RollinDo's Under Run Totals - 2014 Tracker

[RollinDo]

Thanks man. I guess I should check multiple sites for wind conditions.

[inZane]

I don't know what site you use, but here's a couple of my favorites:

http://www.baseball-weather.com/#baseball_weather_notes

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

Both are updated throughout the day, and the second one will give you an hourly forecast if you click on to the individual game you're interested in.

[robbeduagain]

On a dry spell lately. So is life as an Under bettor.

Today I have a lot of strong plays, but worried that I have been confident lately and losing often.

Top Unders:
Texas - Oakland (U 7.5)
StL - NY Mets (U 7)
Cincy-Pitt (Under 7.5)

Leans:
SF (Under 4.5)

Top Sides:
Oakland
TB
Milwaukee
Washington (Top Play)
Philly - LA (Under 7)

Outstanding job today!

[RollinDo]

Won't make much of anything if this LA game goes Over 7.
Was 2-1 with 2 outs in bottom of 7th.
Dodgers bats finally wake up when I don't play them.

[RollinDo]

Push. I'll take it!

Unders for today: 3-1-1
YTD: 25-17-6

Back on track...better think twice about playing an Under at Coors Field...geez!

[RollinDo]

I'll be taking a break tomorrow guys...need some rest...mind has been on these plays most of the day...gotta enjoy other things once in a while.

[RollinDo]

Leans for Unders tonight (Friday):

LA Angels - NY (Under 4.5 - 1st 5)
Cincy - ATL (Under 7)
Boston (Under 4)

Sides:
Nats ML / Giants -1
Portland Blazers (ML)

[robbeduagain]

I love the LAA/NYY play. Both pitchers have had a lot of success against their opponent. I wouldn't trust either bullpen, but the starters should go at least 6 innings. That may become one of my plays. Hope you don't mind

[RollinDo]

Why the heck would I mind Robbed?
I want you to win too man.
Also think about Red Sox (Under 4 runs)
They hit lousy vs lefties and Buehrle has been a beast at home this year and last...only 1 ER so far at home. Even if Boston gets 4, it's a push.

[RollinDo]

Definitely sticking to my Under plays listed above...really like them today.

[IrishLuck777]

do you count everything as 1 unit? also do you count your leans into your record? thanks!

[RollinDo]

do you count everything as 1 unit? also do you count your leans into your record? thanks!

No, I do not count my leans and would probably have a better win % if I did.
I update my record with what I actually wager...need to do a better job of confirming my plays before games start. I know nobody is insinuating that I falsify my record (and maybe it doesn't 100% reflect my posts...not sure), but I have no reason to make my record better than it is. If anything I heed caution to anyone tailing me, as I do not watch any games...heck, never seen King Felix or Jose Fernandez pitch before.
No, some plays are a bit bigger than others...I have a funky method of betting that includes IF bets with totals and sides.
Trying more to play everything around 1 unit though.

[IrishLuck777]

thanks for the info! i was wanting to tail and just trying to figure out what exactly youre playing and how big. thanks again and gl!

[RollinDo]

Ok. The one game I'm wavering on, but think I've decided is the Bos-Tor game.
I believe 9 run is too high here. I recall the Under hitting more times than not in Toronto ' s home games with Buehrle starting.
I was going to play Boston (Under 4), which may still hit, but assuming Sox score 3, I don't see BluJays winning by more than 2 runs. I think Peavy will rebound from a poor showing vs Baltimore and Boston needs this one. Bullpen for Red Sox also great, so if Buehrle gets roughed up some, Blue Jays hitting worse in innings 7-9 so runs will be tough. Boston only scoring 3 rpg on road, but only allowing 3 rpg.
I think this is like a 4-3 or 5-4 game at worst.
Bos-Tor (Under 9.5) -137

Play #2:
LA Angels - NY Yanks (Under 4.5 - 1st 5)
Wilson has been great on the road and in his last 4 in Yankee stadium, has around a 2.00 ERA.
Kuroda is better at home and hopefully will hold Angels to a couple through 5.
A little chilly too in the Bronx tonight too.

Play 3:
Cincy - Atlanta (Under 7)
This to me all hinges on Homer for Reds. I don't seem to have great success betting in games he starts. I believe in Santana having another sharp outting and Braves pen is superb.

Play 4: (If bet)
A) SF Giants -1
B) Parlay: Nats ML / Cards +2.5
C) Atlanta +1.5 / Flyers +1

Now the (B) and (C) games may be pretty much decided by start of SF game...In event that those last 2 parlays hit, will bet 1 unit on Cleveland +1.5

Play 5: Parlay
Blackhawks +1 / Anaheim +1/2 (reg.)
+110 odds
I have Blues at +500 to win Western Conf. so this is partially a hedge bet.

[RollinDo]

Well, my Under plays were just bad tonight...sorry for bombing out.
1-2 tonight.
YTD Under plays: 27-19-6

Fortunately looks like a good night for my IF bet if SF hangs on and wins by more than 1...and if Ducks are at least tied at end of 3rd.

[IrishLuck777]

glad i played the hockey!

[RollinDo]

YTD Under plays: 27-19-6

Think I'm going with Brewers (Under 3)
With Segura and Braun out of line-up, will be tough to produce runs against Wacha, who is not at his best form yet, but if he manages control, should have a good chance to go 7 strong innings of maybe 1 run.
Think he'll be pumped for this one...was leaning Under 7, but Gallardo has struggled vs Cards in past and may have a hard time. Cards do very well vs Milwaukee and may have their bats ready to KO Gallardo, who us typically better at home, though he has been impressive on road too.
Under 7 might be a good shot though if you think Gallardo will have a quality start, as Brewers pen is very solid.

[RollinDo]

Late post....sorry.
Oak-TX (Under 8.5)
Still have Milwaukee (Under 3)

[robbeduagain]

Gl Rollin

[RollinDo]

1-1 last night.
Wacha fizzled in the 7th.

YTD: 28-20-6

Will break through this mini funk.

[RollinDo]

Leans for Tues.
Oak-TX (Under 8)
ATL - Mia (Under 3.5 - 1st 5) -150
Mil - StL (Under 4 - 1st 5) -135

[RollinDo]

Well, I forgot to confirm my plays, but last night only lean I didn't play was the one that hit.

YTD Under record: 28-22-6

Today I have 4 leans:
Atl-Miami (Under 7)
TB-BoSox(Under 8.5)
Houston (Under 3.5)
Whoever KC is playing (Under 3.5)

Sides I like:
SF with Hudson
Cards with Miller
Nats with Zim
O's with Tillman

[RollinDo]

Just 2 Under plays.

1) AtL-Mia (Under 7.5)...not sure why odds are do good here...I missed out the last time these guys went head to head.

2) Toronto Jays (Under 3.5)
Ventura on the hill tonight as this will be 1st look at him for Jays.
Maybe a 4-2 kinda game favoring Royals.

[RollinDo]

Parlay: Nats +1.5 / SF ML (+120 odds)
Then if win, got Tigers ML from today. (If Bet)

[robbeduagain]

I'm considering playing the Rangers/A's under again. Don't know if I want to put myself through that.

[robbeduagain]

Scratch that. Don't think so

[RollinDo]

Scratch that. Don't think so

Good idea. While it may hit, there are better Unders for another day. I feel good about the Jays Under. The Atlanta - Miami one I'm leary of because of line movement tending to the Over. But I'll take my chances.

[Just Enough]

Just 2 Under plays.

1) AtL-Mia (Under 7.5)...not sure why odds are do good here...I missed out the last time these guys went head to head.

2) Toronto Jays (Under 3.5)
Ventura on the hill tonight as this will be 1st look at him for Jays.
Maybe a 4-2 kinda game favoring Royals.

i like that jays under....GL

[robbeduagain]

Good idea. While it may hit, there are better Unders for another day. I feel good about the Jays Under. The Atlanta - Miami one I'm leary of because of line movement tending to the Over. But I'll take my chances.

Yes, I would have trouble supporting the Braves/Marlins under. Harang has to regress to the center eventually

[superbowl3056]

Rollin you feelin the Tribe/Halos under at all? No Kipnis for the Tribe, they won't hit Wilson well, McAllisters pitching on three days rest but hes been great so far, and winds blowing in at 20 mph. Why is the over getting the juice?

[RollinDo]

Rollin you feelin the Tribe/Halos under at all? No Kipnis for the Tribe, they won't hit Wilson well, McAllisters pitching on three days rest but hes been great so far, and winds blowing in at 20 mph. Why is the over getting the juice?

I'm not sure man. I considered this game...maybe Angels horrible pen?
If I had to bet on this, I would go either Angels -1, Under 4.5 (1st 5), or probably best bet is Indians (Under 4). They do not hit lefties well...and don't think they score 5 on Halos unless Wilson just doesn't have it.
Remember I am not feeling it lately though.

[inZane]

Rollin you feelin the Tribe/Halos under at all? No Kipnis for the Tribe, they won't hit Wilson well, McAllisters pitching on three days rest but hes been great so far, and winds blowing in at 20 mph. Why is the over getting the juice?

Maybe because the Angels are 10-1 to the over so far this year at home...

[RollinDo]

Well, just as I mentioned, really liked the Jays Under 3.5 (which hit) and not too confident about the Braves - Marlins Under. Figures that when I get on the Harang wagon, he throws his famous "hit my beachball" games. I swear last year when I faded the dude, he threw a gem and when I backed him he got blasted.

YTD Under record: 29-23-6
May take a break from these for a few days unless I see something that really stands out.

Been hitting parlays nicely, though I got screwed last night with that Giants last second pitching change.

[RollinDo]

Hoping Giants win to complete my IF bet parlay I posted.
I did hedge slightly with Padres +1, so hoping for a 1 - run victory for SF.

I tell ya the Nats, Tigers, and Giants have been good to me so far this season in the right spots.

[RollinDo]

Taking a day off today. Just have one nba bet pending for tonight. Good day yesterday though Unders are a grind lately.