🏒 Sabres vs. Bruins Prediction & Odds: Game 3 NHL Picks Today (April 23)
The Boston Bruins and Buffalo Sabres head to Beantown tonight with the series split at one game apiece. Puck drop from TD Garden in Boston is set for 7 p.m. ET, airing on TNT/truTV and streaming on HBO Max; oddsmakers have the game lined as a pick 'em.
My Sabres vs. Bruins prediction break down why the Bruins will pick up a win and steal home-ice advantage in the series. I'm also going to dive into my favorite player prop for the game and building out my favorite SGP.
🏒 Sabres vs. Bruins picks & odds today: Apriil 23
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins moneyline (-110 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | Home-ice advantage should propel Boston to a victory and a series lead |
| Under 6 (-105 via bet365) | 0.5u → 0.48u | Jeremy Swayman is red hot, both games finished at six with flukey goals |
| Conor Timmins Over 1.5 blocked shots (+110 via bet365) | 0.5u → 0.55u | Blocked over two shots per game across 39 regular-season games |
| Jonathan Aspirot Over 1.5 blocked shots (-110 via bet365) | 0.5u -> 0.46u | Defense-first blueliner who doesn't hesitate to block shots |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.95 units
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🏆 Who will win Sabres vs. Bruins?
We banked on veteran leadership and Jeremy Swayman in game two for the Bruins to get the series split. Tonight, we add home ice advantage. The Bruins will finally have the home team behind them, while the Sabres won't have the intense energy of KeyBank Center to feed off late in the game if they're trailing, as they have in the first two games.
Buffalo might actually be staring down a goalie "controversy" tonight, as Alex Lyon might make the start after coming on for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the third period of Game 2. That's never what you want mid-series.
Score prediction: Bruins 3, Sabres 1
🤑 More NHL playoff predictions
Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his Hurricanes vs. Senators prediction to get you set for Game 3.
💰 Sabres vs. Bruins prediction & best bet
Bruins moneyline (-110)
Swayman has been incredible in this series, posting a .932 save percentage. That number isn't an aberration - he posted nearly the save figure (.933) across 12 games last time he was in the playoffs.
Boston goaded Buffalo into a physical, testy battle in Game 2. That's a style of play that suits the Bruins a lot more than it does the speedy Sabres. Boston has jumped out to a lead in both games, it just did a better job holding on in Game 2.
This is lined as a pick 'em but I'm happy with it to the -125 range.
🔥 Best Sabres vs. Bruins player prop bet
Conor Timmins Over 1.5 blocked shots (+110)
Boston stepped up its shots from 20 to 27 between the opener and Game 2, and it should have extra pep in its step in front of the home crowd. Plenty of opportunity for blocked shots, and to cash this prop.
Timmins finished the regular season with an elite-level 2.1 blocked shots per game, 18th in the league. Through two games in this series, he's posted two blocked shots and five blocked shots. Throughout the regular season, he started 19.8% of his shifts in the defensive zone (18.4% in the postseason) and 15.5% in the neutral zone (21.1% in the postseason), and those are the types of numbers that are going to see you picking up defensive assignments frequently.
He'll have to put it on the line even more tonight, and at plus-money, it's my favorite angle to take as a player prop.
🚀 Sabres vs. Bruins same-game parlay
For our SGP tonight, we're going to roll with the Bruins moneyline and the two player props we listed above. The moneyline pick 'em odds give a solid base for the parlay, and both Timmins and Jonathan Aspirot to have 2+ blocked shots brings us to a solid +650 at bet365.
It's a shame Aspirot has moved to -110, as we've cashed this prop at plus-money in both games in Buffalo. Aspirot has seven blocks through two games, as someone has to slow the Sabres.
I like to place my SGPs there as it offers some of the best sportsbook promos.
💵 Sabres vs. Bruins SGP picks
- Bruins moneyline (-110)
- Conor Timmins Over 1.5 blocked shots (+110)
- Jonathan Aspirot Over 1.5 blocked shots (-110).
Best odds: +650 via bet365 (0.25u -> 1.63u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 3.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-32-1 | +3.7 units ✅ | 12.0% ✅ |
| Moneyline picks | 5-5 | +0.14 units ✅ | 2.1% ✅ |
| Total (Over/Under) picks | 5-7-1 | -1.69 units ❌ | -21.8% ❌ |
| Player props | 10-9 | +3.56 units ✅ | 31.0% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-9 | +1.39 units ✅ | 52.4% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Sabres vs. Bruins
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
We mostly nailed Games 1 and 2 in this series, but could have done better in both if not for very fortuitous goals costing us hitting the Under both games. It's a real good reminder that, no matter how good of a feel you have for a line crazy things can happen in sports. Luukkonen allowed Morgan Geekie to score from center ice in Game 2, which ultimately cost us a full-sweep with a push on the total. I mean, it wasn't even really a shot.
So that's why we're sticking to just our normal two unit payout, no matter how good we feel, it's important to stick to your plans and ride with consistency.
📊 Live Sabres vs. Bruins odds: Game 3
As we've seen all series, the best sports betting sites have been pretty happy with their opening lines, with just minimal movement. This game opened with Buffalo -115 / Boston -105, but it was quickly moved to -110/-110 where it sits now and will likely sit until puck drop. I suppose we could see a small move toward Boston with 54% of the moneyline tickets coming on the home team, but I don't think it will get as far as -120, even.
The total has been more on the go in all three games, flipping from 6 to 6.5 and back again at many sources. I'm happy with the flat six, as both games in Buffalo have had kind of "flukey" goals, and I'm comfortable with a push if it comes to that. Swayman has been lights out, I'm expecting more of the same tonight.
📈 Sabres vs. Bruins betting trends
| Sabres | Statistic | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| 51-24-9 | W-L record | 46-28-10 |
| 45-39 | ATS record | 57-27 |
| 39-42-3 | O/U record | 43-39-2 |
| 3-1-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
🚑 Sabres vs. Bruins injuries
📺 How to watch Sabres vs. Bruins Game 3
- Date: Thursday, April 23
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: TD Garden (Boston)
- TV: TNT/truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
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