[TPowell]

21-29 (-$250)

If you aren't keeping track, I've been terrible this season. Have hit fantastic openers and had tons of line value but haven't been able to cash in very often. Ton of bad beats yadda yadda, you guys don't really care but whatever. I hit Kansas +3.5 LIVE and -1 2H for 5 standard bets and came up big. That is why you see me down only $250 with that awful record. (I'll link the threads later where you'll believe me).


I'm not here to compare rooster sizes with wager amounts or to have you tail my plays. Just here to provide information and discuss hoops.

[TPowell]

Important to bet very small in college hoops for me because I tend to play a ton of games right away. I tend to see a lot of value early on. I'll be playing off BetOnline openers when possible and I also have 5Dimes for reduced juice

[TPowell]

IPFW +6.5 (-110) $27.50 to win $25


1. I plan on adding more on it at reduced juice tomorrow


So IPFW is a very solid team. They have 7 of their top 8 back from LY and 3 were FR. They shot the ball from 3 last year at an amazing clip and were a top 20 shooting team in the country. I played them +15 against Arkansas earlier this season and they covered, losing by 9. In that game, they had 21 offensive rebounds and only shot 39% from the field. They rebounded over 40% of their misses. Arkansas shot nearly 60% from the field but still couldn't cover the spread. IPFW rebounded shooting wise in their last game and shot 65% from the field against some scrub D2 team and made 11-20 3's. Arkansas isn't a great defensive rebounding for sure, but 40% is an amazing number for a team that is a solid shooting bunch. They get Illinois State on the road here getting a good amount of points. They put up a good fight against Murray State on the road in the opener and pushed the +3 line they were getting. Ill. State has been a defensive oriented slow paced team for the past few years and have struggled shooting the ball. I'm banking on their solid shooting display against Murray State not being normal and even if so, I'm not sure it will be enough to cover against a very underrated IPFW team.

[TPowell]

Marshall -3 (-120) $30 to win $25


Adding more at reduced juice tomorrow just want to lock in SOME on price


Marshall has been beaten soundly by Morehead State in back-to-back seasons. This is year 3 under the "fun and gun" style of Dan D'Antoni and he has some players that have experience in his system finally. That is huge because playing that fast is really stupid in general but IF done intelligently, you can force others into errors. Marshall lives off of playing extremely fast and scoring in the paint which they did at a crazy efficient level last season. They lost their leading scorer from last season but 4 other starters are back. Statistically, Morehead State weren't very good at defending the paint last season and had zero shot blocking inside. They've blocked 8 shots in 2 games this season but they played Lipscomb and a D2 school (4 in each game). I don't buy them having a presence inside because the guy with the most blocks is a guy that played sparingly last season and wasn't a huge shot blocker then (he's a SR now). Marshall should be able to go up and down and score in the paint pretty easily here. Morehead State will probably be able to do the same thing though. What I love about this Marshall team this year is that if they JUST go inside more, they'll be light years better. They were ranked #3 in the country last year at scoring inside the 3 point line but took the 246th least 2 pointers in D1 basketball. In the first game this season, they were much more well balanced and I expect that to continue.

[TPowell]

That looks like it for tomorrow. Very small card. Few lines that are creeping a little high but would still have to evaluate. Going to make my preliminary numbers for Thursday now though

[TPowell]

ADDING: IPFW +6.5 (-105) $15.75 to win $15


$40-$50 will be a normal bet sadly. I just can't justify putting $100 on games and having 8-10 games going every night there is a decent card (Saturday's would be way more). Variance will and would have killed me if I did that very long.

[TPowell]

Few early openers for Thursday. Bummed I missed Charleston -2 at the open but -3 is still a good price. Will try to do some write-ups later on

Michigan -1 (-110) $27.50 to win $25
Charleston -3 (-115) $28.75 to win $25
San Jose State -2 (-110) $27.50 to win $25

[TPowell]

ADDING: Marshall -3 (-105) $15.75 to win $15

[TPowell]

Charleston up to 7.5. I made the game 8 so I def may try to middle if the line gets much higher. Michigan line flipped but not bad

[KDF500]

IPFW looking brutal. Down 17 at half.

[TPowell]

That sucks, 1-1 for the night. IPFW just didn't do anything well. They didn't shoot the ball well at all for a good shooting team like they are. They also got beat on the off glass and on TO's. No chance you can cover any spread doing that. Moving on

[TPowell]

22-30 $-253.25

[Louisvillekid1]

Keep grinding

[TPowell]

Temple +4 (-104) $26 to win $25


Temple should be able to do a lot of things to make UMass uncomfortable in this game. Their youth worries me but they are always well coached by Dunphy and as long as they don't turn the ball over and let UMass run and gun, they should be able to frustrate them in the half court and pick up the win here.

[TPowell]

Clemson -3.5 (-105) $26.25 to win $25


Cheapest I could get at -3 was -118 so didn't think that half point was worth 13 cents even though the 3 is the biggest push number in basketball games

[TPowell]

Second half middle attempt

Davidson -1.5 (-110) $27.50 to win $25


Think Davidson will fight back into this game. Doing great job on offensive glass. Just need to cut back on turnovers and make some shots and this game will get tight IMO

[TPowell]

That sucks, made a winner a push there


Pittsburgh +4 (-101) $25.25 to win $25



Most assume Pitt won't be as good as last year for some reason. Stallings isn't that bad of a coach. The talent should be better on the floor and I think it'll show. SMU lost their coach as well and one of the best ever but the ass. got the job so it isn't a factor. Still, hard to see SMU being any better than last season IMO

[TPowell]

South Florida +5 (-115) $28.75 to win $25

[TPowell]

Duquesne -3.5 (-110) $38.50 to win $35
Ohio +3 (-115) $40.25 to win $35

[Louisvillekid1]

Yo this team is special man, I'll argue its better than our national title squad a few years back just younger. Not sure who's gonna leave early, but with these 4 recruits coming next year, it will be our strongest roster I can remember.

[TPowell]

Yo this team is special man, I'll argue its better than our national title squad a few years back just younger. Not sure who's gonna leave early, but with these 4 recruits coming next year, it will be our strongest roster I can remember.

I have a lot of questions with this team though. I'm not sure Mitchell or Adel are solid enough 3 point shooters to be shooting too many. Their mid range games are better than anyone else I've seen at Louisville though. Inside, I worry about us running into physical teams because even Mangok isn't the strongest guy in the paint and Anas/Stockman just can't deal with it either. I like the fact that we're running but we're still turning it over way too much. All that said, we look very good against the opposition this season. We'll def know more after Atlantis.

[Louisvillekid1]

Snider has become one of the top pg's in the nation, we are such a different team when he is on the court. Our frontline 'strength' is in our depth.

And im looking to the future on how we gonna be come jan-march

This class might be pitino's best ever coming in also

Great time to be 'ville fan, my brother...

3 hours until the lamar jackson show

[TPowell]

Good news on the Ohio spread. We got +3, granted it was -115 but Ohio is now -1 in some shops

[TPowell]

Missed a couple. Liked Minny at the opener of -5 but thought it would last. I made it -9 and its up to -7 unfortunately.

[Louisvillekid1]

Stop letting the market influence you so much, stick with your intuition, you have the work ethic and knowledge, don't be so result oriented...

i know we clash and I'm a nobody, but I was there a few years ago... starring at lines, trying to follow sharp $, until I realized my money is sharp money, & if it isn't atlesst I went down w/ the ship...

not preaching, just real talk...

[TPowell]

Stop letting the market influence you so much, stick with your intuition, you have the work ethic and knowledge, don't be so result oriented...

i know we clash and I'm a nobody, but I was there a few years ago... starring at lines, trying to follow sharp $, until I realized my money is sharp money, & if it isn't atlesst I went down w/ the ship...

not preaching, just real talk...

I'm not letting the market influence me perse'. I'm just making these lines, checking what he is available, and then doing my normal game breakdown. I feel like good results are ahead for sure. I got a little number crazy to start the year and I paid for it. I had better numbers sure, but they didn't cash. I didn't do some of the work that I should have into each game. Team A is -5 against Team B? Well, Team A should be -9 and I don't see any injuries on either side so it has to be good. For the most part, it wasn't. Have to start using my numbers as a guide and not the be all end all for sure

[Louisvillekid1]

I don't agree w/ trying to make to comparative lines, I know I know, don't try to duplicate the market , just be the market...

the market doesnt know, what I know as far as rivals and coaches, fukk the computer...

i know this game, coaching is everything

[TPowell]

I don't agree w/ trying to make to comparative lines, I know I know, don't try to duplicate the market , just be the market...

the market doesnt know, what I know as far as rivals and coaches, fukk the computer...

i know this game, coaching is everything

true but you can buy yourself extra points on the spread by knowing what lines should be ya know? Use your numbers to determine market value and then find your own edges/angles

[BigDofBA]

Good luck

[TPowell]

2-2 split early on. Michigan should cash and SJSU is pending. Tied late in 1st half giving 2

[TPowell]

SJSU doesn't come through. Frustrating 3-3 night. Would have been profitable if I hadn't tried for the middle in the Clemson game. Was at the computer at work and it looked good though

NCAAB: 26-34 -$264.75

[TPowell]

UTEP +4.5 (-105) $36.75 to win $35



Good spot with a good coach against a young WMU team that is overhyped after playing Nova kind of close. UTEP not as bad as last performance and WMU not as good.

[TPowell]

Hard lean to Clemson but can't get +3 now and they have been HORRIBLE at cleaning the def glass so far this year. Xavier COULD have 20 offensive rebounds in this game

[TPowell]

Pittsburgh +1.5 (-107) $32.10 to win $30



Hard to convince me that Pitt is THIS bad or Marquette is THIS good. The Vandy game wasn't an accurate representation of how good Marquette is. Pitt didn't play bad against SMU. They missed the cover by 4 points or so. Their performance wasn't bad, but I'm scared of 3 guys on Pitt playing 35+ minutes in that game yesterday. Could be some fatigue today for them. You just can't convince me that Pitt is a worse team than Marquette on a neutral floor.

[TPowell]

Austin Peay +2 (-105) $36.75 to win $35