UFC 301 Odds - Latest Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Lines

Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg headline Saturday's UFC 301 main event with the flyweight title at stake, and we're taking a look at the UFC 301 odds and betting lines from our best UFC betting sites.

Brazilian flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja aims to defend his title against Steve Erceg at UFC 301 this Saturday, and he's been showcasing his dominance in the division since his victory over Brandon Moreno in July 2023. The highly anticipated bout will take place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Having already successfully defended his belt against Brandon Royval with a unanimous decision victory in December, Pantoja is poised to showcase his skills again. UFC 301 promises an action-packed night of fights featuring a total of 14 Brazilian fighters on the card.

While it may not generate the same level of hype as we discussed in the McGregor vs. Chandler odds, UFC 301 still offers an exciting lineup of matchups and top-tier athletes. The event starts with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

Here’s our breakdown of the UFC 301 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best sports betting sites).

UFC 301 odds - Main Card

(Odds updated May 4)

Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve Erceg (12-1)

Pantoja has a chance to defend his flyweight belt for the second time in front of the home crowd on Saturday. DraftKings offers the best line on the champ, with a 64.91% implied win percentage that would profit $5.41 on a winning $10 wager.

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Jonathan Martinez (19-4) vs. Jose Aldo (31-8)

Martinez's six-fight win streak is on the line when he takes on Aldo on Saturday. "Junior" Aldo is one of the older fighters on the card, at 37 years old, and he's +125 at bet365 to pick up the underdog victory. The line implies a 44.44% win probability and returns a profit of $12.50 on a winning $10 wager.

Anthony Smith (37-19) vs. Vitor Petrino (11-0)

Vitor Petrino has won all 11 of his professional bouts, including four straight since arriving at the UFC level. Oddsmakers expect more of the same on Saturday, where his -470 line at DraftKings profits just $2.13 on a $10 bet and has an 82.46% implied win probability.

Michel Pereira (30-11) vs. Ihor Potieria (21-5)

Another fighter who will look to benefit from home cooking is Pereira, although he may not have to rely on the home crowd. Pereira hasn't lost since 2000, with decisions, submission, and knockouts along the way. His shortest odds are -600 across our best sportsbooks, and a winning $10 wager results in just a $1.67 profit with an 85.71% implied win probability.

Paul Craig (17-7-1) vs. Caio Borralho (15-1)

The main card gets underway with a steep test for the Scottish fighter Craig, who has lost three of his last four bouts. Borralho has just one loss on his professional record, in 2015, when he was in the Bradar Fight promotion. His best line is -600 at bet365, which has an 85.71% implied win probability and profits $1.67 on a $10 wager.

UFC 301 odds - Prelims

Jack Shore (17-1) vs. Joanderson Brito (16-3-1)

Shore may have just one loss on his professional resume, but he's a slight underdog versus Brito on Saturday. "Tubarao" Brito is a well-rounded fighter who has alternated KO/TKO and submission victories over his last four fights and hasn't been out of the second round along that span. His -170 line at bet365 carries a 62.96% implied win probability and pays $15.88 on a $10 bet if he pulls out the win.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (15-5)

Lucindo is 16 years younger and has a two-inch reach advantage over her competitor. Her -395 line at DraftKings stands out in a market where she is lined at -400 or shorter at our other best sports betting sites. She has a 79.8% win probability and profits an even $2.53 on a $10 bet. 

Elves Brener (16-4) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1)

Brener brings a five-fight win streak into this bout, although only three have come at the UFC level. Orolbai carries his own seven-fight win streak, although only one was in the UFC. The Kyrgyzstan fighter has gone to the judges only once since 2020 and is lined at -245 at DraftKings. That line comes with a $3.94 profit on a $10 wager and carries a 71.75% implied win percentage.

UFC 301 odds - Early prelims

Joaquim Silva (13-5) vs. Drakkar Klose (14-2-1)

Silva has struggled in recent bouts, with just two wins in his last five fights. Naturally, he's an underdog despite fighting at home in Brazil, and the best line you can get him at is the +170 at DraftKings, where a $10 bet profits $17, although he has just a 37.04% implied win percentage.

Mauricio Ruffy (9-1) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (17-7)

Mullarkey was an active fighter in 2023, going 2-2 with two unanimous decision wins and two KO/TKO losses. However, this is his first trip to the Octagon in 2024, and oddsmakers aren't convinced. Ruffy's best odds are -218 at DraftKings, which comes with a $4.59 profit on a $10 bet and has a 68.55% implied win probability.

Dione Barbosa (6-2) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1)

Barbosa is making her UFC debut after last fighting in DWCS in September. The 31-year-old Brazilan fighter, nicknamed "The Witch", is a relatively heavy favorite over the much younger Kareckaite. The -238 line at DraftKings has implied win odds of 70.41% and pays $14.20 on a winning $10 wager for a profit of $4.20.

Ismael Bonfim (19-4) vs. Vinc Pichel (14-3)

Pichel is the only fighter north of 40 years old on this card, giving up 13 years to the 28-year-old Bonfim. Bonfim is the first of many fighters on the night lined at -550 or steeper, profiting just $1.82 with a victory on a $10 bet on that line that comes with an implied win of 84.62%.

Alessandro Costa (13-4) vs. Kevin Borjas (9-2)

UFC 301 gets underway with two fighters looking to return to the win column after losing their last fights. "Nono" Costa is 1-2 in the UFC since making the jump in 2022 but is a slight favorite over the contender Borjas. The -120 line at Caesars is the best available on the local boy, with a 54.55% implied win probability and paying $18.33 on a $10 wager.

UFC 301 fight info

• When: Saturday, May 4
• Where: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• How to watch: Early Prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET); Prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET); Main Card on Pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET)

How to read UFC betting odds

Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:

• Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
• Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profit + $150 original stake).

Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:

• Fighter A: +200
• Fighter B: -180

For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.

Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.

Here are our best UFC betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)