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NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 16: Will Falcons Remain in NFC South Race?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2023 11:51 AM EST • 4 min 20 sec read.

Head coach Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons reacts as we look at our NFL upset picks for Week 16
Head coach Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons reacts during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images via AFP.

Each week, we examine a trio of NFL upset picks that we believe will be profitable, and we offer our top three NFL upset picks for Week 16 based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.

Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season featured a few upsets, as favorites posted a dominant 12-4 record straight-up. The top six moneyline favorites all earned outright victories at the best sports betting apps.

However, one of the top upset picks, the Carolina Panthers overcame inclement weather to defeat the favored Atlanta Falcons, securing their second win of the season.

Despite games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week, all of our upset picks for Week 16 are slated for Sunday.

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and NFL Week 16 player props, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 16 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL upset picks: Week 16

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NFL upset predictions

Falcons vs. Colts (+114 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Following our successful prediction of the Carolina Panthers upsetting the Falcons last week, our focus shifts to supporting a team in dire need of a victory to remain competitive in the NFC South race. This time, we're backing a squad that is determined and hungry for a win, recognizing the critical nature of this game in their pursuit of success within the division.

The game between Atlanta and their opponent saw both teams struggling to gain significant yardage due to adverse weather conditions in North Carolina, with neither team surpassing 283 total yards or achieving over 4.5 yards per play. However, Atlanta faced a crucial setback in the fourth quarter, when turnovers became the decisive factor. They were outscored 6-0 during this period, primarily due to critical mistakes like punting, fumbling, and throwing an interception on their final three possessions, ultimately contributing significantly to their loss.

Though the Falcons enter this game at 6-8, their 6-6 start was their best since 2017, and success should come with taking better care of the football. Atlanta has been a much better home team (4-3) than a road team (2-5) this season, and the Colts could be down two of their best offensive weapons, as Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion) and Zack Moss (shoulder) are both considered questionable.

In addition, the Colts have the second-worst point differential (+1) of any team at least two games over .500, while each of Atlanta’s last six losses have been by one possession.

DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager as the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +110 odds to back the underdogs at the best sportsbooks.

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Browns vs. Texans (+122 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Cleveland Browns are a much more successful home team (7-1) than road team (2-4), but with the way quarterback Joe Flacco is playing, their new multi-dimensional offense will be scary in a domed setting.

Granted, Cleveland was a dropped Hail Mary attempt from losing to the Chicago Bears last week. However, much good came out of that game, like Amari Cooper and David Njoku becoming the first pair of Browns teammates to surpass 100 yards receiving in the same game in a decade (since 2013).

In addition, Flacco’s 939 passing yards are the fifth-most all-time by a quarterback in his first three games with a team. His heroics helped the Browns clinch their second winning season in the last 16 years, and they continue to find ways to win close games, improving to 5-0 in games decided by three or fewer points.

The Houston Texans may be without quarterback C.J. Stroud once again this week, but even if he manages to return, the last time he faced a fierce pass rush, the New York Jets limited him to season-lows in completion percentage (43.5%), yards per attempt (4.0), and QBR (6.5).

Whoever's under center for Houston should get similar treatment from the Browns defense that has held 10 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards this season (the team’s most since 1957), while Myles Garrett’s 21 pass rush wins over the last two weeks are a career-high for any two-game span.

Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back the Browns at odds higher than +120. To get the best odds on a Browns win, use our Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000.

Titans vs. Seahawks (+124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Seattle Seahawks exit a come-from-behind victory on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention with a 19-16 overtime loss to the Texans in which they blew a 13-0 second-quarter lead. Thus, seeing this spread under a field goal has us backing the Titans on primarily speculative reasons, as the line indicates the oddsmakers may know a letdown is coming for Seattle.

The Seahawks are at a disadvantage off short rest and now have to make a cross-country flight to play in the 1 p.m. ET time slot. And perhaps the Titans will benefit from playing a game outside the division, as they are 0-4 against AFC South teams.

However, another reason for optimism from Tennessee is that Seattle managed just 297 total yards against an Eagles defense that entered last week with the ninth-highest yards per attempt and fifth-highest passer rating allowed since Week 9. In addition, the Seahawks let the Eagles snap a six-game streak of being outgained (their longest streak since 2015) and a six-game streak of allowing at least two passing touchdowns. 

There is great value offered at FanDuel, as the next closest competitor (Caesars) offers +118 moneyline odds. However, given Seattle’s high-profile win on national television last week, we expect the line to continue to move in its favor at the best sportsbooks, so we would not put anyone off waiting to see if they can get a better price on the Titans, at the best sports betting sites.

NFL upset picks made 12/19/2023 at 6:44 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.