Sox last July tossing a real gem over 7 innings. Wakefield on the other hand is a pitcher who can go out there a pitch a real gem or really implode. I think Baker is the better pitcher here, so I will take the big number and hope he repeats his performance last time out in Boston. Hate fading the Red Sox but this number is very enticing and I think the Twinks have a shot at an upset here. If the Twins can get to Wakefield early and Baker can keep them in the game we have a good chance.

Detroit-1.5 +163....IMHO Galaragga is the best pitcher on the Tigers staff and very undervalued here. The Angels seem a bit demoralized right now, and Detroit is just starting to heat up. I still think that with the tragic death of Adenhart that the Angels are a bit out of synch. Biggest thing here for me however is Weavers struggles at home against the Tigers in the past, I think the Tigs are in a good position to steal the first one at home and with their powerful lineup I will take a shot on the RL.

MrMonkey · 04-21-09, 11:42 AM

Good luck today Vonn! Don't know the bases but was going to start betting May 1st! Been following you and 2 others and can tell this stuff is hard! Probably have to tail someone!

MrMonkey

mcbaseball10 · 04-21-09, 12:28 PM

Thanks Von, I will visit your thread throughout the year as I did in NCAA BB. Here's to a long profitable baseball season

Vonnegut · 04-22-09, 06:08 AM

Ewwww. Peee-ewwww? Whats that smell? Thats me, stinking up the place with my horrible performance the last week, including an epic 0 fer 3 last night. Despite the fact a blind retarded monkey could pick better than me right now, I am only down 2.5 units and can easily turn this puppy around. Have been here before and righted the ship.

YTD
29-38 -2.46 units

Wednesday Plays

Florida+100
Florida/Pittsburgh o7.5 -123
Arizona-1.5 +126
San Diego-118

cocknocker · 04-22-09, 10:00 AM

Keep on betting positive money wagers and you will definitely turn it around. All that it takes is to win two out of 4 and you will be fine. Idiots who are just cruising for a winner don't understand the value of what you are doing, but i do. Keep up the good work

Vonnegut · 04-23-09, 05:56 AM

YTD 31-40 -2.42 units

Cocknocker thank you sir. A vote of confidence from a great capper like you is nice to hear, especially when I am struggling a tad.

Thursday I have 3 early plays to start....

New York Mets (action) +123
Cleveland-111
Cincinnati +151

BOL to all

Vonnegut · 04-23-09, 05:09 PM

add

Tampa Bay/Seattle u7.5 -113
Toronto team total o4.5 -110

Vonnegut · 04-23-09, 07:39 PM

add

Detroit/Los Angeles o9.5 -111

TheLock · 04-23-09, 09:41 PM

good start to the over in LAA

2-0 DET and they're threatening in the top 2nd

Vonnegut · 04-24-09, 04:19 AM

Great night last night, turned the ship around 5-1. Will post some evening plays around 6pm.

YTD 36-41 +1.44 units

reno cool · 04-24-09, 05:22 AM

Reds was a good one for me too today. Got to like strong starting pitching and + odds. Feel like I've been betting them every day lately.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-24-09, 05:22 AM

It's starting to turn around. Good your head down and follow thru.

Vonnegut · 04-24-09, 05:16 PM

YTD 36-41 +1.44 units

Friday Picks

New York Mets team total o5 -109
Texas+123
Minnesota/Cleveland u10 -110
Cincinnati-1.5 +198

Good luck all

Vonnegut · 04-24-09, 08:49 PM

add

Pittsburgh +116
Tampa Bay -126

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 07:33 AM

YTD 39-44 +1.33 units

Saturday Wagers

Chicago Cubs-108
Milwaukee/Houston o10 -107
Florida-1.5 +154
Chicago White Sox-1.5 +123
Detroit +112

Good luck all

diogee · 04-25-09, 08:11 AM

Good luck Von...looking towards the Tigers and Cubbies.

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 11:02 AM

Thanks diogee. Hoping for a good day today.

adding

Cincinnati team total o4 -112

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 06:24 PM

add

Arizona-1.5 +149
Pittsburgh-1.5 +190

mcbaseball10 · 04-25-09, 06:40 PM

Vonn..Been really looking hard at the Zona -1.5 tonight. Although I don't like RL that much the payout seems very nice. Think Johnson gives up some runs to them tonight.

Vonnegut · 04-25-09, 06:45 PM

Yeah I think Scherzer will pitch well against the Giants tonight and from what I have seen of Johnson he isnt throwing very well. Hopefully the Dbacks get er done tonight.

Vonnegut · 04-26-09, 12:19 AM

4-4 tonight +1.72 units

YTD 43-48 +3.05 units

Vonnegut · 04-26-09, 08:20 AM

YTD 43-48 +3.05 units

Sunday Choices

Washington+172....fading Oliver Perez a bit here, I think the Nats are worth a shot at this number today. Nats can hit lefties a little better, some bats might have good days. Washington seems to hit lefties a bit better and I think Zimmermann is talented enough to hold the Mets in check. Washington is plus units vs the Mets the last 3 years and I think they are in a great position to steal one at this number.

Cincinnati+106....I keep putting my hand into the fire and getting burned by these Reds but I think Kawakami is meat and the Reds will score some runs off him today. Like the Reds to avoid the home sweep. McCann still out and the Braves pen is due to implode any day now. Home dog factor. Owings has been particularily solid vs the Braves, couple that with the home team trying to avoid the sweep and I will take the plus money even though I will be accused of playing "square".

Chicago Cubs-1.5 +141....the Cardinals have been a thorn in my side all year as I keep fading them and they keep winning. Like Harden over Wellemeyer here today, Wellemayer was shelled at home and Harden has been good on the road, I think the Cubs have a better team and a better lineup and they avoid the sweep today.

Colorado+118....same deal as the Reds here, home plus money avoiding sweep with a pitcher who has been traditionally solid against the Dodgers. Not much to explain here, going to home dog angle. Kershaw was bad last time out and has bad numbers against the Rockies, Marquis has been solid give me the home dawg.

Cleveland-1.5 +157....Cleveland shellacks lefties statistically and Laffey has pitched well so far this year. Basically playing Cleveland against ANY lefty starter until they prove me wrong and fading Minnesota sweeping on the road as Cleveland is 13-6 against Minnesota the last 3 years.

Vonnegut · 04-26-09, 02:19 PM

add

Los Angeles Angels-1.5 +140

johnnymapalo · 04-26-09, 05:09 PM

Good hits!!! You swept the boards today...

The Royals phucked me in the bottom of the 9th with that solo homerun.. That's why I was scared of playing Detroit on the road. Their hitting is suspect..

Rick22 · 04-26-09, 05:12 PM

Grate day Vonn - keep it up pal............

Rick22 · 04-26-09, 05:12 PM

I meant great.

Vonnegut · 04-26-09, 05:23 PM

Thanks Rick and Johnny. 6-0 is pretty good, I may sound a little cocky but I was due to have that kind of a day. You can really pick up units quick having a few good days on RL's.

6-0 +8.34 units

YTD
49-48 +11.39 units

TheLock · 04-26-09, 06:09 PM

Have yourself a day Von